• Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
  • We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
It's more realistic than MP4 or Kirby 3D doing 10 mil.



What exactly does "done right" mean though? So when they fail to meet the expectation, we can always say it's because the game is not done right?

Zelda is always used as an example on how an old franchise grew exponentially on Switch. However, while there are several positive examples on that, there are also several cases where existing franchise sees modest growth (ex. Luigi's Mansion 3, SMM2). What would make these games behave more like BotW and SMO than LM3 and SMM2?
LM3 will end up with a 100%+ growth over Luigi's Mansion 2 and its 6m units sold. It definitely blew up on Switch.
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,953
Can totally agree with you about things like Mana/SaGa being 3DS titles being a much better fit than mobile. Again, this feeds back into the argument from years ago about Square-Enix shifting away the mid tier of gaming. They learnt their lesson from that, it's just unfortunate that 3DS lost out on that due to it existing during that period (even though it still had plenty of, albeit not enough, support).

I think you're still missing the point about Wii-U and Sony ecosystem. Sony was actively working on tools to make porting between the platforms easier. I'd have to go digging through the old threads on GAF to find it, but I'm fairly sure we saw SCEJ working with devs like Koei-Tecmo/Marvelous on this kind of thing, and that's aside from comments made by Mark Cerny about PS4 & Vita being developed in tandem and supposedly being easy to move titles between. Phyreengine was used in things like DQB/FFX etc. etc.

No amount of "but Wii U could run it" arguments really neuter that point or create any logical fallacy. The distinction is the paragraph above.

Either way, never thought I'd be discussing the merits of Wii-U third party Japanese support in nearly 2021!
I really feel you're overselling things here, PS ecosystem was largely a marketing/licensing approach and not technology/backend. The only real thing Sony had on that front was PhyreEngine and that was even a legacy project going back to PSP/PS3. Sony working with devs on their own proprietary or licensed engines wasn't new or unusual either, Nintendo and MS were (and are) doing that too. "Wii U could run it" is very much a valid counterpoint but the reality was Wii U could run it better and easier than Vita too (look at UE3, MT Framework, Unity, Anvil, Soft engine, etc, etc). There's no real technical feasibility argument to be had in Vita over Wii U, it's more a speculative incentivizing one.

I can agree 3DS' subpar SE software backing comes down to timing too in large part. Even after Bravely and the marked return to mid-tier though they still bizarrely gave 3DS short shirft though, even by comparison to Vita. And really they were't alone in that (Koei Tecmo, Sega, Bandai Namco, Konami, etc). I'd say only the big pub that gave Vita the sort of consideration the platform honestly deserved was probably Capcom.
 

Forkball

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,941
For MP4, Kirby 3D and Pikmin 4 to sell more than 10 mil, it will have to do way better than 100%+ growth.
Kirby: Inhale of the Wild and Metroid Party will easily cross 10 million.

I hope Momotaro's success really does lead to a bizarre new renaissance of party board games. I'm not going to say Sonic Shuffle is underrated, but it's not as bad as you heard.
 

P Diddy

Member
Jul 1, 2020
874
I know people have said this before, but this year was probably the worst year for Dengeki to stop reporting sales numbers, especially with the increased floor for the holidays. With the tracker, we could more definitively say if LM3 is a million seller or how well another low key million seller like Kirby Star Allies is doing.
 

Djehuty

Member
Sep 2, 2020
1,044
For MP4, Kirby 3D and Pikmin 4 to sell more than 10 mil, it will have to do way better than 100%+ growth.
I will respond to that... eventually I'm just waiting for P3DX numbers first, but to make it clear I believe all those franchises have the potential to sell 10mil it doesn't mean I believe they will but that I believe they could.

Kirby 3d is an interesting case however, it has the visibility to be an A tier franchise but it doesn't really do anything. Kirby is the most neutral video game franchise in existence is what I'm trying to say, if it stays the same then the sales will go down a bit, it needs major changes because most people who aren't into Kirby stopped caring about the franchise a long time ago.

Smash bros is a good representation of this, the last time the franchise evolved was a decade ago and that was because Kirby went through some rough years on handhelds prior. The entire series is just disappointing, it's a waste of potential, it could be so much more but it just isn't. well kumazaki has been talking up the next game like it would be a revolutionary title, so to say the least my expectations are high for the next game.

the Kirby series as a whole hasn't grown anything from one game get's removed for another gimmick in the next, and all of the characters were thrown in the trash after their 1 game they were featured in released until star allies came around. Star allies are Kirby's baby steps into a brighter future hopefully.

I really hope the next mainline Kirby get's released in 2022 rather than 2021 so it can be finished on launch at least.

Star allies will probably sell 4mil WW when all is said and done for it but I can't help but be disappointed about it regardless it's almost frustrating to see what HAL has on the tip of their fingers, just for them to make another samey 2d platformer.

well that was a short rant on how Kirby games are being mishandled.
 

Deleted member 10737

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
49,774
I know people have said this before, but this year was probably the worst year for Dengeki to stop reporting sales numbers, especially with the increased floor for the holidays. With the tracker, we could more definitively say if LM3 is a million seller or how well another low key million seller like Kirby Star Allies is doing.
let's just hope famitsu isn't... encouraged to stop sharing numbers as well.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,410
1.5M units sell-through



I guess that Konam is including retail sales from week 52 too, since Media Create probably already sent this data to their subscribers.

When it was 1 million sold through by week 50, it was ~750k retail (famitsu) and digital was estimated to be the rest ~250k.

When week 52 numbers are released we'll know how much the digital part has grown.
 

Kresnik

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,974
I really feel you're overselling things here, PS ecosystem was largely a marketing/licensing approach and not technology/backend. The only real thing Sony had on that front was PhyreEngine and that was even a legacy project going back to PSP/PS3. Sony working with devs on their own proprietary or licensed engines wasn't new or unusual either, Nintendo and MS were (and are) doing that too. "Wii U could run it" is very much a valid counterpoint but the reality was Wii U could run it better and easier than Vita too (look at UE3, MT Framework, Unity, Anvil, Soft engine, etc, etc). There's no real technical feasibility argument to be had in Vita over Wii U, it's more a speculative incentivizing one.

Ultimately, last gen you had about 7 different choices of where to put your Japan-developed software - a lot more than now. I'm going to discount mobile or high-end PS4 because we're talking about Wii-U and Vita, so that sorta leaves 3DS exclusive, PS ecosystem, or any one of PS4 exclusive, Vita exclusive or Wii-U exclusive.

There were barely any of the latter, obviously. Plenty of the former, and even more of the middle option. If you're saying that a Wii-U/PS4 option should've been the better choice for developers than PS3/4/Vita, then I disagree - and plenty of pubs obviously did too.

(PS. Was that the wrong choice? Given how Vita pulled a decent percentage of domestic software sales for those titles, then I don't think it was. I'm not sure Koei-Tecmo missed their 35k Warriors Orochi sales or Bandai Namco their 15k Kamen Rider sales with the sequels they released on Sony ecosystem rather than Wii-U).

I don't get the whole "marketing" point because I don't really recall any games marketing being on the Sony ecosystem? It certainly wasn't in any TVCM's from the time I saw. None of the games were cross-buy, although some were probably cross-save/cross-play - but doesn't that come down to technology/backend which again, wasn't something Nintendo was offering?

Plus, none of those engines you mentioned save for Unity were involved in the games we were talking about.

Either way, I think I will probably make this my last post on this since it's fairly obvious we're not going to see eye to eye (and at the end of the day, Vita got what it got and Wii-U got what it got for reasons that both you and I can only speculate on... so it's a bit of a moot point). Plus, we haven't mentioned Harada, Kondo, Nagoshi or Monster Hunter in like 6 posts so I'm sure the thread is getting sick of us too ;)



To bring it back on topic, I will talk about the new hot button issue in Media Create threads, which is how well Momotaro is doing. Legitimately did not think it would keep shooting up by such big amounts with each new update, really is spectacular.
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Holiday season ends at Sunday and Japan still waits for a sizable PS5 shipment.
 
Dec 21, 2020
5,070
Wii Party and Mario Party DS? BTFO, true ruler of the genre (in japan) has entered the scene!

Lifetime, I think Electric Railway will do 3.1M
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,953
Ultimately, last gen you had about 7 different choices of where to put your Japan-developed software - a lot more than now. I'm going to discount mobile or high-end PS4 because we're talking about Wii-U and Vita, so that sorta leaves 3DS exclusive, PS ecosystem, or any one of PS4 exclusive, Vita exclusive or Wii-U exclusive.

There were barely any of the latter, obviously. Plenty of the former, and even more of the middle option. If you're saying that a Wii-U/PS4 option should've been the better choice for developers than PS3/4/Vita, then I disagree - and plenty of pubs obviously did too.

(PS. Was that the wrong choice? Given how Vita pulled a decent percentage of domestic software sales for those titles, then I don't think it was. I'm not sure Koei-Tecmo missed their 35k Warriors Orochi sales or Bandai Namco their 15k Kamen Rider sales with the sequels they released on Sony ecosystem rather than Wii-U).

I don't get the whole "marketing" point because I don't really recall any games marketing being on the Sony ecosystem? It certainly wasn't in any TVCM's from the time I saw. None of the games were cross-buy, although some were probably cross-save/cross-play - but doesn't that come down to technology/backend which again, wasn't something Nintendo was offering?

Plus, none of those engines you mentioned save for Unity were involved in the games we were talking about.

Either way, I think I will probably make this my last post on this since it's fairly obvious we're not going to see eye to eye (and at the end of the day, Vita got what it got and Wii-U got what it got for reasons that both you and I can only speculate on... so it's a bit of a moot point). Plus, we haven't mentioned Harada, Kondo, Nagoshi or Monster Hunter in like 6 posts so I'm sure the thread is getting sick of us too ;)

To bring it back on topic, I will talk about the new hot button issue in Media Create threads, which is how well Momotaro is doing. Legitimately did not think it would keep shooting up by such big amounts with each new update, really is spectacular.
I think maybe where we're missing each other is on this point: I don't think Wii U got less than it deserved at all. It had some good early commitments and when it was clear the platform was headed nowhere things mostly stopped there. Wii U's support was entirely warranted based on how the system performed.

My issues are with Vita and 3DS, one punched exceedingly well above it's weight while the other really didn't get the sort of backing it warranted at all generally. Sure there were exceptions (Capcom, Atlus, Level 5, etc) but for the most part that's how it seemed to go. And yes, a lot of that came down to the PS ecosystem push, but that push also wasn't really driven by technology/tools either (how could they be, there's like 2.5 gens in spec between Vita to PS4). If anything that push comes more back to the thinking of some of those luminaries you also mentioned. ;)

Marketing's more than cross-buy (which Nintendo also offered across 3DS/Wii U btw, as well as engine/tool compat like NWF (3DS/U/mobile) or actually NWare (now Bezel) which runs on Wii/3DS/U/Switch even). Marketing also extends to incentive deals, promo support, dev relations, press and a whole host of other areas. The "PS ecosystem" was more a concept based in contracts in that sense than a technology based framework, Sony didn't give all devs an "export to Vita" button on their kits or something like that. For tools you could use Phyre for easier cross-dev but that's just an engine and again both their competitors offered their own alternatives too.
 

Mbolibombo

Member
Oct 29, 2017
7,043
We've just seen Tropical Freeze failing to do that though. At this point, DKCRs sales seem like a one off due to nostalgia, and not something sustainable for Donkey Kong 2d platformers.

While I dont think DKC6 would sell 10M, Tropical Freeze still sold 5M+ between the Wii U and Switch. And a brand new entry would probably land close to Returns than Tropical Freeze
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,463
We've just seen Tropical Freeze failing to do that though. At this point, DKCRs sales seem like a one off due to nostalgia, and not something sustainable for Donkey Kong 2d platformers.
We haven't seen DK with the chance to.

It had a Wii U game delayed out of the holiday season and a Switch game that was pretty poor value compared to the other Wii U ports in terms of additions.

Unlike 3D Kirby, or MP4, or whatever else was discussed, DK (2D or 3D) at least has the blueprint and template to be near the 8-10m range based on history and the current market. I think 7-8 would be a target for a 2d one, and a 3d one could do 10m if it was really good.
Like other NSW franchises, a new mainline entry would be the best way to assess where its at. It's done ~3m on switch which is good.

likewise, you also wouldn't say the new ceiling for 2D mario is ~10m based on NSMBUDX
 

Garlic

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,687
Also Donkey Kong is in another league when it comes to name recognition compared to some of the other game franchises (he's up there with Mario and Pokemon). I have no doubt a new quality DK game with proper support will do gangbusters on switch.
 

NeonZ

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 28, 2017
9,395
The Switch's userbase is much bigger than the Wii U's though. I just don't think a better looking DKCTF somehow would sell much better than TF itself. It'd need to be something else.

That said, I do agree that Metroid Prime 4 and 3d Kirby aren't reaching that level either.

likewise, you also wouldn't say the new ceiling for 2D mario is ~10m based on NSMBUDX
I do think that's about the ceiling for a new "NSMB" game that kept all the visual and branding of the previous NSMB games rather than actually looking like something new. Mario Kart's sales certainly point to being a Wii U "port" not really being a black mark that would sour potential costumers.
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Switch's userbase is much bigger than the Wii U's though. I just don't think a better looking DKCTF somehow would sell much better than TF itself. It'd need to be something else.
Age of Calamity just came out and its sales are nothing comparable to the Hyrule Warriors Wii U port.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,463
The Switch's userbase is much bigger than the Wii U's though. I just don't think a better looking DKCTF somehow would sell much better than TF itself. It'd need to be something else.

That said, I do agree that Metroid Prime 4 and 3d Kirby aren't reaching that level either.


I do think that's about the ceiling for a new "NSMB" game that kept all the visual and branding of the previous NSMB games rather than actually looking like something new. Mario Kart's sales certainly point to being a Wii U "port" not really being a black mark that would sour potential costumers.
Well a new 2D DK would be a new 2D DK. It wouldn't be TF part 2 because it's unlikely Nintendo would do that approach 7-9 years later for a big budget title.
It'd have a new sell, new gimmick, or whatever. A new "something else". So that part is understood.


wrong on 2D Mario. NSMBUDX is doing 10m despite being a heavily bundled Wii U game that was recieved well enough, but far from a critical or hardcore fan darling.
a new "NSMB" would've outdone NSMBUDX obviously.
and a new 2D Mario with new branding that looked amazing would be back in the 20-30m range.

the sales of NSMBUDX (that had to compete w/ Mario Maker 2 5 months later) show exactly that imo.
2D Mario demand hasn't changed like some thought.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,463
re: MK8

People seem to forget Mario Kart 8 DX is not only just a "Mario Kart" port

It's a package with all the DLC for a wii u game still selling near full price and a new battle mode.
and an increase in resolution to 1080p
and 2 player is still 60fps whereas 2p on Wii U cut to 30 iirc

it's one of the better Wii U ports in terms of content.
It's nothing like DK:TF level or other games that barely got anything for full price.
 

P Diddy

Member
Jul 1, 2020
874
re: MK8

People seem to forget Mario Kart 8 DX is not only just a "Mario Kart" port

It's a package with all the DLC for a wii u game still selling near full price and a new battle mode.
and an increase in resolution to 1080p
and 2 player is still 60fps whereas 2p on Wii U cut to 30 iirc

it's one of the better Wii U ports in terms of content. (maybe the best?)
It's nothing like DK:TF level or other games that barely got anything for full price.
Also, most people will buy a mario kart game with a nintendo console regardless if it is new or an enhanced port. The battle mode point is key too; it was a large part of the advertising.
 
Dec 21, 2020
5,070
I think it is difficult to really say on MP4 at the current time when they haven't really shown such a game in gameplay, what it will have and do different (if at all), and we don't know how the general gaming sphere would react to it for those within the Nintendo gaming sphere, the expanded PlayStation and Xbox gaming spheres and even further out the PC gaming spheres that would generate hype, get lukewarm reception or be generally unfavorable by the audience, how it will be marketed, for how long, when it will be shown, and a couple other factors.

We don't even know if it will be a cross gen title that gets best showcase on NS2

Really saying MP4 has no or little chance to do 10 million or even 8 million with little information on how it will pan out seems to be like writing it off as almost dead or no success story.

Only thing we have now is that it has a Title and behind the scenes hiring that is public and reported frequently.
 

Gartooth

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,440
I think Nintendo did make misteps on the big DKC revival attempt. Returns was one of the biggest success stories on the Wii from 1st party productions not named after Mario or in the "Wii" series. It outsold even City Folk and Skyward Sword.

However when it came time for Tropical Freeze, instead of being put in the holiday slot where Returns did incredibly well, Nintendo put it in a dead end February slot just to have a game that filled the gap between 3DW and MK8. What's worse is that the more successful platform of that generation in the 3DS, did not get an original Donkey Kong game and settled for a port of Returns. Whereas pretty much every top performing franchise of the prior generation did get a new entry on 3DS.

Ideally they would have a plan to take another swing at the series with the Universal ride coming in a few years, but many of their external partners appear to be too busy for it.
 
Last edited:
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
A full priced Wii U port with small updates will sell 4-5m on Switch, Donkey Kong IP isn't as small as you may think.

NSMBUDX isn't stopping at 10m either, it will be close to that number by the end of March.
 

Goldenh

Member
Feb 9, 2020
1,387
I really want Nintendo to make a new Mario or DK 2D game, an ambitious one. I really look forward to the next Kirby game, hopefully it's a new turn for Kirby as a franchise since the one on Switch really was just one of too many and the sales shows.

For 2021, i have no doubt there will be a price cut now. There would have been one in 2020 without covid. They especially need it if they release a revision. No way Nintendo will release a 400$ sku, this is not the market they will target especially not mid gen. I do think there is a LOT of potential buyers once the price for the OG go down and another big market for a revision. People love the console, they will want to spend on the system for sure. Even the not advertised 2.0 battery Switch gave a boost in the middle of July.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,463
I think Nintendo did make misteps on the big DKC revival attempt. Returns was one of the biggest success stories on the Wii from 1st party productions not named after Mario or in the "Wii" series. It outsold even City Folk and Skyward Sword.

However when it came time for Tropical Freeze, instead of being put in the holiday slot where Returns did incredibly well, Nintendo put it in a dead end February slot just to have a game that filled the gap between 3DW and MK8. What's worse is that the more successful platform of that generation in the 3DS, did not get an original Donkey Kong game and settled for a port of Returns. Whereas pretty much every top performing franchise of the prior generation did get a new entry on 3DS.

Ideally they would have a plan to take another swing at the series with the Universal ride coming in a few years, but many of their external partners are too busy for it.
wonder if being close to November with 3DW originally was the best slot anyway.
What was the original release date for TF again? December?
 

JoshuaJSlone

Member
Dec 27, 2017
715
Indiana
With Furukawa explicitly saying they want the Switch to have a longer than normal life cycle, don't expect one in 2023.
Everyone always says their current machine is going to have an extra long life. Also, successor also doesn't mean insta-death for a current machine. Especially now that they don't have a "home / portable" type split, continuing to put lower end games on the older machine which sells as the budget option could be the next thing.
Is splatoon or odyssey sequels expected?
Considering there's consistently been a new home 3D Mario every 3-4 years since Galaxy (2007, 2010, 2014, 2017), if there's not something like Odyssey 2 next year it's running late.
It will be really hard for the switch to match it's US numbers next year, it has sold incredibly well. Also the big wildcard for Japan is the release of MHR which won't have nearly the same impact WW.
It's hard to make any very good prediction on 2021 when there's so much unknown and Nintendo has proven they're willing to announce major releases the same month they ship. 2021 could be hot or could be crap. I wouldn't make a bet either way.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,463
Everyone always says their current machine is going to have an extra long life. Also, successor also doesn't mean insta-death for a current machine. Especially now that they don't have a "home / portable" type split, continuing to put lower end games on the older machine which sells as the budget option could be the next thing.

Considering there's consistently been a new home 3D Mario every 3-4 years since Galaxy (2007, 2010, 2014, 2017), if there's not something like Odyssey 2 next year it's running late.

It's hard to make any very good prediction on 2021 when there's so much unknown and Nintendo has proven they're willing to announce major releases the same month they ship. 2021 could be hot or could be crap. I wouldn't make a bet either way.
3d world was 2013
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
The train ride never ends
Nothing stop the Hudson's train.

hNJHyGN.gif
 

dxspace

Member
Oct 25, 2017
225
the running in front of the train gave an anxiety spike for a split second, then I saw how incredibly small it is. And she called it over.

Now what in tarnation is this gif? lol

I feel like no context will ever satisfy this 💀
It literally is Hudson's train, lol. From this video about Hudson's HQ:

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
the running in front of the train gave an anxiety spike for a split second, then I saw how incredibly small it is. And she called it over.

Now what in tarnation is this gif? lol

I feel like no context will ever satisfy this 💀

Before Konami bought Hudson Soft, they were kind of like Nintendo, consoles, strong IP, etc. This train is from their Sapporo office IIRC.
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
To give less anxiety to MC fellows:
XuK6MpO.gif


the running in front of the train gave an anxiety spike for a split second, then I saw how incredibly small it is. And she called it over.

Now what in tarnation is this gif? lol

I feel like no context will ever satisfy this 💀
The weird guy on the train is Danjuro Kabuki (popular character from Tengai Makyo) while the girl is Honey aka Pink Bombergirl (from Bomberman duh).
The footage was taken from a Hudson Soft promotional video.
The reason why Momotaro Dentetsu is based on trains or that the company name and the CPU in the PC Engine reference a train model was that the president loved trains.
Hudson Soft was a funny little company.
 
Last edited:

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,206
I know people have said this before, but this year was probably the worst year for Dengeki to stop reporting sales numbers, especially with the increased floor for the holidays. With the tracker, we could more definitively say if LM3 is a million seller or how well another low key million seller like Kirby Star Allies is doing.
Luigi's Mansion 3 won't be a million seller for years with just physical. It's already passed or close with digital. Last known Famitsu data is in the 700ks.
 

P Diddy

Member
Jul 1, 2020
874
Luigi's Mansion 3 won't be a million seller for years with just physical. It's already passed or close with digital. Last known Famitsu data is in the 700ks.
That's what I meant. I would like to have some confirmation that it is at a million with digital based on physical numbers.
 

Djehuty

Member
Sep 2, 2020
1,044
While this isn't what I originally wrote in my regards to Kirby, Metroid, Donkey Kong and Pikmin hitting 10mil I will just post for the time being

In the case of DK they have done it before and they can do it again, Tropical Freeze didn't do as well as it could've because it was a port with lackluster new features. And before anyone says "but it's new to the majority of consumers" people aren't stupid, it's pretty easy to tell if a game is old, "New funky mode" and "Brand new features" are pretty telling of a port and regardless of if they played it before most won't get it because it's still an old yet 80 dollar (CAD) game. Most would rather wait for a new one but some will still get it because they haven't played it before, this can help the visibility of the franchise even if it's just a modest increase in sales. DK6 just need's to keep up the streak of quality that returns and Tropical freeze have started and continued, if it does that I see no reason why it couldn't reach 10mil.

Kirby, well I have a gigantic rant on this series missteps and missed opportunity's, while it hasn't made many mistakes (recently) it never took chances, which is why the growth to star allies is so pitiful. The series has the visibility to achieve 10 or even 20 million sellers the only problem is that Kirby isn't known for his games. people already dismissed the franchise and it has recently been seen as stale, an image which HAL has done nothing to change. 3d Kirby is really the only way I see people coming back to the franchise as another 2d platformer would be disappointing. Another problem that was fixed somewhat in star allies was that everything new HAL introduced was thrown in the trash for the next game, the games were never allowed to grow upon each others back or it least evolve or iterate in some from because any improvements were removed the next Time around. The series also made most of it's characters one and dones, they were brought back in star allies in updates but nobody cared, the game already launched with barely any content and most who were disappointed in the game probably wouldn't come back because of updates, it was to little to late. Star allies's sales are still good but they reek of missed potential, it was one of Nintendo's premier franchise but a 1-2 mil increase was all it could do. Change is really the only way forward for the series and Kumazaki has acknowledged this, he want's the next game to be the best one so far. I can see Kirby hitting 10mil but it would require bringing back an audience that gave up on it, Kirby is arguably one of Nintendo's or even gaming's most iconic characters but the sales of his games don't reflect that at all.

Metroid could do it as well but it would sell more on WoM since it's a more hardcore franchise. as long as the game is great it should be able to leg it's way to 10mil if it isn't then I don't see much future for the franchise. By all means MP4 is a make or break moment and a gigantic gamble on Nintendo's part, Regardless of how it look's MP4 will have at least spent 7 years in development and games on the scale of MP1 aren't cheap to make anymore, it has to be great for it to succeed and for the future of the franchise to be safe for the time being. MPT would be a great way to introduce the switch audience to the franchise and give more momentum to MP4.

And for Pikmin, well my only reason why I say this is because it never had a chance to begin with, the franchise only released on Nintendo's biggest failures and yet it has managed to stay a consistent million seller, it may as well be a new ip as the franchise has never been on a successful console before. Pikmin 3DX is probably the port with the biggest marketing behind it (besides the Mario ones) I'm cautiously hoping for 3mil but I wouldn't be complete surprised if it either went below that or above that. Regardless Pikmin 4 should at least double whatever Pikmin 3DX will do, and Pikmin is the type of franchise to have stronger leg's it will probably be floating below the charts but it still should be consistently selling, not to mention it was one of this years big holiday title from Nintendo.
since it's entirely new to the general public it should have a bigger second life than other ports like DKCTF(featuring New Funky Mode); WoM will be important for 3DX to sell but WoM is good as expected. with 3DX having positive WoM it is important for 4 to continue this momentum as the franchise is still in getting many newcomers to the series more so than any other port has, it's future is bright if the cards are played right, 3DX should be a hidden evergreen (kind of like star allies and Clubhouse games) if so it will most likely attain a sizeable amount of it's sales through legs. What I would do is continue marketing Pikmin 3 through 2021 until Pikmin 4 is announced in 2021, Pikmin 4 should then be a game in 2022 and release in a more empty time of the year and take most of the spotlight as it wouldn't be able to stand up to many bigger franchises. The franchise having space to grow is important so new people who otherwise would buy a different game otherwise will get Pikmin 4.
 

Goldenh

Member
Feb 9, 2020
1,387
I don't think there will be a new DKC game anytime soon as Retro is full force on Metroid now. I do think the game could do potentially well, but it would release at the end of Switch's life cycle at the earliest which isn't prime for a 10 million seller.

Kirby def needs the change. It's one of the only franchises that could have gotten a boost from Switch and still didn't get anything. It is super well known and repected, even more since SSBU, so a good, fresh 3D Kirby game could be a big hit. I don't think it needs to hit 10 millions tho. Feels like Switch software sell so well that we think a franchise need that much to be successful. A 3D Kirby game would be successful even doing like 6-7 millions which would double or triple most of the other games on the franchise. Same thing for MP4. Nintendo is betting a lot on it but they also bet a lot on Zelda Botw and needed what 2 millions to break even ? Metroid will be fresh and will attract a new audience, i'm sure that if it's great it will perform really well. Hopefully it doesn't get overshadowed by the next Halo or Mass Effect games.

By the way, i haven't seen it anywhere but Nintendo just surpassed their highest stock like ever...