Saicho

Member
Oct 27, 2017
669
Jump Force was 18 months and with Kakarot we are currently at 11.

If it took them 18 months to port Jump Force to Switch as this mess, maybe Bamco should take even more time to port their games to ensure better quality.

Itadaki Street PS5 gonna do gangbusters. =P

Demand for Itadaki Street on PS5 is stronger than Doraemon Story of Seasons on PS4!

Hm, I'm gonna guess that next year will be 70k average for the 43 weeks, and it'll get close to 5 million in Japan when you factor in the total 52 weeks. It will be a decline from this year, but still respectable.

Edit: I'm gonna add a variance of 500k, so 4.75M as the low bar, and 5.25M as the high bar

This sounds reasonable.
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
25,002
Birth by Sleep wasn't available digitally. I assume you couldn't get it through UMD passport either.



I feel like this comes back to our Minecraft discussion the other day and your understanding of development pipelines. Vita got the Square-Enix games it got because Sony provided them a worldwide market with PS4 and tools to make the job easier between PS3/PS4/Vita. That wasn't possible on Wii-U (nor would it have been worthwhile even it it was), and it certainly wasn't possible on 3DS.

That's why 3DS got bespoke titles like Bravely, DQVII, FF Explorers etc., while Vita got Army Corps of Hell as the sum of its exclusive efforts from SE, lol.

I'd also point out that Adventures of Mana was a mobile game first and foremost that they stuck on Vita because it had unity support, again something 3DS didn't offer (they also did this with Rise of Mana, Deadman's Cross etc.). SaGa is the only real outlier here, and I would agree with you that it would've likely sold better as a ground-up 3DS title.
It's not a misunderstanding of pipelines, I even pointed out Mana being a Unity title (n3DS had Unity support). It's about misplaced priorities and using the Unity based Mana or SaGa as examples of titles that would likely have been better served being ground up 3DS games and then ported from there to mobile or wherever made sense. As was done for Theatrythm FF or DQVII for example.

Your Wii U comment also underscores the logical fallacy in supporting a platform like Vita but not a not a platform like Wii U when it also supported modern engines and tools (more of them too and to a greater extent in cases like UE3) and both underperformed similarly globally. This again goes back to that same Minecraft impasse; every argument made in favor of Vita also basically applies to Wii U and every argument against Wii U also basically applies to Vita. The most notable distinction between these consoles is the name of the maker.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
It's not a misunderstanding of pipelines, I even pointed out Mana being a Unity title (n3DS had Unity support). It's about misplaced priorities and using the Unity based Mana or SaGa as examples of titles that would likely have been better served being ground up 3DS games and then ported from there to mobile or wherever made sense. As was done for Theatrythm FF or DQVII for example.

Your Wii U comment also underscores the logical fallacy in supporting a platform like Vita but not a not a platform like Wii U when it also supported modern engines and tools (more of them too and to a greater extent in cases like UE3) and both underperformed similarly globally. This again goes back to that same Minecraft impasse; every argument made in favor of Vita also basically applies to Wii U and every argument against Wii U also basically applies to Vita. The most notable distinction between these consoles is the name of the maker.

Third party software performed better on Vita than Wii U to be fair, not that I think Wii U was really given a fair shot.
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
25,002
Third party software performed better on Vita than Wii U to be fair, not that I think Wii U was really given a fair shot.
I mean, DQX did relatively well on Wii U. Far better than the average SE Japan Vita title and as their lone Wii U title that's all we really have to go on.

Wii U's more beside the point, I think SE's level of support there was warranted. Their level of support for Vita (and 3DS) weren't though, that's the real central thing here.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
One of the things I am most curious about is why Final Fantasy X HD sold about the same on PS3 and Vita (~300k) despite the former getting new mainline titles before and overal 4 times better than FFXII HD on PS4 (~150k).

I wonder how big the Final Fantasy audience potentially is on handhelds. Dissidia and Crisis Core were selling around 1m on the PSP in Japan after all.
 
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fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
25,002
One of the things I am most curious about is why Final Fantasy X HD sold about the same on PS3 and Vita (~300k) despite the former getting new mainline titles before and overal 4 times better than FFXII HD on PS4 (~150k).

I wonder how big the Final Fantasy audience potentially is on handhelds. Dissidia and Crisis Core were selling around 1m on the PSP in Japan after all.
FF3 DS also did 1m. If FFIV hadn't had multiple rereleases right beforehand I wonder if FFIV DS would have too.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
I mean, DQX did relatively well on Wii U. Far better than the average SE Japan Vita title and as their lone Wii U title that's all we really have to go on.

Wii U's more beside the point, I think SE's level of support there was warranted. Their level of support for Vita (and 3DS) weren't though, that's the real central thing here.

Oh I agree in general, Vita pushed way above its weight in regards to most publisher's support.

FF3 DS also did 1m. If FFIV hadn't had multiple rereleases right beforehand I wonder if FFIV DS would have too.

Type-Zero and Crisis Core both sold REALLY well as well.
 

Kresnik

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,975
It's not a misunderstanding of pipelines, I even pointed out Mana being a Unity title (n3DS had Unity support). It's about misplaced priorities and using the Unity based Mana or SaGa as examples of titles that would likely have been better served being ground up 3DS games and then ported from there to mobile or wherever made sense. As was done for Theatrythm FF or DQVII for example.

Your Wii U comment also underscores the logical fallacy in supporting a platform like Vita but not a not a platform like Wii U when it also supported modern engines and tools (more of them too and to a greater extent in cases like UE3) and both underperformed similarly globally. This again goes back to that same Minecraft impasse; every argument made in favor of Vita also basically applies to Wii U and every argument against Wii U also basically applies to Vita. The most notable distinction between these consoles is the name of the maker.

Can totally agree with you about things like Mana/SaGa being 3DS titles being a much better fit than mobile. Again, this feeds back into the argument from years ago about Square-Enix shifting away the mid tier of gaming. They learnt their lesson from that, it's just unfortunate that 3DS lost out on that due to it existing during that period (even though it still had plenty of, albeit not enough, support).

I think you're still missing the point about Wii-U and Sony ecosystem. Sony was actively working on tools to make porting between the platforms easier. I'd have to go digging through the old threads on GAF to find it, but I'm fairly sure we saw SCEJ working with devs like Koei-Tecmo/Marvelous on this kind of thing, and that's aside from comments made by Mark Cerny about PS4 & Vita being developed in tandem and supposedly being easy to move titles between. Phyreengine was used in things like DQB/FFX etc. etc.

No amount of "but Wii U could run it" arguments really neuter that point or create any logical fallacy. The distinction is the paragraph above.

Either way, never thought I'd be discussing the merits of Wii-U third party Japanese support in nearly 2021!
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
Can totally agree with you about things like Mana/SaGa being 3DS titles being a much better fit than mobile. Again, this feeds back into the argument from years ago about Square-Enix shifting away the mid tier of gaming. They learnt their lesson from that, it's just unfortunate that 3DS lost out on that due to it existing during that period (even though it still had plenty of, albeit not enough, support).

I think you're still missing the point about Wii-U and Sony ecosystem. Sony was actively working on tools to make porting between the platforms easier. I'd have to go digging through the old threads on GAF to find it, but I'm fairly sure we saw SCEJ working with devs like Koei-Tecmo/Marvelous on this kind of thing, and that's aside from comments made by Mark Cerny about PS4 & Vita being developed in tandem and supposedly being easy to move titles between. Phyreengine was used in things like DQB/FFX etc. etc.

No amount of "but Wii U could run it" arguments really neuter that point or create any logical fallacy. The distinction is the paragraph above.

Either way, never thought I'd be discussing the merits of Wii-U third party Japanese support in nearly 2021!

It's weird that the game to teach them that lesson was Bravely Default on the 3DS and they did a crappy job following it up...
 

Saicho

Member
Oct 27, 2017
669
6 million for P3DX and 10 million for Pikmin 4 is another example of expectations in this thread being totally unrealistic. Try dividing those numbers by 2 to get an actual realistic estimate

It's more realistic than MP4 or Kirby 3D doing 10 mil.

That's what I'm saying, if a game is good it will sell, the switch is giving a second life to every Nintendo franchises, data from the past is useless now, almost everygame is breaking some kind of record for their franchise and I feel DCK 6, MP4, Pikmin 4 and Kirby 3d can all become 10mil sellers if done right.

Edit: and yeah Botw2's Day 1 opening will make Smash's opening look tiny in comparison I think it could sell 65% of it's sales in the first 3 day's alone.

What exactly does "done right" mean though? So when they fail to meet the expectation, we can always say it's because the game is not done right?

Zelda is always used as an example on how an old franchise grew exponentially on Switch. However, while there are several positive examples on that, there are also several cases where existing franchise sees modest growth (ex. Luigi's Mansion 3, SMM2). What would make these games behave more like BotW and SMO than LM3 and SMM2?
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
It will be really hard for the switch to match it's US numbers next year, it has sold incredibly well. Also the big wildcard for Japan is the release of MHR which won't have nearly the same impact WW.

3 or 4 months in the US were relatively low, I think January February and I think May and June. Some of that was due to demand before ACNH and COVID but some of it was because of very low supply. Which is a problem that should be fixed for all of next year.

A more powerful revision plus stuff like BotW 2 can definitely drive demand in the US. Not to mention a potential price cut on the older models.

But I think the main thing that will help globally will be all of the other emerging markets like China and Brazil. Those will see more demand and ideally more stock next year too.
 

AquaWateria

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,533
It's more realistic than MP4 or Kirby 3D doing 10 mil.



What exactly does "done right" mean though? So when they fail to meet the expectation, we can always say it's because the game is not done right?

Zelda is always used as an example on how an old franchise grew exponentially on Switch. However, while there are several positive examples on that, there are also several cases where existing franchise sees modest growth (ex. Luigi's Mansion 3, SMM2). What would make these games behave more like BotW and SMO than LM3 and SMM2?

Donkey Kong actually has a good chance though. If we got by games one of them was nearly a 9 million seller on the Wii. There is definitely a potential for it to sell upwards of 10 million. Not saying it will happen, but there is a good potential.
 

P Diddy

Member
Jul 1, 2020
874
The 1.5mil was shipped+digital right? I think they will announce it during week 1. I feel week 52 will be roughly 1.8mil-1.9mil ship+digital or maybe.... Higher lol
Yes; my theory is that Momotaro will probably around 1.3 million next week, retail only. 90% sell-through gives us 1.44 million shipments to retail, with digital making up the rest of the gap.
 

Dekuman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,055
3DS seems weirly cursed. It sat in that transition period where I feel like boardrooms felt they were not returning good value to shareholders if they didn't put everything on mobile, or a Sony device because the narrative at the time was , Wii fad was over and mobile was eating Nintendo's lunch.

It's funny that some years on, the narrative has shifted and people can clearly see the difference between mobile and console gaming and SE spent all of this generation targeting all the games 3DS missed plus everything that would have gone to an equivalent Sony device onto the Switch instead with PS4 added as an aftertrhought.
 
Oct 26, 2017
13,669
They followed it up directly by forming Tokyo RPG Factory to make games on, uh... about everything except 3DS.
To be fair, TRPGF's problems are far beyond their platform selections.

All three of their games have been amazingly mediocre. It's baffling. Frankly they should be moved to be purely a support studio, since I think that's all they'd be good for. Three games to make something stand out, but even Oninaki, from the director of Chrono Trigger, was like... nothing.

It's not even junk food. Junk food is at least something not filling but you still really like the taste of and want it often. Their games just come across as being... bland and not even worth trying. There's a bit of potential, but they're never seemingly able to take any further step towards realizing it. I don't know why. Lack of talent in the majority of the studio? Maybe they're like C-tier "talent" that just never really do more to shine. It's really sad.
 

AquaWateria

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,533
To be fair, TRPGF's problems are far beyond their platform selections.

All three of their games have been amazingly mediocre. It's baffling. Frankly they should be moved to be purely a support studio, since I think that's all they'd be good for. Three games to make something stand out, but even Oninaki, from the director of Chrono Trigger, was like... nothing.

It's not even junk food. Junk food is at least something not filling but you still really like the taste of and want it often. Their games just come across as being... bland and not even worth trying. There's a bit of potential, but they're never seemingly able to take any further step towards realizing it. I don't know why. Lack of talent in the majority of the studio? Maybe they're like C-tier "talent" that just never really do more to shine. It's really sad.

I think one of the biggest problems is that you can tell that their games lack budget when compared to games like Bravely Default and Octopath.
 

Fludd

Banned
Nov 6, 2019
137
It feels like previous Square Enix is current Bandai Namco, they want to make big games for big boys consoles only, makes them feel more premium with shiny graphics/presentation and thus targeting the West.
I mean, you just like to look at Tales of Arise, it's obvious they want to interest the USA and judging by the reaction, they succeeded because a lot of people who don't like "anime" were now looking for this.
But then Persona 5 was a WW success so lol
Monster Hunter World really set a precedent when it comes to sacrificing a part of the Japanese market to make an AAA title that focuses on the west first and foremost. I mean, who wouldn't want to go for 10+ million sales like that? Capcom successfully found Western Eldorado and now other Japanese companies want a piece of that pie, even if it ends up costing them some Japanese sales and a better presence on the Switch.
 

MANUELF

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,241
Monster Hunter World really set a precedent when it comes to sacrificing a part of the Japanese market to make an AAA title that focuses on the west first and foremost. I mean, who wouldn't want to go for 10+ million sales like that? Capcom successfully found Western Eldorado and now other Japanese companies want a piece of that pie, even if it ends up costing them some Japanese sales and a better presence on the Switch.
Im not sure MHW2 can repeat MHW numbers, Iceborne attach rate in the west is low but maybe they can keep half of World western sales
 

zroid

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
5,785
Canada
before I continue typing is there a text limit?
531240091025145877.png
 

NeonZ

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 28, 2017
9,411
Donkey Kong actually has a good chance though. If we got by games one of them was nearly a 9 million seller on the Wii. There is definitely a potential for it to sell upwards of 10 million. Not saying it will happen, but there is a good potential.
We've just seen Tropical Freeze failing to do that though. At this point, DKCRs sales seem like a one off due to nostalgia, and not something sustainable for Donkey Kong 2d platformers.
 

Djehuty

Member
Sep 2, 2020
1,044
May i also ask when the next quarter report is coming out for Nintendo? sometime in January maybe?
 
Dec 21, 2020
5,073
If you see Pikmin as a good streaming game, a streamer that likes it may be the type of WoM that gets it more popular in the US at least.
 
Nov 2, 2017
385
That Train is going to surpass Super Mario Party sales in the first month of 2021.
We will soon have a new king in the genre! (?)
Konami did amazing in the 2020.
 

MysticGon

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 31, 2017
7,285
I'm glad the days of surprise million-sellers are not over.

It'd be nice to see some random ASW fighter or Musou game get there this gen.
 

Joxer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
212
It's steaming ahead of Super Mario Party.

I wonder where it will be at the end of it's tracking period.
 

Man God

Member
Oct 25, 2017
38,417
To go back to SE for a moment, they basically paused almost all internal development to work on FF XIV and pretty much all those games post DDD were outsourced heavily.