PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - timing and specification

[tapedeck]

I'm not so sure, One brand has turned around some in their big markets and all the talk we hear from execs and leads make me think MS will put greater emphasis on platform continuity rather than go all in on a generational reset. There's a risk to both approaches.

I'm really expecting it to be more "Xbox One X2" than "Xbox 4", even if they drop One from the name.

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The 'One' brand has turned around somewhat yes but that certainly doesn't mean they should keep it..overall it's a down trend for Xbox and thankfully they were able to stop the bleeding.

Also Phil Spencer has been pretty clear that Scorpio was a unique situation and he doesn't view continuous incremental upgrades in the console space as good for the manufacturer or the consumer. Unless there's some recent news I'm unaware of I think Phil wants to stick to 'traditional gen'..(at least from a marketing perspective, I'm not gonna get into what I actually think will be in the box, who knows). I would absolutely shocked if the 1X wasn't the end of the 'One' branding.

 

[Rex1157]

So does anyone think that the two consoles will launch at around the same time or will One launch first and get outspecced by another launching a year later?

 

[anexanhume]

So does anyone think that the two consoles will launch at around the same time or will One launch first and get outspecced by another launching a year later?

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Yes. I think they're both planning consoles that can be flexible in launch date so as to not be caught flat-footed. A similar launch to 2013 seems highly likely.

 

[Deleted member 34239]

PS5: fall/holiday 2019, clean break new gen, 12TF+, $399 (base) $599 (w/VR)

Next Xbox: fall/holiday 2020, blurred gen might still retain XBO branding, 16TF+, $499.99

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This post is really not based in reality at all. I feel like there should be a minimum level of technical knowledge required to participate in this thread.

 

[Kyoufu]

This post is really not based in reality at all. I feel like there should be a minimum level of technical knowledge required to participate in this thread.

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I think anyone should be able to partake in this discussion regardless of their technical knowledge or lack thereof. If you think a prediction is crazy or farfetched then point it out. No need to be this anal tbh.

 

[Silencerx98]

This post is really not based in reality at all. I feel like there should be a minimum level of technical knowledge required to participate in this thread.

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Oh, sure, let's do this, but I can count with my fingers how many would actually qualify for an acceptable bar

Edit: In case it wasn't obvious, I was being sarcastic about "let's do this"

 

[fiendcode]

This post is really not based in reality at all. I feel like there should be a minimum level of technical knowledge required to participate in this thread.

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I think there should be a minimum level of courtesy and good faith to participate in this thread.

 

[Expy]

They've had 6 years to be ready, assuming PS5 launches in 2019.

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They just released Xbox One X.

Sony having released PS4 first had automatically put them ahead of planning for the next non-mid-gen console.

 

[Akabeko]

Cheers anexanhume. Great finds.

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From what I remember, Kaveri was inches from being cancelled at one point. Simulations for Steamroller cores were showing single core performance worse than Piledriver. Eventually they decided to go ahead with it anyway and pulled in some additional performance improvements to at least make it a marginal improvement over PD.

 

[Kyoufu]

They just released Xbox One X.

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I don't think that really matters much. The Xbox One X total installed base won't be very large. I mean, PS5 will probably outsell it in the first year? It's a mid-gen refresh after all. I just think Microsoft need to be there alongside their director competitor.

 

[anexanhume]

I don't think that really matters much. The Xbox One X total installed base won't be very large. I mean, PS5 will probably outsell it in the first year? It's a mid-gen refresh after all. I just think Microsoft need to be there alongside their director competitor.

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I agree. Most of the engineering effort is on the SoC team.

Heck, they could take the X, drop in a new APU, swap the memory for GDDR6, and I'd buy it. It's a fantastically designed and looking system IMO.

 

[Expy]

I don't think that really matters much. The Xbox One X total installed base won't be very large. I mean, PS5 will probably outsell it in the first year? It's a mid-gen refresh after all. I just think Microsoft need to be there alongside their director competitor.

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A mid-gen refresh that came a year later -- These companies are pretty neck and neck with R&D timelines, so expect the same kind of gap in release schedules.

I don't think it matters much to Microsoft anyway, they're moving more towards services revenue model.

 

[Deleted member 34239]

I think anyone should be able to partake in this discussion regardless of their technical knowledge or lack thereof. If you think a prediction is crazy or farfetched then point it out. No need to be this anal tbh.

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Fair, but several times in this thread, the conversation has been derailed by questionable predictions that has led to pages useless discussion about possibilities that should never be considered. We've seen this with the 8TF ps5 and the BC compatibility kerfuffle despite having access to patents confirming it's existence. It might have been a bit harsh to suggest that but when you have people speaking authoritatively about things they do not know, it can lead to purposeless discussions.

 

[RoboPlato]

Oh, sure, let's do this, but I can count with my fingers how many would actually qualify for an acceptable bar

Edit: In case it wasn't obvious, I was being sarcastic about "let's do this"

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I'd be kicked out once someone drags up the old speculation threads from GAF about the current consoles and I said we'd be lucky to get 2gb of RAM

 

[Silencerx98]

I'd be kicked out once someone drags up the old speculation threads from GAF about the current consoles and I said we'd be lucky to get 2gb of RAM

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Ha, I think that one would be an exception. Was there anyone even genuinely expecting 8GB RAM back then? :P

 

[Kyoufu]

Fair, but several times in this thread, the conversation has been derailed by questionable predictions that has led to pages useless discussion about possibilities that should never be considered. We've seen this with the 8TF ps5 and the BC compatibility kerfuffle despite having access to patents confirming it's existence. It might have been a bit harsh to suggest that but when you have people speaking authoritatively about things they do not know, it can lead to purposeless discussions.

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Well, I mean, there's really no discussion here that can be derailed if we're still talking predictions and whatnot since we have absolutely zero credible leaks about the actual specs or timing of the next-gen systems and launches. We're naturally going in circles until we do get a real leak.

I'd be kicked out once someone drags up the old speculation threads from GAF about the current consoles and I said we'd be lucky to get 2gb of RAM

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The earliest PS4 dev kits had 2GB RAM didn't they? Then it went up to 4GB, then 8GB was finalised?

 

[Deleted member 5764]

A mid-gen refresh that came a year later -- These companies are pretty neck and neck with R&D timelines, so expect the same kind of gap in release schedules.

I don't think it matters much to Microsoft anyway, they're moving more towards services revenue model.

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I was just about to post something like this! Xbox is a gateway to Microsoft's services, but they're moving away from it being the only option. They won't bend over backwards to release a console right next to Sony as a result.

 

[RoboPlato]

I think people are too preoccupied with what MS can do compared to Sony and vice versa. I see two possible scenarios for next gen.

1. Both Xbox and PlayStation release at similar times with almost identical specs

2. They release a year apart, like with the Pro and X, and the companies continue on different upgrade paths. Sony seems to want to get their hardware releases out as soon as node shrinks are viable while MS seems to want to wait until they're fully mature. There's logic in both approaches. In this scenario, both platforms keep leapfrogging each other in terms of power.

 

[Kyoufu]

Okay, maybe I'm looking at Microsoft through an outdated lense, but I wonder how it'd impact their marketshare if they did launch one year late to the next-gen party.

 

[CrypticSlayer]

I feel like MS still wants to be number 1 in the US and UK. If they go a year later they pretty much give up a whole year worth of sales and potentially make it harder for them to price cut to meet the competition. MS right now typically tries to undercut the PS4s price and offer deals. If they come out later I found it harder for them to retain that specific audience.

They also announced project Scorpio a year before it was supposed to come out because the Ps4 Pro was coming out that year. That to me indicates they don't want their audience flocking to another ecosystem.

 

[anexanhume]

I feel like MS still wants to be number 1 in the US and UK. If they go a year later they pretty much give up a whole year worth of sales and potentially make it harder for them to price cut to meet the competition. MS right now typically tries to undercut the PS4s price and offer deals. If they come out later I found it harder for them to retain that specific audience.

They also announced project Scorpio a year before it was supposed to come out because the Ps4 Pro was coming out that year. That to me indicates they don't want their audience flocking to another ecosystem.

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Very good points. Also recall that PS4 Pro was pushed as an accelerator for VR. X1X has no such excuse. It exists solely to be a better Xbox One and to compete with the Pro. I think Spencer is very conscious of the hardcore gamers' opinions and will want to roll out a competitive or superior console this time around.

The key question I have is whether Scorpio was always planned, or was it slapped together once they figured out Sony was working on a Pro?

 

[fiendcode]

Fair, but several times in this thread, the conversation has been derailed by questionable predictions that has led to pages useless discussion about possibilities that should never be considered. We've seen this with the 8TF ps5 and the BC compatibility kerfuffle despite having access to patents confirming it's existence. It might have been a bit harsh to suggest that but when you have people speaking authoritatively about things they do not know, it can lead to purposeless discussions.

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Then counter with exactly why my prediction was "really not based in reality at all". If you don't want to derail the thread then try something other than an insulting drive-by.

 

[gcwy]

This post is really not based in reality at all. I feel like there should be a minimum level of technical knowledge required to participate in this thread.

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Please elaborate whatever is wrong with that post.

 

[2Blackcats]

It's not. You won't get anything from anywhere on a completely different architecture. The balance between CPU and GPU may be different in next gen but it doesn't mean that either will be less loaded because the code which they will run will obviously be different too.

I'm also still not really sure where this persistent idea of a significantly faster CPU somehow magically affecting gaming to the point where it'll be a dividing factor between this and next gen is even coming from. People thinking that modern console CPUs is the reason why we get mostly 30 fps games are wrong, plain and simple. This won't change no matter what CPU next gen will have. The amount of how much a possible 8-core Zen CPU will affect gaming workloads in nextgen consoles is really overblown right now.

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Well I don't think the architecture will be completely different, we're getting an evolution of what we have now. It's sounding like it's going to be much more balanced this time around with a relatively stronger cpu. At the start of the gen we heard "gpu compute" will help with the under powered jaguar. So either the new more powerful cpu will take some of those tasks back on leaving a higher % of the GPU to normal GPU tasks or all that GPU compute talk was rubbish.

What do you mean by overblown? What are examples of peoples unrealistic expectations for the CPUs in next gen consoles?

 

[anexanhume]

If nothing else, a competent CPU will close the gap between current PCs. The more similarities between consoles and PCs exist, the bigger favor it is to all developers. We've definitely seen developers complaints about Jaguar filter out over the years. Hopefully that stops with some flavor of Zen.

 

[Falcon511]

Very good points. Also recall that PS4 Pro was pushed as an accelerator for VR. X1X has no such excuse. It exists solely to be a better Xbox One and to compete with the Pro. I think Spencer is very conscious of the hardcore gamers' opinions and will want to roll out a competitive or superior console this time around.

The key question I have is whether Scorpio was always planned, or was it slapped together once they figured out Sony was working on a Pro?

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Scorpio was green lit in 2014 shortly after Spencer took over. They even had an APU that was similar to the PS4 pro but opted to wait a year because the 6TF was better able to hit 4K.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

Good points. Some PC games are starting to show benefits on 6 or more cores, so it makes sense. Also, do yo really want to roll out a 4 core APU when you're competitor is very likely to do 8?

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Great point. Launching with a 4 core CPU up against a competitor with 8 cores would be disastrous. It could really hold games development back for an entire generation (with the 4 core system being the lowest denominator).

Thanks, now I'm more confident.

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Glad I was able to reassure you :-)

It's not. You won't get anything from anywhere on a completely different architecture. The balance between CPU and GPU may be different in next gen but it doesn't mean that either will be less loaded because the code which they will run will obviously be different too.

I'm also still not really sure where this persistent idea of a significantly faster CPU somehow magically affecting gaming to the point where it'll be a dividing factor between this and next gen is even coming from. People thinking that modern console CPUs is the reason why we get mostly 30 fps games are wrong, plain and simple. This won't change no matter what CPU next gen will have. The amount of how much a possible 8-core Zen CPU will affect gaming workloads in nextgen consoles is really overblown right now.

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I'm not sure it is overblown, dgrdsv. It's been the view of many, including the guys at DF, that many games this gen. have been mostly CPU-limited. Whilst I agree with you that we're not likely to see the ratio of 30fps : 60fps games change much even with a significantly stronger CPU next-gen, I do believe that a much stronger CPU will open up gameplay opportunities and higher simulation complexity that would have just been impossible this gen..

I think it cannot be understated how held-back we were this gen. by the relatively poor single-threaded performance of the Jaguar, despite having 4-5 cores devoted to games.

From what I remember, Kaveri was inches from being cancelled at one point. Simulations for Steamroller cores were showing single core performance worse than Piledriver. Eventually they decided to go ahead with it anyway and pulled in some additional performance improvements to at least make it a marginal improvement over PD.

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Yikes... Cheers for the additional info.. In light of all this, Zen really does feel like a miracle architecture to come out of AMD.

The key question I have is whether Scorpio was always planned, or was it slapped together once they figured out Sony was working on a Pro?

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This is a million dollar question. One I don't think we'll ever really get an answer to.

 

[Elandyll]

The Last of Us -- arguably one of the best PS3 games --, launched the year PS4 came out.

Those games you mentioned, as I've stated in the past, may well be cross-gen games.

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They will certainly be imo. I see Tsushima, Death Stranding and probably TLOU2 as the big cross gen exclusives of 2019.
At this point, I feel WilD and specially HZD2 could be the launch exclusives to the PS5.

Those cross gen games will likely benefit from a hefty day 1 patch that will catter both to the PS4 Pro (checkered 4k/30 @ medium settings) and the PS5 (native 4k/30 @ ultra settings with 4K assets like textures).

This being said, the denial for 2019 is unbelievable, in spite of what many (including myself) have repeatedly been telling people for more than a year now.

If 2019 is too early... Don't buy it in 2019? (I know I always wait 1 year myself).

 

[Akabeko]

Great point. Launching with a 4 core CPU up against a competitor with 8 cores would be disastrous. It could really hold games development back for an entire generation (with the 4 core system being the lowest denominator).



Glad I was able to reassure you :-)



I'm not sure it is overblown, dgrdsv. It's been the view of many, including the guys at DF, that many games this gen. have been mostly CPU-limited. Whilst I agree with you that we're not likely to see the ratio of 30fps : 60fps games change much even with a significantly stronger CPU next-gen, I do believe that a much stronger CPU will open up gameplay opportunities and higher simulation complexity that would have just been impossible this gen..

I think it cannot be understated how held-back we were this gen. by the relatively poor single-threaded performance of the Jaguar, despite having 4-5 cores devoted to games.



Yikes... Cheers for the additional info.. In light of all this, Zen really does feel like a miracle architecture to come out of AMD.



This is a million dollar question. One I don't think we'll ever really get an answer to.

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The promise of Zen is one thing that made me consider staying at AMD, but the prospect of the dry years prior to that turned me off and I got a much better offer elsewhere.

In regards to PS4 Pro / XBOX, I remember hearing about TJ2 and KT2 projects almost immediately after TJ / KT went into mass production. But, I have no idea if those are the chips that eventually ended up in Pro / XBOX.

 

[Miniature Kaiju]

Most of the jobs that might have been moved to the GPU - AI pathfinding, physics, etc - actually benefit from being there, they're sped up considerably. I don't think those are coming back to the CPU. Beefier CPU will be able to push a lot more draw calls, simulate a larger number of entities simultaneously and have deeper simulation states overall.

One thing I was thinking about the game size problem is the possibility of using neural networks to compress the textures. There's been some interesting research in the area about lossless compression, with significant results: up to 80% reduction in size, depending on initial dataset - the larger the set, better the compression. It's especially effective when dealing with vast amounts of similar images, that can have features with redundant representation. As always, compression is a time vs. space problem, so you get smaller games, but at the cost of longer install times, since the NN would have to reconstruct the textures from the seeds.

 

[anexanhume]

In light of all this, Zen really does feel like a miracle architecture to come out of AMD.

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His name is Jim Keller. (And he kind of looks like a disheveled Phil Spencer)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Keller_(engineer)

Seriously, this is the guy behind AMD's first foray into 64-bit that caught Intel flat-footed, he helped pioneer Apple's custom SoCs, and then he went back to AMD and fixed their shit again with Zen. He's a silicon rock star.

 

[2Blackcats]

Most of the jobs that might have been moved to the GPU - AI pathfinding, physics, etc - actually benefit from being there, they're sped up considerably. I don't think those are coming back to the CPU. Beefier CPU will be able to push a lot more draw calls, simulate a larger number of entities simultaneously and have deeper simulation states overall.

One thing I was thinking about the game size problem is the possibility of using neural networks to compress the textures. There's been some interesting research in the area about lossless compression, with significant results: up to 80% reduction in size, depending on initial dataset - the larger the set, better the compression. It's especially effective when dealing with vast amounts of similar images, that can have features with redundant representation. As always, compression is a time vs. space problem, so you get smaller games, but at the cost of longer install times, since the NN would have to reconstruct the textures from the seeds.

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Thanks, that's actually what I was wondering with my original post.

 

[Furisco]

I'll be happy with next gen if every game offers a resolution mode and a performance mode.

 

[YogurtMaster]

doesn't matter if we need it or not. from now on every console will get a mid gen refresh as it boosted their revenue and sold number by 20%. . you will get PS5 pro to play 4k 60FPS on Ultra. instead of 4k 30FPS and Ultra of PS5 . they will find a way . dont worry about that part

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I would question why the consumer needs this. If you want that, just buy a PC and call it a day. Yeah, they are expensive, but you can upgrade at will. I just don't follow why a console would need something like this. I believe this was a one time deal for 4K and because they were weak at launch.

 

[2Blackcats]

I would question why the consumer needs this. If you want that, just buy a PC and call it a day. Yeah, they are expensive, but you can upgrade at will. I just don't follow why a console would need something like this. I believe this was a one time deal for 4K and because they were weak at launch.

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I think if this generation transition goes as smoothly as some of us think it will, we're less likely to get the mid gen refreshes and more likely to get get slightly faster gens.

 

[YogurtMaster]

I mean, he literally said "The PS4 is the same as in 2013", and in his examples he mentionned clubs, which were a PS4 update (communities) --before- they were on XB1. And that's just the most egregious example.

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Yeah, but you have to read between the lines of what he was trying to say. Nobody is going to say that there haven't been any updates, because there have been. However, clearly Microsoft has done a better job on the updates and the quality of the OS. However, Microsoft hasn't done a quality jobs on getting quality first party titles and that's really what matters most as that is what sells systems.

 

[Punished Goku]

One of the the things I want for the PS5 to have is Dolby Vision.

 

[anexanhume]

One of the the things I want for the PS5 to have is Dolby Vision.

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Sony doesn't support Atmos whereas X1X does, so maybe they don't want to pay the licensing fees. There's always HDR10+, which is pretty close to Dolby Vision, including the dynamic metadata.

 

[Punished Goku]

Sony doesn't support Atmos whereas X1X does, so maybe they don't want to pay the licensing fees. There's always HDR10+, which is pretty close to Dolby Vision, including the dynamic metadata.

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It's gonna suck if Sony Tv's support DV, but not PS5.

 

[anexanhume]

It's gonna suck if Sony Tv's support DV, but not PS5.

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I would say if their TVs support it, so will PS5. Plus, we'll be getting VRR with HDMI 2.1. Those will be a big step forward for free image and motion quality enhancements.

 

[Yautja_Warrior]

One of the the things I want for the PS5 to have is Dolby Vision.

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Sony's latest UBP-X700 UHD blu-ray player supports Dolby Vision, or will soon with a firmware update, so it's possible PS5 will support it, as HDR and Dolby Vision become more popular.

Hopefully next gen will have Dolby Atmos and DTS: X as standard too, not just in some games.

 

[Kyoufu]

Matt's been hinting at a 2019 launch for both systems (I think) which gives me hope. I'm ready for that next-gen leap.

Dolby Vision (if Sony/MS pay for licence)
Dolby Atmos / DTS:X
Variable Refresh Rate (HDMI 2.1)
Zen CPU
Better SATA3 speeds for SSDs (hopefully)
4K + Performance options
Better controllers
Backwards compatibility

Those would all be lovely for next-gen.

 

[Deleted member 12635]

Matt's been hinting at a 2019 launch for both systems (I think) which gives me hope. I'm ready for that next-gen leap.

Dolby Vision (if Sony/MS pay for licence)
Dolby Atmos / DTS:X
Variable Refresh Rate (HDMI 2.1)
Zen CPU
Better SATA3 speeds for SSDs (hopefully)
4K + Performance options
Better controllers
Backwards compatibility

Those would all be lovely for next-gen.

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I really don't think MS updates before 2020. Playstation maybe but I don't see it for MS. I am still in the 2020 camp for both consoles.

 

[Xeontech]

So does anyone think that the two consoles will launch at around the same time or will One launch first and get outspecced by another launching a year later?

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Ideally for both, it would be the former and they would launch at the same time.

But the X took too long to launch. I'm betting Sony 2019, MS 2020(ish), and Sony gets the jump on the next gen, MS has slightly higher specs a year later. Sony has the less expensive console throughout the gen.

MS could surprise us and still just punch it out by 2019 as well, but this is more and more unlikely. Will be much easier to predict after their E3 showing.

 

[Mindlog]

So does anyone think that the two consoles will launch at around the same time or will One launch first and get outspecced by another launching a year later?

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Same time with nearly the same hardware doesn't sound like a bad bet right now.

 

[2Blackcats]

Do you think Microsoft and Sony have much more knowledge about each others plans than we do?

 

[The Artisan]

Do you think Microsoft and Sony have much more knowledge about each others plans than we do?

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I wonder if they communicate about this stuff

 

[The Artisan]

Ideally for both, it would be the former and they would launch at the same time.

But the X took too long to launch. I'm betting Sony 2019, MS 2020(ish), and Sony gets the jump on the next gen, MS has slightly higher specs a year later. Sony has the less expensive console throughout the gen.

MS could surprise us and still just punch it out by 2019 as well, but this is more and more unlikely. Will be much easier to predict after their E3 showing.

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they should both launch in 2020. Ps4 pro should have a 4 year life span at least.

 

[2Blackcats]

I wonder if they communicate about this stuff

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I don't think they would communicate with each other. Think that might unethical.

But AMD might say something or maybe they have better insiders.

they should both launch in 2020. Ps4 pro should have a 4 year life span at least.

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Why? It's not its own thing, it's just a shinier PS4. 6 years is plenty long for a gen (though I'd be totally fine with 2020 too). I think they should launch when the hardware is ready to go.

 

[Xeontech]

Please elaborate whatever is wrong with that post.

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There is no way a competing console is getting that big of a leap one year later for $100 more lol. It's pretty ludicris.

The more interesting question I think is, what are the chances MS or Sony switch gears to an Intel/Nvidia setup for next gen rather than Zen/AMD?

I know it's pretty far fetched, but if one of them made the switch and they had similar priced hardware it could make for some veeery interesting tech discussions.