PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - timing and specification
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That's not an artificial factor either. Artificial is not a technical term I don't think, but I'd say it would be a factor not dictated by the market... nothing can be less artificial than profit margin as a driving factor of prices in my mind
I don't know really. It's basically just what some of us have been saying in this thread for months.
Considering that's what killed the Xbox One's hopes, no, I would expect neither console will have any always online requirement.
I'll actually go further: I do think we're still too early for either Microsoft or Sony to drop the disc drive.
Disc drives are not even expensive, so it makes no sense to drop them to begin with. Do people still have the misconception that the disc Drive is a significant part of the hardware costs?
Always Online is just MS being greedy thinking they have no competition.
Always Online is just MS being greedy thinking they have no competition.
The misconception is on your part as you clearly didn't research what you're talking about, look up the BoM for XB and PS4.
Then look once again at the difference in cost between a regular BD and a BD-XL, you'd be surprised.
It doesn't stop there though, having a disc drive in a system affects the size of the system, cooling, the PCB itself which affects design and/or cost and the list goes on.
All in all it plays a big part in everything, a system without a disc drive would be most beneficial all-around but the world just isn't there yet and might never be within our lifetime.
You haven't gave me your actual cost saving estimate. How much would a console be sold for without a disc drive?
Would it even save more than 20 dollars?
Would it even save more than 20 dollars?
Wish they came with an empty 3.5" bay so we could add a HDD or BD drive. Or even just let us swap out the drive.
I'd be all over a driveless PS5 if it meant something like a NUC-sized console, say, 160mm x 160mm x 40mm. Something that you could just throw into a bag.
NUC size? I value my hearing and my first PS4 Pro nearly deafened me! I want a more practical (ugly if needs be) console that can keep cool quietly.
Any PS5 soc won't be produced at Glofo. It will be at TSMC.
If PS should really be 2019:
Could it be that Sony's insiders found out about Microsoft planning to launch in 2020 then? Just a theory. If mid-gen means 4 years for MS that would normally lead to 21. I know I probably shouldn't take it as literal but hey maybe it could be a little indication.
Sorry if already discussed of course :(
Could it be that Sony's insiders found out about Microsoft planning to launch in 2020 then? Just a theory. If mid-gen means 4 years for MS that would normally lead to 21. I know I probably shouldn't take it as literal but hey maybe it could be a little indication.
Sorry if already discussed of course :(
I have my doubts about certain things but Jaguar again isn't one of them. Unless Cerny goes crazy Ken and integrates them into the APU somehow for BC!?
Crazy Ken was actually a misunderstood visionary. Dude was way ahead of his time, pushing for the kind of highly parallelized computing we're only seeing become commonplace nowadays.
I doubt it. It'll be one or the other.
Is there a way to drastically customise Jaguar for a next-gen console or do they have no choice but to ditch it entirely?
He was great. Cerny better wear a bring back crazy Ken T-Shirt at the PS5 reveal to show Phil he can be cool too.
Why? Zen is just so much better. It will clock higher and has a better IPC, more up to date features and track record shows that Cerny listens to what the devs want/need. What they probably want is a significant improvement on the CPU and the only way to achieve that is to go with Zen.
Plus he told Digital Foundry's Rich Leadbetter that a new CPU architecture is a requirement for a next-gen console.
I'm just worried they mess something up. Whether it's the CPU, RAM or SATA3 speeds etc.
What's interesting is Cerny's backwards compatibility patent mentions a more powerful APU with an L3 cache for the CPU and a prior APU without it.
This has become an exercise in pedantics. People are suggesting that PS4 demand is definitively declining, that this should be concerning to Sony, worthy of significant reaction, and launching a new console is the reasonable response to this.
First, I think it's naive to think that Sony isn't acutely aware of what their sales trends look like, or that they are uncomfortable with where they sit on the cost-demand curve, and finally, that they have no mobility on this curve while maintaining profitibality. They're still competitive with the market and have a slew of great titles lined up.
Thus, I don't think they're under pressure to launch the PS5, but rather, just not be beaten to market by Microsoft. I think that is unlikely to happen given the likely similar architecture between the two.
I think they should be careful of first party PS4 titles launching close to, or even after, the PS5 given we don't know how this will affect title sales and console sales, given it's a little unprecedented. Additionally, as seamless as the compatibility is supposed to be, it may place extra burden on the developers to support both consoles from launch. We know third parties struggled with this in the prior gen launch. I'm also a little extra sympathetic to first party devs since they're completely at the mercy of their owners to provide a market, console, and marketing.
I wouldn't automatically assume this. GloFo's first 7nm iteration is optimized for performance whereas TSMC is optimized for power efficiency. The latter is going for all the mobile whiles, while GloFo probably wants to make AMD APUs and GPUs.
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April 2019, PS Meeting. Cerny announces that, since advancements in tech are slowing down, to offer users the best gaming possible, present and future, he looked for revolutionary solutions. That meant enlisting the help of a true visionary, and no one better to fit the bill as a co-developer for the PS5 than the Father of Playstation himself, Ken Kutaragi.
Crowd goes wild. PS5 with 4 GPU chiplets on an MCM. $649. The size of a minivan.
In addition the CPU is a Cell X, with 3 PPE's and 21 SPE's all clocked at 3.5GHz, delivering performance surpassing even Intel's i9 7980Xe. Zen, eat your heart out
And they will name this iteration of the processor....the golden freiza
No... Glofo doesnt have the capacity to deal with console soc production.
Fab 8 can produce 60k 300m wafers a month. That's plenty if they're churning them out several months before launch.
So the entire fab working just on ps5? Honest question, don't know if that's a normal thing
No. But assume 100 350mm^2 die per 300m wafer yield (around 66% yield). That's 9M APUs in one month of full capacity. They need 2-3M for launch, and they'll have 3-6 months of fabbing to get there.
Internet bandwidth is the real problem. 4k textures and higher ......we're going to have disc drives for a while.
Estimated cost of the BD drive plus 2TB hard drive in Xbox One S is $88. Vast majority of that is the HDD.
https://ihsmarkit.com/research-anal...big-time-for-only-24-more-teardown-shows.html
This launch comparison has the normal BD drives around $25. Given cost depreciation since then plus increase from new drive type, I'd say within $5 of that either way.
http://www.techinsights.com/ps4-vs-xboxone/?iframe=true&width=100%&height=100%
https://ihsmarkit.com/research-anal...big-time-for-only-24-more-teardown-shows.html
This launch comparison has the normal BD drives around $25. Given cost depreciation since then plus increase from new drive type, I'd say within $5 of that either way.
http://www.techinsights.com/ps4-vs-xboxone/?iframe=true&width=100%&height=100%
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I'm still worried that will be the first generation where people won't see any clear difference in graphics from current gen, and it's like nobody is seeing it coming. Compare the generational gap this time to any other generation shift before. It's soo subtle.
I'm worried, when i see all those digital foundry vids that show different versions of games you know, comparing PS4/PS4pro and XBO or even PC, and you're like "oh yeah i can spot the difference pretty clearly on my 4k screen if the camera is not moving too much". This is what this next gen will be. A cleaner version of what we have now, and it's going to be the first time in the videogame history that the industry cannot create a striking difference to renew the market. it could be a problem.
I'm worried, when i see all those digital foundry vids that show different versions of games you know, comparing PS4/PS4pro and XBO or even PC, and you're like "oh yeah i can spot the difference pretty clearly on my 4k screen if the camera is not moving too much". This is what this next gen will be. A cleaner version of what we have now, and it's going to be the first time in the videogame history that the industry cannot create a striking difference to renew the market. it could be a problem.
In the "anything before 2020 is too soon" camp.
We haven't even begun to test the limits of this gen yet.
We haven't even begun to test the limits of this gen yet.
Any chances of getting native 4k and 60fps for next gen ? I think best case scenario is dynamic 4k 60fps or native 4k 30fps, since I believe they will price the next gen hardware around $400 to $450. What do you guys think ?
I think your best case hits the nail on the head. At best, cross gens game will be 4k60. The computational cost of native 4k vs even 4kcb is double from a pixel rendering standpoint. There isn't double the visual clarity between a good 4kcb implementation and native 4k.
VRR will hopefully be a thing, where we should definitely have fps >30 fps in most titles.
Something needs to be reminded... The jaguar cores weren't Sony's first choice (nor Microsoft most likely). They were forced to choose them because they were the only ones manufacturable at TSMC.
That's because all games developed at the moment target the XB1, a 1.31TFlops machine as the baseline. The mid gen upgrades typically only offer much higher resolutions, whether it be checkboard 4K, native 1800p or 1620p because that's all their GPU's can manage. PC versions offer those in addition to refined settings such as higher resolution shadows, more accurate ambient occlusion, greater draw distances, Gameworks effects and such because devs aren't going to rebuild the rendering pipeline from the ground up just for a minority of the market. When next gen consoles hit and cross gen games die out, devs will begin targeting 12+TFlops hardware as the new baseline. No longer shackled by much weaker hardware, there's many more improvements to be had in real time rendering. This concern that next gen will hit diminishing returns hard baffles me
I'll believe it when i see it.
There are obvious fact i mean.
RAM has had 16x upgrades in the past against 2 to 4 at very best this time.
Resolution will eat a big part of the GFlop boost.
I'd say, tell me if i'm wrong, this this the first generation where we won't see an obvious upgrade in character models in game. Tell me PS5 will give me a visible difference in a game like Horizon Zero Dawn for the main character ? I'm not saying something that tech guys will see. Something as obvious as past generations had.
And i don't believe in diminishing return in graphics, long term wise. I do believe the 4k upgrade will absorb an already too subtle spec upgrade this time. Techs are hitting a limit due to costs etc.. and resolution upgrades are going too fast for it.
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This is kind of what I've been thinking as well but I don't know what the size would be on 7nm. I'm really bad at the die size part of the speculation.
Aloy is actually an outlier in character model rendering since I estimate her model is at least 200K at max LOD. It's been confirmed her hair alone are rendered using individual splines similar to Hairworks or PureHair, cumulatively 100K polys. Most character models today consist of 100K at max LOD and hair rendering is done with polygonal sheets rather than individual splines. Real time rendering still has a long way to go with character rendering. Take a look at the Witch Cry demo:
Her hair and the feathers on her dress are all individually rendered, a colossal increase in polygon count over current gen models. Intricate details on clothing today are placed through normal maps instead of displacement maps, essentially a much cheaper way of approximating fine details. Next gen, I expect individual splines rendering for hair and displacement maps for intricate details to be commonplace.
And this is solely on polygon count. This gen, we finally have subsurface scattering running in gameplay, whereas last gen it was very rarely used and even then, only in pre rendered in engine cutscenes. However, subsurface scattering quality in gameplay still leaves much to be desired and in some games like Uncharted 4, it's even turned off occasionally. If you don't know what subsurface scattering is, it's essentially an effect that adds translucency and approximated light propagation through soft materials like skin and snow. Next gen, subsurface scattering can be bumped to a much higher and more consistent quality, delivering skin that looks a lot more realistic.
These paragraphs are all on character rendering. I haven't even brought up other improvements I expect to see next gen such as real time global illumination, ray traced shadows and world space reflections. There is MUCH, much more to do in real time rendering
A 12 TF console would be a huge step up, especially if paired with a decent CPU. X1X seems to be doing quite alright at 4K, or close to it, and CB and other techniques used to approximate a 4K image are coming along well (John from Digital Foundry has only had good things to say about GOW's CB implementation), which could leave a ton of overhead if devs are sticking with Faux-K. RAM footprint increase might not seem that big, but bandwidth is also an issue to consider and GDDR6 represents a significant improvement in that area.
I think you'll be happy with what we see next gen, especially if you're interested in more simulation in game worlds, as opposed to the movie sets we currently get in games like Horizon.
Some of the biggest breakout games this gen: fortnite, pubg, rocket league. Graphics ain't everything. You've still got titles like uncharted 4, Witcher 3 and horizon doing well too. Look at how well the Switch is doing too. There's a healthy spectrum out there.
This is a good point. There were certainly rumors they looked at steamroller cores, and besides power consumption, I'm sure this was the number one factor.
14/16nm scaling is better than 50%. Xbox One X and PS4 Pro have 40 and 36 CUs respectively on 16nm, so 72CU should fit in the same area unless Navi CUs are way bigger.
OK cool. That's what I was hoping. An 8 core Zen and 72 CU GPU on 7nm would be pretty much the size the current consoles.
I see this sentiment a lot, and don't agree with it.
What we're seeing this generation are better techniques for mitigating performance issues. The increased use of variable resolutions to maintain fps have been in use since 2014 on the Xbone, and we've seen Uni use a CB-like solution for R6 on both base consoles.
Last gen those techniques weren't readily used, so instead we ended up with fps tanking in hectic sections of games.
So I'd argue that while yes, there is some more performance to be wrung out of even the base models, it's down to new & better coding solutions rather than hidden depths within the hardware.
Aloy is actually an outlier in character model rendering since I estimate her model is at least 200K at max LOD. It's been confirmed her hair alone are rendered using individual splines similar to Hairworks or PureHair, cumulatively 100K polys. Most character models today consist of 100K at max LOD and hair rendering is done with polygonal sheets rather than individual splines. Real time rendering still has a long way to go with character rendering. Take a look at the Witch Cry demo:
Her hair and the feathers on her dress are all individually rendered, a colossal increase in polygon count over current gen models. Intricate details on clothing today are placed through normal maps instead of displacement maps, essentially a much cheaper way of approximating fine details. Next gen, I expect individual splines rendering for hair and displacement maps for intricate details to be commonplace.
And this is solely on polygon count. This gen, we finally have subsurface scattering running in gameplay, whereas last gen it was very rarely used and even then, only in pre rendered in engine cutscenes. However, subsurface scattering quality in gameplay still leaves much to be desired and in some games like Uncharted 4, it's even turned off occasionally. If you don't know what subsurface scattering is, it's essentially an effect that adds translucency and approximated light propagation through soft materials like skin and snow. Next gen, subsurface scattering can be bumped to a much higher and more consistent quality, delivering skin that looks a lot more realistic.
These paragraphs are all on character rendering. I haven't even brought up other improvements I expect to see next gen such as real time global illumination, ray traced shadows and world space reflections. There is MUCH, much more to do in real time rendering
Yeah you're telling me there is better than can be done, i know :p
I also know XBX can't hit native 4k at 6tflop in many games. You guys are talking fake 4k. i'd be happy with it but what i fear is now that Mictosoft used the "real 4k" marketing, next gen will have trouble not playing that game.
So 12TF is 2x what you need to display a current gen game at native 4k. What i'm wondering is do you have the power upgrade to do what you're talking about in your post. Also things like Subsurface Scattering is the kind of tech that wil be great for cut scenes but better skin shaders won't change a lot in game situations. You're illustrating my theory with the Aloy example. If we have this gen, models like those, or the ones in The Order for exemple, i don't see how anything will make them look aged in comparison with 12TF. This is not going to happen.
And i hope we'll get better things with CPU and probably more interesting upgrades actually. What i'm saying is it'll be the first ever console generation without a graphic gap, at least in assets. Alloy is the best exemple for that. Make her 2x the geometry, better subsurface scattering, whatever you want, people won't see the difference in game. Maybe way better clothe physics would be something easily noticeable that would give a wow factor, i don't know. Cause you need this wow factor, that every new generation had from the start. It's going to be strange not having it.
Wait, why are you using the XBX and multiplying it by 2 to assume we need that for native 4K? You'll get a resolution way higher than that because the XBX already renders many games at native 1800p and some even at native 2160p. If anything, the base PS4 is the perfect gauge to estimate the power requirement for native 4K. 1.84TFlops GPU and most games run at 1080p, so 4 times of that is roughly 7.3TFlops for an equivalent increase in pixel density. Let's be generous and assume improvements in Navi makes that bar lower, so 6.5TFlops. With a 12+TFlops GPU, that's a ton of headroom left.
As for no increase in asset quality, can you honestly tell me that even for an untrained eye, the Witch Cry demo GIF I posted above doesn't look a generation above Aloy's model? It's not even a contest from a geometry standpoint, really. Better quality subsurface scattering in gameplay can make a significant difference. It reduces the visual gap between cutscene and gameplay and overall delivers a much more consistent quality to visual fidelity. Consistency is actually the main aspect we're lacking in real time rendering compared to offline CGI, so yes, if you ask me, even for an untrained eye, it will make a big difference, although they won't be able to point out why specifically.
Also, you seemed to ignore my point on real time global illumination, ray traced shadows and world space reflections for some reason.
No but you didn't tell my how those 6tf of headroom left allow that. You're telling me i need 6,5tf to render 4k alone, and with 12tf i can have that with raytraced lights ? I find that hard to believe.
And i was saying the same as you, i must hae not been clear sorry. I'm saying 6tf for 4k, so next gen is 2x that. That's 2x the power, not counting resolution boost. That's not a lot. Would be interesting to see the equivalent comparision for PS3 to PS4.
So how much resources are we going to get back from the GPU when we move some of the GPU compute tasks back to the CPU?
Or is that not how it works?
Or is that not how it works?
Oh, my bad, I misread, haha. What does ray traced lights mean, by the way? That's a meaningless and inaccurate term :P
What I said was ray traced shadows and they're not actually that far fetched. Nvidia has already used them in a few games such as The Division and Watch Dogs 2. A significant hit from traditional shadow mapping for sure, but with much stronger hardware, it's certainly doable. Furthermore, real time GI has already been used several times this gen in games such as Kingdom Come Deliverance, Forza Horizon 3, Quantum Break, DriveClub, The Divison, FFXV and The Tomorrow Children. The performance hit is just too much for every game to use it on current gen, but the possibility should open up next gen with much stronger hardware
Well yeah but as you're saying yourself, we had it in current gen games ;) So that won't be terribly next gen.
I mean you're certainly, right more power will obviously allow for more stuff, but that won't change my problem. Being that it's going to be the smallest gap ever. i'd say every new gen, made the past one look aged in comparison. That's how you convince people to buy a new system for a lot of money. This time, it's going to be difficult to make some PS4 games (especially counting the pro versions) look aged. Time to sleep for me now!
Loads of people think that every recent gen. I expect you to be pleasantly surprised. Night.
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