My trip this August seems (so far) plausible with how the cases and the reopenings have been, granted I don't have to switch continents.
My trip this August seems (so far) plausible with how the cases and the reopenings have been, granted I don't have to switch continents.
I went to Target for the first time since probably February and was absolutely shocked at how few people we wearing masks. The workers all had them plus the shields up over the register but....not many in store had them on.
That seems to be exactly what's happened; everyone eased restrictions as they reopened the economy and now with the protests taking up the news cycle, no one is even paying attention to the numbers/cases. I don't even know what ours in Ohio are offhand since no one seems to be reporting them any more (besides probably the DoH which i plan to go look for after i post this)
At this point if we get a second or third wave, I doubt any state will close back down again.
Chile update
as of June 7th
+ 6.405 new positives, 134.150 total
+ 96 new deaths, 1.637 total
+ 1.336 ventilated, 372 critical, 328 avaliable
+ 21.265 reported tests, 708.775 total
as of June 8th:
+ 4.696 new positives, 138.846 total
+ 74 new deaths, 2.264 total
+ 1.333 ventilated, 380 critical, 321 total
+ 20.040 reported tests, 728.816 total
That difference in deaths: around 600 new deaths previously not counted were finally added to the official numbers. After several warnings by one journalist and some statistics centers that claimed the Health Ministry was leaving out some deaths. They claim it is 700+ new deaths, but health ministry has confirmed 600 of them.
Around 80% of total cases are in the capital. City is under "total quarantine" but subway is full, banks are full, etc.
Any company can declare themselves "essential", banks are not solving most problems online so you have to go physically to solve them, etc.
A total train wreck of an strategy. They are still chasing that herd immunity, while not solving the blind spots of the quarantine.
The worst thing? Government still blames people for "not staying home".
as of June 7th
+ 6.405 new positives, 134.150 total
+ 96 new deaths, 1.637 total
+ 1.336 ventilated, 372 critical, 328 avaliable
+ 21.265 reported tests, 708.775 total
as of June 8th:
+ 4.696 new positives, 138.846 total
+ 74 new deaths, 2.264 total
+ 1.333 ventilated, 380 critical, 321 total
+ 20.040 reported tests, 728.816 total
That difference in deaths: around 600 new deaths previously not counted were finally added to the official numbers. After several warnings by one journalist and some statistics centers that claimed the Health Ministry was leaving out some deaths. They claim it is 700+ new deaths, but health ministry has confirmed 600 of them.
Around 80% of total cases are in the capital. City is under "total quarantine" but subway is full, banks are full, etc.
Any company can declare themselves "essential", banks are not solving most problems online so you have to go physically to solve them, etc.
A total train wreck of an strategy. They are still chasing that herd immunity, while not solving the blind spots of the quarantine.
The worst thing? Government still blames people for "not staying home".
The NY/NJ area continues to open and I'm not at all convinced we're ready to do this. I have family starting to return to work basically because they don't have a choice and it's making me nervous.
I spoke to my medical director about antibody testing for staff and he said it's not likely simply because there's no data behind it. There's no data to prove that antibodies means immunity.
I think the phases make sense. What makes you think that NY isn't ready? We've more than flattened the curve.
I'm pretty much only visiting businesses where they enforce their mask policies. It at the very least means they're not sticking their heads in the sand.
Went to Menards yesterday and there were people being turned away. They'd always leave with a "WELL I'M NOT SHOPPING HERE ANYMORE". No one cares.
Went to Menards yesterday and there were people being turned away. They'd always leave with a "WELL I'M NOT SHOPPING HERE ANYMORE". No one cares.
I may just be uninformed, but since there are still people sick, still new cases every day doesn't that mean it is likely to spread again as more people come into contact with one another?
Potentially, thats why people need to keep social distancing and wear masks when in a confined area.
Huh well I certainly had it. Almost certain I know exactly when I got it. I had like 3 days of insane pain and inability to breath that I was going to go to the hospital for on the fourth day (it began on a friday) but it eased up then.
Least I don't have to be on super egg shells now wondering if it'll kill me.
Least I don't have to be on super egg shells now wondering if it'll kill me.
it's been 15 days since the protests, so it will be interesting to see what the spikes around the country look like this week
The death rate IS higher. They're just purposefully misclassifying them.
If I didn't know better I'd say the virus was flat-out dying out in NY. There hasn't been a blip in anything yet. It's decreasing as tests are increasing.
As the protests have been ongoing for two weeks, there's still plenty of wait and see left. But honestly, even at this point, it's fucking weird.
Preach my man. If this thing is 80% a symptomatic then test results barely mean anything.
I think herd immunity is a real possibility in NYC. So many people got it already.
I've never heard anything about 80% asymptomatic, the last I heard was possibly 35%.
Hospitalizations are a much better metric but you still get some picture of the current situation with a high enough volume of testing.
Italy had its first day where the % of infected on total tests increased in the region of Lombardy. Lombardy also posted 70% of the total cases in italy, with 1/5th of the population. I think opening up all region indiscriminately will prove to be a mistake, sadly. The north has still too many active cases that can spread fast.
I wonder if it really is the heat that's helping, or maybe several people already have immunity.
42 million is the number of claims made (total) since mid-March, but you can't take that number and say it's the amount of currently unemployed. If you lost your job in March, but then went back in May or April, you're still counted in the 42m, but you won't be in the current unemployed number.
The continuing claims number was reported to be about 21m, which would put unemployment right around 15%, which is right around where it actually was after accounting for the funny math. 42m current unemployed would put us near 30%.
A few months ago there were reports that those who had COVID would have reduced lung function even after they recovered. Some articles thought it would be 20 to 25%. Have we heard more about that? Is that just for extreme cases? Do they still think it's permanent?
Definitely not the answer I was hoping to see but thank you for sharing it!
How does this work? Do asymptomatic people just have low viral loads?
I think you have to take into account the fact that there is a tipping point where you go from stagnant infection rates to exponential growth. One person going out and infecting even a 1000 people will have a negligible effect. Its when those 1000 people go out and infect another 100 each over the course of a couple of weeks and then those people infect a 100 more each over the course of a few more weeks that you see a measurable increase. However, if for example those initial 1000 only infect 10 people each and those 10 people only infect one each then you won't see any significant climb.
It may be months before any impact is seen, and death rates would lag this even further.
This right here. The number of hospitalizations and deaths are way down in NYC, compared to the rest of the country. The next 2 weeks should be pretty interesting to see if the protests will have an affect here.
NJ Daily Numbers:
+356 new cases (164497 total)
+40 deaths (12214 total)
Pools are opening back up on the 22nd, guidelines by the health department are to follow
The governor repeatedly urged everyone protesting to get tested. He said he is going as well.
R0 is at 0.7 which is quite the drop but its most likely the weekend data.
Positivity at 3.6%
Hospitalizations looking great
+356 new cases (164497 total)
+40 deaths (12214 total)
Pools are opening back up on the 22nd, guidelines by the health department are to follow
The governor repeatedly urged everyone protesting to get tested. He said he is going as well.
R0 is at 0.7 which is quite the drop but its most likely the weekend data.
Positivity at 3.6%
Hospitalizations looking great
I wish we still had that thread on "Who here has/had COVID", because I'm genuinely curious even after all these months how people get sick. I know I've asked people that have had it here and a lot of it is "i'm not sure".
My guess is a majority of people are spreading it in a household ( 1 person gets it and is in vicinity of others in the household ), but how is that 1 person bringing it home? It's not food... It's surely not from packages left at the doorstep? Is it grocery/retail shopping either via touching products then touching face OR being near symptomatic people? Is it being spread from closed air systems? Getting it from office/warehouse/face to face work? Is it going for a jog/bike ride and being near someone? Is it someone coughing/sneezing and another person being in vicinity that clearly has it? This has to be it right since the report says Asymptomatic spread is "rare"
Doesn't really make any sense. All the research shows the vast majority of people show very mild symptoms. So if you just feel a little under the weather, that's not going to get captured most of the time.
Pneumonia damage lungs, so it affect lung performance.
How long to recover or if it's permanent depend on the damage and the recovery process.
Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is 'very rare,' WHO says
Government responses should focus on detecting and isolating infected people with symptoms, said the WHO's Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove.
www.cnbc.com
Lmao this is quite the change in tune.
This was certainly the case very early on, but I think many many more people are going to be cautious about any symptoms now, and probably have been for a while.
It's kiiiiinda not, or not quite as much as it sounds, but both the WHO and the news are just absolutely shit at this.Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is 'very rare,' WHO says
Government responses should focus on detecting and isolating infected people with symptoms, said the WHO's Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove.
Lmao this is quite the change in tune.
The article itself isn't too much new—we were never really sure how prevalent asymptomatic spread was, but we knew it was possible and at least happening sometimes. This article is pretty much just saying it may not be a major reason for spread, even though it can still happen. So policy-wise, isolating symptomatic people should both be manageable and very effective.
It doesn't really mean you're 100% OK if you're in contact with an asymptomatic person.
And remember that "asymptomatic" means straight-up no noticeable symptoms, not "feeling a bit under the weather but functional".
Last edited:
No way. I specifically remember the CDC and others stating viral shed was just as bad when asymptomatic which was one of the reasons the virus was so hard to contain. This would be a total reversal on that. I've been on top of this since day one. They were absolutely adamant about asymptomatic virility.
Could be that it's just flat out harder to transmit asymptomatically even if viral loads are similar due to lack of coughing/sneezing.
But I don't know if this information they're finding through contact tracing is largely due to social distancing and mask usage. If things just went back to normal maybe we see a jump in asymptomatic transmission?
But I don't know if this information they're finding through contact tracing is largely due to social distancing and mask usage. If things just went back to normal maybe we see a jump in asymptomatic transmission?
Maybe this 3% isn't accurate. Asymptomatic people probably don't get tested as much as the symptomatic poeple.
true, it's just 3% of positive cases , most of them are tested because of contact tracing
I take my eye off of the coronavirus news for a few days, given other events in the news cycle, and I come back and see that the global outbreak is worsening still.
Bulletin for the
French situation for the 08/06:
~220k tests done per week (capacity of 700k) , 1.5% of positives
R0 : 0.76 (March 15: 2.8 , May 11 "reopening": 0.8 )
154188 confirmed cases + 211 in 24H
hospital:
12315 hospitalized -146 in 24 H (145 entries)
1024 in intensive care -29 in 24 H (23 entries)
18859 dead + 54 in 24 H
Care homes:
37405 cases
10350 dead
Total 29209 deaths +54 in 24H
Hospital graphs:
ICU entries:
French situation for the 08/06:
~220k tests done per week (capacity of 700k) , 1.5% of positives
R0 : 0.76 (March 15: 2.8 , May 11 "reopening": 0.8 )
154188 confirmed cases + 211 in 24H
hospital:
12315 hospitalized -146 in 24 H (145 entries)
1024 in intensive care -29 in 24 H (23 entries)
18859 dead + 54 in 24 H
Care homes:
37405 cases
10350 dead
Total 29209 deaths +54 in 24H
Hospital graphs:
ICU entries:
It's still a partial opening, schools aren't opened for example, cinemas neither, and gym/restaurants etc... have limited capacity. What changed lately is that it is now possible to move between regions. But considering southern regions had like 0 cases and all the cases are in the north, breaking isolation doesn't seems the best choice.
People who never show symptoms is kinda rare looking at some published examples of contact tracing, but the problem is you can still give it to other people before you show symptoms.
And I swear there are hard documented cases of people getting sick even though they weren't around anyone who was symptomatic.
Very confusing.
Hospitalizations in NC are continuing to rise dramatically; the numbers today are an all-time high and tomorrow's number is even worse. Thankfully most hospitals in the state still have room in both ICU and inpatient units, but this state reopened so much faster than it should have. Phase 2 started on May 22nd so I wonder if we're seeing the result of that now.
It's not just hospitalizations that are increasing, but also the % positive. It's crazy to see people in here reporting 2-3% positive test rates in their states. NC hit 10% this weekend and is currently hovering around 9%.
It's not just hospitalizations that are increasing, but also the % positive. It's crazy to see people in here reporting 2-3% positive test rates in their states. NC hit 10% this weekend and is currently hovering around 9%.
