do you blame'em after 2016 shitfest that was the presidential electionYou gotta be careful with live forecasts, one way or another. They're a good indicator, but volatile.
So don't freak out one way or another, too much.
Nate SIlver posted a pretty good take on regarding the NYT election tracker back during the Alabama special election:
The Upshot's model shows good news for Jones, but it has also been swinging around a fair bit. A few minutes ago, they had him with a 90 percent chance of winning, but that probability is now back down to 67 percent.
I really admire what the Upshot folks are trying to do, but it's also worth noting that building a live-updating model based on partial returns is a really hard problem. Among other things, its hard to calibrate your estimates of uncertainty based on empirical data, because (to put this in a nontechnical way) every state and every election is different. So I'd keep a watchful eye on the Upshot's dials to get an overall sense of how things are trending, but I wouldn't take the probabilities too literally, at least until later in the night.
Remember guys, it's modeling, shit ain't easy, but that don't mean there's no use for it. Don't disparage it, just as you shouldn't put too much faith in it. Think of it as another tool to let you know how the night is going.
Just as you shouldn't freak out if it says a hurricane is going to land in your area a week and a half away, you shouldn't loose your mind when it comes to the model predicting races early on. That doesn't mean you shouldn't keep an eye on it.
Warnings become bans if the user has received warnings for other things. Also looks like pessimism wasn't all that unwise tonight.A warning, specifically, if I recall, right? There's nothing wrong with warning people. It helps set the tone and can even be used as a friendly reminder. It's not like they were asking for a banning, and If I'm wrong on that, you can call me out on it. I think you're overreacting.
The economy.Seriously how are people still voting for Republicans after the shit show that has been these past 2 years?
I mean, rightly so
Anyone who can relax through this is part lizard.
SeeJesus fucking christ the 538 house forecast is all over the goddamn place what the fuck it just doubled in favor of democrats
Blame us. Blame us right fucking now.
I refuse to relax after 2016
Lmfao it's called sample size
Yeah I'm gonna have to bail on this thread.A quick glance at this page is the reason why I can't watch any election night coverage or follow this thread, just like in 2016.
Makes my anxiety jump through the roof.
No shit. We've been traumatized since election night.
What kind of shitty algorithm is 538 using when it keeps on flipping the whole time?
I'm a leftist but the Dem party showed their colors in 2016 by squashing Bernie in favor of a corporate war monger.
If there is a time to be humbled, it's now.