SF + speaker and deputies technically don't vote, so 320 is the working majority. Therefore absolute minimum the tories would need is 312, down 6 from last election. This seems quite unlikely to happen, less than 10% chance for sure.
Like the DUP are forming a majority with Boris after he stabbed them so viciously in the back.
So what you're saying is that people can never change their mind. I don't think that checks out.
Right, that's what I thought. That's what sort of makes the math seem fuzzy... yes, it could be a hung parliament, and yes, the DUP is unhappy, but at the end of the day I think they'd much prefer Boris to a Jezza PM.
Depends how much they hate a border with the UK. I can imagine they hate it very, very much.
Well looking at 2001 and 1997; 1997 had a couple of polls quite close the result (within 2%), 2001 also had a couple of polls within 2% in the last few days. 2005 also had a poll on the last day that was 2% away.
There was actually a decent chance that because they only pulled out of Tory safe seats and were mainly competing for votes with the Tories that they might end up inadvertently helping Labour hold on to some seats.
They're a nationalist party that runs in the UK parliamentary seats to protest the fact that they're even part of the UK. Their voters know what they're getting when they vote for them -- they do not think that NI should be in the United Kingdom, so this is their way of making their nationalist voices heard through abstentionism.
They're a legitimate party who are voted in as representatives of the nationalist vote.
Absolutely, the chance of labour being able to govern on their own is about 0.001% at this point. We're all cheering on the SNP against the Tories (and the lib dems - fuck em) today.
And yet abstention is still a tacit form of approval by reducing the numbers needed to succeed. If they wanted to defend the union they'd vote down Boris every time.
A vote in the commons against Boris isn't a vote for Labour tho
