Exact opposite. Quarantining measures help spread it out since it's already in the population. What the UK is doing will essentially flood their systems in the coming weeks.
Exact opposite. Quarantining measures help spread it out since it's already in the population. What the UK is doing will essentially flood their systems in the coming weeks.
'exactly. This is past containable already so it's about how you manage the inevitable spread
It's not bad analysis but in the regards to the healthcare system being overwhelmed it just says that will be addressed in another paper. What we've seen in practice if you think cancelling events is bad for morale....try completely overwhelming the hospitals and now you have people not only people from corvid dying but anyone who needs medical attention for anything is at risk.
In both real world places this happened they felt pressure to do something and ended up they basically went into total lockdown anyway.
Also the paper does mention stuff like doing reassessments of strategy throughout the process ...which I would hope would include data from other countries.
That is there plan, they think its some kind of race and we'll end up stronger than others at the end, instead of a wheezing struggling depressed country. I only hope Boris and his cabinet gets it and is fucked by it.
To add to this, and the general, very understandable, fear in this thread, the government pulled a surprising move that shocked me, they delayed the elections. The self serving, power hungry at all costs tories pulled the one of the real chances of power they have and to further the social experiment. They took heavy losses last year and I can bet my bottom dollar they wanted the Seats back after the GE win last year.
I mean, people, the football, fucking football, has been closed for weeks and extremely likely months. We are a football mad nation, it's no coincidence last week the government and the newly hired experts met them and very likely applied pressure to close the matches down. If they just want to get this over with, then the footie would stay on, same with the London marathon.
The three big events go against the eh fuck it, let them all get infected vibe.
DO NOT NOW OR EVER trust the tory bastards, I don't, however I have confidance in the actual 2 people running the show, the chief medical officer and science officer. They have NOT ruled anything out, we already had matt Hancock, the turd, come out on national tv and say point blank we will likely be seeing full scale lockdowns of cities and possibly the UK. They once again advised about school closures and we have had schools preparing for mass closures very soon.
This is all, well almost all, in the 28 page goverment action plan many experts were heavily involved in and now in charge of. That plan is public for all to see . The Rank amateur Tories have given them an effective blank cheque and move the fuck out of the way to the other projects they are spending.
That was damn clear to see last night.
I'm not quite sure why people are referencing Cummings too, that psycho is out of the picture for now, he has his bags of money for his own research projects set in stone thanks to the budge, he has nothing to do with the response to the epidemic.
Its fucking horrendous what it going on, and I don't really expect my post to register for many people. The fear and scared feelings are totally understandable with a tory shower of a gov.
Nobody really knows.
Most likely that you can catch it again but the symptons will be milder.
The virus has already spread and is unstoppable from going right through the population so herd immunity is going to come into play. The plan now is to slow the spread of the virus by stopping mass gatherings.
The problem with Boris's plan is that he waited too long to prevent a run away crisis like in Italy. The incubation time is 2 weeks, major complications show themselves in around 18 days (at least that is what happened in China). And there is no widespread testing to know when the rate of infections fall. You can't just rely on the death count since that seems to be massively skewed by demographics.
We need widespread testing in the population like South Korea did so we know what the trends on daily infection rates. How else will we know when herd immunity takes hold if we don't have the data?
Looking at the cited source...
Seems to be "Well, we've historically seen an association between people gathering together and transmission, buuuuuut we still haven't done a randomized controlled trial yet!" With a respiratory illness. Gee, I wonder why?
This comes across as willful ignorance to me. We know that people can be asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic while still transmitting the disease. We know the diseases is transmitted through the air or surface to surface contact. We know that people are getting the disease from other people. We know the disease is spreading faster in more crowded conditions (like a nursing home or a cruise ship). Ignoring that COVID-19 is not an influenza pandemic, the idea that people getting together in close proximity won't speed up transmission is fucking laughable.
The government had nothing to do with the football stopping. The FA were forced into the move when players were testing positive for the virus.
The government haven't banned mass gatherings. The last day of Cheltenham went ahead today with tens of thousands in attendance.
Was feeling calmer somewhat after reading a bit more, and then seeing all of today's developments condensed on the 10pm News has me spooked again lol
Just mentioned on BBC that a ban on mass gatherings may be forthcoming - nothing official but rumoured.
Just mentioned on BBC that a ban on mass gatherings may be forthcoming - nothing official but rumoured.
The UK pandemic response seems to argue that we can't make any conclusions about an association between influenza transmission and mass gatherings without randomized controlled trials. Observational evidence linking the two just isn't enough.
I would redirect them to this paper: "Parachute use to prevent death and major trauma related to gravitational challenge: systematic review of randomized controlled trials."
I would redirect them to this paper: "Parachute use to prevent death and major trauma related to gravitational challenge: systematic review of randomized controlled trials."
They're not slowing down the spread whatsoever, the NHS won't be able to cope well even if they did, let alone their current action of doing fuck all. If this goes on for longer it's tantamount to genocide.
I hope people remember the reason why the NHS wasn't able to cope and save their loved ones.
I hope people remember the reason why the NHS wasn't able to cope and save their loved ones.
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Sometime in the future.
But remember there is no mass testing, people are being told not to call 111. The government will not have any statistical basis to change policy because they aren't collecting data.
I'm guessing the play here is to push the NHS far passed it's breaking point to "prove" that public medicine is shit and that the UK should move to a US-style private system.
Doing simple math, if the 60% on England population gets infected, considering the (actual) fatality rate, there could be more then 1 million death? Or even more if the fatality rate gets the same as Italy (5% right now). And this if ICU doesn't collapse. In that case the fatality rate could get higher.
UK to ban mass gatherings in coronavirus U-turn
UK to ban mass gatherings in coronavirus U-turn
Measure likely to come into effect next week after sporting bodies and others act unilaterally
www.theguardian.com
Official now.
(That was quick!)
Edit: from article
Hours later, in a significant change of tack, Downing Street signalled it was preparing to stop large public events, including sports fixtures and concerts, to alleviate the pressure on police and the ambulance service. It did not specify what size of event would be affected, and the timing of the clampdown has yet to be decided, but it is expected to come into force in a week's time.
Emergency legislation due to be passed by the government next week is expected to include compensation for organisations forced to cancel events.
Whitehall sources said the country would move toward widespread home-working, although details had yet to be thrashed out.
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It's good, but the government being forced into doing something by overwhelming pressure doesn't really help confidence. Well no, because lol at the idea that anyone who loves them will have their confidence shaken even by boris slapping them in the face and going through their pockets for loose change, but some people might actually think.UK to ban mass gatherings in coronavirus U-turn
Measure likely to come into effect next week after sporting bodies and others act unilaterally
Official now.
(That was quick!)
Try not to die overnight, people!
pfftUK to ban mass gatherings in coronavirus U-turn
Measure likely to come into effect next week after sporting bodies and others act unilaterally
Official now.
(That was quick!)
Edit: from article
Hours later, in a significant change of tack, Downing Street signalled it was preparing to stop large public events, including sports fixtures and concerts, to alleviate the pressure on police and the ambulance service. It did not specify what size of event would be affected, and the timing of the clampdown has yet to be decided, but it is expected to come into force in a week's time.
Emergency legislation due to be passed by the government next week is expected to include compensation for organisations forced to cancel events.
Whitehall sources said the country would move toward widespread home-working, although details had yet to be thrashed out.
This thread is a shit show. The response is based off a big white paper that's been publicly available for years. Every response is basically I hate Boris Johnson and the conservatives, all they are trying to do is destroy the NHS. Embarrassing. It would be nice to see an adult conversation about the scientific approach rather than political point scoring with accusations of attempted mass murder.
UK to ban mass gatherings in coronavirus U-turn
Measure likely to come into effect next week after sporting bodies and others act unilaterally
Official now.
(That was quick!)
Edit: from article
Hours later, in a significant change of tack, Downing Street signalled it was preparing to stop large public events, including sports fixtures and concerts, to alleviate the pressure on police and the ambulance service. It did not specify what size of event would be affected, and the timing of the clampdown has yet to be decided, but it is expected to come into force in a week's time.
Emergency legislation due to be passed by the government next week is expected to include compensation for organisations forced to cancel events.
Whitehall sources said the country would move toward widespread home-working, although details had yet to be thrashed out.
lol fucking u-turns already
OP
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Political point-scoring about the Tories trying to destroy the NHS! "Attempted mass murder!" Yeah, not like they've been trying to decrease the surplus disabled population for the last fucking decade.
The Iain Duncan Smiths - "Girlfriend in a Coma (She's Fit for Work)"
Stream the album Devil's Tunes: The Very Worst of The Iain Duncan Smiths here: https://soundcloud.com/theiainduncans... Lyrics: Girlfriend in a coma, I know,...
www.youtube.com
Their benefits policies before this have been "attempted mass murder."
What's the scientific approach? Ballooning the infection rate so we get a loosley explained "herd immunity"? Are we listening to scientists or farmers? Let's get everyone infected, so less people get infected.
Also, if we accelerate the infection now ... the NHS can cope better later.
??
Do you think it's really only a handful of cases and we need to increase it? There's probably a hundred thousand people with it and don't know it. They aren't testing. Everyone is going to work and their kids to school. Symptoms don't even develop for multiple days, and initially present flu like symptoms. Think about airports, underground, busses, workplaces, schools. It spreads in the air, like a normal flu.
They're telling doctors to go in to work while they can still spread the infection, as long as they don't look too unwell.
Simply genius. Too smart for Europe.
Also, if we accelerate the infection now ... the NHS can cope better later.
??
Do you think it's really only a handful of cases and we need to increase it? There's probably a hundred thousand people with it and don't know it. They aren't testing. Everyone is going to work and their kids to school. Symptoms don't even develop for multiple days, and initially present flu like symptoms. Think about airports, underground, busses, workplaces, schools. It spreads in the air, like a normal flu.
They're telling doctors to go in to work while they can still spread the infection, as long as they don't look too unwell.
Simply genius. Too smart for Europe.
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The science behind allowing mass gatherings is that, despite repeated historical observations that mass gatherings are tied with increased flu transmission, there's no new evidence from randomized controlled trials that a bunch of people being together in close conditions will speed up transmission of a respiratory disease.
Which is asinine.
You honestly think the government is trying to use the worst pandemic in a century to destroy the NHS? The fuck is wrong with you.Political point-scoring about the Tories trying to destroy the NHS! Attempted mass murder! Yeah, not like they've been trying to decrease the surplus disabled population for the last fucking decade.
The Iain Duncan Smiths - "Girlfriend in a Coma (She's Fit for Work)"
Stream the album Devil's Tunes: The Very Worst of The Iain Duncan Smiths here: https://soundcloud.com/theiainduncans... Lyrics: Girlfriend in a coma, I know,...
Their benefits policies before this have been attempted mass murder.
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It's LITERALLY WHAT THEY'VE BEEN WORKING TOWARDS FOR THE PAST DECADE. It's not a secret! They've talked about it! They've done their best to do it! The hell country are you living in?
They're not using the pandemic to do it, no, but they've brought the NHS to the point of death with a goal of selling it for parts and privatising everything, do you think they're just... not going to do that because it didn't happen in the normal course of affairs and went over the edge because of a pandemic instead of particularly bad flu season?
I'm not from the UK, but here in the US we had the government literally refusing testing kits from the WHO so they can prop up the economy by underreporting cases.
That the prime minister accepted an award from a think tank whose entire purpose is to destroy the NHS.
That the top govt adviser is psychotic and hired someone who supported eugenics because the govt needs wierdos
That the PM went on TV and said we just need to take it on the chin
That they are failling to take any responsible actions to delay an epidemic
So what's a mass gathering? Just concerts and cinemas etc?
Are schools mass gatherings? Office buildings? Public transport?
The vagueness is ridiculous...but stay tuned until next week and enjoy the weekend!
Are schools mass gatherings? Office buildings? Public transport?
The vagueness is ridiculous...but stay tuned until next week and enjoy the weekend!
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You're delusional. Someone, take him to the infirmary. I am very smart.
Hey, they might have clarified it by the time people wake up. You don't know! They could be hard at work, having realised that oh shit Trump's thinking of cutting us off and taking it seriously and had to rush out a pre-announcement at half ten on a friday night.
Well South Korea and Japan kinda learned from the older coronavirus from 2003, so you could say they knew what to do this time around.
They don't have science. The British Empire invented science. All those backwater, uncivilised countries are scratching around in the dark while our superior country is keeping calm and carrying on.
I should have mentioned this in my original post, but my reason for posting that paper was that it as it predates this current administration by 9 years the response isn't some diabolical scheme by Johnson to cull the weak. Maybe I'm being too optimistic and it's a diabolical scheme thought up by some other bastards.
I hope this somehow works in the best possible way, because the situation here in italy is tragic and honestly our health care system is pretty fucking amazing. People are dying on chairs because beds are full, don't know what's going to happen in the UK. Maybe they are right, maybe you can't contain it and the health care system will fight this, but I'm just seeing a huge human sacrifice for the sake of economy.
I don't think the pandemic response is a diabolical scheme. I do think it's incredibly silly to prioritize the "morale" and economic benefit mass gatherings provide over the real concerns of increased transmission just because those are based on observational evidence.
There is a reason every other country has been locking down.
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It's not a scheme in the "I think the government made the plague on purpose" sense. It is a bunch of bumbling fucking idiots high on the power of having trashed the country for a generation thinking that maybe they can just bull on through this new issue and maybe make a bit of pocket money on the side.
edit: "the first results from tests on animals", excited to see if that's because they're literally finished running the first batch of tests on animals because that takes actual time
edit: "the first results from tests on animals", excited to see if that's because they're literally finished running the first batch of tests on animals because that takes actual time
School closures could wipe 3% from UK GDP, ministers warned
PM is firmly against closures now, but pressure builds to follow other countries’ coronavirus response
www.theguardian.com
The UK economic growth was flat lining in January at 0% before Corona came about.They're desperate to hold the economy together even at the cost of the public's health.