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I mean, I don't think we're fundamentally disagreeing. I'm just saying it's better to take a week rather than a day 😺
crb checks haven't been around for years
they are dbs checks, and they take weeks if you are going to work with vulnerable people and need an enhanced check.
even in normal circumstances
Hancock already seems to be contradicting yesterday's message and telling companies to stay open if they can't work from home
My estate is like a ghost town.....
All apart from the large group of chavs smoking weed on the local park.
All apart from the large group of chavs smoking weed on the local park.
We've had to pull back on a job offer who accepted weeks ago.... Their current employer won't reverse their resignation.. so we've made them a offer of full month's salary... Feel a bit shit about it... They were coming on as a contractor...
We have another due to start in a couple weeks but they are full time and in the end because a) their employer is fucked by covid they basically want them of the payroll and b) the role has taken 7 months to recruit we are going to start them and immediately furlough them till we can induct them properly as we are all WFH ...
Finally we're have some departments that have much reduced workloads and / or are difficult to WFH effectively so they are getting furlough too.
The main aim is come out of the other side with zero redundancies.
Overall this my employer has been great shifting to WFH 2 weeks ago way before many others did and they are just trying to reduce overheads as much as possible to ride out the current situation.
A far contrast to Weather spoons and sports direct being twats
We have another due to start in a couple weeks but they are full time and in the end because a) their employer is fucked by covid they basically want them of the payroll and b) the role has taken 7 months to recruit we are going to start them and immediately furlough them till we can induct them properly as we are all WFH ...
Finally we're have some departments that have much reduced workloads and / or are difficult to WFH effectively so they are getting furlough too.
The main aim is come out of the other side with zero redundancies.
Overall this my employer has been great shifting to WFH 2 weeks ago way before many others did and they are just trying to reduce overheads as much as possible to ride out the current situation.
A far contrast to Weather spoons and sports direct being twats
I don't drive otherwise I would be all over this. I would do the phone thing but I absolutely detest speaking over the phone.
Yeah I'm not great on the phone(ironic working for a telecoms company) but I can cart stuff around no problem
Just planning on logging on each night for a couple hours seeing if there's jobs I can run
Posted? Unfortunately behind a paywall though:
www.ft.com
Apparently it theorises that half of us are already infected and that only 1 in 1000 show any symptoms.
Subscribe to read | Financial Times
News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
www.ft.com
Apparently it theorises that half of us are already infected and that only 1 in 1000 show any symptoms.
Posted? Unfortunately behind a paywall though:
Subscribe to read | Financial Times
News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
Apparently it theorises that half of us are already infected and that only 1 in 1000 show any symptoms.
I mean... unless they have evidence to suggest the coronavirus test is inaccurate does this make any sense? We're testing only those with major symptoms and nowhere near half are positive. Or is the notion that we've all already had it and thus don't show up on tests?
I guess the latter, but I can't see the article.
I know a few people who had a flu-like illness at the end of last year, but not everyone came down with it (even when in contact with them).
I'm not getting my hopes up, but I certainly think it has been circulating around far longer than anyone had imagined.
NHS staff may be being targeted for their ID badges, this is really disgusting.
Posted? Unfortunately behind a paywall though:
Subscribe to read | Financial Times
News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
Apparently it theorises that half of us are already infected and that only 1 in 1000 show any symptoms.
Behind a paywall.
That would be a huge breakthrough if true though? It would also ramp up the need for those antibody tests to be out there asap!
Edit: It doesn't tie in with the tests showing that the vast majority of people do not have it though - although perhaps it has been circulating longer than theorised..
Interesting one to watch .
Edit: Non-paywalled article
Coronavirus 'may have already infected half of UK population'
The study suggests Covid-19 arrived in the UK by mid-January 'at the latest'.
metro.co.uk
If that were true, why would it be surging now? Seems like a strange idea.Posted? Unfortunately behind a paywall though:
Subscribe to read | Financial Times
News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
Apparently it theorises that half of us are already infected and that only 1 in 1000 show any symptoms.
Up to half of the UK population may have already contracted the coronavirus, according to a new study from researchers at the University of Oxford. The study claims the disease reached the UK by mid-January 'at the latest' and appears to counter the modelling at Imperial College London, which the government has based its responsive measures on so far during the pandemic. The research suggests that the disease may have already been prevalent in the UK as much two months earlier than the first case was officially diagnosed. Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford, led the study and says the UK must ramp up antibody testing to discover the true stage of the pandemic in Britain. 'We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,' Gupta told the Financial Times.
Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/24/coro...cted-half-uk-population-12451012/?ito=cbshare
this would be a game changer
how could the death toll have been ignored for a month? I just cant buy it but hope it's true
Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/24/coro...cted-half-uk-population-12451012/?ito=cbshare
this would be a game changer
how could the death toll have been ignored for a month? I just cant buy it but hope it's true
'Confused, dangerous, flippant': rest of world pans PM's handling of coronavirus
Boris Johnson’s breezy and contradictory declarations, similar to those on Brexit, have observers wincing
www.theguardian.com
Something to bear in mind is that our media have been treating the government with kid gloves to avoid the appearance of scare-mongering and acting like vultures in a time of crisis.
Dont like the creeper fuck Hancock but prefer him much more then fucking Bojo, helps he is a much better speaker too.
Hancock is better just by virtue of not being Jeremy fucking cunt.
Today alone. They still NEED better body PPE but cutting off the three main ways to get it, eyes, nose and mouth will make a big difference.
Hancock is better just by virtue of not being Jeremy fucking cunt.
Today alone. They still NEED better body PPE but cutting off the three main ways to get it, eyes, nose and mouth will make a big difference.
The UK death rate is rising pretty quickly. Fitting all the deaths, it gives a doubling time of 2.8 days (95% confidence: 2.6-3.0). It predicts 559 total deaths tomorrow.
However, the numbers just aren't that reliable. Plus, fitting from the first death (5th March) is going to cause uncertainty due to low numbers in the first half of the graph.
Italy's deaths are on a doubling time of 4.4 days, but they've been falling from the trend for the last few days (probably the effects of the lockdown being seen at last.
When Italy had 400-500 deaths, their trend was doubling every 2.3 days.
So we are generally tracking a slower spread than Italy at equivalent times, but our deaths are growing faster than theirs right now (in percent-increase-per-day terms, obviously not in absolute terms).
Here's a spreadsheet. It's messier than the FT's and others, but it lets you mess with the scales and numbers if you copy it to your google drive. Check the tabs at the bottom. It's got a few countries with actual time and a time-shift to overlay the curves and some specific calculations for the UK and Italy.
Note that the trends on this google sheet don't quite match the doubling times above (note: the doubling time = 0.693/[the number before x on the trend line]). That's because google sheets and literally everyone on the internet is using log-transformed linear fits, because they are quick and easy. The values above use a non-linear fit (I pasted some results into the UK kinetics sheet) so it gives the best exponential fit to the real numbers. Using the log-transformed fits introduces a bias in favour of low initial values and a large growth factor (i.e. faster doubling times). It gives the best fit on a log scale, but allows much higher error in the big numbers on an absolute scale.
However, the numbers just aren't that reliable. Plus, fitting from the first death (5th March) is going to cause uncertainty due to low numbers in the first half of the graph.
Italy's deaths are on a doubling time of 4.4 days, but they've been falling from the trend for the last few days (probably the effects of the lockdown being seen at last.
When Italy had 400-500 deaths, their trend was doubling every 2.3 days.
So we are generally tracking a slower spread than Italy at equivalent times, but our deaths are growing faster than theirs right now (in percent-increase-per-day terms, obviously not in absolute terms).
Here's a spreadsheet. It's messier than the FT's and others, but it lets you mess with the scales and numbers if you copy it to your google drive. Check the tabs at the bottom. It's got a few countries with actual time and a time-shift to overlay the curves and some specific calculations for the UK and Italy.
Note that the trends on this google sheet don't quite match the doubling times above (note: the doubling time = 0.693/[the number before x on the trend line]). That's because google sheets and literally everyone on the internet is using log-transformed linear fits, because they are quick and easy. The values above use a non-linear fit (I pasted some results into the UK kinetics sheet) so it gives the best exponential fit to the real numbers. Using the log-transformed fits introduces a bias in favour of low initial values and a large growth factor (i.e. faster doubling times). It gives the best fit on a log scale, but allows much higher error in the big numbers on an absolute scale.
Maybe most people did not experience symptoms, but that's a 'best case' for something like this. We do need those tests ASAP to find out if we had/have it or not. Knowing if we can go back to work as normal will be helpful for a lot of people and our sanity, but it won't be happening anytime soon.
'Confused, dangerous, flippant': rest of world pans PM's handling of coronavirus
Boris Johnson’s breezy and contradictory declarations, similar to those on Brexit, have observers wincing
Something to bear in mind is that our media have been treating the government with kid gloves to avoid the appearance of scare-mongering and acting like vultures in a time of crisis.
My parents were talking about how Boris would be going down as one of the best PMs in history at dinner.
Which I just don't understand considering how awful he has been at handling any of this
That FT article isn't paywalled - they opened it up like the rest of their COVID coverage. Here is the report. It seems somewhat suspect - it rests on the assumption that only a very small number of people will be hospitalised, which somewhat puts the cart before the horse - what we need to know is how many people will get seriously ill!
This makes no sense though. We're seeing the rate of infection climb in proportion to how it did in other countries. The NHS would surely have already been overwhelmed. It's hard to ignore a death toll when its headed towards hundreds and almost a thousand a day elsewhere.
we need to know when the virus entered the uk
it's clear that it's very easy to transmit, so it's plausible that many more people have it than thought
and anecdotally people I work with are adamant they had something similar in dec/ jan.
the antibody tests will be crucial at determining this
Their model assumes that only a very small number of people will get hospitalised, and that we are only seeing hospitalisation now due to the virus penetrating vulnerable populations.
Yeah, thinking about it logically, I'm very skeptical.
You'd expect cases to be consistent across regions if it's been circulating for so long - London wouldn't appear 2-3 weeks ahead for instance.
Will be interesting to see where this goes though.
You'd expect cases to be consistent across regions if it's been circulating for so long - London wouldn't appear 2-3 weeks ahead for instance.
Will be interesting to see where this goes though.
I guess that makes a bit more sense. It seems so unlikely that it could have dodged the vulnerable for so long while spreading amongst everyone else though, not to mention that non vulnerable people have been getting hospitalised with it.
I know a lot of people who got sick in Dec/Jan, but it's impossible to know if it was just seasonal flu or not.
Well... this YouGov poll seems to back up their opinion.
Coronavirus reaction pushes PM’s popularity into positive territory | YouGov
For the first time since becoming Prime Minister in July, Johnson’s fans outweigh his detractors – but he remains less popular than Chancellor Rishi Sunak
yougov.co.uk
That article about it being in UK much earlier doesn't make sense. Think the amount of people who will see their elderly and vulnerable members of the family at Christmas time. If a lot of people had it back then we'd have seen a huge rise in cases way before now. Doesn't add up.
I got what I presume was seasonal flu in mid December, it didn't match Corona symptoms. 4 day fever, followed by 2 days of profuse snot and loss of voice. Lack of appetite throughout. But no cough or sore throat.
Interestingly (or not) in a group of 4 of us in close quarters (on holiday in UK), only the 2 eldest showed symptoms. Me (male, 32), and someone 2 years younger (female, 30). The 2 younger ones being 26 and 21 got away with it. I was by far the worst with it.
Well... this YouGov poll seems to back up their opinion.
Coronavirus reaction pushes PM’s popularity into positive territory | YouGov
For the first time since becoming Prime Minister in July, Johnson’s fans outweigh his detractors – but he remains less popular than Chancellor Rishi Sunak
Ugh I hate this country
Re: Oxford uni article:
It's anecdotal but I was really ill in December, had the worst flu I've ever had, and it lasted weeks. Didn't think much of it at the time because nothing much was known about coronavirus at the time. Starting to wonder if I had it then.
It's anecdotal but I was really ill in December, had the worst flu I've ever had, and it lasted weeks. Didn't think much of it at the time because nothing much was known about coronavirus at the time. Starting to wonder if I had it then.
I got the most ill I've felt in years (ever?) On boxing Day. Remember lying in the shower, crying my eyes out not being able to get warm. Only lasted a few days but God I was rough.
It's impossible to say 🤷♂️. I got the worst flu of my life in 2017 and it knocked me out for a week, and I couldn't speak for the week after either. Sometimes it just hits you like that.
Business as usual for Sky tomorrow pretty much.
A fleet of 3800(ish) Super Spreaders all over the country.
A fleet of 3800(ish) Super Spreaders all over the country.
It's bollocks, we would have seen a massive uptick in hospitalisations of people showing symptoms of the virus like we're seeing now; not just here but everywhere else. It is not uncommon for people to contract seasonal flu while showing only minor or even no symptoms
They should employ an emergency task force of Rose West, Piers Morgan, the piano player from East17, and the woman who pushed the cat in to a wheelie bin.
When things get really bad it will be easy to pass the blame on.
It's really premature to see how good anyone is doing. Give it a couple of months once we're at the tail end of the pandemic.Well... this YouGov poll seems to back up their opinion.
Coronavirus reaction pushes PM’s popularity into positive territory | YouGov
For the first time since becoming Prime Minister in July, Johnson’s fans outweigh his detractors – but he remains less popular than Chancellor Rishi Sunak
Also, I ended up not coming to the UK after all...my wife is still there, though. We've been apart for almost 2 months now and now it seems likely that it'll be another two months. :(
My mum works for DWP. Said her office on average gets 150 new claims a week. Last week they went past 1000.
The Oxford study lacks a control. I think you can easily make the early part of the death curve fit an equation with high infected numbers and low hospitalisation, or visa versa.
For the conclusion to have any weight, it needs to be compared to an equivalent model, with the hospitalisation rate set much higher.
The study is obviously wrong because 90 percent of people tested are negative, and that's even with testing heavily weighted towards those with serious symptoms.
I'm sure the true case numbers are much higher than the reported ones, but they won't be a significant fraction of the population.
For the conclusion to have any weight, it needs to be compared to an equivalent model, with the hospitalisation rate set much higher.
The study is obviously wrong because 90 percent of people tested are negative, and that's even with testing heavily weighted towards those with serious symptoms.
I'm sure the true case numbers are much higher than the reported ones, but they won't be a significant fraction of the population.