I don't think that's technically possible this time around? I'd have thought that we'd be getting more base storage by now though, increase value a bit but... nothing?
Sony’s PS5 sales are down 29% YoY for the last quarter, missed 21M (20.8M) mark for FY2023, FY2024 target 18M
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I don't think that's technically possible this time around? I'd have thought that we'd be getting more base storage by now though, increase value a bit but... nothing?
Is your assessment of 18M for FY2024 positive, too? Just curious.
It was 25m, then 21m. They reached 20.8m, missing by just 200k units. This isn't doom and gloom.
They expect a decline in hardware sales for FY2024, which could widen the gap between PS4 and PS5, but then again, they're expecting major releases from PS Studios in FY25/FY26, not to forget GTA6.
Its behind by like 800k, despite being fairly more expensive. Not 2m.
Seemingly it's not possible, that's why they raised the digital model to $449 because at $399 they were barely making anything and the BOM hasn't come down in the last 3 years.
They don't sell at a loss though, they've been making money on console units months after launch, and there have been various iterations since then that must have decreased the cost of manufacturing. So i don't see what's standing in the way for the latest model of PS5.
Looked at the Wrong number 900k 59.3 vs 60.2. Still that's almost a million difference and PS5 is projected to decline faster. Last year was the best chance to make up the gap.
Target missed by less than 1%. Idk how corporate views these things but I'd assume they aren't necessarily freaking out about that. I mean they were RIGHT there.
Where are the receipts on this? I know the processor has changed process nodes but what else? And it not being possible because Sony isn't doing it isn't exactly a convincing argument, they might just want to make as much money as long as they can get away with it.
Except the Q4 revenue and operating income are all up against Q4 the prior year. It's behind by less than 1 million, it would be 2 million next year if the 18 million projection is met exactly though.
Yes, for a console this far into its life cycle that has not had a price cut and even saw price increases. It keeps it on track to comfortably break 100 million. If price reductions are possible down the line and GTA6 has a significant impact, I would think the subsequent decline would be slower than for PS4 too.
That might not actually be the case, someone pointed out in their forecast for the next year they cite decrease in hardware loses due to lower unit sales as a positive.
I think the same. The release of GTA6 is going to be a worldwide phenomenon. I know quite a few people who just wait for this game to upgrade.
The gen is far from over.
PS5 is also projected to go on longer (probably 8 years as the main system vs 7) so don't think they are worried much by that. Biggest issue is the longer they can't cut the price the bigger that gap will grow (GTA 6 will help, but only so much if the console is still 500+), if PS5 is only single digit millions behind PS4 going into 2028 I think it will over take it.
Well the stock hasn't taken a steep drop yet (like last FY report); its even up right now, so seems their ok with it. Granted its still early in the day.
I think because of COVID and how this gen started, the trajectory of the standard console is going to be a bit wonky. The supply issues made the start slower and then it got an explosion last year due to supply relief. There is going to be declines that will slow down the pace of PS5 compared to PS4, but it may catch up when actual price cuts start to happen or other software hits (GTA6, more exclusives from studios like Naughty Dog). Plus the PS5 successor potentially arriving a year later may also make up the remaining gap. Which isn't to say great, but just to say there's a lot of different factors out there, it's not a simple mirror of the PS4.
I mean, considering the effective inflation since 2020, PS5 staying at $499 got an effective price cut to the tune of $100.
It's not going to change the trajectory of console sales. Sony will know better than anyone how a GTA launch with co marketing will affect sales and they are still predicting a YoY decrease in units to 18 million
This is just the natural console cycle, peakiing in year 4 isn't unusual
The mid gen consoles are aimed more at enthusiasts where price is typically less of an issue. Plenty of people on here are getting a PS5 pro and cost (unless it is just outrageous) won't keep them from doing so.
That is only on the basis that GTA6 is out before 31 March 2025, and all we have officially is that it's planned for 2025. I doubt Sony know when it's coming with any degree of certainty, I'd be very surprised if that's been factored in for the forecast.
I mean if they hit their projections. The gap grows to 2mil by end of the fiscal year. Further, I'm not sure GTA6 will be a massive boost as I imagine most GTA gamers have moved over at this point in the console life.
No guarantee GTA 6 actually releasing this FY, marketing will for sure ramp up though, which could have a decent impact for the people still just playing the CoDs, FIFAs and Fortnites on PS4/XB1.
It's that the longtime model of Sony's primary division is hitting a ceiling gen over gen in terms of its ability to grow in number of users to monetize.
The fact that it has staying power amidst all the challenges and external factors is a strength and a testament to the brand, but it's not a significant growth vehicle to attract more players to monetize. Something has to change and I believe Sony has options to explore in terms of expanding their reach beyond their console.
That's one very narrow way to look at the information in this thread.
Sure, that's a possibility too though I think GTA is truly big enough that there's still a number of people out there who'd get caught up in the zeitgeist but don't have a console yet. But the point is a number of factors are different and some may soften the declines and others may accelerate them.
Agreed, no one is being forced to boil a complex thing down to only 150 characters or whatever.
Its almost as if the details are too complex to get across in a single tweet and image. Or indeed in a thread based purely off a single tweet.
Almost like you need a lot more data to understand the numbers in context to come to an educated understanding.
After all if it were enough to understand then that would be all investors need, they wouldn't need a call explaining it in detail.
I work in a medical company in second level support, and we have monthly calls that need to go into so much detail to explain why (for example) a particular device may see even a small increase in service calls, since simply a picture of a graph and saying "Service calls for device x up 25% versus prior month" tell us nothing.
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Can always count on Matt and others with some added context.
Damn, you ain't lying.....literally surging from a few hours ago.
I mean.....overall it isn't as bad as some are trying to make it.
Ah ok. Holiday 2025 would probably be better for Sony - maybe they can get the hardware price down by then to tempt in the more casual crowd
Ah, but you have to be able to follow the basic conversation if you want to start making accusations. You're creating talking points then arguing against them. I never said GTA6 would sell the majority of it's sales on day 1 for PS5.
What I said, was that the ceiling of 90m for PS5 is a ridiculous number, especially if you factor in that particular release. Even if GTA6 didn't exist, PS5 would still surpass that number. So I don't really see a need to respond to the narrative you created and started arguing against. No one handwaved the issues the console market faces as a whole.
I will make one comment on your GTA6 narrative though, GTA5 was coming off of a game that sold like 20-30m, GTA6 will have a much bigger start coming off of 5. Again, this is something I'm willing to bet a lot of money on. Still not really relevant to what I said though.
Yeah, also sounds like 2025-26 will be when their big 1st party studios really start dropping consistently too, so getting the PS5 set up for a decent price drop could give it a good second wind on the back of GTA 6 carrying it through 2025 (with hype + release).
No the report isn't bad, but the surge probably has to do with the announced stock split and share buy back. Technical, but it makes the stock move.
there goes peoples shareholders are upset they missed their forecast for PS narrative lol. Sony as a whole beat EPS. Which is prob why it's positive. Last quarter was a miss.
I think it's pretty damn impressive to have sold 60 million units of a $500 console in just a little over 3 years.
Sony isn't focused on having PS5 sell more than PS4 due to tight margins, but they aren't really behind by much despite everything going on.
Sony isn't focused on having PS5 sell more than PS4 due to tight margins, but they aren't really behind by much despite everything going on.
See comment above for the main reason, but another ironic reason of a better profit outlook is because they expect to sell less PS5's. Hardware losses are that big of a drag still:
"But profits are forecast to rise 7% as the lower sales will mean smaller hardware losses and as it expects higher revenue from its PlayStation Plus subscription service."
I had a theory about that for something else that's off topic, but it makes sense.
yeah because component costs are high still, also why the reforecast end lower because they kept prices high to compensate and chose additional revenue over pushing units.I expect they may have a smaller decline in the next 3 years than what the PS4 was as well since it seems like it will be later gen then will have deeper cuts as long as components go down in price. There's a lot of moving parts with this stuff.
the knock on effect is people prob will see games have higher prices, and sales wont be as good as in the past in the near future at least.
also shit a stock split? Yeah this is a good time to buy in before they split.
Absolutely no chance the PS5 doesn't outsell the PS4. The PS4 had its legs cut out from under it because Sony needed to focus on producing PS5s during the pandemic
Edit: not to mention the Xbox S/X is MUCH weaker competition than the XBO and One X were.
There is absolutely a chance, it is already behind for one and there is most likely no price cut coming for the PS5 anytime soon, if ever (outside promotions). That is very different from how the PS4's life cycle went.
Are you misremembering me for someone else? I never said anything about 90 million PS5's. I did say, that they will stay behind PS4 launch aligned if this was their peak year. (And implying, that GTA6 won't change that.)
It will still sell to the same console audience that is stagnating. An audience, that is launch aligned way below its previous userbase (because of the box decline, Nintendo has no bearing on GTA6)
An Audience that was spread out over 3 generations and PC.
What do you think GTA6 will sell on Playstation in its first year, and what would be the impact to the console sales? Is Sony already predicting the impact of the release in its next forecast?
For me, I will think it will sell better than the GTA5 launch, but nothing that would impact console sales in any meaningful way because many people who will buy GTA6 already have the console.
GTA5 is basically a GaaS at this point, and was for the majority of its lifetime. The majority of people who want to play it for the story will be there day 1. But people who play it for the GaaS aspect (this includes double and triple dippers who upgraded to a new generation every time) will be harder to convince to buy it day 1 for 80 bucks.
And no, I also don't believe the game will (finally?) convince PC players to get a PS5.
At least not at 500 bucks for the then-inferior base console. Not even 400.
Big doubt. GTAV is one of those evergreen and wide reaching games. Its the type of game that some will play exclusively and not upgrade their respective console/computer until the next one comes out. Couple that with the fact that its been a decade (or more) since V, and how hype will be exploding come release, I cant imagine that console sales will not be impacted at all... this'll be the most hyped game of the gen, of the decade, and probably be the biggest selling game ever (well, pretty much). Lets not pretend it'll have no impact, that seems incredibly naive.
It's barely behind to the extent that the number isn't statistically significant- and that's with the PS5 having years long supply problems that prevented Sony from selling to market demand.
I don't see price cuts as being critical for sales, honestly. Competition from Xbox has completely collapsed outside the US and even within the states its on life support. There IS no "pro level" console coming from Xbox either, so Sony has that market to themselves where they were splitting it with the One X last generation. Somewhere between 20 to 25% of PS4s sold were "pro" units and this number will be higher this time around.
And again- this generation is expected to go on longer than last before a replacement arrives and when one does, Sony does not have an incentive to immediately stop selling the PS5 when the PS6 shows up due to component shortages.
There is simply no realistic possibility this sells under the PS4.
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You...quoted me claiming I was handwaving the industry issues facing PS5. I was responding to someone claiming that said issues would prevent PS5 from topping 90m in total sales.
My point was that the issues that are preventing Xbox Series from hitting 50m aren't impacting Sony in the same way, and that 90m is a ridiculous number to cap PS5 sales at based on that.
Like I said, you have to follow the conversation and look at what I was responding to before you accuse me of handwaving anything.
I would guess GTA6 would sell over 25m in the first year for PS5, and move an extra 2-3m consoles at least.
But again, I only mentioned GTA in relation to the post I replied to, stating that PS5 would cap out at 90m. That aint happening even without GTA6, it's definitely not happening with it.
If Sony meets its forecast, it will grow from being 900k behind to 2m behind this year.
Think you have the incorrect read on concentrating on competition vs the market. Has nothing to do with Xbox right now. It has everything to do with the market stagnating heavily. Even Sony is forecasting it to fall significantly behind (and that includes with the Pro being released...)
Yeah honestly being one million under the PS4 when the PS4 starting to be discounted to $200 occasionally at this time while the PS5 is holding at $500 with discounts only going to $400 is a fantastic performance. Seeing as the console will have an extra year on the market compared to the PS4 and I doubt Sony will shut it down as fast as they did with the PS4 makes me confident it'll beat it
How can you even say this when the game sells literally every month near the top of the charts in almost every region? It's a cultural phenomenon, those still in last gen will have no choice but to move on to the systems that it's on.
Hardware sales will see a bump later in the year is my bet. A price cut will follow when PS5 Pro drops.