Maybe. Or the Pro could just end up being $600 lol
The price of everything has just become untenable these days
Sony’s PS5 sales are down 29% YoY for the last quarter, missed 21M (20.8M) mark for FY2023, FY2024 target 18M
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Maybe. Or the Pro could just end up being $600 lol
The price of everything has just become untenable these days
Sony isn't forecasting that, and the comments about "improved profits due to lower PS5 hardware sales" says all you need to know about price cuts anyways.
Next year is not "in total" and looking at a one year forecast in which they are intentionally keeping price high to increase profitability is not nearly sufficient to determine lifetime sales of the console.
And you're making my point for me. Even if the market is TOTALLY stagnant, taking market share from their competitor (which they will) means the PS5 outsells the PS4 even in an environment where there is literally zero growth in console sales.
Growth would have to be significantly negative, not just stagnant for that kind of miss.
So they're going to fall behind only further to magically come ahead again? I strongly doubt that. As the gen goes on, the gap between PS5 and mid-end PC grows larger too and for a lot of people that means cheaper entry and cheaper games compared to a console. They'd have to have PS5 on sale for several more years compared to PS4 to close the gap if it increases further this year.
You are equating stagnant to zero sum, which is an incorrect definition. Both consoles will fall short most likely of the previous generation.
the number of marketshare gained from Xbox faltering will be pretty minimal
hardware sales will be lower in the end just because of the nature of the market right now compared to last gen. people had a lot more disposable income to spend on games that wasn't in such heavy competition with other modes of entertainment/gaming. and the price for the PS5 won't go down significantly.
the console market overall is stagnating, not just Xbox
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LOL. It's Tom Warren, I would expect nothing else from him.
Other twits and takes have been posted, but personally, I find Shinobi's summary much more informative.
View: https://twitter.com/shinobi602/status/1790389572595020015
Not magic, eventually the price of the system will come down, system movers like GTA 6 will drop, Xbox will fall further behind relative to where the XBO was and the Pro 5 will outsell the Pro 4 because it has no competitor.
And yes, the PS5 selling for several more years than the PS4 is obvious because the PS4 production immediately went almost to zero because of pandemic era component shortages in 2020 which the PS5 doesn't have to worry about.
60 million of the 160 million units the PS2 sold happened AFTER the PS3 hit shelves, and the PS1 also moved a significant amount of units. PS3 (poor sales and unit losses) and PS4 (pandemic component shortages) were the exceptions.
I'd be shocked if the pro wasn't digital only at $599 minimum.
Honestly it seems like a miracle Sony was able to launch the PS5 digital at $399.
2 out of 4 aren't really exceptions lol, that's half
There's no reason for the PS5 to sell a huge amount of consoles after the PS6 is out, especially if it's backwards compatible.
such a miracle price point that they couldn't uphold it. it must have been a REALLY tough decision to make to launch at that price. probably worth it for marketshare but not so much for profits.
They are when both ran into unusual conditions that can't be replicated in any other generation.
Edit: responding to your edit, both the PS1 and PS2 sold tons of units after their replacement launched because there is STILL a market for a cheaper system with a large library of cheap digital games.
By the time the new system is out the PS5 will be much less costly to produce which makes selling it at lower price points like $299 or whatever viable. The ultra casual market that only plays Madden or COD LOVES this, and they'll have years of cross gen PS5 titles supporting the unit. This is why the PS1 sold another 25m and the PS2 sold another 60m after next generation was available.
That audience is NOT all that interested in buying into expensive new systems on day 1 and BC isn't a selling point.
The PS3 didn't go this route because Sony found it impossible to cost reduce down to that level because (among other issues) NVIDIA wasn't cooperating. They stripped out everything else they could to TRY but it wasn't happening and losing even more money on the unit wasn't a viable plan.
The PS4 likely would have stayed on the market as it was selling at a fair clip, but the pandemic meant Sony had to make the decision to stop producing those in order to make PS5s....there simply weren't enough components available.
Neither one of these things is applicable to the PS5 when the PS6 hits.
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This i agree with. Seems obvious it was placed at that point to take the momentum away from the series S.
Once the X/S were no longer significant competitors the price went back to a sustainable point.
OP
OP
Just to be clear i didn't abandon thread but unfortunately just as i posted it i had emergency meeting at work and things to take care so i never got opportunity to add all info that later popped up. And now there is kinda no point to do it when thread is this long. And to be clear i don't consider tweet in the OP that negative if negative at all. Sony had good year, they were close (basically spot on) to their target for sold consoles, their numbers were up YoY (bit decline in PSN users but that is expected they always have best numbers in Q3).
The price is not "sustainable". Do you not read Sony's financials? Hardware losses are their biggest drag right now. Folks are just dreaming up scenarios that do not exist.
I will be blunt, since there is absolutely zero competition, as you stated, with Xbox, Sony has LESS incentive to cut the price. It is not going to happen outside of promotions, which are probably going to be scaled back. The hardware restructuring reporting to the CFO basically is hinting at this. You don't do this unless you need to get costs significantly under control.
Edit: Also add, once again, not even Sony is forecasting scenarios like you believe will happen.
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The point you're missing is that the market isn't stagnant, but the growth didn't go to Sony, it went to Nintendo/PC platforms. There has demonstrably been no measurable growth in hardware numbers for the ps5 compared to the PS4 and no reason to think that is about to change.
In fact, even Sony aren't expecting it to keep maintaining pace with the PS4, as the next year forecast is a million below what the PS4 managed in the comparable financial year.
It might have longer legs, but that is something we can't possibly predict this far out.
First, acting like whatever Xbox loses Sony picks up seems faulty in this day and age. It's been said a lot, but there's so much more competing for people's time and money since last gen.
Second, you have no clue as to how or when the cutoff for PS5 production will happen. I mean, PS4 was cut short, but it was well into its seventh year on the market. The past doesn't seem to be a valuable indicator on a LOT of levels these days in this market. Things are changing so rapidly. I just don't think I'd say what's gonna happen with such certainty these days. Everything is whack.
Ps1 did under those exact conditions(30m of its ltd was after ps2 launch).
It involved pricing to a new market segment, one that consoles seem to no longer target though.
Whole industry is relying on a game from a studio that hasn't had its usual multiple delays yet. It's a bold move.
The Switch 2 is probably one of the bigger obstacles to the PS5 matching PS4's total sales, a definite possibility that it's actively eating much more away at Sony's potential sales than before, especially with the power gap likely to close more. But still, external conditions for the PS4 at this stage of the lifecycle were a lot more favorable than now, and should some of those conditions clear up, I don't think it's impossible for the PS5 to make up ground, just that 2017-2018 were some of PS4's best years in a better environment and things are going to be different for a variety of reasons. Worse for the next year it seems, but not necessarily for the remainder. 2019 and 2020 were especially slow for hardware (software too, 2019 wise) as prices couldn't really be pushed down much further, so that would be the opportune time for PS5 to make up ground if it's going to.
They could increase the pric of thing again and it still would have a reasonable chance of outselling the ps3 lol. I feel like some people here want consoles to die, been that way for over a decade now, I have no idea why but it is what it is.
I don't think Sony should ever come out with hardware that has a $600 price tag ever again
$600 was a LOT for 2006 but doesn't seem that far out of the realm of possibility for 2028 with the way the consumer electronics market has trended since
but the sales for PS5 in the back half of its lifecycle will probably inform a lot of their decision making
Last I'll comment because I do have a job demanding my attention BUT
1.) No, I don't think a significant percentage of the PS4/XBO market went "Nintendo or PC." Very few of the third party games that show up on the PS4/XBO have switch ports to begin with and the multiplayer/online capability of that system is downright awful. The switch is a very good system but it's a very poor replacement for a PlayStation or Xbox. PC is a better replacement but cost and general usability of a gaming PC remains a barrier. There's some crossover, but it's again not a good replacement for the casual market. I think PC is growing organically on its own, but taking significant share from those two probably not.
2.) none of us "know" what will happen, we can only project from data we have. PS4 was indeed "cut short" in its seventh year, but the PS1 and 2 were supported well into their *twelfth and thirteenth* years. I happen to believe the roadmap for a system selling as well as the PS5 is would be similar. If you disagree, I'll see you in 2028.
I know the value of the dollar has changed, but people's perception to seeing a $600 price tag for a Playstation console hasn't. not for me, and probably not for a lot of the casual audience either.
$599 in 2006 would be equivalent to $945 today, which just... god damn, Sony. Remove the compact flash reader or something and get that price down.
There has to be a sizeable gulf between the price of the PS5 and the PRO for it to make sense ($450 to $600).
People being extra sensitive about corporations' earnings results will never not be funny to me.
Tom getting so much shit for posting a bunch of numbers and accused of "creating narratives" is wild.
Reminder that the great Sony with "record breaking" sales and operating profits also laid off nearly 10% of its work in late February. I assume they're not firing their workers for fun, so obviously they are dealing with a current down turn in this industry like everyone else
Tom getting so much shit for posting a bunch of numbers and accused of "creating narratives" is wild.
Reminder that the great Sony with "record breaking" sales and operating profits also laid off nearly 10% of its work in late February. I assume they're not firing their workers for fun, so obviously they are dealing with a current down turn in this industry like everyone else
It's not that I completely disagree. I think I said in another thread it's probably happening...but I'm not certain at all.
But to your first point, countering my first point: I wasn't even talking about the competition in this space with PC and Switch. That is naturally going to take away users from one platform or another. Even new handhelds in the mix like Steam Deck might have people asking themselves "why do I need much else?" I'm talking about mobile and movie/tv streaming services. I'm talking about time itself. If other things take higher priority with incoming generations, they'll see less need for the console. Going by the numbers, PS5 should be a good clip ahead of the PS4 if we are talking taking up slack from lapsing Xbox customers. That isn't happening. Sony is caught up. Demand isn't outpacing supply anymore. People aren't jumping on the next gen bandwagon as hotly or are choosing other ways to spend their time. These divergences seem like they are increasing. Hence Xbox seemingly going third party. Sony putting most things out on PC at various dates. SE saying fuck the one publisher output thing anymore.
Times are changing rapidly. Us nerds on boards like this don't always see the trends close to when the companies themselves do. Layden's talk recently put that into perspective.
This is the same Tom Warren who insinuated that the Helldivers 2 PSN debacle is as bad as the Microsoft layoffs with a "hold my berr" comment?
This is correct, no matter the actual value, perception of it is a big deciding factor on whether people will spend.
It wasn't Helldivers but Tsushima.
View: https://twitter.com/tomwarren/status/1789168431947796667?t=--PGvR_Avl2H4AbJMws4OA&s=19
And he's out there defending his point to the death lol. Warren's attempts are so thinly veiled.
The target it was not 21m but around 21M, and sorry but 20,8 is auround 21m
"Based on the results for this quarter, PS5 unit sales for this fiscal year are expected to be around 21 million units."
Yeah, even with what could be considered good sales, investors don't like targets being missed.
Edit: saw from another post the market seems to responding well enough so maybe scratch that here.
Normally this is the case but Sony stock has been going way up since their report came out.
how about we add this to the first post for more context? hmm OP?
i guess not
That tends to happen when you develop an emotional attachment to a corporation.
I don't mean to get off topic here.. but that comparison is absurd.
Studio closures are permanent and affect real working people.
Sony will likely create a solution to alleviate this long term.
