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Russia has begun a full-scale invasion in Ukraine [READ STAFF POSTS]

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vastag

vastag

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,301
Spilling the conflict into Moldava seems completly stupid, but using the small Russian forces in Transnistria to attack Ukraine is a suicide. No option makes any kind of sense, there is no scenario for the Transnistrian garrison to survive. Maybe they want to declare Transnistria as part of Russia? But they would be completly cut and isolated, worse than Kaliningrad.

The only thing that makes sense is trying to tie some Ukranian forces in the border with Transnistria.
 

Deleted member 26591

Member
Oct 30, 2017
3,295
It would be hilarious if the result of this ended up being Moldovan territorial hegemony, and another state entry to NATO.

Like, has anyone considered this might be a deliberate act to destabilise NATO by getting so many new members? (/s obviously)


Edit: holy crap I forgot epic sax guy was Maldovan. Now on a YouTube meme cycle 😂
 
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CampFreddie

CampFreddie

A King's Landing
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,079
Well, opening up another front with a long and difficult supply line sounds like a great idea, Russia! It's been working great so far!
The most likely outcome would be Moldova reclaiming Transistria, while some stupid Russians get slaughtered on a beach in Western Ukraine, and their remaining landing vessels get sunk by Ukranian (or British, since they'd be coming in close) missiles.
They'd be right next to Romania, so NATO will be able to provide live feeds to Ukranian defences with enough resolution to pick out see what the Russian troops are eating for breakfast (spoiler: it's mashed potatoes and pickled vegetables again).

I think the fate of the Transistrian troops was predicted in the solemn Moldovan war hymn "Run Away". Let me find some footage...
 
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maabus1999

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,325
vastag said:
Spilling the conflict into Moldava seems completly stupid but using the small Russian forces in Transnistria to attack Ukraine is a suicide. No option makes any kind of sense, there is no scenario for the Transnistrian garrison to survive. Maybe they want to declare Transnistria as part of Russia? But they would be completly cut and isolated, worse than Kaliningrad.
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It could be a feint, but honestly not a good one.

It could be real and an attempt to just escalate to de-escalate into a negotiation. Again, not a good one.

It could be a desperate hail Mary to actually take territory due to some arbitrary deadline (i.e., May 9th). Broken record again but it's not a good one.

One thing I don't see Russia doing is committing its troops and letting Ukraine or Moldova seize the ammo dump, so not sure how they commit those forces. Unless they plan to blow it if there is an attempt to seize it.

Edit: Honestly, Moldova needs to declare a SoE (if not in one already from the refugees) and start increasing their reserve forces ASAP to a more active posture. They need to get a force of ~20,000+ ready ASAP for whatever contingency. And ask Romania for arms if need be.

Edit 2:

Now this is a meeting! Ukraine is going to get some serious goods out of this:

 
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Mentalist

Mentalist

Member
Mar 14, 2019
19,099
maabus1999 said:
It could be a feint, but honestly not a good one.

It could be real and an attempt to just escalate to de-escalate into a negotiation. Again, not a good one.

It could be a desperate hail Mary to actually take territory due to some arbitrary deadline (i.e., May 9th). Broken record again but it's not a good one.

One thing I don't see Russia doing is committing its troops and letting Ukraine or Moldova seize the ammo dump, so not sure how they commit those forces. Unless they plan to blow it if there is an attempt to seize it.
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It's literally sitting on Ukrainian border, so if war starts, they need to blow it immediately. And if they do, they'll level half of Transnistria in the process.

I'm trying to think of the most outlandish scenarios here. PMR can invade Moldova (it has the bridge crossing to Bendery, it's a short hop to Chisinau, and Moldovan Armed Forces are nothing to write home about.
But what's next?
Mass mobilization of Moldovans to fight for Russia against Ukraine? Won't work, b/c UAF seizes/destroys the arsenals.

Plus Romania might get unilaterally involved since a huge chunk of Moldovans have Romanian citizenships.

Honestly, Moldova should preemptively invite some Romanian "peacekeepers" to secure the refugee camps, or some similar humanitarian reasons.
 
poklane

poklane

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,264
the Netherlands
I'm by no means some military tactician, but I'd also imagine that it would be quite easy to take at least large parts of Transnistria due to the shape of the region Russia occupies. The region is only a few kilometers wide, taking a single town or road in certain places means cutting the Russian occupied area in half. Like, the M4 highway which connects Tiraspol to the north of Transnistria is seriously 10 meters or so away from the Ukrainian border
 
maabus1999

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,325
Mentalist said:
It's literally sitting on Ukrainian border, so if war starts, they need to blow it immediately. And if they do, they'll level half of Transnistria in the process.

I'm trying to think of the most outlandish scenarios here. PMR can invade Moldova (it has the bridge crossing to Bendery, it's a short hop to Chisinau, and Moldovan Armed Forces are nothing to write home about.
But what's next?
Mass mobilization of Moldovans to fight for Russia against Ukraine? Won't work, b/c UAF seizes/destroys the arsenals.

Plus Romania might get unilaterally involved since a huge chunk of Moldovans have Romanian citizenships.

Honestly, Moldova should preemptively invite some Romanian "peacekeepers" to secure the refugee camps, or some similar humanitarian reasons.
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One more thing to add to all this foolishness is I doubt Russia has a serious air defense umbrella here so these troop would just be MAULED in 24 hours since they are sitting right next to where Ukraine is probably basing all of their air power. And Russian air power isn't coming that far to bail them out...
 
thewienke

thewienke

Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,943
maabus1999 said:
It could be a feint, but honestly not a good one.

It could be real and an attempt to just escalate to de-escalate into a negotiation. Again, not a good one.

It could be a desperate hail Mary to actually take territory due to some arbitrary deadline (i.e., May 9th). Broken record again but it's not a good one.

One thing I don't see Russia doing is committing its troops and letting Ukraine or Moldova seize the ammo dump, so not sure how they commit those forces. Unless they plan to blow it if there is an attempt to seize it.
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Could be a sacrifice for the general Russian public to sell them on a mass mobilization?
 
EagleClaw

EagleClaw

Member
Dec 31, 2018
12,068
EUs FRONTEX is present at the Moldova-Ukraine border.
Of course those aren't military forces, but it surely would be a situation if Russia would invade through a FRONTEX secured border.

 
maabus1999

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,325
Xando said:
Sounds like the german government is shifting in favor of a oil embargo

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Still need to add some pressure to India/China to reduce imports (doubt they'll stop).

Also, if for some stupid reason Russia goes hot in Moldova, I just can't see the EU not pulling out everything left because it becomes a little more clear that Russia truly doesn't care only about Ukraine...
 
EagleClaw

EagleClaw

Member
Dec 31, 2018
12,068
Xando said:
Sounds like the german government is shifting in favor of a oil embargo

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Not really a shift.
It was always said that no new contracts would be signed, and at the latest at the end of the year russian oil wouldn't be needed anymore.
I'm not sure if they will go for sanctions even when it is "only" 12%.
Also you would need the whole EU for sanction, and the truth is many countries need currently russian oil.
 
Xando

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
29,883
EagleClaw said:
Not really a shift.
It was always said that no new contracts would be signed, and at the latest at the end of the year russian oil wouldn't be needed anymore.
I'm not sure if they will go for sanctions even when it is "only" 12%.
Also you would need the whole EU for sanction, and the truth is many countries need currently russian oil.
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There's plenty of reporting that germany, hungary and austria were the last holdouts for a oil embargo and going from end of the year to oil independence in a matter of days is certainly a shift.
 
maabus1999

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,325
Eggiem said:
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I mean this gives Saudi Arabia and friends a huge opportunity here not just for income but also political and economic influence over Europe if they are willing to do so. Sucks that this will give them cover to do their own military aspirations but to most Europeans I'm sure that would be seen as the lesser of evils.
 
sangreal

sangreal

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,890
Xando said:
There's plenty of reporting that germany, hungary and austria were the last holdouts for a oil embargo and going from end of the year to oil independence in a matter of days is certainly a shift.
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It certainly seems like a notable shift, but I think Germanys bigger issue was leaving Russian gas, not oil
 

Deleted member 2752

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
15,110
EagleClaw said:
EUs FRONTEX is present at the Moldova-Ukraine border.
Of course those aren't military forces, but it surely would be a situation if Russia would invade through a FRONTEX secured border.

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Would they also be stationed in Transnistria? Who's in control of those border checkpoints? Doesn't look like much, but having official EU border forces stationed there is definitely indicative of what's to come.
 
EagleClaw

EagleClaw

Member
Dec 31, 2018
12,068
Xando said:
There's plenty of reporting that germany, hungary and austria were the last holdouts for a oil embargo and going from end of the year to oil independence in a matter of days is certainly a shift.
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There were also reporting from the Netherlands.
There was also France and other states, but it seems they declared the possibility on a oil ban a couple of weeks and days ago.

EDIT:
Corrected the link

EDIT:
Maybe i'm wrong, most is "just" about gas...
 
EagleClaw

EagleClaw

Member
Dec 31, 2018
12,068
III-V said:
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I'm sure Hollywood is listening and takes notes of all those claims...

mnz said:
Would they also be stationed in Transnistria? Who's in control of those border checkpoints? Doesn't look like much, but having official EU border forces stationed there is definitely indicative of what's to come.
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Maybe they aren't stationed in "Transnistria".
But if Russia goes for "Transnistria" i'm sure he will invaded the Moldovan-Ukrainian border.
There is no "Transnistria" near the Black sea.
 
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Nerun

Nerun

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,369
Announcement of the Minister of Economy (Germany)
Independent of Russian oil in a few days?

The share of Russian oil is now only around twelve percent. And this share is accounted for solely by deliveries for the PCK refinery in Schwedt an der Oder. Here, one is looking for an alternative, Habeck said. "This alternative is the task of the next few days." He said he assumes that it is indeed only a matter of days.In the run-up to the meeting in Warsaw, it was said that the Polish port of Gdansk could play an important role in ensuring supplies to Schwedt by ship. Schwedt is connected to a pipeline from Russia and is controlled by the Russian company Rosneft.

Source: Tagesschau
 
WhySoDevious

WhySoDevious

Member
Oct 31, 2017
8,710
Unsure if this has already been posted (and maybe it merits its own thread):

www.thedailybeast.com

Russian Spies Hilariously Screw Up Putin’s ‘Assassination Plot’ Claim

An alleged Russian hoax gone embarrassingly wrong indicates that Putin’s agents have trouble following even the most basic instructions.
www.thedailybeast.com

Russia's notorious FSB counterintelligence agency released a video of the arrests, as well as so-called "behind-the-scenes" footage of agents searching and seizing property allegedly found at the suspects' apartment, which was posted in its entirety by state media outlet RIA Novosti on Telegram. The footage showed an array of items laid out in the apartment, including a photograph of Adolf Hitler, six pristine-looking Ukrainian passports, a blonde wig, and brand new T-shirts emblazoned with swastikas that appeared to bear fresh creases from recent shipping.
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But the seemingly brand new items weren't the only curious elements depicted in the FSB video footage. In the original video, three copies of a Sims video game were shown laid out on the bed, as well as a book containing a menacing inscription, stating in part: "Kill to live and live to kill," signed with the name of "Signature unclear."

Social media users were quick to point that the SIMS game and "Signature unclear" could be signs that the arrest was part of an FSB hoax gone wrong, pointing out the directives for setting up the scene of the crime might have included planting three SIM cards and signing the book with an indiscernible signature—and that these instructions might have been misunderstood or taken too literally by the agents.
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EagleClaw

EagleClaw

Member
Dec 31, 2018
12,068
How can those reporters and "news presenters" stand there with a straight face ?
Maybe it isn't live and took some takes...
 
BringBackSonics

BringBackSonics

Member
Oct 27, 2017
46,503
Seattle
Here are the countries/organizations that were at the meeting:

The meeting in Germany included representatives from Albania, Australia, Belgium, Britain, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Italy, Kenya, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, the Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Qatar, Romania, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain and Turkey, as well as NATO and the European Union. Officials from Germany, the United States and Ukraine sat at the head of the table.
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Australia, Kenya, Israel and Qatar being the non Europe countries. Honestly surprised that ROK was not at the table.
 
KastuśKalinoŭski

KastuśKalinoŭski

Member
Nov 23, 2019
9,265
RRT4 ▶︎▶︎▶︎

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com
r6RlpqU.png

Russia's biggest state oil producer Rosneft PJSC failed to award a tender to sell millions of barrels of its flagship Urals crude as European buyers continued to stay away following the invasion of Ukraine, five traders with knowledge of the tender said.

Rosneft was seeking to sell as much as 5.1 million tons, or 37 million barrels of Urals for loading from three western ports in May and June, but no bids were placed from European companies, the traders said. Some Asian refiners submitted bids, but Rosneft deemed them too low, the traders said. Some Asian refiners complained that some requirements in Rosneft tender were too stringent, such as 100% pre-payment.
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The failure highlights an increasing difficulty for Russian producers in finding replacement buyers after European refiners scaled back their purchases. Although more than half of Urals seaborne exports are still destined to Europe, the ratio has dropped sharply from pre-war levels of as much as 90%.
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Pomerlaw

Pomerlaw

Erarboreal
Member
Feb 25, 2018
9,222
Has anyone taken the latest nuclear war threat from Lavrov seriously? Not including the media
 
Binabik15

Binabik15

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,815
Energoatom says that Russian cruise missiles skimmed over the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant before they hit the city.

Source: Tagesschau.de live tick

Happy 36th Chernobyl anniversary, everyone!
 
BringBackSonics

BringBackSonics

Member
Oct 27, 2017
46,503
Seattle
I appreciate that Germany is hosting the meeting and is at the head of the table with the US and Ukraine, With the recent news about the tanks and the oil, seems like Germany is taking more of a role going forward.
 
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