Russia has begun a full-scale invasion in Ukraine [READ STAFF POSTS]

KingSnake · Apr 26, 2022

TheGummyBear said:
They would still need to finish capturing the land bridge across the coast to manage that, and Odesa is standing in the way of that happening. Which has spent time fortifying, and has pretty direct supply routes from Kyiv and Lviv.

Given how much trouble Russia are having holding Mariupol and making gains in Donbas, I don't think they would be able to manage that.

That having been said, Denis Pushilin has already leaped on this as an example of why Russia has to succeed in the war. One has to wonder, along with Moscow increasing how shrill its rhetoric is, if they are trying to build public support for general mobilisation.

I'm talking about the Russian army in Tiraspol. Russia has been illogical enough in all this to start some shit there without a proper backup (although they would probably be able to send missiles to Moldova too) just because they can. Even if it doesn't make strategical sense.

Binabik15 · Apr 26, 2022

Harzzach said:
The dutch should ideally deliver their Gepard variant, the Cheeta. Those have an upgraded, advanced radar system, which will be more likely to detect and then destroy drones. The Gepard is 1970s technology, small drones were nothing the designers then thought of.

I only hope that those older Gepards are of any meaningful use to Ukraine. And not just some clever deal by the manufacturer to get rid of stuff nobody wants anymore.

Yet another article read: the company states that "the current version can combat modern jets, rockets, missiles and drones". They can theoretically be equipped with 2 AA rockets (Stingers).

I can't find the specific type of Gepard they want to sell, though.

In a worst case scenario the Gepard is still a mobile medium-ish tank with 35mm autocannons that can shoot at helos and ground targets like IFVs even if they suck against MiGs and UAVs.

Vector · Apr 26, 2022

Starting shit in Moldova would draw the ire of Romania and the romanian-speaking majority living in Moldova.

It would be a pretty worrying escalation.

Bangdorf · Apr 26, 2022

Binabik15 said:
Yet another article read: the company states that "the current version can combat modern jets, rockets, missiles and drones". They can theoretically be equipped with 2 AA rockets (Stingers).

I can't find the specific type of Gepard they want to sell, though.

In a worst case scenario the Gepard is still a mobile medium-ish tank with 35mm autocannons that can shoot at helos and ground targets like IFVs even if they suck against MiGs and UAVs.

Germany could only send the modern A2 variant because any older existing Gepard would take months to be combat ready, maybe even longer because key parts straight up doesn't exist anymore.

Harzzach · Apr 26, 2022

TheGummyBear said:
That having been said, Denis Pushilin has already leaped on this as an example of why Russia has to succeed in the war. One has to wonder, along with Moscow increasing how shrill its rhetoric is, if they are trying to build public support for general mobilisation.

Full mobilization is tricky. The special operation is popular in the urban areas, because its a TV special operation. And because no "white" russians are dying, mostly people from other ethnicities and mercenaries. There are reports that some people in the Kremlin realized they had amped up propaganda way too much, way too early. How do you generate support for a full blown war, when your propaganda for this "special operation" is already at max setting?

Binabik15 said:
Yet another article read: the company states that "the current version can combat modern jets, rockets, missiles and drones". They can theoretically be equipped with 2 AA rockets (Stingers).

I can't find the specific type of Gepard they want to sell, though.

In a worst case scenario the Gepard is still a mobile medium-ish tank with 35mm autocannons that can shoot at helos and ground targets like IFVs even if they suck against MiGs and UAVs.

Ok, thnx.

daninthemix · Apr 26, 2022

Russia has the capability to escalate. The question is which will win out - their fear or their pride? I hope it's the former.

Memento Mori · Apr 26, 2022

Vector said:
Ah yes, the Ukrainian nazi assassin's starter kit - swastika flag and nazi paraphernalia and copies of various The Sims 3 expansion packs.

To be fair, luring your target into a swimming pool and removing the ladders is an effective assassination method.

Dr. Mario · Apr 26, 2022

I think given the state of their equipment and training, Lavrov wasn't posturing about waging a third world war, but a third world war.

Dubbedinenglish · Apr 26, 2022

daninthemix said:
Russia has the capability to escalate. The question is which will win out - their fear or their pride? I hope it's the former.

Honestly I don't think they do. They committed the majority of the modern forces to Ukraine and were routed on two of their fronts while taking large casualties and equipment losses. They've suffered losses in command and purging at home. Sanctions have crippled their ability to resupply advanced munitions and platforms and they are withdrawing troops and equipment from other deployments to fill losses.. What would escalation look like? Conscription and mobilization would take months and even there is nowhere near enough modern equipment left to supply them. I really believe that we are looking at the full capacity of the Russian military in Ukraine.

jchap · Apr 26, 2022

Memento Mori said:
To be fair, luring your target into a swimming pool and removing the ladders is an effective assassination method.

Unless they are pregnant then it makes them immortal

EagleClaw · Apr 26, 2022

Those Gepard AA systems are pretty modern.
They are send by KMW, and are the 1A2 version from 2000.

Product page KMW

Of course it also helps that they use the Leopard base, if Ukraine also gets Leopard tanks there are big synergies.

KingSnake · Apr 26, 2022

Bangdorf · Apr 26, 2022

EagleClaw said:
Those Gepard AA systems are pretty modern.
They are send by KMW, and are the 1A2 version from 2000.

Product page KMW

Of course it also helps that they use the Leopard base, if Ukraine also gets Leopard tanks there are big synergies.

Of course it's the most complex land system you could send there. The Gepard operators had the longest training phase in the German or Dutch Armies.

I hope the Ukrainian operators can get the necessary level of training otherwise the Gepards going to end as expensive direct fire support vehicles.

cartoon_soldier · Apr 26, 2022

KingSnake said:

Someone explain this to me please

KingSnake · Apr 26, 2022

Could Russia try a landing in that shore area between Romania and that bridge (Dniester Liman) and drive towards Transnistria? I wonder how it's the Ukrainian defence there, especially around Zatoka. Mentalist do you know anything about it?

EagleClaw · Apr 26, 2022

Bangdorf said:
Of course it's the most complex land system you could send there. The Gepard operators had the longest training phase in the German or Dutch Armies.

I hope the Ukrainian operators can get the necessary level of training otherwise the Gepards going to end as expensive direct fire support vehicles.

Surely complicated.
It is an AA with radar and laser range finder.

Atleast driving that thing should be almost the same as a Leopard.

TheGummyBear · Apr 26, 2022

cartoon_soldier said:
Someone explain this to me please

It would appear that Russia is trying to set the ground tp surround Odesa.

eonden · Apr 26, 2022

KingSnake said:
Could Russia try a landing in that shore area between Romania and that bridge (Dniester Liman) and drive towards Transnistria? I wonder how it's the Ukrainian defence there, especially around Zatoka. Mentalist do you know anything about it?

There is little chance of a surprise naval landing near the border of Romania (a NATO country who has flying radars up all the time to support Ukraine right now). So even if it is not as defended as Odesa, it would still be unsafe to do anything.
I would guess they want to make moving equipment to the south of Ukraine harder (so no Romania -> Odessa -> Kherson), and maaaaybe start planning on taking on Odessa in the future.

thewienke · Apr 26, 2022

KingSnake said:

Looks like there's the E87 highway to the north that goes through like three miles of Moldova but fortunately that road isn't in "Transnistria". Not too far off though.

It certainly complicates things a bit by adding an additional national layer.

I'm not sure how much US equipment is being shipped into the Black Sea and into Romanian ports. If the answer is "a lot" then I imagine the logic here is to force everything through much longer land routes.

Netherscourge · Apr 26, 2022

Dubbedinenglish said:
Honestly I don't think they do. They committed the majority of the modern forces to Ukraine and were routed on two of their fronts while taking large casualties and equipment losses. They've suffered losses in command and purging at home. Sanctions have crippled their ability to resupply advanced munitions and platforms and they are withdrawing troops and equipment from other deployments to fill losses.. What would escalation look like? Conscription and mobilization would take months and even there is nowhere near enough modern equipment left to supply them. I really believe that we are looking at the full capacity of the Russian military in Ukraine.

Russia can't really do anything but destroy buildings and kill civilians at this point. Unfortunately, they can keep doing that until they run out of shells, missiles and bombs.

I don't think occupation is the plan anymore since Ukraine can attack any positions they try to claim. There's nothing Russia can do but commit spiteful acts of terrorism, which they are good at.

vastag · Apr 26, 2022

KingSnake said:
I'm talking about the Russian army in Tiraspol. Russia has been illogical enough in all this to start some shit there without a proper backup (although they would probably be able to send missiles to Moldova too) just because they can. Even if it doesn't make strategical sense.

I can't see Romania staying out if they decide to push with their forces in Transnistria into Moldova.

KingSnake · Apr 26, 2022

eonden said:
There is little chance of a surprise naval landing near the border of Romania (a NATO country who has flying radars up all the time to support Ukraine right now). So even if it is not as defended as Odesa, it would still be unsafe to do anything.
I would guess they want to make moving equipment to the south of Ukraine harder (so no Romania -> Odessa -> Kherson), and maaaaybe start planning on taking on Odessa in the future.

There's still the road that goes a bit through Moldova and that seems to be the better road anyway, but I hope it's just this.

KingSnake · Apr 26, 2022

vastag said:
I can't see Romania staying out if they decide to push with their forces in Transnistria into Moldova.

Well, yeah, there will be some public push for that, but it won't be validated by NATO and it would put Romania in a very tight position. I'm originally from Romania, that's why I'm a bit in alert right now. Hope it's just some stupid sabre rattle from Russia though.

Everyday Math · Apr 26, 2022

Mentalist · Apr 26, 2022

Mobilizing the entire 5-7K troops in Transnistria (1.7K Russian Regulars, plus whatever makes up the "Army", "Security Force" and "Militia" of Transnistria itself) to try to cross into Ukraine (with the main bridge crossing next to Odessa already destroyed a while ago) definitely would be an odd move. Considering there's no real heavy weapons or airforce there, and the entirety of Transnistria is within range of Ukrainian artillery.

If anything, this makes me feel the defense of Kherson is actually starting to wobble, which is why they desperately want a frontline brigade pulled back to Odessa to watch the Transnistrian border.

Not sure about a landing in Bessarabia. Bilhorod would certainly have a garrison, and I'm pretty sure a landing would be impossible without some coastal defenses getting hits on the landing ships.

The Dnister Lyman had the only direct railway line to Odessa, iirc, so disrupting it would be in line with Ruscist general strikes on infrastructure. Romania is probably a decent-sized hub for whatever equipment is coming up from the Balkans, Cyprus and Africa (?)

KingSnake · Apr 26, 2022

Mentalist said:
The Dnister Lyman had the only direct railway line to Odessa, iirc, so disrupting it would be in line with Ruscist general strikes on infrastructure. Romania is probably a decent-sized hub for whatever equipment is coming up from the Balkans, Cyprus and Africa (?)

This makes sense. Probably a hit on the railway.

Culex · Apr 26, 2022

cartoon_soldier said:
Someone explain this to me please

Remove only western exit from Odessa while the same time attempting to take over Moldova and encircling Odessa.

Nerun · Apr 26, 2022

The Gepard situation is kinda weird, maybe to further "promote" the "our systems are (too) complicated" position. I've read a bit more about the system and it seems that the system is one of the most complicated ones overall. The training was taking many months in Germany, back in the day, other territories got help to make proper use of the system after problems with the training. Also note that the system is no longer in use, neither in Germany nor Netherlands, the Bundeswehr basically don't have any "active" trainers for the system therefore. A sidenote was also mentioned, that the ammo is made by Oerlikon in Switzerland and they already said "no" to an export of ammo for the Marder IFV. Not sure about the move, can only say what I read so far from former soldiers of the system and in the media like Spiegel.

At least they also seem to want to train soldiers on the PzH 2000 (which is provided by the Netherlands instead of Germany), so it's at least a bit of help again.

KingSnake · Apr 26, 2022

Phew, Russia clarified it. /s

Deleted member 2752 · Apr 26, 2022

Nerun said:
The Gepard situation is kinda weird, maybe to further "promote" the "our systems are (too) complicated" position. I've read a bit more about the system and it seems that the system is one of the most complicated ones overall. The training was taking many months in Germany, back in the day, other territories got help to make proper use of the system after problems with the training. Also note that the system is no longer in use, neither in Germany nor Netherlands, the Bundeswehr basically don't have any "active" trainers for the system therefore. A sidenote was also mentioned, that the ammo is made by Oerlikon in Switzerland and they already said "no" to an export of ammo for the Marder IFV. Not sure about the move, can only say what I read so far from former soldiers of the system and in the media like Spiegel.

At least they also seem to want to train soldiers on the PzH 2000 (which is provided by the Netherlands instead of Germany), so it's at least a bit of help again.

One explanation might be that this was the first offer I've heard of from German arms manufacturers. This news, that KMW can deliver 50 of them, is from one day after Russia's invasion: https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/plus...onzern-KMW-bietet-Panzer-fuer-Ukraine-an.html

They might've been working on it for two months.

sangreal · Apr 26, 2022

I think they are likely trying to cut off western supplies being moved from Romania to Odesa, not preparing for an assault. After the strike against Odesa the other day, they claimed it was against a facility storing western weapons

Klyka · Apr 26, 2022

Russia isn't actually trying to imply they got enough military strength to open up another theatre of war, are they?

Mentalist · Apr 26, 2022

Nerun said:
The Gepard situation is kinda weird, maybe to further "promote" the "our systems are (too) complicated" position. I've read a bit more about the system and it seems that the system is one of the most complicated ones overall. The training was taking many months in Germany, back in the day, other territories got help to make proper use of the system after problems with the training. Also note that the system is no longer in use, neither in Germany nor Netherlands, the Bundeswehr basically don't have any "active" trainers for the system therefore. A sidenote was also mentioned, that the ammo is made by Oerlikon in Switzerland and they already said "no" to an export of ammo for the Marder IFV. Not sure about the move, can only say what I read so far from former soldiers of the system and in the media like Spiegel.

At least they also seem to want to train soldiers on the PzH 2000 (which is provided by the Netherlands instead of Germany), so it's at least a bit of help again.

Considering UAF is unlikely to get Patriots until the war ends, and there are problems with getting other countries to sell their S-300s, at least it's addressing the gaps in anti-air coverage. There's enough artillery and MBTs flowing in at the moment.

Culex · Apr 26, 2022

Klyka said:
Russia isn't actually trying to imply they got enough military strength to open up another theatre of war, are they?

Imagine a scenario where Kazakhstan joins with Ukraine. I know it would never happen, but that would be hilarious.

Mentalist · Apr 26, 2022

Klyka said:
Russia isn't actually trying to imply they got enough military strength to open up another theatre of war, are they?

The idea appears to be to mobilise Transnistrians themselves to do it.

Seeing the lines of people fleeing into Moldova from Transnistria, I'd say that plan is likely not going too well.

Deleted member 26591 · Apr 26, 2022

Trigger the UN security council if there's an internal conflict requiring the defence of civilians.

OH! You don't want that Russia?!

Well that's very odd.

Fucking idiots. Do they think anyone actually believes this shit or is it for their own media?

Mentalist · Apr 26, 2022

Culex said:
Imagine a scenario where Kazakhstan joins with Ukraine. I know it would never happen, but that would be hilarious.

Lol, all they need is to occupy Orsk and Orenburg, to establish a border with Bashkorostan. Then Bashkirs, Tatars annd Udmurts can declare independence and basically split Russia in half, :)

I'm sure Erdogan would extend his protection to his fellow Turkic peoples, :p

MrKlaw · Apr 26, 2022

thewienke said:
Looks like there's the E87 highway to the north that goes through like three miles of Moldova but fortunately that road isn't in "Transnistria". Not too far off though.

It certainly complicates things a bit by adding an additional national layer.

I'm not sure how much US equipment is being shipped into the Black Sea and into Romanian ports. If the answer is "a lot" then I imagine the logic here is to force everything through much longer land routes.

Multiple countries are supplying arms to Ukraine. Why wouldn't they also open land corridors or turn a blind eye to limited travel through another country back into Ukraine?

EricTheGamerman · Apr 26, 2022

Seems increasingly like Russia is going to double down on opening even more fronts with their recent desperate pushes to Kryvyi Rih and now everything happening with regards to Moldova. I guess it's an attempt to just constantly surround Ukraine and try to achieve all of the laughable "Novorossia" pandering because for whatever dumbfuck reason Putin got this stuck in his head as THE thing he needs to do. Which means we're probably going to see even more destruction over Southern Ukraine and possibly see Moldova fully roped into as well considering they're already positioning to say "We HAVE to intervene in Transnistria... even though Russian troops have occupied and controlled it for 30 years...".

Hopefully this works to Ukraine's advantage, especially since I don't think Russia really has the ability to arm a force in the West while fighting a massive campaign in the East, but I hope it doesn't overwhelm Ukraine's own relatively stretched thin forces.

Rosur · Apr 26, 2022

KingSnake said:
Phew, Russia clarified it. /s

Is this a plan to try change the fact Russia is losing in Ukraine so need a win in Moldova so army doesn't look too bad?

EagleClaw · Apr 26, 2022

Nerun said:
The Gepard situation is kinda weird, maybe to further "promote" the "our systems are (too) complicated" position. I've read a bit more about the system and it seems that the system is one of the most complicated ones overall. The training was taking many months in Germany, back in the day, other territories got help to make proper use of the system after problems with the training. Also note that the system is no longer in use, neither in Germany nor Netherlands, the Bundeswehr basically don't have any "active" trainers for the system therefore. A sidenote was also mentioned, that the ammo is made by Oerlikon in Switzerland and they already said "no" to an export of ammo for the Marder IFV. Not sure about the move, can only say what I read so far from former soldiers of the system and in the media like Spiegel.

At least they also seem to want to train soldiers on the PzH 2000 (which is provided by the Netherlands instead of Germany), so it's at least a bit of help again.

Romania is using the Gepard.
Maybe training happens in Romania.
Also there might be some on site training done by KMW.

I wouldn't take those Scholz statements from "yesterday" as granted.
On thursday the opposition will build pressure on the coalition, this pressure is so strong that the coalition announced it will present a resolution on heavy weapons on their own.
A lot of people seem to have expected Germany to lead the support for Ukraine, after that "time change" statement in the parliament.
It was too much expectation, atleast with Scholz. Germany might follow now others.
Beside that "time change" statement, that was actually just about rearming the army, there was no sign that Germany would lead the military support of Ukraine.

The PzH 2000 is also a complex system that needs training.
Delivery from Netherlands to Ukraine had to be green lit by Germany and training might happen in Germany.

Mentalist · Apr 26, 2022

EricTheGamerman said:
Seems increasingly like Russia is going to double down on opening even more fronts with their recent desperate pushes to Kryvyi Rih and now everything happening with regards to Moldova. I guess it's an attempt to just constantly surround Ukraine and try to achieve all of the laughable "Novorossia" pandering because for whatever dumbfuck reason Putin got this stuck in his head as THE thing he needs to do. Which means we're probably going to see even more destruction over Southern Ukraine and possibly see Moldova fully roped into as well considering they're already positioning to say "We HAVE to intervene in Transnistria... even though Russian troops have occupied and controlled it for 30 years...".

Hopefully this works to Ukraine's advantage, especially since I don't think Russia really has the ability to arm a force in the West while fighting a massive campaign in the East, but I hope it doesn't overwhelm Ukraine's own relatively stretched thin forces.

Vynnytsya and L'viv have their own garrisons. Plus I'm sure there's at least several tank and mech brigades undergoing equipping and training at Yavoriv & other training grounds in the West.

If Transnistrians try crossing into Odessa Oblast, a force from Vynnytsya will enter PMR from the North to claim the ammo storage for the 14th Soviet Army- which was the reason Transnistria came to be in 1992 in the first place.

Getting Moldova involved in the war would probably speed up Romania's involvement and increase support coming through Romania and Moldova.

RolandGunner · Apr 26, 2022

Transnistria popping off isn't something I expected today. Supplying the troops there will be nearly impossible so this looks to me like Russia is sacrificing these poor chumps to draw pressure off their other fronts like a pawn in chess.

Koukalaka · Apr 26, 2022

Rosur said:
Is this a plan to try change the fact Russia is losing in Ukraine so need a win in Moldova so army doesn't look too bad?

My understanding is there is maybe 1500 Russian troops there at best and they're not exactly geared up for a war, even including whatever cosplay Soviet army Transnistria can muster.

Sean C. · Apr 26, 2022

This seems like it would just lead to the dissolution of Transnistria.

DinkyDev · Apr 26, 2022

Rosur said:
Is this a plan to try change the fact Russia is losing in Ukraine so need a win in Moldova so army doesn't look too bad?

There was the story a week or two ago about a Russian commander who talked about plans to take the entire south of Ukraine so that they had a direct route to Transnistria. It's mentioned in this article again today.

Moldova holds security meeting as tensions rise over breakaway region

Senior Russian diplomat says Moscow is ‘concerned’ over string of explosions in Transnistria

www.theguardian.com

maabus1999 · Apr 26, 2022

Yeah, this is getting interesting as one of Russia's main combat footage propagandists may be in Transnistria:

poklane · Apr 26, 2022

Sean C. said:
This seems like it would just lead to the dissolution of Transnistria.

Yeah, IF the war spreads to Transnistria the best case scenario would be Ukraine and Moldova jointly invading the region, it being reintigrated into Moldova and then Moldova quickly joining NATO alongside Finland and Sweden, although that would be a bit trickier togen the state of Moldova's army.

Rosur · Apr 26, 2022

DinkyDev said:
There was the story a week or two ago about a Russian commander who talked about plans to take the entire south of Ukraine so that they had a direct route to Transnistria. It's mentioned in this article again today.

Moldova holds security meeting as tensions rise over breakaway region

Senior Russian diplomat says Moscow is ‘concerned’ over string of explosions in Transnistria

www.theguardian.com

Did see that but kinda feels a bit early trying stuff with Modldova when they could still lose the territory in Ukraine

Mivey · Apr 26, 2022

Rosur said:
Did see that but kinda feels a bit early trying stuff with Modldova when you could still lose the territory in Ukraine

I'd guess it's a bunch of generals who need to appease Putin, by making it look like they can somehow retake all of south and east Ukraine, and Moldova before their victory day celebration in May.
There doesn't seem to be much strategic thought put into all this.

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