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Mexico will get hit hard, i feel it, hopefully my grandpas will be safe, they live far from the cities, i hope thats enough.
Just thought I'd link it since you and some other folks were talking about it! Probably shouldn't have quoted you specifically but you were the last to post about it at that moment.
Honestly, I expect both of these are going to happen eventually.
Shutting the border and mandatory COVID-19 isolation? Trudeau says nothing's 'off the table'
In an exclusive interview with CTV's Question Period, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the federal government is 'not taking anything off the table' when it comes to combating the COVID-19 pandemic, including shutting down the border, and says the reason he hasn't been tested is because he...www.ctvnews.ca
I'm using the exact stats on worldometers:
Coronavirus Death Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer
Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), and Crude Mortality Rate (CMR) latest estimates for the COVID-19 disease from the SARS-CoV-2 virus originating from Wuhan, Chinawww.worldometers.info
Except, you're touting 43% death rate in italy, ignoring what you posted in the same link:
As i said, you're comparing thing with time delay, which YOU CAN'T DO in an exponential progress.
But please continue spouting misinformation and not even reading the link you post.
They need to close the border to the States if they're gonna dick around with testing.
from a quick read that will get you a case fatality rate, which is somewhat accurate, but it won't give you an overall mortality rate.I'm using the exact stats on worldometers:
Coronavirus Death Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer
Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), and Crude Mortality Rate (CMR) latest estimates for the COVID-19 disease from the SARS-CoV-2 virus originating from Wuhan, China
That would be the correct way to do it if you want to give a number of what percent of people who test positive at this time will die. but it's a horrid number for an overall mortality rate given how many people we aren't testing.
It's not that though, it's the attitude. That won't change quickly, if at all. You still have people downplaying it even now.
That number also comes with a lot of considerations in the text after it. It is not accurate, it is known to not be accurate, it does not pretend to be accurate.
Do not state mortality rates as a fact without clarification without a very good understanding of the subject. There are a lot of factors involved and inaccurate numbers can cause an enormous amount of fear.
Not even close.I'm using the exact stats on worldometers:
Coronavirus Death Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer
Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), and Crude Mortality Rate (CMR) latest estimates for the COVID-19 disease from the SARS-CoV-2 virus originating from Wuhan, China
You're abusing the numbers in a way that seems intended to cause panic.
I've lost count how many times I've read 'it's starting to feel real' or something similar said in these threads. So i can easily imagine the majority of the country still not treating this crisis seriously.
So does that apply to everyone using the flawed formula of deaths / total cases or just me who uses the formula described with countless scientific citations?
It doesn't help that one of the people downplaying it is the goddamn President.
Mortality rates are going to be skewed due to the way almost every country is doing testing. People with mild symptoms who don't present themselves at the hospital are not going to be tested and they're not going to be factored into the overall numbers. Only the worst cases are going to present at hospitals and start being tracked formally by statistics such as these.
I found a pretty good site I've been using this past week. It tracks in graph form the rise of cases/deaths, says the current fatality rate of the province/state of the country, and lists the new cases as they come in. It's only for Canada and the US.
Worst part is that not even the first time that has happened.
So I'm already expecting the same thing to happen next week, and the one after that.
absolutely would apply to everyone. no one should be saying hard mortality rates as the overall death rates right now.
There just aren't simply enough data points to accurately have one at this time.
99 confirmed cases in Georgia now
Source
- 20 cases in Fulton County
- 19 cases in Cobb County
- 10 cases in DeKalb County
- 9 cases in Bartow County
- 6 cases in Cherokee County
- 6 cases in Dougherty County
- 5 cases in Fayette County
- 4 cases in Floyd County
- 2 cases in Coweta County
- 2 cases in Gordon County
- 4 cases in Gwinnett County
- 2 case in Lee County
- 1 case in Henry County
- 2 cases in Loundes County
- 1 case in Polk County
- 1 case in Charlton County
- 1 case in Newton County
- 2 cases in Clarke County
Source
Honestly, I hope work just shutters for a few weeks. I can't work from home and I depend on mass transit. This sucks.
Yes, I hope they close it to personal travel soon. Just let shipments through.
Yes. I think nobody should state mortality rates unless it comes from a reputable source.
So when this started in China nobody of my friends took it all that seriously and kept making memes and jokes about it and now they're all singing a different tune. This is something new for all of us.
People here go nuts for toilet paper, canned foods nowhere to be found and so on. Why don't we fucking chill? They are also closing schools, clubs, bars, restaurants, coffeeshops, fitness centers until April 6th. Which I can absolutely understand. I just hope regular stores will stay open because if not....yeah, I don't want to think of that.
That last part is probably a bit extreme, but it sure is a damn weird situation.
People here go nuts for toilet paper, canned foods nowhere to be found and so on. Why don't we fucking chill? They are also closing schools, clubs, bars, restaurants, coffeeshops, fitness centers until April 6th. Which I can absolutely understand. I just hope regular stores will stay open because if not....yeah, I don't want to think of that.
That last part is probably a bit extreme, but it sure is a damn weird situation.
There is no way to know even remotely what the actual mortality rate is, because generally only people with more severe symptoms are getting tested. We can know the mortality rate among confirmed cases, but the actual number of cases is guaranteed to be MUCH higher, and most of those will be people who never get any serious symptoms. Most people who get the virus will never know for sure whether or not they had it. And it follows that the actual mortality rate is much lower than is being reported. That's about the only thing we CAN safely assume.
Not trying to downplay things, but I also don't think we should be panicking more than necessary. It's a very rational assumption that the reported 3-4% mortality rate is way too high.
Not trying to downplay things, but I also don't think we should be panicking more than necessary. It's a very rational assumption that the reported 3-4% mortality rate is way too high.
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The most extreme lockdown measures I've seen in the West keep grocery stores and pharmacies open.
So tomorrow Im going to work from home for the first time in my life (been in the professional world for over a decade now). A good buddy of mine who has always worked from home gave me some sound advice on how to stay focused on work. Always wear pants. If you try to work in your underwear, its just going to put you in that lazy Reddit/Pornhub sort of mood and you wont be doing any meaningful work.
It's been said before but we can use SK's numbers as a baseline for best-case outcomes. They've been vigilant about testing and prevention.
No one should be trying to outsmart the World Health Organization on this. Trust the numbers they're providing. Don't think you're better equipped than the experts to come up with estimates.
No one should be trying to outsmart the World Health Organization on this. Trust the numbers they're providing. Don't think you're better equipped than the experts to come up with estimates.
I'm honestly a bit jealous of SK, but also very proud that someone on our planet seems to have their shit together.
grocery stores and pharmacies won't close anywhere. Their supplies could become more limited, but we won't run out of food either.
Add a couple 0's and it might be closer to how many Americans actually have it/had it
Then it's just absolutely nuts how supermarkets have been without lots of canned foods, toilet paper, milk, bread for at least two or three days now. Do these people think WWIII is happening or something? My oh my.
Ohio, days ago, suspected 1% of its population was infected. That's over 100,000 people—for one state.
Crazy how consistent this number is from Asia to the west.
Hearing from some county employees that Sonoma County (California) is going to announce its first case of confirmed community spread in about an hour. Dunno how many cases but it looks like increased testing is paying dividends on giving us here a clearer picture.
In New Orleans, and outside of the frenzy at grocery stores, not enough people taking this seriously. If I have to hear one more person say "it's literally the flu" im gonna lose it. Buku festival was gonna happen next weekend, and as of three days ago the planners were still promoting it to happen then, so irresponsible. Seeing friends on Instagram make jokes about social distancing while at bars. Really disappointed in them
Yeah mine are sourced since it's the worldometers site which uses that formula and their explanation for using it is all explained with reputable citations.
But I'll refrain from mentioning a rate per country since theirs is only listed globally.
They backtracked
Norwegian university tells students in US to return home due to 'poorly developed health services': report
A Norwegian university has reportedly backtracked after calling health services in the United States poorly developed.In a post on Facebook, the Norwegian University of Science and Technology advised some international students students to return home."This applies especially if you are staying...
www.rawstory.com
I've had more luck in smaller supermarkets and especially Asian supermarkets, but yeah, it's a bit nuts.
I went to my aunt's house to help her out with a few things as she just had a hip replacement a few weeks ago.
Driving through town, every restaurant was packed as if it was a regular Sunday. Church parking lots were full. People don't seem to be taking this seriously so far. I'm in Indiana FWIW.
Driving through town, every restaurant was packed as if it was a regular Sunday. Church parking lots were full. People don't seem to be taking this seriously so far. I'm in Indiana FWIW.
The US feels like it has the "perfect storm" conditions for this pandemic.
- Tens of millions of people who won't seek treatment because they have no health insurance.
- Those same people likely can't afford to take any time off work.
- Many of those people also have an unhealthy diet and lifestyle, leading to pre-existing conditions that exacerbate COVID-19.
- There's a deeply individualistic "No one tells ME what to do!" culture firmly rooted in the national identity, and a severe mistrust of "experts", so people won't stay home like they're recommended (or even ordered) to do.
This is gonna explode any time now.
- Tens of millions of people who won't seek treatment because they have no health insurance.
- Those same people likely can't afford to take any time off work.
- Many of those people also have an unhealthy diet and lifestyle, leading to pre-existing conditions that exacerbate COVID-19.
- There's a deeply individualistic "No one tells ME what to do!" culture firmly rooted in the national identity, and a severe mistrust of "experts", so people won't stay home like they're recommended (or even ordered) to do.
This is gonna explode any time now.
That's a university, not "Norway". I'd expect the government to be more diplomatic (even though it's totally correct).
They backtracked
Norwegian university tells students in US to return home due to 'poorly developed health services': report
A Norwegian university has reportedly backtracked after calling health services in the United States poorly developed.In a post on Facebook, the Norwegian University of Science and Technology advised some international students students to return home."This applies especially if you are staying...
Its out there now though, and well deserved. U.S. government should he ashamed.
people panic when they are scared.
And while I said that we won't run out of food that doesn't mean that supply and demand won't cause prices to go up while people are out of work and don't have a steady income.
Getting some supplies now isn't a bad idea as long as you avoid peak store hours, but you don't need to stock up for months at a time, just two weeks or so.
More stores should have enacted hard limits on things earlier, and we will see that more often later. The issue though being the more you limit people the more they have to come out and risk being exposed so it's hard to balance.
I mean, people may not like to hear it but it's true. The country's response to the virus is inadequate, and the health services are not only not on par with half of Europe but are also insanely expensive to boot. If you need medical attention due to the coronavirus, the USA is not a place you want it to happen.
The most terrifying number I'm seeing consistently is 20% of cases requiring hospitalization.
Current estimates of mortality aren't terribly helpful at this point. If the number of infections reaches a certain point, second order effects such as an overwhelming of the healthcare system will also cause the rate of morality to increase: too many sick people and not enough resources or staff to treat all of them as well as they could be treaten under lesser load.
Current estimates of mortality aren't terribly helpful at this point. If the number of infections reaches a certain point, second order effects such as an overwhelming of the healthcare system will also cause the rate of morality to increase: too many sick people and not enough resources or staff to treat all of them as well as they could be treaten under lesser load.