Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) resources and discussion thread (Discussion guidelines in OP)

offtopic · Apr 14, 2020

Not sure how we send children back to schools this Fall without a vaccine. The resulting carnage would be...not good.

The only realistic road-map I see to children actually being in the classrooms next fall is massive and multiple changes to infrastructure (need about double the number of classrooms and teachers) and habits (temp screens, widely available testing with quick/accurate results, contact tracing, creating cohorts so they stay with the same limited number of kids all day, etc). Those are nearly impossible things to implement in the next 3-4 months...at best I think we see a blended learning environment with a ton of safety protocols in place.

Antiwhippy · Apr 14, 2020

offtopic said:
Not sure how we send children back to schools this Fall without a vaccine. The resulting carnage would be...not good.

The only realistic road-map I see to children actually being in the classrooms next fall is massive and multiple changes to infrastructure (need about double the number of classrooms and teachers) and habits (temp screens, widely available testing with quick/accurate results, contact tracing, creating cohorts so they stay with the same limited number of kids all day, etc). Those are nearly impossible things to implement in the next 3-4 months...at best I think we see a blended learning environment with a ton of safety protocols in place.

I think it's mostly because children are shown to be mostly uneffected by the virus.

It's not 100% of course, but they are the lowest risk group.

Sadsic · Apr 14, 2020

Antiwhippy said:
I think it's mostly because children are shown to be mostly uneffected by the virus.

It's not 100% of course, but they are the lowest risk group.

they can pass on the virus to their family and teachers though

4Tran · Apr 14, 2020

RamsesGod43 said:
What is the WHO thinking? How does this help anyone? Can someone explain to me how this does not worsen the situation or rearms the virus for a second wave. Why not be cautious and keep these markets closed and reopened when they are deemed not to contribute to health crises local and abroad. The WHO is dropping the ball here.

Nah, it's just people being misinformed. Wet markets aren't particularly different from farmers' markets the world over. The only really questionable thing about them is that some of them had stalls that sold live animals. Those stalls had been banned before and you can bet that this rule is going to be enforced from now on.

solidussnaku said:
Trump admin will take a massive shit all over this and create new global epicenters right into their own country.

Lmao no way this plan does not fail and all the hard work Fauci did go to waste.

The US is already the place where Covid-19 thrives. I don't see these policies doing a whole lot because the federal government hasn't locked anything down so it can't open anything either. States who cared about shutting down are just going to ignore what Trump says and the ones that were going to go along with him were probably going to do so anyways. Yes, it does give shade for them to be stupid, but I think the actual amount of damage caused probably won't be that serious; if only because the US is already in such a dire state.

Charpunk · Apr 14, 2020

Antiwhippy said:
I think it's mostly because children are shown to be mostly uneffected by the virus.

It's not 100% of course, but they are the lowest risk group.

What about their teachers, School staff, parents, and all of the people they interact with?

Antiwhippy · Apr 14, 2020

Sadsic said:
they can pass on the virus to their family and teachers though

Charpunk said:
What about their teachers, School staff, parents, and all of the people they interact with?

I feel like there are studies that they aren't major vectors based on studies in Singapore and South Korea where schools are left open, but I dunno how globally applicable they are.

elty · Apr 14, 2020

solidussnaku said:
Trump admin will take a massive shit all over this and create new global epicenters right into their own country.

Lmao no way this plan does not fail and all the hard work Fauci did go to waste.

His poll number went up.

This virus didn't cure stupidity unfortunately.

darkwing · Apr 14, 2020

Charpunk said:
What about their teachers, School staff, parents, and all of the people they interact with?

I hope they study if children are infectious

but that would mean college is out then

elty · Apr 14, 2020

Antiwhippy said:
I feel like there are studies that they aren't major vectors based on studies in Singapore and South Korea where schools are left open, but I dunno how globally applicable they are.

Correct me if I am wrong, but those people in those countries are also much more cautious and student need to wear mask in school. You cannot expect that anywhere in Europe or North America because of freedom.

zulux21 · Apr 14, 2020

elty said:
His poll number went up.

This virus didn't cure stupidity unfortunately.

In general, regardless as to how someone handles a major event, a president's approval rating will go up quite a bit when something major happens as people rally behind him. George W Bush when from like a 50% to 90% approval rating.

Trump got a slight bump in approval but even that is already starting to go away
by 538

you can already see a fairly significant change back towards where he was before the pandemic and it likely isn't going to stop when it reaches there given how he is handling things.

darkwing · Apr 14, 2020

Trump just halted funding for the WHO, oh boy

Trup1aya · Apr 14, 2020

Antiwhippy said:
I feel like there are studies that they aren't major vectors based on studies in Singapore and South Korea where schools are left open, but I dunno how globally applicable they are.

These places didn't need to shutdown schools because they got a handle on the spread of the disease through testing and contact tracing.

CrazyIvan1978 · Apr 14, 2020

Bing is reporting a giant bump in US death's today, was that some sort of correction from nursing homes or something? I can't tell where it's coming from..

Nabs · Apr 14, 2020

CrazyIvan1978 said:
Bing is reporting a giant bump in US death's today, was that some sort of correction from nursing homes or something? I can't tell where it's coming from..

NYC added 3700 deaths that weren't confirmed cases, but presumed positive.

poklane · Apr 14, 2020

CrazyIvan1978 said:
Bing is reporting a giant bump in US death's today, was that some sort of correction from nursing homes or something? I can't tell where it's coming from..

NYC decided to add 3778 probable deaths, people who didn't get tested before or after they died but do have COVID-19 as cause of death on their death certificate.

greepoman · Apr 14, 2020

CrazyIvan1978 said:
Bing is reporting a giant bump in US death's today, was that some sort of correction from nursing homes or something? I can't tell where it's coming from..

Weekend lag. If you look at the past 4 weeks in the US the Tuesday number is always >50% greater than Monday.

CrazyIvan1978 · Apr 14, 2020

Nabs said:
NYC added 3700 deaths that weren't confirmed cases, but presumed positive.

Interesting, I wonder why the NY page doesn't show that bump

CrazyIvan1978 · Apr 14, 2020

greepoman said:
Weekend lag. If you look at the past 4 weeks in the US the Tuesday number is always >50% greater than Monday.

On Bing, the US is showing +6,179. That's not weekend lag

poklane · Apr 14, 2020

CrazyIvan1978 said:
Interesting, I wonder why the NY page doesn't show that bump

New York State? Those are only throughout yesterday (April 13th) and we don't yet know if the state will also add probably deaths or if they'll just continue reporting confirmed deaths.

elty · Apr 14, 2020

CrazyIvan1978 said:
Bing is reporting a giant bump in US death's today, was that some sort of correction from nursing homes or something? I can't tell where it's coming from..

I think a post in this thread said NY is including those who is suspected to have the virus but not confirmed.

I am not sure what criteria they are using though. In Canada if an institution (i.e. senior homes) outbreak is declared, then everyone who suffered similar symptoms in that place will be counted automatically even without any test. In China they counted people who was not tested, but has certain clinical features (fever + cough + CT Scan showing lung damage) as a confirm case as well.

GoldenEye 007 · Apr 14, 2020

poklane said:
NYC decided to add 3778 probable deaths, people who didn't get tested before or after they died but do have COVID-19 as cause of death on their death certificate.

That 3000 number isn't reported with today's deaths. New reported deaths today were enough to make it the deadliest day in the US for this alone.

poklane · Apr 14, 2020

elty said:
I think a post in this thread said NY is including those who is suspected to have the virus but not confirmed.

I am not sure what criteria they are using though. In Canada if an institution (i.e. senior homes) outbreak is declared, then everyone who suffered similar symptoms in that place will be counted automatically even without any test. In China they counted people who was not tested, but has certain clinical features (fever + cough + CT Scan showing lung damage) as a confirm case as well.

The criteria is having COVID-19 as cause of death on their death certificate.

greepoman · Apr 14, 2020

CrazyIvan1978 said:
On Bing, the US is showing +6,179. That's not weekend lag

Ah hadn't seen it after they added in the NY at home deaths. There is still a big weekend lag if you take out those as well.

Speevy · Apr 14, 2020

I think we're going to break the poor IMHE model at this point.

linkboy · Apr 14, 2020

I really fucking hate what this virus is doing to everyone (easily an understatement), but I need to vent about my situation.

I'm currently trapped at my Trump supporting, not taking this seriously, parent's house. Every day I have to listen to my dad and brother worship Trump, and bitch about anything that goes against that narrative.

I can't go anywhere because the only place I can go is back to my fiancée's mom's house, in South Dakota, which is a ticking time bomb due to Kristi Noem being a useless, Trump supporting bitch.

I'm trapped and I'm losing my fucking mind. I'm literally ready to snap and just lose it, and I don't know what to do.

MrNewVegas · Apr 14, 2020

linkboy said:
I really fucking hate what this virus is doing to everyone (easily an understatement), but I need to vent about my situation.

I'm currently trapped at my Trump supporting, not taking this seriously, parent's house. Every day I have to listen to my dad and brother worship Trump, and bitch about anything that goes against that narrative.

I can't go anywhere because the only place I can go is back to my fiancée's mom's house, in South Dakota, which is a ticking time bomb due to Kristi Noem being a useless, Trump supporting bitch.

I'm trapped and I'm losing my fucking mind. I'm literally ready to snap and just lose it, and I don't know what to do.

That sucks. Probably better to go back to the mother in laws. You have to endure another year of this according to most in this thread.

Deleted member 51691 · Apr 14, 2020

zulux21 said:
In general, regardless as to how someone handles a major event, a president's approval rating will go up quite a bit when something major happens as people rally behind him. George W Bush when from like a 50% to 90% approval rating.

Trump got a slight bump in approval but even that is already starting to go away
by 538

you can already see a fairly significant change back towards where he was before the pandemic and it likely isn't going to stop when it reaches there given how he is handling things.

I think with how polarized we've become since W. Bush we can't expect that same approval bump to happen in the face of major threats anymore

TAJ · Apr 14, 2020

Remember a couple days ago when some people were saying the US already hit its peak? Good times.

BFIB · Apr 14, 2020

Reading these reports about how we may need to social distance until 2022 just made my heart sink.

I feel so bad for my kid. She's an only child and it kills me to think this could last until then.

elty · Apr 14, 2020

Trump turns against WHO to mask his own stark failings on Covid-19 crisis

Dishonest decision to pull funding from World Health Organization will endanger public health

www.theguardian.com

A good comparison between the less than perfect WHO to the absolute disaster of the United States.

BasilZero · Apr 14, 2020

TAJ said:
Remember a couple days ago when some people were saying the US already hit its peak? Good times.

Wait what happened? Unless I missed it, people are still saying that?

offtopic · Apr 14, 2020

Sadsic said:
they can pass on the virus to their family and teachers though

Exactly. The moment we let up and let people gather in large numbers socially the numbers will certainly spike regardless of the age of those passing the virus around. Basically we can not gather in any sort of large groups. Moving desks around would be laughably ineffective.

So, is there really a scenario where we can send kids back to school full time in the absence of a vaccine (herd immunity)? That is 100% wishful thinking.

TAJ · Apr 14, 2020

CrazyIvan1978 said:
Bing is reporting a giant bump in US death's today, was that some sort of correction from nursing homes or something? I can't tell where it's coming from..

No nursing home deaths have been added yet except some from Connecticut, I think?
Nursing home deaths were an extra 2,200 as of several days ago. More now.
New hospital deaths for the day are 2,407 and still climbing a little.
The 3,700-something are mostly previously uncounted, though somewhere between 225-275 likely died at home from COVID-19 in NYC today, with about another 25 dying at home from other things.

Chikor · Apr 14, 2020

What the world can learn from Kerala about how to fight covid-19

The inside story of how one Indian state is flattening the curve through epic levels of contact tracing and social assistance.

www.technologyreview.com

What the world can learn from Kerala about how to fight covid-19
The inside story of how one Indian state is flattening the curve through epic levels of contact tracing and social assistance.

tldr: screening, testing, contact tracing and isolation. Same as every place that got it under control.

Mekanos · Apr 14, 2020

Newsom's response seems very good and measured.

Newsom said any time frame is up in the air. He laid out several benchmarks the state needs to hit before restrictions could start to be lifted, including creating enough room in hospitals to handle another surge of patients and providing enough personal protective equipment to protect first responders.

Newsom also said wider testing capacity would be needed, as well as therapeutics to help treat patients.

"We can't get ahead of ourselves," Newsom said. "Let's not make the mistake of pulling the plug too early."

He said that he expected to have a better idea of timing in about two weeks but that "the prospects of mass gatherings is negligible, at best, until we get to herd immunity and a vaccine." Large-scale events aren't "currently in the cards" for June, July or August unless something changes, he added.

Don't expect mass gatherings, focus on improving testing, expand hospital treatment, don't rush this and let's not set a hard date. I'm pretty happy with this.

cubanb · Apr 14, 2020

Mekanos said:
Newsom's response seems very good and measured.

Don't expect mass gatherings, focus on improving testing, expand hospital treatment, don't rush this and let's not set a hard date. I'm pretty happy with this.

Here's a clip on some of the stuff he theorized about :

Raiku · Apr 14, 2020

Based Newsom

linkboy · Apr 14, 2020

MrNewVegas said:
That sucks. Probably better to go back to the mother in laws. You have to endure another year of this according to most in this thread.

I can't, her mom won't let me come back to her house.

Just got the confirmation from my fiancée.

I'm ready to just live out of my car, anything to get me out of my parent's house.

Sabin · Apr 15, 2020

Came across this analysis by Deep Knowledge Group with some really interessting statistic how countries are doing during the Covid-19 Crisis and im glad to live in germany once again. There are more detailed infos on the website.

Mekanos · Apr 15, 2020

I'm surprised India isn't higher.

0VERBYTE · Apr 15, 2020

CHINA isn't one of the risk countries because we cant trust their numbers, right?

Ziltoidia 9 · Apr 15, 2020

When we start opening up again we will be entering the Wild West stage of this. The amazing thing about this is that the masses actually complied and stayed home. I do feel like people will remain cautious but this isn't going to go away soon since it's ability to spread undetected over days of incubation.

Decarb · Apr 15, 2020

Mekanos said:
I'm surprised India isn't higher.

India has been in a complete lockdown for nearly a month, and I don't mean lockdown as "you can still order games and shoes from amazon online and go to the park alone". Its a complete lockdown including all public transport, all malls and shops except medical and groceries and constant patrolling by cops. People still try to defy it obviously, but it is insane how much the government clamped down on the massive population.

Keyser S · Apr 15, 2020

Sabin said:
Came across this analysis by Deep Knowledge Group with some really interessting statistic how countries are doing during the Covid-19 Crisis and im glad to live in germany once again. There are more detailed infos on the website.

Some of these countries have tested very small amounts per thousand people. This is a bad list. IMO

For example, Japan have tested 0.50 per a thousand people, where New Zealand have tested 11.50 per a thousand, and Australia are on 13.0 per a thousand. But they are neck and neck here?

UK, France, and Spain (all around 3.50) has done more tests per 1000 than Japan. No country can be called safe if they under test even if they take other action. Testing is above all.

India is at 0.09 tests per 1000 anyone wants an idea of how terrible that will get soon

Kyougar · Apr 15, 2020

Keyser S said:
Some of these countries have tested very small amounts per thousand people. This is a bad list. IMO

For example, Japan have tested 0.50 per a thousand people, where New Zealand have tested 11.50 per a thousand, and Australia are on 13.0 per a thousand. But they are neck and neck here?

UK, France, and Spain (all around 3.50) has done more tests per 1000 than Japan. No country can be called safe if they under test even if they take other action. Testing is above all.

India is at 0.09 tests per 1000 anyone wants an idea of how terrible that will get soon

still a hundred times better than the list from 2019 which showed the US the best-prepared country for a pandemic.

GYODX · Apr 15, 2020

The good news is that this first wave was not as bad as the worst predictions, and they we're now mostly at the point where we're thinking about exit strategy rather than if our social distancing measures will successfully flatten the curve; they clearly were very successful.

The bad news is there's no clear exit strategy or end in sight.

Falcon511 · Apr 15, 2020

So question, the last 24 hours I felt a little under the weather. Not a high fever at all but my temperature did go up to 99.2 which isnt that high. I am feeling much better now. No cough or trouble breathing. I do however get hay fever about once a year for this amount of time and I have kept my window open so I am sure Pollen is working its way into my room.

How worried should I be? I doubt they would even give me a test. My temperature is well in the normal range now.

Antiwhippy · Apr 15, 2020

0VERBYTE said:
CHINA isn't one of the risk countries because we cant trust their numbers, right?

It isn't one of the risk countries because they actually treated it seriously.

Joni · Apr 15, 2020

I have the impression my cough is back with a vengeance and I feel like even if I don't have trouble breathing, I miss oxygen, should call doctor again today

Falcon511 said:
So question, the last 24 hours I felt a little under the weather. Not a high fever at all but my temperature did go up to 99.2 which isnt that high. I am feeling much better now. No cough or trouble breathing. I do however get hay fever about once a year for this amount of time and I have kept my window open so I am sure Pollen is working its way into my room.

How worried should I be? I doubt they would even give me a test. My temperature is well in the normal range now.

It is allergies.

uzipukki · Apr 15, 2020

Joni said:
I have the impression my cough is back with a vengeance and I feel like even if I don't have trouble breathing, I miss oxygen, should call doctor again today

No harm in that tbh. Better to be safe than sorry.

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