I still think a few people is sleeping on sm3dw potential. I think the general prediction here is 1.5mil-2mil lifetime..... but why not beat SMO? It has a lot going for it with the multiplayer and add on content that's essentially its own games
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I still think a few people is sleeping on sm3dw potential. I think the general prediction here is 1.5mil-2mil lifetime..... but why not beat SMO? It has a lot going for it with the multiplayer and add on content that's essentially its own games
Why the value of Konami increased so much during the pandemic? What is their secret? Momotaro is carrying them or something else?
Same thing that happen with every gaming company.
Why the value of Konami increased so much during the pandemic? What is their secret? Momotaro is carrying them or something else?
mobile games. and momotaro, of course.
Interesting thought. Super Mario 3D World might have really been the right game on the wrong console, so maybe it will blow up on Switch.
COVID is still a thing, so when Momotaro can keep on trucking because people are coming together to play a game on the TV, then Super Mario 3D World has a good chance to be the right game on the right console at the right time.
Again, you're really under appreciating what SMO did if you think a port of 3D World can beat it. There were ads everywhere in Japan, hype was insane to the point that it beat every expectation in the first week. And to this day it's still charting. You can't gather up that kind of excitement for a 3D World port.
3D World can do extremely well, and still fall way short of SMO.
3D World can do extremely well, and still fall way short of SMO.
For what, Momotaro? It's a board/trivia game about Japan, like prefecture names and stuff like that. Why would they even entertain the idea of a western release?
Well my prediction would be that while it wont have the explosive opening of SMO , It could leg it to that goal(Due to the multiplayer aspect).But we will only know after its been out for a bit
The marketing for 3D World is nowhere near the insanely huge marketing push that SMO got. The hype was on another level. I don't see that now.
It looks fun that's all. I would like to get to try it.
You could grab it from the japanese eshop, I suppose. Unless the problem is the language barrier, I fear you're out of luck if so. It's just one of those games that have no market outside Japan.
Finally it didn't wait until Pikmin 4 to become a million-selling franchise :P
Big brain time: Sell it to all the people who wanted to visit Japan in 2020 and couldn't go.
did Momotaro have the same marketing push as SMO? If not what's gonna sell more in japan 😉
I dunno, Clubhouse would probably be good on mobile but it is also very much a TV game for families as well. Tomodachi Life would work on mobile but they kinda tried that already and it was hard to monetize.
Nintendogs to me is an ideal mobile game. I'd bet there is decent demand for it too. For the kind of game it is I just don't get the sense that there is any demand for it on a console anymore. There is an audience for it who wants to play that on their phones/tablets.
234k but needs to keeping adding fast to fight against week 12/13
can you elaborate for me? Sorry I didn't get what you meant lol
I feel SMO was the perfect culmination of quality, timing, marketing, and being what the audience wanted at the time.
even if SMO didn't exist and 3D World 2 came out in Oct 2017 I don't think it would have done SMO numbers. The perception of the game as a unique feeling new mario adventure and the critical reception to back it was big imo. And big for the Switch
You're right, and honestly, out of all the crazy sales performances of 2020, this is the one that keeps impressing me the most. Even more than the 9M of ACNH. I can't be happier for being wrong, though.
where is the list of 3D Mario's, I think people forgot sm3dl sold over 2mil there
Brilliant!
The exception, not the rule.
Apart from that 3D Land was the big 3DS game back then. It was a holiday title shortly after launch and had the entire life of the 3DS to get over 2mil.
3D World has just half the time left, launching outside of the holidays just before MHR in the year of Pokemon and Zelda anniversaries. It will sell a lot, but it won't outsell SMO.
I just really hope Square Enix won't undership their latest Nintendo RPG again.
I just finished PSO2's story and can't wait for New Genesis.
I just finished PSO2's story and can't wait for New Genesis.
I don't know, Otome games (Bond isn't exactly one, but it seems aimed at the same target audience) have a small but stable following on the West. And being by Nintendo should attract some extra audience. Of course, unless NoA or NoE have some ridiculous expectations.
I see that we are going back to overestimate the sales of a 3D Mario game... it seems that some didn't learn after overestimating 3D All Stars.
Let's say that for 3D World an excellent result would be selling half of Mario Odyssey (Japan and Worlwide) and even that result is in no way guaranteed. Let's see how the first weeks go before we start going over numbers with no basis whatsoever.
Let's say that for 3D World an excellent result would be selling half of Mario Odyssey (Japan and Worlwide) and even that result is in no way guaranteed. Let's see how the first weeks go before we start going over numbers with no basis whatsoever.
I read people claiming after the Kadokawa agreement Sony will be publishing all From Software games, to me this seems unlikely/baseless speculation, I don't say it's impossible because Sony will soon publish their first game on Xbox (MLB The Show) so they aren't completely against multiplatform releases, but I still find very unlikely for Kadokawa and From to quit their partnership with Bandai, is there any evidence to support these claims?
No, Sony will have a 1.93% share in Kadokawa, basically nothing, and its the overall Sony Group not SIE.
For comparison Nintendo has a 5% share in Cygames, who is working on several PlayStation exclusives.
They have a 1.75% share in Bandai Namco who completely ignores Switch for their own games.
They have some shares in Kadokawa themselves.
The problem with the '60fps affects sales' discussion is that it assumes mainstream audiences can even remotely notice the difference between 60 and 30fps.
some of you are acting like they create completely different gameplay experiences and that is just not the case at all. Mainstream consumers 100% only care or realise somethings different if either the frame rate is super unstable, or it goesdown into like 15fps region.
some of you are acting like they create completely different gameplay experiences and that is just not the case at all. Mainstream consumers 100% only care or realise somethings different if either the frame rate is super unstable, or it goesdown into like 15fps region.
Eso ha pasado con todas las compañías de videojuegos durante la pandemia porque muchos fondos de inversión e inversores particulares se han dado cuenta de que los ingresos por videojuegos aumentan en situaciones de confinamiento y se mantienen relativamente estables en situaciones de recesión económica comparados con los ingresos de otras industrias, como la automovilística, donde descienden dramáticamente.Why the value of Konami increased so much during the pandemic? What is their secret? Momotaro is carrying them or something else?
Eso sí, el éxito de Momotaro ha ayudado también, sin duda.
That's indeed baseless speculation.
Having time don't mean a thing, nor does it being a year with MHR Or anniversary of Pokémon/Zelda.
By the time logic, ACNL released under 2 years (during holiday) after the 3ds release vs ACNH during non holiday and 3 years after NSW release (under 5mil after a year vs 9.2mil and counting)
as for release schedules, it's 50/50 as games like nsmbudx and smm2 maybe got under the radar after more releases came out BUT the evergreens also disprove your point (SMP/Splat2/SSBU/MK8D/Minecraft/Etc) because they didn't eat into each other sales. I understand it's a tall order and 1.5mil seems like the safe bet but I'm still hoping for 2mil+ (mainly 2.5mil or more)
ive seen stranger things happen like Momotaro potentially going for 4mil or hell even 5millifetime :P
There are plenty of basis, judging SM3DAS sales doesn't mean it's a 1v1 comparison.
Reasons why SM3DW can reach 2mil+ in japan? Sure I got yah!!!
+Other than the original, this is 3D Mario only Multiplayer Title.
+ 2 3D Mario games done 2mil+, in fact SM64 was right underneath it so basically 3
+A WiiU port and probably Nintendo most ambitious one due to the extra content in Bowsers Fury
+One of the games that can become an evergreen, looking at other games with similar multiplayer aspects such as SMP/MK8D compared to SMO/3Dallstars
+ This one is stupid but I'll say it, it's a switch game and people need to stop counting it out.
regarding my last point, Not all games get that boost (like smm2/nsmbudx/etc vs smm/nsmbu/etc) but there are games you wouldn't think otherwise get surprisingly exceeding sales (we just had 2 games with Pikmin3Deluxe and Momotaro, former which is a port)
3D Mario Shipments
[N64] Super Mario 64 <ACT> (Nintendo) {1996.06.23} (¥9.800) - 1.920.000
[GCN] Super Mario Sunshine <ACT> (Nintendo) {2002.07.19} (¥6.476) - 827.288 (Media Create)
[NDS] Super Mario 64 DS <ACT> (Nintendo) {2004.12.02} (¥4.571) - 1.300.000
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy <ACT> (Nintendo) {2007.11.01} (¥5.524) - 1.030.000
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 <ACT> (Nintendo) {2010.05.27} (¥5.524) - 1.080.000
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.11.03} (¥4.571) - 2.300.000
[WIU] Super Mario 3D World <ACT> (Nintendo) {2013.11.21} (¥5.700) - 756.289 (Media Create)
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥5.980) - 2.620.000 (as of December 2020) [/spoile
[GCN] Super Mario Sunshine <ACT> (Nintendo) {2002.07.19} (¥6.476) - 827.288 (Media Create)
[NDS] Super Mario 64 DS <ACT> (Nintendo) {2004.12.02} (¥4.571) - 1.300.000
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy <ACT> (Nintendo) {2007.11.01} (¥5.524) - 1.030.000
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 <ACT> (Nintendo) {2010.05.27} (¥5.524) - 1.080.000
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.11.03} (¥4.571) - 2.300.000
[WIU] Super Mario 3D World <ACT> (Nintendo) {2013.11.21} (¥5.700) - 756.289 (Media Create)
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥5.980) - 2.620.000 (as of December 2020) [/spoile
I agree. If the State of Emergency continues for the next couple of months, I can see lots of families buying it to play together. It could be big.
In other interesting things to talk about and see in the further, Chris posted 5mil+ sellers last week so I wanted to bring it up again with a bit more insight....
List of the 13 games in order that sold over 5mil in japan
Thats 3 NSW games in the top best sellers of all time.
In comparison PSP (only non Nintendo system) had 1 as well as GBA/FMC/3DS. Next highest was Gameboy with 2 games
Not surprisingly NDS had the most at 5. NSW has MK8D/Splatoon2 which should both be there by end of the year making it tied. Not to mention other games with potential. We could see a top 20 with 7-9games being on NSW alone lifetime
edit: oh I forgot to mention, AC/Pokémon/2D Mario games are the only games with multiple entry's with Brain age/Monster Hunter being the only ones with 1 entry intill SSB came in. Making it the only new franchise in about 10 years to enter 5mil+ club. Splatoon2 as well as Mario Kart are next
List of the 13 games in order that sold over 5mil in japan
1) [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2020.03.20} (¥5.980) - 9.190.000
2)GMB] Pokemon Red |GameBoy/Super GameBoy| <RPG> (Nintendo) {1996.02.27} (¥3.900) - 8.220.000
3) [GMB] Pokemon Gold / Silver |GameBoy/GameBoy Color/Super GameBoy| <RPG> (Nintendo) {1999.11.21} (¥3.800) - 7.300.000
4) [FCM] Super Mario Bros. <ACT> (Nintendo) {1985.09.13} (¥4.900) - 6.810.000
5) [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. <ACT> (Nintendo) {2006.05.25} (¥4.571) - 6.490.000
6) [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.11.08} (¥4.571) - 5.850.000
7) [NDS] Pokemon Diamond / Pearl <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2006.09.28} (¥4.571) - 5.850.000
8) [NDS] Pokemon Black / White # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2010.09.18} (¥4.571) - 5.540.000
9) [GBA] Pokemon Ruby / Sapphire <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2002.11.21} (¥4.571) - 5.400.000
10) [NDS] Animal Crossing: Wild World <ETC> (Nintendo) {2005.11.23} (¥4.571) - 5.350.000
11) [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 # <ACT> (Capcom) {2010.12.01} (¥5.524) - 5.300.000
12) [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 5.170.000 (as of December 2020)
13) [NDS] More Brain Training from Dr. Kawashima: How Old Is Your Brain? <HOB> (Nintendo) {2005.12.29} (¥2.540) - 5.100.000
Bonus...
14) Pokémon Sword / Shield 4.990.000
2)GMB] Pokemon Red |GameBoy/Super GameBoy| <RPG> (Nintendo) {1996.02.27} (¥3.900) - 8.220.000
3) [GMB] Pokemon Gold / Silver |GameBoy/GameBoy Color/Super GameBoy| <RPG> (Nintendo) {1999.11.21} (¥3.800) - 7.300.000
4) [FCM] Super Mario Bros. <ACT> (Nintendo) {1985.09.13} (¥4.900) - 6.810.000
5) [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. <ACT> (Nintendo) {2006.05.25} (¥4.571) - 6.490.000
6) [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.11.08} (¥4.571) - 5.850.000
7) [NDS] Pokemon Diamond / Pearl <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2006.09.28} (¥4.571) - 5.850.000
8) [NDS] Pokemon Black / White # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2010.09.18} (¥4.571) - 5.540.000
9) [GBA] Pokemon Ruby / Sapphire <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2002.11.21} (¥4.571) - 5.400.000
10) [NDS] Animal Crossing: Wild World <ETC> (Nintendo) {2005.11.23} (¥4.571) - 5.350.000
11) [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 # <ACT> (Capcom) {2010.12.01} (¥5.524) - 5.300.000
12) [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 5.170.000 (as of December 2020)
13) [NDS] More Brain Training from Dr. Kawashima: How Old Is Your Brain? <HOB> (Nintendo) {2005.12.29} (¥2.540) - 5.100.000
Bonus...
14) Pokémon Sword / Shield 4.990.000
Thats 3 NSW games in the top best sellers of all time.
In comparison PSP (only non Nintendo system) had 1 as well as GBA/FMC/3DS. Next highest was Gameboy with 2 games
Not surprisingly NDS had the most at 5. NSW has MK8D/Splatoon2 which should both be there by end of the year making it tied. Not to mention other games with potential. We could see a top 20 with 7-9games being on NSW alone lifetime
edit: oh I forgot to mention, AC/Pokémon/2D Mario games are the only games with multiple entry's with Brain age/Monster Hunter being the only ones with 1 entry intill SSB came in. Making it the only new franchise in about 10 years to enter 5mil+ club. Splatoon2 as well as Mario Kart are next
3D World + Bowsers Fury outselling Odyssey goes up there with suggestions Pikmin 3 would do 5 million and Age Of Calamity doing 10 million WW as completely unrealistic expectations talked about in these these threads.
As usual divide your numbers in half to get the better estimate
As usual divide your numbers in half to get the better estimate
This is a better reply than throwing a number several times per MC thread, but...
Didn't boost sales of the Wii U game, seeing what other multiplayer titles sold in the system (Splatoon).
And 5 3D Mario games (one being the same 3D World) have done (much) less than 2 million.
No 3D Mario port has sold 2 million (or being close to that). I'll give you the extra content as a plus for getting better sales though.
Comparing the 3D World multiplayer with other multiplayer games such as SMP and MK8D... you could throw Smash Bros and Splatoon too if you want but that doesn't make it a valid point for selling 2 million or becoming an evergreen. (Do you know that NSMBU has also multiplayer, is also a mario title, 2D (more popular than 3D) and in no way is an evergreen such as the multiplayer titles you mentioned?)
Saying that a 3D Mario World port could reach 1.3 million in Japan and more than 10 million worlwide is in no way counting it out. Please read carefully what you're quoting and replying.
At least I'll give you kudos for giving a more detailed (but flawed IMO) reply. And I repeat, I'm not saying that the 3D world can't reach the heights you're estimating but right now these heights are more based in hunchs and wishes than actual data that could support your thesis.
didnt have to divide half for other things. As for pikmin 3, everyone been saying 1mil in japan for the optimistic prediction here. You picking 2 examples doesn't justify that sm3dw could be a sleeper hit
I overall agree about Mario in particular but it is a bit easy to shut down some people's expectations without giving your own.
Sometimes game blow out and sometimes they don't. I don't think you expected Momotaro to sell 2.5m units in 2.5 months nor Pikmin 3 DX to become a million-seller in Japan. These happened in past 3 months.