This is not something easy to answer but the short answer is not bend over backwards like trump did.
Massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine
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This is not something easy to answer but the short answer is not bend over backwards like trump did.
Unless Russia gets close to Kiev, no one is doing anything besides 'sanctions'.
Fact of the matter is that Putin if he wanted to could pour millions of Russian troops into Ukraine, kill hundreds of thousands of people and beyond some token sanctions nothing would happen.
Ukraine would have gone on that path after Euromaiden, but Russia invaded because they know NATO is never gonna accept a country which is in an active war with them. Ukraine joining NATO and even the EU is simply impossible as long as Russia continues their occupation, Russia knows that and is such will continue the occupation. That's also why they've been in Moldova for about 3 decades and partitioned Georgia in 2008.
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There's some reports that the Donetsk People's Republic, the Russian-backed faction in Eastern Ukraine, is starting to conscript civilians, starting with a batch of 200.
I don't know if they'll actually do that or if they're providing a cover for 200 more Russian "volunteers" to enter their ranks.
Either way it sounds like things are building up.
Well then, this certainly looks way more than posturing. Hope I'm wrong.
Yep setting the table for something to happen. Hopefully Ukrainians are better prepared this time if Russians launch an offensive. We'll see how much difference US aid will make.
Unlike the likes of Kim Jim Un
Putin scares the shit out of me because he's smart and has the tools needed
He's going to keep pushing the envelope because he knows he can
if we ever went to WW3 i would bet good money Russia be somewhat responsible for it
...... and to be fair America be a close second
obviously this won't lead to anything like WW3 so I'm not trying to fearmonger I just have big anxiety to stuff like this
Putin scares the shit out of me because he's smart and has the tools needed
He's going to keep pushing the envelope because he knows he can
if we ever went to WW3 i would bet good money Russia be somewhat responsible for it
...... and to be fair America be a close second
obviously this won't lead to anything like WW3 so I'm not trying to fearmonger I just have big anxiety to stuff like this
NATO needs to ready some brigades of quick reaction forces. They'll only act if they think there wont be opposition.
They breach US airspace too and just get told to leave. That's normal probing, nobody opens fire in those situations.
Yeah that aint happening. Prepare for some minor sanctions and strongly worded letters™
US considering sending warships to Black Sea amid Russia-Ukraine tensions
The United States is considering sending warships into the Black Sea in the next few weeks in a show of support for Ukraine amid Russia's increased military presence on Ukraine's eastern border, a US defense official told CNN Thursday.
edition.cnn.com
Turkey says U.S. warships to deploy in Black Sea until May 4
The United States has informed Turkey that two of its warships will pass through Turkish straits to be deployed in the Black Sea until May 4, Ankara said on Friday, as Russia has bulked up its military forces on Ukraine's eastern border.
www.reuters.com
Doesn't matter, Turkey can't stop such warships entering the Black Sea.
Huge news, Turkey entered the game:
Turkey and Ukraine also signed defense cooperation.
tass.com
Turkey and Ukraine also signed defense cooperation.
Turkey ready to support conflict settlement effort in eastern Ukraine - Erdogan
Turkish President also said they had agreed with Vladimir Zelensky to "continue strategic partnership"
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I don't think so. You really think any of the nato countries have any appetite for a war with Russia?
Apparently those in the know think the real reason for the build up is that Crimea is going to run out of water. They do not have proper access to enough clean water and Putin will try to push through to the dam on the Dnipro at Nova Kakhovka to gain access to the river. West needs to pre-empt....means Magnitsky sanctions against Putin's oligarch's who own his wealth.
A broader Novorossiya strategy is in the bin for the moment, Putin knows it would be far too costly, the Ukrainians would wreck his shit with a guerilla war once he breaks through into predominantly non-primary Russian speaking areas.
A broader Novorossiya strategy is in the bin for the moment, Putin knows it would be far too costly, the Ukrainians would wreck his shit with a guerilla war once he breaks through into predominantly non-primary Russian speaking areas.
According to Ukrainian intelligence the Russian "separatists" have prepared 3 letters directly for Putin. 1 asks for Russian military intervention, the 2nd asks for annexation and the 3rd asks for recognizing their independence
www.pravda.com.ua
“ДНР” хоче попросити у Путіна військової допомоги або приєднання до РФ – розвідка
Керівництво так званої “ДНР” попередньо підготувало три різні варіанти звернення до президента РФ Володимира Путіна, серед яких і прохання надати військову допомогу.
www.pravda.com.ua
I remember reading an article last year about the water situation there being dire. I take it that's partially a legacy of Crimea being administratively part of Ukraine for decades?
I guess it explains why they spent so much getting a bridge up quickly. Although that's not going to solve all the infrastructure issues.
When crimera was seized by Russia, crimera got 85% of it's drinking/farming water from mainland Ukraine via a canal. Ukraine, correctly, promptly, closed the canal and cut off water supplies.
I'm also going to guess, charges and been placed all along the canal. So at the event Russia is attempting to seize it, they will scuttle the entire canal.
I'm also going to guess, charges and been placed all along the canal. So at the event Russia is attempting to seize it, they will scuttle the entire canal.
Navy Warships Could Head into the Black Sea as Russia-Ukraine Tensions Escalate
The U.S. Navy is reportedly considering moving two ships into the Black Sea after Russia announced it was sending 10 vessels there.
Yes, Crimea doesn't have the water resources necessary to sustain itself and Russia is unable to provide them via new infrastructure. Here is a short anlysis of the water situation:
Yup. Crimea relies on the Dnieper river for its water supply through a canal which was build between 1961 and 1975. When Russia invaded the peninsula Ukraine gave Russia the finger by damming the canal, cutting Crimea off from its water supply. Since then Crimea has been cut off and its water reserves have slowly been depleting. If a Russian invasion happens reopening the canal will 100% be their main objective.
If Russia makes a movie its going to be a big one. They will attempt to capture a large chunk of the southern ocean border of Ukraine so they have a land bridge to Crimea and at the same time cripple Ukraine's access to sea ports. I would expect them to try and seize Mariupol, Melitopol, and Kherson.
These were all initial targets in the beginning invasion but Ukraine managed to hold out at Mariupol and stopped the big push west
These were all initial targets in the beginning invasion but Ukraine managed to hold out at Mariupol and stopped the big push west
Um, shit. So there's a legit chance there could be more conflict?
No one knows what Putin has planned. Could be a distraction from internal pressure, could be a build up for a invasion.
That the west is currently pumping arms into ukraine while doing a extraordinary amount of recon flights tells me they don't know either.
Well, Russia already had military bases on Crimea and used relatively little force (mostly spec ops to occupy key positions afaik) to occupy it, so no. It was different for the war in Donbass (Eastern Ukraine) later.
Even a surprise lightning-swift attack takes a lot of preparation. The faster you want to go, the bigger a hassle it is. Even if they were entirely unopposed and had free supplies stationed throughout the area, the traffic management alone would give planners nightmares. Oh shit, someone took a wrong turn and now three battalions are backed up and and tanks can't get to the bridge they were meant to cross and the nearby alternatives can't be freed up or the AA won't be in place and, and, and
The fact that Ukraine cut the water to the peninsula tells me that Ukraine sees Crimea as part of Russia. It's virtually impossible to reconcile with people after you cut the water on them. It's a very clear signal that you want to kill them all.
hopefully they realise if they (Russia) want to occupy Crimea, they need to bring basic infrastructure and if not turn their anger towards Russia.
I realize that it was Russia's responsibility to provide the infrastructure but it could be explained by incompetence but what Ukraine did can't be explained by anything other than contempt for the Crimeans.
Russia was able to build a giant bridge to Crimea in no time, I am sure they could have managed to create an alternative water supply as well.
Lol. Sure Russia shouldn't have stolen Ukrainian land, but why didn't Ukraine help them out after? Come the fuck on.
Cutting off infrastructure to invaders and the land they take isn't unusual.
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