Russian Armor Floods Toward Border With Ukraine Amid Fears Of An "Imminent Crisis"
A flurry of alarming reports and social media posts indicate that Russia is pouring military hardware into Crimea and its border with Eastern Ukraine.
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Trains loaded with large amounts of Russian military hardware, including tanks and other heavy armored vehicles, as well as heavy artillery, appear to be streaming toward the country's borders with Ukraine. There are unconfirmed reports that the scale of these movements is so significant that it has, to the dismay of Russian farmers, disrupted shipments of tractors and other agricultural equipment ahead of the spring harvest season. U.S. officials are now worried that a new major round of fighting between Russia and Ukraine may be imminent as a ceasefire is at risk of expiring tomorrow.
It's not entirely clear when the Russian buildup began, but video footage and other imagery reportedly showing armored vehicles and other military equipment on trains heading toward southwestern Russian has been appearing on social media since at least March 27, 2021. There have also been sightings of large ground convoys and groups of aircraft.
This includes at least one clip of a trainload of 152mm 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzers, BMP-3 infantry fight vehicles, and other military vehicles, crossing a bridge that now links Russia to the Crimean Peninsula, and footage of what appears to be the same train in the Crimean city of Kerch. Russian forces seized this region from Ukraine in 2014 and the Kremlin subsequently annexed it.
"We've reached out to Russia to try to gain a little more clarity on what's going on," top Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby said on March 31. U.S. Army General Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had reached out to his Russian counterpart, General Valery Gerasimov, on March 31, 2021, to ask about the troop movements, but it's unclear what the Russian response was to those queries. Milley also spoke with Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Ruslan Khomchak about the developing situation.
"The Russian Federation continues its aggressive policy towards Ukraine," Khomchak had told his country's parliament on March 30. "An additional concentration of up to 25 tactical groups is expected, which, together with the already deployed forces near the state border of Ukraine, poses a threat to the military security of the state."
It's not clear exactly how much additional Russian military hardware is actually heading towards the border with Ukraine, but there are reports that the deliveries are substantial enough to have disrupted the movement of other goods via rail, such as agricultural tractors, in the country, according to the Kommersant newspaper. The Russian Ministry of Defense did not respond to Kommersant's queries on the matter and, interestingly, the outlet's sources within the country's defense establishment denied the claims that large numbers of flatbed railcars have been requisitioned from state railroad operators for military use.
Though the new Russian military buildup is clearly at least a message meant for Ukrainian authorities, what the Kremlin's exact plan is remains unclear. The Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, which includes representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the multinational Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), reportedly failed to agree on the terms of an extension of an existing ceasefire agreement in Donbass beyond April 1.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken did reiterate the U.S. government's support for Ukraine's "sovereignty and territorial integrity" in a call today with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. The United States, as well as most of the international community, does not recognize Russia's occupation of Crimea or "separatist" claims in Donbass. However, Ukraine is not a NATO member or otherwise a formal American ally, though they are an important regional security partner, and it's unclear how willing or able the U.S. government would be to prevent any new major incursion by Russia into Ukraine.
Whatever the exact goals of Russia's new military buildup near Ukraine might be, it has already succeeded in provoking concerns about a new escalation in the conflict between the two countries.
