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Massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine
- Thread starter Forerunner
- Start date
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If, or when, the actual invasion happens please make a new thread. A lot of people will actively ignore larger threads and important news shouldn't be buried in older threads.
They haven't annexed Abkhazia or South Ossetia, having them "independent" but under Russian protection ensures Georgia remains in a continued state of civil war, barring its admission to NATO, I think they will apply the same principle here.
Considering there's no Ukrainian military presence in the areas occupied by Russian puppets, that would be a waste of time they could potentially spend doing something useful
If there is anything that points to the start of an invasion.. it's "declaring" those regions are independent.
IT's a whole mess.
Doubt that is happening as that doesn't include Kakhovka, which is where Crimea's fresh water used to come from prior to it being blocked by Ukraine and is causing a serious strategic issue for Russia there. I think invasion is baked in already; maybe they send the ultimatum just for show but Russia needs more than just that.
An invasion absolutely needs a new thread. We were talking about updating the thread title to show that Putin has recognized the area as "independent".
Probably not annex them; then they'll become part of Russia's official budgets and that's more headache than it's worth.
It'll just be 2 more "unrecognized states", same as Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and what's left of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The expectation all along is that it was mostly just eastern Ukraine that was at the greatest risk. So if he goes beyond those areas it will not be by much.
Putin simply doesn't have the manpower and the local support to take all of Ukraine.
Annexation isn't guaranteed, Crimea was annexed because he sees Khrushchev giving it away to Ukrainian SSR as an illegal and drunken move (there's even legal debate about it, but it doesn't matter since Russia signed the Budapest memorandum recognizing Crimea as Ukrainian). But keeping the DPR and LPR as "independent" similar to South Ossetia and Abkhazia is more likely, more leverage against Ukraine that way, it will put them in perpetual civil war and blocking NATO membership.
Is there any contingency in NATO to allow for acceptance on grounds of an emergency? If Zelensky and NATO, right now, both agreed on membership, could Ukraine immediately come under NATO protection. Putting aside the likelihood of this happening, is it possible?
I guess it depends on what you mean by "go for broke".
He isn't going to try and take all of Ukraine. He literally couldn't achieve it even if he tried with his current force. He just doesn't have the manpower and the local support needed to hold it.
What's the point? The minute SVR catches wind of such discussions Putin will give the invasion order and kiev will fall before Zelensky can sign a NATO treaty
I remember listening to a YT video about the current situation, and more than a few people inside Abkhazia and South Ossetia are quite unhappy, since they feel trapped in a continuous groundhog-day-style loop of the bad old days from the early-mid-90s, but feel powerless to do anything.
No. Its not possible. There is no process for immediate membership. And even if there was it wouldn't be able to be enacted fast enough before Russia stepped in. Not to mention the fact that many NATO members would probably say no anyway because they do not want to get involved in a war against Russia.
No, there are steps that take years, ranging from military to reforms to Human rights (which I find strange considering Turkey is in there) and all members have to accept the admission. Any one member can veto or delay the admission.
I literally said "putting aside the likelihood". I'm not asking if there's a good chance of this happening, I'm asking if anywhere in the documents outline NATO's governance, is there any section outlining some sort of emergency acceptance. And the point of such an emergency acceptance would force Putin to back down or come into a confrontation with NATO, which I'm assuming he'd like to avoid.
There is not. And they wouldn't be able to put one into place either.
Go for broke... this gives them pretext to "assist" the "separatists", invading both areas. Fighting will break out between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces. Russia will intervene, then continue on under the guise of defense, or what have you. They're going to do it.
Being Russia has no qualms doing a decapitation strike, what choice do you have here? Again he could go to the far SW to try and stay out of at least the opening air attacks, but still risky.
Personally I'm hoping that he chooses to stay. Seeing your president flee the country is not exactly good for morale.
Lord, imagine if Trump was President right now. He'd offer to get a private jet for Zelensky to protect him and then have the plane drop him off in front of Putins residence.
Putin still has objectives and Ukraine is actually a bit smaller than Texas. Russia already owns the air and sea, and the whole country has miles and miles of road. It wouldn't be difficult to take and hold it. They could still come down from the north and split the country in 2 cutting them off from each other and causing more chaos and confusion. I wouldn't bet on him stopping here.
On the one hand, it still appears that this is a step down from trying to conquer the whole country, at least at this moment in time. Which would also explain the reports of why supply lines to the soldiers in Belarus have been utter garbage. I mean, you can't expect soldiers to buy their own food while they're busy fighting.
On the other hand, the repercussions are now inevitable. Europe is going to be remilitarised, Russia further shunned, and a new cold war status quo will set in.
At this point, relations will not return to normal until Putin passes away. He has burned every single bridge with the west, nobody will trust him ever again.
On the other hand, the repercussions are now inevitable. Europe is going to be remilitarised, Russia further shunned, and a new cold war status quo will set in.
At this point, relations will not return to normal until Putin passes away. He has burned every single bridge with the west, nobody will trust him ever again.
Yeah this happening soon now, that was his play huh. Technically he's not invading if it's not Ukraine!? :/
Always going to have plans like this it would be silly not too.
The thing is though, he is the legitimate leader of Ukraine. If he's still alive, he is still considered that. If he's dead... That's another story.
Weren't there's also reports that Russian military officers have a list of people to take into custody and or execute when they actually do invade? That tracks if they are planning to evacuate him in the event of an invasion.
Why are so many posts assuming this is the end game? This is a step towards invasion, not away from it.
why would nato accept a country that's about to be invaded?
it'd be inviting war or nuclear war
Crimea was annexed because they need a place to keep their fleet that has to be formally within Russian jurisdiction.
Incursions by Russian terrorist Strelkov into Donbas was meant to be a start of a massive separatist movement throughout all southern and eastern regions of Ukraine, but by early May 2014 it became clear that it was localized to the urbanized, industrial heartland of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in other major cities, pro-Ukrainian activists clearly outnumbered the few pro-Russian separatists and these 'rebellions" were quashed before they could begin.
Even in Donbas, the more agrarian regions north of Luhansk, as well as to the west of Donetsk did not support the so-called independence movement. Neither did the regions to the south of Donetsk between Mariupol and the Russian border-these regions were in Ukrainian control up until late August 2014 when Russians crossed the border and flanked the Ukrainian forces advancing on Donetsk from the south, leading to the encirclement and massacre at Illovaysk (where Russians promised Ukrainian volunteer corps safe passage out if they disarmed and then shot them), and a drive by the Russians to recapture Mariupol that was halted along the Kalmius river.
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