People think RDR is going to win? If Jeff is against it, there's almost no way it wins. Jeff is the most dominant voice in the room, followed by Brad, followed by Dan. Two of those people are HIGHLY anti-Red Dead.
For that matter, I think Jeff has only "lost" GOTY debate... once? Skyrim beat out Saints Row (he was right then, and he is still right now). Every other year, either his game has won or he didn't have a horse in the race, negative or positive. Anything is still possible of course, and I'm not trying to say that Jeff's opinion is the be-all, end-all, but looking at the way these talks have historically gone, I just don't see it.