US Midterm Elections 2018 |OT| Babs is Surging

808s & Villainy · Nov 6, 2018

I can't watch these 538 odds. They're too stressful

Sagadego17 · Nov 6, 2018

Xe4 said:
You gotta be careful with live forecasts, one way or another. They're a good indicator, but volatile.
So don't freak out one way or another, too much.

do you blame'em after 2016 shitfest that was the presidential election

hamhock · Nov 6, 2018

Beto up 2% on Cruz right now? Does he actually have a chance?

Xe4 · Nov 6, 2018

To quote myself from earlier in the thread:

Nate SIlver posted a pretty good take on regarding the NYT election tracker back during the Alabama special election:

The Upshot's model shows good news for Jones, but it has also been swinging around a fair bit. A few minutes ago, they had him with a 90 percent chance of winning, but that probability is now back down to 67 percent.

I really admire what the Upshot folks are trying to do, but it's also worth noting that building a live-updating model based on partial returns is a really hard problem. Among other things, its hard to calibrate your estimates of uncertainty based on empirical data, because (to put this in a nontechnical way) every state and every election is different. So I'd keep a watchful eye on the Upshot's dials to get an overall sense of how things are trending, but I wouldn't take the probabilities too literally, at least until later in the night.

Click to expand...

Click to shrink...

Remember guys, it's modeling, shit ain't easy, but that don't mean there's no use for it. Don't disparage it, just as you shouldn't put too much faith in it. Think of it as another tool to let you know how the night is going.

Just as you shouldn't freak out if it says a hurricane is going to land in your area a week and a half away, you shouldn't loose your mind when it comes to the model predicting races early on. That doesn't mean you shouldn't keep an eye on it.

The same applies to 538's live model. Keep an eye on it, but it's not the only thing, especially early on in the race.

Super Corpse Soldier · Nov 6, 2018

Kitsunelaine said:
A warning, specifically, if I recall, right? There's nothing wrong with warning people. It helps set the tone and can even be used as a friendly reminder. It's not like they were asking for a banning, and If I'm wrong on that, you can call me out on it. I think you're overreacting.

Warnings become bans if the user has received warnings for other things. Also looks like pessimism wasn't all that unwise tonight.

fade · Nov 6, 2018

538's realtime odds seems to be the new NY times needle. Calm down guys.

ginger ninja · Nov 6, 2018

Stop fucking posting about 538 JC

stillwrapped · Nov 6, 2018

Let's relax a bit. Still early

DrewFu · Nov 6, 2018

Socivol said:
Seriously how are people still voting for Republicans after the shit show that has been these past 2 years?

The economy.

BriGuy · Nov 6, 2018

If the Dems don't take the house, I'm done. Just completely done. I'm not doing this to myself anymore and I'm not going to give a shit about the plight of people who don't give enough of a shit about themselves to vote.

Deleted member 4321 · Nov 6, 2018

Might want to step away from the tv and computer for an hour or two.

key · Nov 6, 2018

https://twitter.com/LEX18News/status/1059978577192595456

Looks like Barr for Kentucky. Sigh.

mentallyinept · Nov 6, 2018

KoolAid said:
Stop looking at 538, people

They were the only ones that gave Trump a chance in hell in 2016.

That's why I trust them.

ErnieMcCracken · Nov 6, 2018

Carville not feeling good about this on MSNBC, not good.

Dyle · Nov 6, 2018

I remember when we all swore off the needle, yet everyone here is so focused on the 538-o-meter

Uno Venova · Nov 6, 2018

entremet said:
You guys are still traumatized from 2016. Relax.

I mean, rightly so

TheCed · Nov 6, 2018

Please USA
Make the right choice.

eebster · Nov 6, 2018

What kind of shitty algorithm is 538 using when it keeps on flipping the whole time?

intheflorsh · Nov 6, 2018

entremet said:
You guys are still traumatized from 2016. Relax.

Anyone who can relax through this is part lizard.

ErichWK · Nov 6, 2018

Haha my fucking heart at those 538 drops and rises is like sitting in a plane in massive turbulence

Tamanon · Nov 6, 2018

I think people are going to have to review again what the live tracker actually calculates based off of, lol.

Tebunker · Nov 6, 2018

PhilosopherDirtBike said:
Jesus fucking christ the 538 house forecast is all over the goddamn place what the fuck it just doubled in favor of democrats

See

Can we BAN 538 please.

It is less reliable than VGChartz

Rean · Nov 6, 2018

i am not american (eu) but i was there during the 2016 elections working night shifts, and today i am also working my night shift.

and i am having a strong deja vu reading this thread.

dont fuck up again america

Bryo4321 · Nov 6, 2018

Smokeymicpot said:

WEEW So when can we legalize?

ViewtifulJC · Nov 6, 2018

LMAO trump won again y'all

JB2448 · Nov 6, 2018

entremet said:
You guys are still traumatized from 2016. Relax.

Blame us. Blame us right fucking now.

saelz8 · Nov 6, 2018

The people that voted for Trump still want to vote for Trump. Trump isn't the problem. He's a representation of the problem. He's a manifestation of millions of people in this country, and their views given form.

Kotto · Nov 6, 2018

entremet said:
You guys are still traumatized from 2016. Relax.

I refuse to relax after 2016

FTF · Nov 6, 2018

FL and IN smh

Plinko · Nov 6, 2018

Punished Snaku said:
Blue ripple. Fuck me.

It's only 8:30 EST!

RBH · Nov 6, 2018

A quick glance at this page is the reason why I can't watch any election night coverage or follow this thread, just like in 2016.

Makes my anxiety jump through the roof.

Strike · Nov 6, 2018

Good thing I'm at a bar this time just in case. Either way, I need a drink.

Typhonsentra · Nov 6, 2018

Oh boy, I wish I hadn't just checked those Florida results.

MrNewVegas · Nov 6, 2018

MassiveNights said:
I'm turning off 538, that live forecast is a piece of shit

Lmfao it's called sample size

MrSaturn99 · Nov 6, 2018

Yeah, I'm out to play Smash. I'll check back in a couple hours.

JCHandsom · Nov 6, 2018

entremet said:
You guys are still traumatized from 2016.

Yeah and I say that's justified considering what has and most likely will happen

Olaf · Nov 6, 2018

This entire thread is like deja vu.

RoKKeR · Nov 6, 2018

RBH said:
A quick glance at this page is the reason why I can't watch any election night coverage or follow this thread, just like in 2016.

Makes my anxiety jump through the roof.

Yeah I'm gonna have to bail on this thread.

daveo42 · Nov 6, 2018

entremet said:
You guys are still traumatized from 2016. Relax.

No shit. We've been traumatized since election night.

Brinbe · Nov 6, 2018

Looks like KY 6th is out of reach. Damn, made it a close race.

Think Dems will hold the house but things won't turn out as well as we hoped considering who's in the WH.

Kthulhu · Nov 6, 2018

5 in 9 now.

TokyoJoe · Nov 6, 2018

Hate is about to do it, hate from old white people.

Steel · Nov 6, 2018

Fucking Florida.

Deleted member 6562 · Nov 6, 2018

I kind of like it, get hyped.

MinusTydus · Nov 6, 2018

James Carville:

"This is not gonna be the wave election people were hoping for."

Mirk · Nov 6, 2018

If this thread doesn't read like 2016.

Charpunk · Nov 6, 2018

I can't wait to move out of Florida. Fuck this state.

Ukraine · Nov 6, 2018

As somebody who watched 538 odds during world cup I would not look too much onto them. They are basically saying how things looking right now not were they will end up. That said I'm having flashbacks of 2016 because Florida sucks.

Davey Cakes · Nov 6, 2018

I'm a leftist but the Dem party showed their colors in 2016 by squashing Bernie in favor of a corporate war monger.

If there is a time to be humbled, it's now.

OrdinaryPrime · Nov 6, 2018

eebster said:
What kind of shitty algorithm is 538 using when it keeps on flipping the whole time?

They have multiple algorithms. I'm not sure which one people are referring to. There are three different ones.

Davey Cakes said:
I'm a leftist but the Dem party showed their colors in 2016 by squashing Bernie in favor of a corporate war monger.

If there is a time to be humbled, it's now.

You mean voters did that right?

US Midterm Elections 2018 |OT| Babs is Surging

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