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Aug 12, 2019
5,159
Florida was a lot different because that data was made based on the assumptions that polling was mostly right and non-party affiliated voters would break towards Biden in the end. However, the opposite happened and Trump actually did better than most expected.

I mean, I'm just recognizing the patterns here of early data looking very good, but the reality being so incredibly off the expectation because certain assumptions were made that did not come to fruition with different voting blocks and voters in general. It wasn't just Florida in that regard either, we definitely saw a similar break in Texas, and then we also saw how close Arizona came after early returns looked better. Then we really saw how crazy things went in like Maine too with the Senate race up there. Jared Golden managed to win re-election, but the 2nd Congressional District broke hard for Trump and Susan Collins.

I just think making any assertions with the early data is unhelpful after the year we've seen so far from elections.
 

McNum

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,234
Denmark
You'd think if the GOP sided with Dems just once on the $2000 stimulus they would probably have this in the bag. That's how much they fucking hate helping people
You'd think that the winning strategy for an incumbent President during a pandemic would be to to take it seriously and make a big show about being the only one who can contain it.

They're not really that good with obvious layups for victory.
 
There's absolutely no way Republican turnout can be more than the general.

Been thinking about Georgia SoS bitching tens of thousands of Republicans gave up on voting due to voter fraud conspiracy in the general. And that shit has only gotten louder thanks to Trump.

I think she'll make another run for the Governor's chair
If everything aligned, a political saga that would make.

Loses governorship to open voter suppression and corruption.

Dominates the runback and delivers presidency and senate in Georgia.

Then comes back for match 2 and takes the chair.
 

Damaniel

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
6,544
Portland, OR
Not getting that $2,000 check is another nail in the coffin for the GOP. Trump not anywhere on the ballot will reduce voter turn-out. Hoping for Ossoff and Warmock to win.

Its all up to you Georgia.

We keep on talking about nails in the coffin for the GOP, and every time they come back stronger than ever. Trump in 2016 was supposed to be the end of the GOP, Biden in 2020 was going to be the end of the GOP, and now a lack of stimulus money is going to be the end of the GOP.

Nothing will end the GOP, as long as stupid racist people continue to be stupid and racist.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,588
Racoon City
There has been a nail in the coffin of the GOP since the 90s. It's such an empty statement in a country where vast majority of the people care more about the appearance of civility and togetherness than any meaningful action. The GOP could attempt a coup… and nothing of consequence would happen to the party
 

Darryl M R

The Spectacular PlayStation-Man
Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,727
It's possible to dislike Pelosi and hate Republicans more.
It's also possible to not invoke her name every time, especially when she is not involved with the subject at hand: DNC Chair. It's almost like people were conditioned to hate her not for what is in her control but for any and everything.

Feel free to read through the comment that I responded to and explain how invoking Pelosi's name makes any sense.
 
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BWoog

Member
Oct 27, 2017
38,480
There has been a nail in the coffin of the GOP since the 90s. It's such an empty statement in a country where vast majority of the people care more about the appearance of civility and togetherness than any meaningful action. The GOP could attempt a coup… and nothing of consequence would happen to the party

I mean they're doing one right now. I think the majority of the GOP knows it'll fail and it's just to placate Trump but still, a coup is a coup.
 
Oct 27, 2017
42,893
You'd think that the winning strategy for an incumbent President during a pandemic would be to to take it seriously and make a big show about being the only one who can contain it.

They're not really that good with obvious layups for victory.
Because they largely don't have to. Their voters don't vote based on their actions, they vote to not have the other side win. That's all they care about
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
Both those things are awesome. I would imagine some of the under 25 vote are high schoolers just turning 18. The rest may be folk who did not register in time for November or who were inspired by the GOP's fuckery.
Probably a fair number too who were motivated by Biden's win. Prior to the election it was very easy to categorize Georgia as a red state that had zero chance of turning blue, thus leading to minimal enthusiasm or feeling that your vote actually matters. Hell, there was some clown on this site bragging about how they could vote third party because Biden wouldn't win their state no matter what, and it turned out to be Georgia.
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,206
Probably a fair number too who were motivated by Biden's win. Prior to the election it was very easy to categorize Georgia as a red state that had zero chance of turning blue, thus leading to minimal enthusiasm or feeling that your vote actually matters. Hell, there was some clown on this site bragging about how they could vote third party because Biden wouldn't win their state no matter what, and it turned out to be Georgia.
Yup, another good point there and I remember that guy.
 

daschysta

Member
Mar 24, 2019
899
Don't underestimate how many people perrenially sit out in red or blue states on both sides because "there is no point". Biden's victory can motivate these voters.
 

Culex

Member
Oct 29, 2017
6,900
I'm fully expecting that if Democrats pick up BOTH seats, Trump is going to do something even more outlandish...if that's even possible!
 

julian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,869
Don't underestimate how many people perrenially sit out in red or blue states on both sides because "there is no point". Biden's victory can motivate these voters.
Yeah, it's why I find the whole "he won by 7 million talk" a bit annoying. We honestly have no idea how big the gap could be if it were a popular vote. Lots of people both red and blue sit out every election. Could be Biden would win by 15 million, could be 5.
 

Mandos

Member
Nov 27, 2017
31,274
Don't underestimate how many people perrenially sit out in red or blue states on both sides because "there is no point". Biden's victory can motivate these voters.
We have evidence the Dem vote has grown since the general election. Meanwhile trump is off the ballot and actively suppressing voters
I'm fully expecting that if Democrats pick up BOTH seats, Trump is going to do something even more outlandish...if that's even possible!
Trump wants them to list now to prove the GOP are losers without his support. Expect him to actually attack them tonight
 
Oct 27, 2017
10,660
We keep on talking about nails in the coffin for the GOP, and every time they come back stronger than ever. Trump in 2016 was supposed to be the end of the GOP, Biden in 2020 was going to be the end of the GOP, and now a lack of stimulus money is going to be the end of the GOP.

Nothing will end the GOP, as long as stupid racist people continue to be stupid and racist.
I've been saying it for years, the republican base is simply a white supremacist base. They're never going to change. Trump is their god, because he made them feel like they could crawl out of their shitholes and be themselves. So as long as there's the prospect of white supremacy under republican leadership, they're going to reliably vote republican. There's no 'depressing' the base. There's no 'destruction' of the republican party on the horizon. It just took off the hood, and there was another hood underneath.
 

Slash

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Sep 12, 2018
9,859
I think Warnock definitely has this in the bag. I'm so hopeful for Ossoff as well, not only because we need both seats but because I think he'd also be a great senator for GA alongside Warnock, but we shall see.

They're campaigning as a team, so I can't imagine that the difference would be too big. If it's really close and Warnock wins by 0.3% or so, then I can see a split result, but any other results and I think they'll either win together or lose together.
 
Oct 29, 2017
13,470
They're campaigning as a team, so I can't imagine that the difference would be too big. If it's really close and Warnock wins by 0.3% or so, then I can see a split result, but any other results and I think they'll either win together or lose together.

Yeah, I am feeling pretty optimistic. Let's start 2021 off on a good note!

BWoog and RBH one more day and the phone calls and commercials will stop.

I feel like we've been enduring the unskippable youtube ads for YEARS at this point lol
 

boxter432

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
9,395
They're campaigning as a team, so I can't imagine that the difference would be too big. If it's really close and Warnock wins by 0.3% or so, then I can see a split result, but any other results and I think they'll either win together or lose together.
ah so you are saying both could win, lose, or split. good call ;)
 

djplaeskool

Member
Oct 26, 2017
19,824

Sho_Nuff82

Member
Nov 14, 2017
18,513
HuffPost said:
A key factor, according to Democratic operatives, is anger over the GOP's vociferous attacks on Warnock, the senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, the onetime pulpit of Martin Luther King Jr. Loeffler and Republican outside groups have engaged in repeated over-the-top and false slams on Warnock, taking his sermons out of context, labeling him a Marxist and suggesting he covered up child abuse.

"The attack ads, the portrayal of Rev. Warnock using historically racist tropes in the ads is insulting," said Gwen Mills, the secretary-treasurer of the labor union Unite Here, which is contributing to a major field organizing program in the state. "But it's also invigorating in the sense that people aren't going to stand for this. We've heard it a lot."

Why is there only backlash against the attacks on Warnock's faith from black Georgians? You'd expect all these ideologically consistent independents to kick up just as much of a fuss as when people were discussing Barrett's Catholic leanings.

"It's been the rural and suburban counties that have really been leading the way in increasing Black turnout," said Tom Bonier, CEO of the Democratic data firm TargetSmart, noting higher turnout both in rural counties in the state's so-called Black Belt and in cities like Columbus, Augusta and Macon.
In particular, Democrats have targeted Savannah. Harris campaigned there with Warnock and Ossoff on Sunday, and Warnock, a native of the city, has released a television ad highlighting his roots

Pay attention, southern Democrats. Black people do not only live in cities.
 
Oct 29, 2017
13,470
Any streaming with ads is unwatchable. The black voting PACs have great ads but not 15 times during one show.

Right lol
Both me and my wife have taken to responding to the ads as they come up with like "yeah, hey Jon. Hey Raph. We voted for ya, can we please just watch our show?" Like ya said, great ads. Definitely voted for dem bois. But DAMN are the ads plentiful.
 

Shoreu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,010
Almost everyone I know has voted early.

The message is really out there, and people are moving.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,893
I just signed up through Vote Save America to call Georgia voters via Zoom later today.

It's my first time doing digital activism like this! I'm extremely skeptical that a random phone call from a stranger like me will convince any undecideds to vote tomorrow, but I'm at least trying.

Anyone here who can share experiences of what cold calling voters is like?