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Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)
- Thread starter Poodlestrike
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I imagine they are all banding together against bernie to take delegates away from him. in hopes for some superdelegate fuckery. multiple candidates should have dropped out but they just wont for some reason.
it's still too early to tell though.
I said it's an incredible long shot and it was what the campaign was saying, not me.
This is what I've been saying for a long time. Things happen in campaigns. Something could happen to Sanders, whether it's a scandal, release, or health issues. Having Warren there as a safety valve is good.
Also she's incredibly progressive and driven to good policy but attracts some more moderate voters which means come convention time she can throw her support, support that may otherwise go to Pete or someone if she was out, toward Sanders or a policy concession/platform change that we all would probably like.
Plus she wants to eviscerate Bloomberg so it's good to have her stay in debates. After the last one why would you want her out?
It is a matter of what will actually stick, which was the issue in 2008 against Obama. Everything before Reverend Wright was a dud. Remember Tony Rezko? Bill Ayers? "Chicago Politics"? I do, virtually no one else does though. The stuff about his wife has come up before, it just never gained traction which is a good sign.
Mind you, after Nevada I'm caring less and less if Warren stays in. At this point she's pretty much a nonfactor, her presence in the race is not really going to matter in the long run if she keeps notching a bunch of fourth place finishes.
EDIT: At this point my question is what exactly she think she gets out of continuing to run. If she ends up finishing fourth or fifth in total delegates she's not going to be selected at a brokered convention, and I don't know what policy concessions she'd want to or even be able to demand.
EDIT: At this point my question is what exactly she think she gets out of continuing to run. If she ends up finishing fourth or fifth in total delegates she's not going to be selected at a brokered convention, and I don't know what policy concessions she'd want to or even be able to demand.
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Definitely agree.
Even though I do believe Bernie is in the lead because of his character and policies, so much of this process seems like luck of whether you are ebbing or flowing at just the right moment. There is some not too alternate universe where Warren is in the lead.
as a Bernie fan it's been incredible to see him hitting all the right moments consistently over the past few months, on top of clearly making wise decisions in the campaign.
He's on the threshold of not being statewide viable, so he's going to fight hard to get some national delegates.
Yeah at this point she's just sapping support from Sanders. She's trying to walk that line of being Bernie's lane while trying to come off as the more moderate candidate. I wish she'd drop out before SC, I think it'd boost Bernie's chances. Her campaign is dead in the water.
Yeah, irregularities like aces being considered low at the last second.
Just let it go Pete. You're only appealing to white people no matter how many Nigerian men are obsessed with your campaign advisers.
I'm not sure about her being a non-factor, the polling numbers we're seeing nowadays often have a few candidates at or near the 15% threshold. There could well be states where Biden or Buttigieg would be below 15% if Warren stayed in, but would be above 15% if she pulled out.
She may be preparing for a 2024 run, or perhaps 2028. Staying in the race increases her profile, helps her build her ground game in later states, and gives her more experience running a contested primary. That could all be useful in future. There's no realistic scenario where her 2020 campaign wins, but I guess it's also possible that she's hoping one of the unrealistic scenarios happens. Right now I see no harm in her staying in for as long as she can afford to do so.
i can tell you I have a couple friends, one a moderate democrat leaning person in the northeast and another repub moderate who hates trump and they both strongly dislike Warrens personality for whatever reason i cant figure out.
People often hate smart, over-qualified women for some reason.
Why would his campaign not do that if it meant he could pull cleaner into second place? The amorphus moderate blob has to be whittled down at some point, lol. Bernie is going better than could be dreamed almost at this point. If I were a big Bernie guy I wouldn't be paying it much heed.
I'm gonna vote for sanders even though I would slightly prefer warren. Would love if she was vp, but don't see how she has a shot at this point.
I wonder if there's a way for her to give Bernie her delegates in exchange for vp? Maybe why she's staying in?
Will be certainly interesting to see the VP discussion
Nobody is allowed to try to win other than Bernie.
Also I cant believe the Warren is a moderate posts. Well I guess I can actually.
Bernie's VP pick would be way more important than most. No idea what route he goes though
Bernie supporters call THEMSELVES moderates generally because they beleive the policies he is for is widely popular, so this whole moderate vs progressive thing is meh.
Edit: I should say, they "could" call themselves moderate too.
Edit: I should say, they "could" call themselves moderate too.
Yea but Bernie needs to do more to distance himself from Russia and people saying mean things on Twitter.
It's a mugs game; he can never say or do enough. It's good that he seems to be basically ignoring stuff like that.
If Bloomberg was up for re-election in '24 and he thought being 'tough' on immigration would help him, he'd absolutely be as bad or worse than Trump.
My wife isn't big into politics and she dislikes Warren. She says she doesn't come off as being authentic and the Native American thing was a huge turn off. Frankly I'm still surprised she got such a pass on that Native American thing. Like you can't just claim Native identity because your family told you stories.
Edit: I'll also add that it seems like a lot of warrens motivations stem from political calculation rather than personal conviction. The Native American thing is one example. Letting the "Bernie said a woman couldnt beat trump!" story blow up while also claiming that it's not a big deal and doesn't need to be discussed. Saying that campaigns shouldn't be financed by Super PACs. Refusing to tax the middle class to pay for Medicare For All when it would save them money. Just to name a few.
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Looking into some old footage of Birdie Sanders, that man, if nothing else, has been persistent about his messaging w/o fail and obstacles. And now, after around 30 something years, it feels like this may be, just may be, his time.
Not going to lie - that was a pretty impressive win by Bernie last night. Starting to get onboard with the idea of him as the nominee even if I'm skeptical of his chances. If he wins SC then it's definitely over and we all need to get behind him.
I've heard this sentiment from various folks in my social circle as well. FWIW I've always liked Warren's demeanor and personality. She reminds me of every school teacher I had growing up who actually gave a shit about me.
Can this get threadmarked?
Here's a site to keep in your bookmarks/favorites to look at after each state's primary/caucus because it keeps track of who is currently leading in delegates.
For Democrats, a Democratic candidate needs 1,991 total delegates to win party nomination, as of February 23rd, the AP reports that Bernie Sanders is leading in delegates with 31 delegates, he needs a total of 1,960 delegates currently to win:
Here's a site to keep in your bookmarks/favorites to look at after each state's primary/caucus because it keeps track of who is currently leading in delegates.
For Democrats, a Democratic candidate needs 1,991 total delegates to win party nomination, as of February 23rd, the AP reports that Bernie Sanders is leading in delegates with 31 delegates, he needs a total of 1,960 delegates currently to win:
The vast majority of people base their identity off of things their parents told them. Religion, sports, hobbies, politics, ideology, etc. Not that it excuses Warren but its common to think the stories your family tells are true. Most people don't go fact-digging on their own histories.
It shouldn't take you that long to figure out.
I'd guess they also disliked Hillary for inexplicable reasons.
The Native American stuff felt like one of those taboo topics you aren't allowed to bring up during the primaries because it would be too damaging to her brand if she were to end up as the nominee. It's also not the type of thing that Dems like to bring up anyway, they at least have the veneer of focusing on policy.
It's also why I feel all the 'Bernie is unvetted' concern trolling is especially ironic coming from Warren's camp, because while Dems might ignore it, you KNOW Trump would hammer her on it day in day out. I actually think Bloomberg might be the one to finally break the seal on that line of attack after she massacred him in the last debate.
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Yeah I think if you strip away the political stuff she has a great personality. But when it comes to politics I think she struggles to exude the same level of authenticity that you see with Sanders.
That's great, but I need a report from a hipster coffee shop before I can take it seriously.
This is a parody tweet of that "hipster coffee shop" that alt-right shithead whose name I forget likes to do, right?
for anyone who's old enough. were people sure that obama was gonna beat mccain? was there any anxiety about running him? been talking to some of my older AA relatives about why people's uncertainty about whether bernie can beat trump is an asset
Hell no people were nowhere near sure Obama was going to beat McCain.
There absolutely was anxiety about whether Obama would be able to make it against Clinton much less McCain. My folks were worried the man would be assassinated before getting into office.
I know plenty of democrats who dislike Warren bc of her personality too. It isn't rocket science on why they dislike her unfortunately.
for comparison sake, its fair to say that plenty of people were pretty confident clinton would destroy trump, right?
I'm making the case that everyone's worry that Sanders cant do it (even though they'll all vote for him in the general) is good. You dont want someone who everyone feels sure will win in the event that that reduces turnout
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