Though a bit surprised you dont agree with the other points - obviously popularity and huge install base could have impact on XC DE, even more so than the install base when XC2 launched. There were less than 10M units sold at the time of XC2 release, now more than 50M
Yes, and those forty million extra units were all free to buy XBC2 if they were interested in the series. It's not disappeared from existence in the interim. A simpler presumption is that the series reach is just actually not very much bigger than the couple million XBC2 has probably sold now, and a remake of an earlier game is about the least likely thing in the world to change that, short of just dumping the rom at a higher resolution.
You're confusing NA's poor treatment of XBC1 with the rest of the world. Everywhere else it got as big of a push as you'd actually expect for a game of its reach, and had plenty of chance to meet this vague definition of succeed.XC has never been put in a situation to succeed before, Wii release for obvious reasons, 3DS release locked to New 3DS and the Wii U digital release.. well it was on the flippin Wii U.
Smash influence is ofc a joker, it might or might not - it's definately not a negative and in no way did it affect XC2 at least.
Right, so your argument is that Smash (1) can provide a noticeable effect for xenoblade but also (2) cannot have provided any effect at all either of the two new games in the series released after xenoblade was added to smash. Well, that's a massive logic jump I can't follow.
Even if XBCDE is a massive success, that'll also translate in to a bunch of people going out and buying the sequel that's also on the same platform already, so it'll still end up behind the launch year game that had a year of updates, is a new title, and had plenty of head start.