With less than a month left, let's place our bets: will Stadia be a success, or will it fail?

[Lant_War]

Stadia is likely one of the biggest events of the generation, as Google is finally trying to get into the Games Industry with their new streaming service that could potentially change gaming forever. There's been a lots of doubts regarding if the service will thrive, and admittedly Google hasn't done the best job at calming down the fire but there's still a lot of money involved in the project. To recap, Stadia:

- Isn't a suscription. While at launch games will need the Stadia Pro subscription, next year it'll become its own platform.
- Is launching on limited territories. Only 14 countries will be able to play it
- Has exclusive games in development, with deals being worked on.
- Has Google's backing, for better or/and for worse.

I personally think it'll fail. It's too early for something like this when unlimited data caps aren't the standard, and where only a few places have really good internet. Maybe they should've waited for 5G before launching.

 

[Dest]

hard fail

 

[Chivalry]

A decent surge of interest at launch, a hard crash soon after.

 

[MrTired]

OP you need to define success and failure before people can vote.

 

[Deleted member 2254]

Can't see it generating enough interest at launch. If they play their cards well it could become a success later on, but I don't really see that either.

 

[sambills]

fail but itll have a really weird dedicated fan base like alita battle angel

 

[Hippopuncher12]

I think it will come out of the gates with some interest but it will decline rapidly.

 

[furfoot]

I want it to succeed, but it will fail.

 

[Rosebud]

It won't be a smash hit or a big flop. It will just... be there.

 

[Patitoloco]

I think the first iteration will fail or will have a lukewarm reception, sadly. But in the future, it will work. They just need the suscription, and more compatibility with devices.

Having it only on Pixels for portable devices is extremely dumb.

 

[Lant_War]

OP you need to define success and failure before people can vote.

Click to shrink...

Success = The service lives, new games are released at a healthy rate and the platform has a strong userbase.

Failure = Low third party support, no people using it, getting closed after a few years, etc.

 

[adz2ka]

It will be a success eventually but it will be a slow and long journey.
First year will be water treading, second year will be establishing ground, third year we'll see quality exclusive titles.

 

[cowbanana]

I think it will fail massively. If they had somehow managed to make "the Netflix of gaming" it might have had a chance, but selling the games individually at full price will make it ultra bomb.

 

[shimon]

Fail.

 

[Deleted member 10726]

Bomba at launch, might get salvaged later. Right now it looks like the next Google+, but they might be able to turn it around if they care enough.

 

[Lady Gaia]

I agree that failure and success aren't as easily defined as I'd like for a vote - but I'm still betting that it will be deemed disappointing and fall far short of making a significant dent in the gaming market. It may still capture a small, devoted market that makes it worth maintaining and improving toward a day when it would be a more realistic alternative to owning hardware - but I'm not betting on it.

 

[Deleted member 426]

It's definitely not going to be a success this year. Next year is when we'll Google push it for the proper launch. Will it succeed then? Not sure. At the moment there's not a lot going for it from my point of view. I'll wait to see the games.

 

[modiz]

It will increase slowly, but the momentum will be stopped once next gen consoles come out.

 

[Bleu]

it will have a moderate base of users that any newcomers in the console-like space would consider a decent achievement, but not google, they will see it as a failure.
my bet is they either kill the thing or completely revamp it with a better model within 2 years.

 

[kadotsu]

Stadia will fail. Google will however at one point launch a service that will be close to Apple Arcade that provides you with a Netflix like model for high-ish budget games that have lower latency demands. That one could succeed.

 

[Window]

Depends how and within what period you're measuring success.

 

[SharpX68K]

Will fail hard.

It won't be too many years before we will be saying "remember Stadia?"

Remember WebTV in the 90s?

It wasn't so much cloud based, there was a thin box to hook up to your TV, but you did not need a computer to go online and surf the web. The web was now going to be for everyone. In your living room. Simple, inexpensive and revolutionary.

Obviously there more direct comparisons with OnLive and Ouya.

 

[T002 Tyrant]

Success because of the Era bubble.

 

[Nostremitus]

I think it'll do fine. Especially once the free tier goes live and there are links to directly start playing at the end of youtube trailers.

 

[WestEgg]

I'll say a moderate success, but it will take a revamp of the current ISP system in the US to actually help it gain traction vs the consoles.

 

[mute]

The tech will be nice but as a business it will fail.

If they change the business model it would help a lot.

 

[Linus815]

i have no faith in google to keep this around for more than a few years.

 

[Tater]

It'll have a mediocre launch, and will gain some ground until the new set of consoles launch at the end of 2020. At that point, it will be completely lost in the shuffle, only to be shuttered a couple of years later.

 

[theme park joe]

What about middle where the first party stuff dries up but third party remains fine. No major updates.

 

[rochellepaws]

It'll perform poorly at launch but succeed at full release. Especially when expensive next gen systems arrive and people realise they can play the same game streamed without dropping ~500 on new hardware.

 

[FIREKNIGHT2029]

Dead on Arrival.

 

[oni-link]

That poll is savage

 

[I KILL PXLS]

This Founder's/beta period is going to be rough, but I imagine it will find it's footing by this time next year and will be doing fine within two when 1st party Stadia games actually start hitting and the library is more fleshed out.

 

[Lumination]

I'm not a hater on cloud gaming, just know it's not for me. But the pricing model of buying a $60 game you don't own and don't know will survive Google may not fly. Every casual under the sun just assumes this will be priced like Netflix, and it will be a harsh difference to swallow.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Its target audience doesnt exist.

 

[LordBaztion]

Will be a success in the long run if Google doesn't drop the ball early on.

 

[Cactuar]

What is the barometer for fail? I think they have the money to stick with it if they see potential, but I don't see it being a hit right out of the gate by any means.

 

[Falchion]

I think it'll hang around not doing too much for at least a few years.

 

[tiebreaker]

People won't talk about this anymore when next gen hits.

 

[Jimnymebob]

Fail.
I can't see it being supported on the long run.

I also seek don't know who the hell the target audience is supposed to be, other than gamers who want to try it for novelty/curiosities sake.

 

[defaltoption]

Stadia is dead on arrival and completely gone in 5 years or less

Edit: the only way this survives is with a complete pricing model change, something akin to annual sub or monthly sub for games. Gamers buy games but gamers already have a preferred system to play on. How do you break a customers loyalty, pricing. Let's not forget that if you want good stadia you still have to pay a monthly fee on top of buying the games.

 

[Damn Silly]

It might do well in some places, but it'll fail in America so Google will shutter it.

 

[valdimar]

I don't think it will be a breakout success at launch, but if Google manage to stick with it longer than they typically have with new services lately, they might succeed in the long run.

 

[Deleted member 21709]

Yes, let's pay full MSRP for games I can only play via Google's service.

 

[plagiarize]

Until we know how well it works, I don't feel comfortable predicting. Buying a game to stream is great if it works seamlessly and works well on all types of screens, but frankly I don't believe the major technological challenges with that are close to solved yet, and won't be for a while.

 

[Deleted member 2620]

going by VR discussions on this forum, it'll perform worse than the iphone so it'll be a failure

(it'll have an unappealing launch but will probably stick around and be deemed worthy of keeping alive by Google)

 

[Deleted member 50454]

It's going to be a complete whatever.

 

[808s & Villainy]

Well you haven't defined what is considered a success sooo

 

[Berordn]

I voted fail because it's definitely not going to be a roaring success out of the gates, but I don't necessarily think it's going to die off overnight. It's going to exist in its own little bubble for a few years until they get it integrated into other services, like Youtube letting you start a demo immediately after watching an ad.

 

[LumberPanda]

It'll fail the same way Netflix failed. Blockbuster knew what they were doing.

... It'll be a success when the base version comes out.