I know a lot is still up in the air right now but looking ahead I had a few questions regarding the state of the Democratic Party.
It was this close, it doesn't seem like it should have been. Given the imbalances in American democracy favoring rural states, especially in the Senate, the fight for Democrats is getting harder. Further, the Republicans seem unlikely to change tactics, they certainly didn't suffer in the House or the Senate for the last two years of gridlock. After four years of scandal Trump came out surprisingly well despite a probable loss, Trumpism and obstructionism seem likely to stick around. Republicans seem to have the advantage even when they are vocally proud of preventing progress on any major issue so it leaves one big question:
Where does the Democratic Party go from here? How do they legislate and how do they win?
- First: With the narrow margins on the House what can we expect for the next two years of legislating? An awful lot of Democrats narrow 2018 victories turning back around and flipping red. With new maps coming in two years, drawn in part by heavily Republican-controlled legislators, will the House flip in 2022? What then?
- Second: What is the play for the Senate actually both right now and in two years?
- 2a. Right now, NC seems out of reach for Cunningham given the margins on the remaining ballots. AK is likely completely out of reach for Gross. That leaves Georgia, can Democrats actually win two runoff races? It seems unlikely given how thoroughly trounced Democrats got in Maine, NC, Montana, Iowa, etc.
- 2b. I saw someone suggest Biden just appoint a Republican senator from a Dem governor state as an ambassador and see how it goes. Would he ever do that? Is that an actual strategy that would work?
- 2c. If they don't take the Senate this year by that narrow 50-50 margin do they actually have a shot in 2022? With government gridlock over the next two years, it seems that systemic problems maintain, Republicans blame Biden and the Democrats, and then voters show up in response to the messaging to win the house and hold the Senate. How do Democrats avoid this fate?
- Third: Despite a probable Biden win, it seems as though the Democratic Party's agenda is slipping away from them. Without the Senate, they can't get much work done on big issues like judicial or health care reform let alone climate action. If Democrats can't prove capable now then why in 2024 would voters want to elect, assuming he does not run another term, Biden's hand-picked successor?
It was this close, it doesn't seem like it should have been. Given the imbalances in American democracy favoring rural states, especially in the Senate, the fight for Democrats is getting harder. Further, the Republicans seem unlikely to change tactics, they certainly didn't suffer in the House or the Senate for the last two years of gridlock. After four years of scandal Trump came out surprisingly well despite a probable loss, Trumpism and obstructionism seem likely to stick around. Republicans seem to have the advantage even when they are vocally proud of preventing progress on any major issue so it leaves one big question:
Where does the Democratic Party go from here? How do they legislate and how do they win?