Do you think there's any chance that we can trick them all into going to Mars with Elon? The appeal of knowing it will be a white christian nationalist ethnoplanet may not be enough.
US PoliEra 2023 |OT 2| Tapping The Sign
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View: https://x.com/Acyn/status/1737525888042897540?s=20
How many abortions have you had this week, Era?
View: https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1737523615141106078?s=46&t=q8xEhzK9saAgepqotan8qQ
I appreciate Dark Brandon moments.
If Jan 6th wasn't so fucking cold in New England, this would be My American Dream.
And Trump got over 70 million votes. I fail to see the point in this?
"Why can't the Democrats just get over our attempt to overthrow the gov't and move on?" 🤷🏿♂️
At least for me, I ignore all polls now because it's too early and polling now is fundamentally broken. When was the last time anyone you know answered a call from a number they don't know?
The point is the more things change the more things stay the same. Theres that 30-40% of crazy in every electorate and has been forever.
Now CA is gonna try to pull a CO and attempt to remove Trump from the primary ballot.
Wonder how quickly they can do it, mail ballots go out in like, a little over a month.
Also, Quinnipiac out with a new National Poll
Haley Ties DeSantis For First Time In GOP Primary, While Trump Still Dominates, With Biggest Lead To Date, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Voter Support For U.S. Military Aid To Israel Dips | Quinnipiac University Poll
"DeSantis continues his yearlong slide. Haley gains momentum. The battle for second place heats up, but it's unlikely it will send a holiday chill through MAGA world," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
poll.qu.edu
Biden 47
Trump 46
Trump was up 48-46 last month. In other words, things haven't moved much according to Quinnipiac.
Biden looks kinda okay with young voters in this poll:
18-34:
Biden 54
Trump 36
Things get funkier with Kennedy:
18-34:
Biden 36
Trump 21
Kennedy Jr. 40
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Trump beating Whitmer and Newsom but tying with Biden is another narrative buster.
I know, I know, it's meaningless. But in the other way this time!
I know, I know, it's meaningless. But in the other way this time!
I share the wisdom of my father and saying the election is basically a 50-50 split in terms of probability. Enough of this poll talk lol. Both candidates are absurdly unpopular so it's really hard to gauge it. Biden should have been a one term President like he promised though.
Not publicly. Privately there were reports that he signaled to advisors he would not run in 2024. Of course, that was back in 2019 so things obviously changed a lot in five years. Still, I think it would have been prudent if he committed to a single term and then allowed a competitive Democratic primary in 2023.
Why would anyone think that a "competitive primary" in which Harris, Whitmer, Pritzker, Newsom, etc. spent tens of billions attacking each other for a year would have resulted in a stronger candidate?
Well for one it would reduce the age concerns surrounding Biden, which is the main reason his polls are underwater in addition to people perceiving him as incompetent due to an uncooperative Congress (which granted isn't his fault) and the catastrophic war in Gaza (which he does bear responsibility for). Having a fresh face in the national stage could improve situation and present a new stage in the Democratic party, which is something that many people seem to want. A rematch between Trump and Biden just isn't appetizing to many voters. Primaries involve lots of money spent and attacking but that's just politics.
Even if he's somehow disqualified, MAGAworld would revolt and still vote for him. Even if he dies on live TV during a debate or rally, they'll deny it happened and still vote for him. The cult is baked in no matter what. It'll take decades of deprogramming to ever begin to get them back if it's at all possible.
He ran in 2020 after sitting out 2016 because of Trump's support of white nationalism. Plus at the time Jan 6 hadn't happened. He also said recently he wouldn't be running in 2024 if Trump wasn't and I don't think in 2019 he could've predicted that the cult would still be this strong. I don't see an inconsistency.
The main reason he's underwater is (people's perception of) the economy. It always will be. Changing the candidate isn't going to change that.
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I know this is Israel related but it's more centered on American politics so it fits here. Pretty damn notable to see some intraparty pressure, especially from a more moderate wing.
View: https://twitter.com/RepHoulahan/status/1737232995331764238?t=3_9XX9l1hE-J1hwxCBqoHw&s=19
View: https://twitter.com/RepHoulahan/status/1737232995331764238?t=3_9XX9l1hE-J1hwxCBqoHw&s=19
Just this last page was a poll showing Trump beating Whitmer and Kamala. This idea that a democrat who would then be defined to the populace would do better than Biden is wish casting. Losing incumbency advantage is an extremely dumb idea.
And yet there are a myriad of other polls that show the opposite? Regardless, I'm of the opinion that Biden would be best suited as a one-term President, even with Trump on the ballot. I believe we need a stronger candidate than him right now.
That's true. But the fact that polls are not consistently showing that which means at this moment, people are not wanting a Biden replacement even with his horrid approval ratings.
Historically, I cannot think of a time when a one-term president did not run for a second term and someone from his party won the following election. It has certainly never happened in modern times.
It's true that it would be a historic first, and I don't deny the desire to keep it safe, but there is ample evidence suggesting that people don't want another rematch between Biden and Trump. In addition to Biden being very unpopular at the moment, I feel like running an incumbent again would pose its own set of risks.
I agree that people would love Generic D until they actually become known the the public lol. But I would not want to bet democracy on a belief that the incumbency advantage is weaker than the possible strengths another candidate would have.
6 months from now, people will be remembering just how horrible hearing a new Trump story every day was, and (in my opinion) prefer "Sleepy Joe" to that.
Well since you brought up feelings, I feel like holding a rematch election in the context of good and improving economic conditions would likely yield the same outcome as last time we ran it.
I wouldn't make it contingent on economics (that's ripe opportunity for fascists to take advantage of), but rather suitability and capability for office, in addition to capability as an opponent to fascism.
Certainly possible. Maybe even probable.
I'm gonna wait until the primaries are over, at the very least, before proclaiming the end of the Republic or an invigorating Biden win and Dem annihilation of MAGA.
Either seem possible right now, and it's just not worth thinking about this far out.
Perhaps because the Midwest are more diverse. Like I know there are Arab Americans have voiced their intent to withhold their votes for Biden over his Israel policy so I wonder if that plays a factor?
It certainly will, and it is why Michigan can't be counted on this time around. Lots of work to be done there in the next year.
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The most interesting part of this for me is large minorities if Haley supporters claiming they'd vote for Biden against Trump
View: https://www.threads.net/@kevincate/post/C1F4U6Uv6dT/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==
Education is probably an influencing factor as well while NH is a purple to blue state, roughly the same politically as midwestern states like MI, WI, and MN, it has significantly higher education levels, especially compared to MI and WI (MN is relatively close to northeastern states)
Which states are the most educated?
Of the top ten most educated states, nine are located on the east coast.
usafacts.org
I'm a lurker but I pay attention to everything you write, I've learned quite a bit from your posts
Glad you're back btw
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Lurker here, I read everything you're putting out and it keeps me sane. Thanks for what you do and welcome back.
McConnell's approval rating sinks to 6 percent
He was already well underwater with his constituency even before he won reelection. That's one of the reasons I put zero stock in what someone's approval ratings have to do with their electability, especially when talking about incumbency. It just doesn't translate to real world effects. If it ever did have an effect, hyperpolarization of the electorate buried it.
View: https://x.com/C_Sommerfeldt/status/1737593312759218397?s=20
View: https://x.com/rpyers/status/1737612178038133111?s=20
I don't understand how the party of rich freaks is running out of money?
Is this why they keep running rich carpetbaggers? Like I get they still have war chest to rely on, so they're not totally broke, but still.
I honestly think Biden would have continued to lose support with Arab voters either way tbh. If Dems go hard on Abortion, there will definitely be further erosion because of that alone, his stance on Israel will just make it worse. Places like Dearborn already swung 41 points towards Republicans in the Michigan governor race alone from 2018 to 2022, and I'd bet things will swing even more than that from 2020 to 2024. Some of those voters will not come back.
But I don't think swings in communities like these are catastrophic for Biden in Michigan yet. I think places that continue to zoom left like Oakland and Kent counties can offset some of those losses other places. Trump continuing to say stupid stuff like he's been doing lately will probably just keep those counties on track to swing left even more. That doesn't mean Biden should ignore Arab voters, just that the campaign needs to have an insurance policy of some kind in case the losses are like Starr County, TX-like swings.
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There is no definitive evidence that Biden is losing support in one geographic area compared to any other and I find it amusing how in two national polls in the last two days Whitmer is doing WORSE versus Trump than Biden.
And Whitmer won Michigan by 11% as we all remember.
Also you alluded to with Dearborn. Well it's not an accident that the main people behind the Abandon Biden "group" who've had a few articles written about their dumb press conferences/events over the last couple months were discovered to have been working with Michael Flynn and other Trump people prior to 10/07. Due to LGBT issues basically.
I've been back and forth whether or not I think all the hand wringing about GOP finances was being overblown by partisan bias, but goddamn this is catastrophic
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