Virginia will be complete at the end of next year when the state senate and house flip at last. I believe they both only need two seats each to turn blue.
US PoliERA 2018 |OT6| An Unmitigated Disaster
- Thread starter Midnight Jon
- Start date
- OT
- Status
NC GOP will ensure that doesn't happen for another decade. The shit they're pulling there is stunning. Hungary is more democratic.
House may not flip till after redistricting in 2020. Its currently ridiculously gerrymandered.
From what I've read so far, it is good. I've found the shift in Virginia interesting and have hoped Democrats might replicate elsewhere, but the article makes it sound like it has more to do with demographics than what the party there has done. It was either Harry Enten or Dave Wasserman who said before on Twitter that many moderate Republicans there started voting straight Democrat.
It came very close last year, literally a coin flip away from a tie.
Granted, that was with wave margins, but who's to say that can't be replicated in 2019? Trump will (probably) still be president.
Speaking of 2019, I think it's very plausible that Democrats sweep the gubernatorial races that year. There's only three - Louisiana (Edwards from what I can tell is very popular and should be able to withstand the state's usual demographics), Mississippi (Jim Hood is running and he's the closest you'll ever get to Democrat Jesus in that state) and Kentucky (everyone hates Bevin and Andy Beshear, son of the former popular governor is running).
And speaking of Kentucky, I wonder as well if it's possible for the party to build itself up to its former strength there. Before Bevin was elected, Democrats held five of the six statewide elected offices and the majority in the State House - now they're down to just two of those offices, and obviously are in the minority. But Bevin has pissed off nearly everyone, Democrats had an absurd special election swing there (which granted, came about from some weird sex stuff - pedophilia? About the previous incumbent who ended up committing suicide when everything came out, and his wife ran to replace him) and the state in general has always had this streak of blue dog governance that only broke in 2015-2016.
Last edited:
Going by 2016 results, Arlington County went 77% for Clinton. If you include all the individual cities that are only separate in Virginia, Charlottesville City went 80% for Clinton.
With the new maps in North Carolina it's very possible Cooper gets Dem majorities next year. At the very least, his veto will actually mean something.
I would say AZ, NC and MI are the only Trump states where it's feasible we win a trifecta this year. Wisconsin is possible in theory (that Democratic justice won a majority of the Assembly districts), but I'm not too sure.
It was a plus 9 Dem wave and they got a fucking tie. Think about that.
If its not Arlington I would be shocked. (Its the part of DC that was given back to VA.)
edit: missed that post, yup, as expected.
If the archive page is anything to go by, looks like they are busy as hell.
Virginia's blue shift is part demographics and part the GOP becoming anti-federal radicals since the Obama era. A lot of moderately conservative people whose livelihoods are threatened by the bomb-throwers in the Freedom Caucus, and that only accelerates with Trump who also goes after the Justice Department and the Intelligence Community, so many of the hordes of DoD people living in NoVA also fall out of love with the GOP.
I'd hesitate to say it will be a safe blue state even if it will be a likely blue state, because there's still a lot of the state that's straight neo-confederate (so GOP will have a high floor in the state for decades to come) and because you are getting a strong veteran and military-industrial presence that might come back home for state elections if the GOP gets less insane for a spell.
I'd hesitate to say it will be a safe blue state even if it will be a likely blue state, because there's still a lot of the state that's straight neo-confederate (so GOP will have a high floor in the state for decades to come) and because you are getting a strong veteran and military-industrial presence that might come back home for state elections if the GOP gets less insane for a spell.
What American has ever said to themselves, "Gee, Russia giving us Moscow would be swell!"
Like, how does that thought even enter your mind?
I feel like Gowdy knows Trump won't read anything, so he says reasonable stuff in print, but when he gets in front of cameras he says insane stuff to appease him because that's when he'll hear him.
Im not 100% on that mostly cause I dont expect turnout to be as high, 2017 was a gigantic anomaly compositionally.
Well, now I'll consider him a failure if he doesn't return with Moscow. I have high expectations for my president~~~
Appropriately, getting to Moscow while failing to take Leningrad.
Just like Hitler.
Imagine what noted and perhaps excessive perfectionist Jobs would have said about the build quality of Teslas.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/13/politics/senate-key-race-virginia-solid-democratic
A look into the future Kaine/Stewart result in November
What was always dumb about this matchup is that while Virginia has plenty of the "heritage, not hate" stuff, the confederate monuments thing has always been playing to conservatives outside the state (the Charlottesville rally certainly wasn't filled with central Virginians). It was always going to be a losing ploy to kickstart your candidacy on that issue. McDonnell's Republican sweep of the state was a massive aberration from what's now a pretty clear trend line, and absent similar huge Republican waves I can't see them retaking the governorship any time soon.
Here you go, I read the article on lunch at work, didnt have it in my mobile browser history https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2018/07/30/corey-stewart-virginia-republicans-turning-crazy/
Just from looking on Zillow.
Jesus Christ, these houses are expensive af and aren't even that aesthetically pleasing.
Part of the problem is that even the most optimistic projections for Democrats only had them gaining like 8 seats and the state party had to spend money taking down cranks like Bob Marshall. This time every Democrat starts out with an incumbency bonus and we have a better idea of what races are susceptible to flipping in a wave environment - there are many more Northam districts than there were Clinton districts, one of them didn't even have a Democratic challenger iirc.
I don't think it'll be easy by any means but there's a lot more going for the Democrats in 2019 than there was in 2017.
"Was the referendum valid?"
"Da."
"What can you do, folks? They asked to be part of Rushah."
Yeah there's a reason people think it's the Dulles area if DC lands Amazon (it's expensive but there's a shit ton of open land to develop,.)
Someone must have called the police.
Computer programming while black.
Considering the per capita income and how affluent it is, this completely shocks me.
I thought all the rich upper middle class white people from DC would've built their 4-5 bedroom houses out of the wazoo.
Thy have. But right now there's lots and lots of townhouses and condos being built because people need denser housing.
The place was a GOP-leaning exurb forever but the advance/sprawl of the DC metro has rapidly turned it blue.
When you realize that all these hearings are just a show for the base and to get soundbites for FOX, it all makes sense.
What in the FUCK is he even blathering about
---
Also, personal anecdote. I was at lunch today with my aunt and uncle and my uncle brought up Stormy's arrest. My uncle was kind w/e about it, just brought it up, but my aunt called her a "beaut" and "white trash." I'm tired and drained as fuck from the new meds I'm on (thankfully short-term) so I just kept my mouth shut. Wish I gathered up some fucking energy anyway and got in it. My aunt doesn't even like Trump, but I guess this is what elderly Catholic women actually believe. Next time, I swear I will channel the energy of our Patron Saint of Anti-Bullshit, Autodidact...
It's so blatant. The guy just sent hackers to fuck with our election and Trump is acting like it never happened. I hope some intelligence agency in the world(besides Russia) has bugs in the building they are meeting in.
- Status