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Trump's internal polling also shows him down in Texas
- Thread starter infamous5445
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This news should make Trump's campaign waste time and money in Texas, Arizona, etc. Not Biden's.
Biden campaign needs to spend time in actual purple states.
Biden campaign needs to spend time in actual purple states.
Should be planting the seeds everywhere. Sure spend the most time in places like the mid-west/rust belt, and FL. But TX/AZ/GA need to continue to be worked on for the future too.
Arizona is an actual purple state with a very winnable senate seat, money should absolutely be spent there.
New Mexico was a fairly safe Blue state I think. Arizona was the toss up. Like these trends though.
Edit: Clinton won by 8% over Trump in 2016.
While Texas is might not vote Biden, it does scare the shit out of everyone, which means Republican money will not be used to expand, and instead, stay home. Popular Republican representatives and senators will have to stay home instead of campaigning nationwide. This happened to Democrats in 2010, and is a damn good thing. State races in swing states will get way less money on the Republican side, and you will see state legislatures flip.
However, I am still not optimistic until I see 3 Republican senators who are not retiring break with the White House. Once I see that, I know the whole thing is going to collapse.
However, I am still not optimistic until I see 3 Republican senators who are not retiring break with the White House. Once I see that, I know the whole thing is going to collapse.
I don't think Biden will win Texas. I mean, I'll be shocked and happy if he does, but I care more about the margin. I would like to see him get within 5 points. We have to keep pushing the margins and Texas will eventually go blue. Beto getting so close was also a big step in the right direction. But Texas is not going to decide the election one way or the other, a win there is just icing on the cake.
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if the numbers stay like this or get worse for trump, at what point do GOP start abandoning ship?Lots of state polls added to 538 today
Is it just me or do the people who say "I don't trust polling after 2016" both don't understand polling, and don't understand what happened in 2016?
both. it was within margin of error, and literally trump won the election with less than 200k votes. it was a razor thing margin.
Yeah I get confused when I see that because I could have sworn the polls in 2016 predicted Hillary would get the most votes, which she did (popular vote) and Trump may take key states, which he did.
So if I'm remembering that all correctly, the polls were never actually wrong really.
Y'all
Election day is 139 days from now
139 days ago was January 29. That was like three lifetimes ago.
It doesn't really matter what the polls look like right now.
Election day is 139 days from now
139 days ago was January 29. That was like three lifetimes ago.
It doesn't really matter what the polls look like right now.
Yeah. I'd like to celebrate at 8pn PST. not wait till midnight.
Sad thing about this whole thing is that we can only seem to win with moderate candidates. I wouldn't put out a highly progressive candidate out in the general for at least another decade.
As long as I don't fall asleep drunk and sad, it can take as long as it needs to.
It also ignores context and a lot of different dynamics at play. Biden is not Hillary. Trump in 2020 is not Trump in 2016 (remember people actually thinking he'd "pivot" and be more centrist after the nomination/election?). America in 2020 is not America in 2016.
wait what? Trump lost the popular election by almost 3m, he wont the electoral college election. unless you're talking about a specific state?
Oh wow I totally forgot about the whole pivot crap people were theorizing would happen. Says a lot right there. Really good points.
I believe he's referring to the Electoral College. The battleground states that Trump won, he won by a very close margin.
he lost by 3 million,
oh I see. I was thinking of something else.
Polling was broadly accurate across the board in 2018, with a few exceptions like Rasmussen who have a strong GOP lean, but Florida was definitely the most off since the majority even just before election had Gillum up over DeRacist and some over the margin of error predicted him winning which obviously didn't come to pass.
I'm doing my part in Florida. I actually signed up to vote by mail earlier this year before Trump started bashing that process. Now I almost feel especially proud to be voting by mail just as a fuck you to Trump/GOP.
In 2016, me and my friend were high fiving when it briefly looked like Trump was going to lose Texas.
why I encourage everyone to vote, no matter what pole's say.
Yeah, ok. I live in Texas, and yeah there's huge pockets of blue that can probably turn the tide, but they need to get out and vote. One thing we know for sure, is that the state is gerrymandered to hell and back and that red voters will walk through covid murder hornets to cast a vote.
Trump will still win the state, just like Beto got pounded by Cruz
Of course voting matters though, thats exactly what the polls are banking on. It goes without saying.
If Vegas bookies favored a team to win the Super Bowl, would you tell them "Well you still have to go out and play"?
The only thing people took from 2016 polls is "Hillary wins", so when Hillary didn't win they declared polls bullshit forever.
It's straight-up anti-intellectualism to see people reject even looking at numbers in favor of their gut instincts and cynicism, especially those trying to reverse-psychology themselves into keeping their voting enthusiasm high.
Apparently yes we have to, because if we don't the team's going to get drunk the night before and send in their benchwarmers.
It sucks that we apparently need despair, real or not, to drive people to vote.
No shenanigans going on, but in PA we just adopted more widespread voting by mail and results are taking a while to calculate. Like, our primary was 2 weeks ago and we're still counting the votes. So, uh, if we're an important state to decide this election, the results may take a while...
The thing that needs to happen is the suburbs need to flip, which is highly possible. And it double fucks the GOP because the gerrymandered congressional and legislature seats are thin, which means that if the suburbs flip hard, they could lose those as well. Which means the democrats would have a lot of influence on the redrawn seats in the 2021 session after the census this year.
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