NM hasn't gone red since 2004
Should be planting the seeds everywhere. Sure spend the most time in places like the mid-west/rust belt, and FL. But TX/AZ/GA need to continue to be worked on for the future too.This news should make Trump's campaign waste time and money in Texas, Arizona, etc. Not Biden's.
Biden campaign needs to spend time in actual purple states.
Arizona is an actual purple state with a very winnable senate seat, money should absolutely be spent there.This news should make Trump's campaign waste time and money in Texas, Arizona, etc. Not Biden's.
Biden campaign needs to spend time in actual purple states.
We've been burned before, I agree.I know it's silly but I still don't trust polling. I'll believe it when I see him lose.
if the numbers stay like this or get worse for trump, at what point do GOP start abandoning ship?
November 4.if the numbers stay like this or get worse for trump, at what point do GOP start abandoning ship?
from the electoral college? yes. we have
both. it was within margin of error, and literally trump won the election with less than 200k votes. it was a razor thing margin.Is it just me or do the people who say "I don't trust polling after 2016" both don't understand polling, and don't understand what happened in 2016?
Is it just me or do the people who say "I don't trust polling after 2016" both don't understand polling, and don't understand what happened in 2016?
Y'all
Election day is 139 days from now
139 days ago was January 29. That was like three lifetimes ago.
It doesn't really matter what the polls look like right now.
Let's just win Florida and have a nice and easy celebratory night, mmkay?
As long as I don't fall asleep drunk and sad, it can take as long as it needs to.Yeah. I'd like to celebrate at 8pn PST. not wait till midnight.
Yeah I get confused when I see that because I could have sworn the polls in 2016 predicted Hillary would get the most votes, which she did (popular vote) and Trump may take key states, which he did.
So if I'm remembering that all correctly, the polls were never actually wrong really.
wait what? Trump lost the popular election by almost 3m, he wont the electoral college election. unless you're talking about a specific state?both. it was within margin of error, and literally trump won the election with less than 200k votes. it was a razor thing margin.
It also ignores context and a lot of different dynamics at play. Biden is not Hillary. Trump in 2020 is not Trump in 2016 (remember people actually thinking he'd "pivot" and be more centrist after the nomination/election?). America in 2020 is not America in 2016.
wait what? Trump lost the popular election by almost 3m, he wont the electoral college election. unless you're talking about a specific state?
he lost by 3 million,wait what? Trump lost the popular election by almost 3m, he wont the electoral college election. unless you're talking about a specific state?
he lost by 3 million, 200 k decided the electoral math in MI, PA and WI.
oh I see. I was thinking of something else.I believe he's referring to the Electoral College. The battleground states that Trump won, he won by a very close margin.
*70khe lost by 3 million, 200 k decided the electoral math in MI, PA and WI.
Polling was broadly accurate across the board in 2018, with a few exceptions like Rasmussen who have a strong GOP lean, but Florida was definitely the most off since the majority even just before election had Gillum up over DeRacist and some over the margin of error predicted him winning which obviously didn't come to pass.How closely did the results in 2018 skew towards the polling leading up to it in Florida?
why I encourage everyone to vote, no matter what pole's say.
Yeah, ok. I live in Texas, and yeah there's huge pockets of blue that can probably turn the tide, but they need to get out and vote. One thing we know for sure, is that the state is gerrymandered to hell and back and that red voters will walk through covid murder hornets to cast a vote.
Trump will still win the state, just like Beto got pounded by Cruz
Is it just me or do the people who say "I don't trust polling after 2016" both don't understand polling, and don't understand what happened in 2016?
Of course voting matters though, thats exactly what the polls are banking on. It goes without saying.
If Vegas bookies favored a team to win the Super Bowl, would you tell them "Well you still have to go out and play"?
No shenanigans going on, but in PA we just adopted more widespread voting by mail and results are taking a while to calculate. Like, our primary was 2 weeks ago and we're still counting the votes. So, uh, if we're an important state to decide this election, the results may take a while...Let's just win Florida and have a nice and easy celebratory night, mmkay?
Yeah, ok. I live in Texas, and yeah there's huge pockets of blue that can probably turn the tide, but they need to get out and vote. One thing we know for sure, is that the state is gerrymandered to hell and back and that red voters will walk through covid murder hornets to cast a vote.
Trump will still win the state, just like Beto got pounded by Cruz