2008, which is my main frame of reference for a recovery after a big drop. The market may not return to the peak anytime soon, but 75% of the peak seems likely after everything calms down and we rebuild the lost jobs.
I know we are largely in the beginning phase of this societal/economic overhaul this virus is bringing about, but one thing should be made clear:
This current economic situation is wholly different & worse than the 2008 financial crisis.
In 07/08, yes, a lot of wealth & banks basically disappeared overnight, but the thing you have to understand is that the overwhelming majority of businesses remained open. Right now, the overwhelming majority of non-essential businesses in states are shut down, with no real idea on when things will re-open again. These are jobs and industries that are being put on hold or are facing existential risk (in the case of movie theaters or the hotel/tourism industry). Like, air travel didn't plummet the way it currently is back then.
We are just starting to get a notion on the short term effects this is having in terms of job loss and businesses closing down; it feels like years worth of developments on the economic side are happening daily. Expecting a near-peak resurgence right after a semi-permanent solution is found simply isn't a realistic outcome; it took 4 years to develop the wealth the market had and it went away in the matter of weeks.
And make no mistake, the market and its investors are doing the best they can to try and stabilize this thing, and they are losing. We've poured over a trillion into it and it still sunk. The moment we start getting real numbers on unemployment, or Q1 reports out of businesses, or the GDP starts rolling in from affected countries for the quarter, its going to sink even lower.