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Stock Market Watch |OT| I've stocked up on market watches, what now?

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Shoeless

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,008
deprecated said:
I'm like 95% certain this is actually going to happen and there's going to be severe social and economic pressure to get it as soon as you can. I also believe this has a 50%-60% chance of going poorly.
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Trump's not going to care about safe human trials. He'll fire the person that tries to ensure that. Then, if there are fatalities discovered with the vaccine, he'll fire the guy he put in charge that obeyed his demands. Then he'll blame Obama and get reelected somehow, despite fast-tracking a dangerous vaccine.
 
greepoman

greepoman

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,967
Typhonsentra said:
2008, which is my main frame of reference for a recovery after a big drop. The market may not return to the peak anytime soon, but 75% of the peak seems likely after everything calms down and we rebuild the lost jobs.
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Completely different situation both in terms of the issue and the political will to solve it (complete democratic control). More or less it was a pretty standard financial playbook to get out of it in 2008.

What we're facing now is completely unique. If we had the political will to do what china did we might be "back to stable" even sooner than your prediction. But with the way things are now it's most likely to be mismanaged which could cause another financial disaster (Google corporate debt if you want to be scared). Having multiple disasters with poor management could actually lead to another depression and November might be too late to do something about it.
 
feline fury

feline fury

Member
Dec 8, 2017
1,552
I still think there's a big drop lurking once the death rate spikes in the US due to the overload of the healthcare system. Right now things in NY seem to be teetering on the edge of catastrophe.

:(
 

Deleted member 5876

Big Seller
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,559
I think more likely than not that trading will be suspended for the foreseeable future. Probably around the time job numbers come out.
 

Ecotic

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,408
We're down about 35% from the highs, which is within the norm for a recession. Yeah, some recessions go down 50% and maybe even a little further, but now is not a bad time to buy for the long-term even if there's another leg down. If you're sitting on a pile of cash there could easily be a bounce of 15% beginning this week and then you've missed the opportunity. You'll still be sitting pretty if you buy here.
 
Servbot24

Servbot24

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
43,267
Ecotic said:
We're down about 35% from the highs, which is within the norm for a recession. Yeah, some recessions go down 50% and maybe even a little further, but now is not a bad time to buy for the long-term even if there's another leg down. If you're sitting on a pile of cash there could easily be a bounce of 15% beginning this week and then you've missed the opportunity. You'll still be sitting pretty if you buy here.
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There's no reason a bounce would come. Granted sometimes there seems to be no reason in the market.
 

Deleted member 1062

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
3,160
do you think things could get so bad that they stop the stock market all together for weeks or even months? I've got a chunk of AAPL vesting on April 15th that I need to at least sell SOME in order to cover a few expenses and starting to get nervous. I just hope AAPL is still above $150 by then
 
TyrantII

TyrantII

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,370
Boston
Ecotic said:
We're down about 35% from the highs, which is within the norm for a recession. Yeah, some recessions go down 50% and maybe even a little further, but now is not a bad time to buy for the long-term even if there's another leg down. If you're sitting on a pile of cash there could easily be a bounce of 15% beginning this week and then you've missed the opportunity. You'll still be sitting pretty if you buy here.
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First week of April we're going to get the report of 2.1 million jobless claims and it's going to tank the markets.

Meanwhile were seeing a liquidity and credit crunch and we don't know how that ends. Not as bad as 2008, but were seeing similar movements.

April is going to be interesting.
 
Link

Link

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
3,623
TyrantII said:
First week of April we're going to get the report of 2.1 million jobless claims and it's going to tank the markets.

Meanwhile were seeing a liquidity and credit crunch and we don't know how that ends. Not as bad as 2008, but were seeing similar movements.

April is going to be interesting.
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Gonna be way worse than that. It was estimated that 2.25 million applied for unemployment just last week. And apparently, that may have been on the low side of the actual number.
 
Servbot24

Servbot24

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
43,267
ProfessorLobo

ProfessorLobo

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
1,523
icespide said:
do you think things could get so bad that they stop the stock market all together for weeks or even months? I've got a chunk of AAPL vesting on April 15th that I need to at least sell SOME in order to cover a few expenses and starting to get nervous. I just hope AAPL is still above $150 by then
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There is a 0.1% chance this happens. And if it does you might as well anticipate a Mad Max future.
 
SneakersSO

SneakersSO

Banned
Oct 24, 2017
1,353
North America
Typhonsentra said:
2008, which is my main frame of reference for a recovery after a big drop. The market may not return to the peak anytime soon, but 75% of the peak seems likely after everything calms down and we rebuild the lost jobs.
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I know we are largely in the beginning phase of this societal/economic overhaul this virus is bringing about, but one thing should be made clear:

This current economic situation is wholly different & worse than the 2008 financial crisis.

In 07/08, yes, a lot of wealth & banks basically disappeared overnight, but the thing you have to understand is that the overwhelming majority of businesses remained open. Right now, the overwhelming majority of non-essential businesses in states are shut down, with no real idea on when things will re-open again. These are jobs and industries that are being put on hold or are facing existential risk (in the case of movie theaters or the hotel/tourism industry). Like, air travel didn't plummet the way it currently is back then.

We are just starting to get a notion on the short term effects this is having in terms of job loss and businesses closing down; it feels like years worth of developments on the economic side are happening daily. Expecting a near-peak resurgence right after a semi-permanent solution is found simply isn't a realistic outcome; it took 4 years to develop the wealth the market had and it went away in the matter of weeks.

And make no mistake, the market and its investors are doing the best they can to try and stabilize this thing, and they are losing. We've poured over a trillion into it and it still sunk. The moment we start getting real numbers on unemployment, or Q1 reports out of businesses, or the GDP starts rolling in from affected countries for the quarter, its going to sink even lower.
 
SmokeMaxX

SmokeMaxX

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,337
Again, not an economic expert, but I would under no circumstance consider what's going to happen in the next few months a "V shape." We might be closer to a horizontal line once we stop falling off the cliff.
 

Typhonsentra

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,957
The idea that we are going to phase out our reliance on the stock market for wealth generation while moving into a totally different economic model after this is pure fantasy. Even in a scenario where there are millions of deaths and a push for massive reforms, trillions of dollars will still be in these markets with no other viable alternative for wealth generation towards retirement plans. That alone ensures that after whatever happens, there will be a huge push towards returning to normal levels of consumer spending and investing.
 
MrGerbils

MrGerbils

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
314
I think a lot of people aren't prepared for what's about to happen. Huge amounts of business will go under. Tons of local restaurants wiped out, major national chains that don't receive bail outs are gone (movie theaters, major restaurant chains, department stores, etc). Many of them are probably already gone but you just don't know it yet.

Anyone who thinks the economic impacts of this will blow over in a couple months is in for a big surprise.
 
Kyougar

Kyougar

Cute Animal Whisperer
Member
Nov 3, 2017
9,384
Typhonsentra said:
The idea that we are going to phase out our reliance on the stock market for wealth generation while moving into a totally different economic model after this is pure fantasy. Even in a scenario where there are millions of deaths and a push for massive reforms, trillions of dollars will still be in these markets with no other viable alternative for wealth generation towards retirement plans. That alone ensures that after whatever happens, there will be a huge push towards returning to normal levels of consumer spending and investing.
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Now think about what happens when trillions of dollars get pumped into a market that has no productivity, no outlets, and no future security. Billionaires would want to first invest in material products like real estates and metals, ballooning the prices, creating a new bubble.

Hyperinflation!
 
XMonkey

XMonkey

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,827
Shlice said:
This is what I think also.

Millions will be tested next week. Panic will ensue. Buy then.
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Millions won't be tested by next week.

Yes, there are a lot of kits going out next week and in the weeks following (ArsTechnica has a good article), but we aren't at a point where we can process a million+ results that quickly yet.
 
PopcornMegaphone

PopcornMegaphone

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,167
greepoman said:
Completely different situation both in terms of the issue and the political will to solve it (complete democratic control). More or less it was a pretty standard financial playbook to get out of it in 2008.

What we're facing now is completely unique. If we had the political will to do what china did we might be "back to stable" even sooner than your prediction. But with the way things are now it's most likely to be mismanaged which could cause another financial disaster (Google corporate debt if you want to be scared). Having multiple disasters with poor management could actually lead to another depression and November might be too late to do something about it.
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There was nothing standard about 2008. I'd actually say we have a better understanding of potential outcomes for this situation then 2008.
 
Parch

Parch

Member
Nov 6, 2017
7,980
SmokeMaxX said:
Again, not an economic expert, but I would under no circumstance consider what's going to happen in the next few months a "V shape." We might be closer to a horizontal line once we stop falling off the cliff.
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I agree. Even the strongest of companies will be a slow increase to normal levels. There's going to be a lot of companies who struggle to recover, and plenty of companies who never recover.
 

Deleted member 41520

Banned
Mar 29, 2018
7,078
Typhonsentra said:
The idea that we are going to phase out our reliance on the stock market for wealth generation while moving into a totally different economic model after this is pure fantasy. Even in a scenario where there are millions of deaths and a push for massive reforms, trillions of dollars will still be in these markets with no other viable alternative for wealth generation towards retirement plans. That alone ensures that after whatever happens, there will be a huge push towards returning to normal levels of consumer spending and investing.
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Might governments legislate to change that fact? It's all arbitrary wealth and no actual value. When humanity is faced with a do or die crisis, might reform include drastic measures like forcing the investment of arbitrary wealth into actual value? E.g government or indeed public pockets? I'm not saying this is likely to happen at all but it's the kind of mechanism which may be involved in high level reform
 

Deleted member 41520

Banned
Mar 29, 2018
7,078
icespide said:
do you think things could get so bad that they stop the stock market all together for weeks or even months? I've got a chunk of AAPL vesting on April 15th that I need to at least sell SOME in order to cover a few expenses and starting to get nervous. I just hope AAPL is still above $150 by then
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ProfessorLobo said:
There is a 0.1% chance this happens. And if it does you might as well anticipate a Mad Max future.
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If the stock market structure is halted, it EITHER means we have established a borderline utopian socialist replacement, or yeah it's because society has completely collapsed. There is no middle ground. I believe the former is infinitely more likely. There are too many people with culture too rich for total societal collapse to happen from structural stuff. Environmental stuff? Yeah maybe.
 
Tracygill

Tracygill

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
1,853
The Left
U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed's Bullard Says


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard predicted the U.S. unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter because of shutdowns to combat the coronavirus, with an unprecedented 50% drop in gross domestic product.



Bullard called for a powerful fiscal response to replace the $2.5 trillion in lost income that quarter to ensure a strong eventual U.S. recovery, adding the Fed would be poised to do more to ensure markets function during a period of high volatility.

"Everything is on the table" for the Fed as far as additional lending programs, Bullard said in a telephone interview Sunday from St. Louis. "There is more that we can do if necessary" with existing emergency authority. "There is probably much more in the months ahead depending on where Congress wants to go."
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It's just the flu, bro
 
Zed

Zed

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,544
"I have the Greatest Depression, 30% unemployment. That loser Hoover could only get 25%!"
 
samoyed

samoyed

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
15,191
I can see a week shutdown in some insane scenario but no longer. Too much of the world is tied up in the market now and shutting it down will send the world into a bank run on stocks. It'd be sheer chaos and I can't imagine the situation that would call for it.
 
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