If that's the off ramp that Putin needs (even if it's not about that), than so be it. Not sure how there can be long term stability for Ukraine with Putin just waiting his turn for another shot.
If that's the off ramp that Putin needs (even if it's not about that), than so be it. Not sure how there can be long term stability for Ukraine with Putin just waiting his turn for another shot.
I think not joining NATO means any peace treaty is just an armistice.
I imagine Ukraine would receive a lot more weapons and support from other nations in the interim though.
May be more of a "rewording":
Just like what Russia tries to do, Ukraine is probably keeping Russia guessing plus pressure on the West.
This is absolutely the dumbest thing Russia could do...
So of course it's happening.
I assume this also means that joining the EU may be off the table as well? I don't think Putin wants any Western influence on Ukraine.
This is about the convoy, according to this guy it has been Putin's biggest strategic blunder. The reason why Russians are stuck in Irpen and haven't made further progress is because their tanks ran out of fuel and it is a logistical nightmare to deliver fuel. They can only shell Kyiv via Irpen but can't attack it.
unroll thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1503368526127673347.html
unroll thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1503368526127673347.html
It does not militarily. This is more map fan fiction (which Russia seemingly did run its campaign on...). Those landing ships won't even be able to hold more than 10% of Odessa nor encircle it. It is the 3rd largest city in Ukraine. Now add that next to Kyiv, it is now most likely the 2nd most fortified city as well.
It is very probable that if they landed, they would be outnumbered 5 to 1 or greater going into a fortified position. AKA Suicide.
We've seen the Russian Army shit the bed, we've seen the Russian Air Force shit the bed, Russian Navy, come on down. Your turn.
A treaty and peace now would stop the bloodshed, but I agree it would only be an armistice. They'll be back. Sure, Ukraine would receive outside support to beef up and rebuild but now (you would think) Russia realizes what a disaster their logistics are and (you would think) they'd address that in the interim. The destruction would play out all over again however many years down the line and they may be successful. Ukraine will never be able to trust Russia again after this. As crazy a notion as it is, I think here and now is Ukraine's best shot.
these ship have been at see for the past two weeks, waiting for the order to land ? The Bosphorus is still close to Russian ships ?
Yah. Part of me wonders if they had been waiting for a reasonable approach (which would likely be never). And the pressure just got to the point where they are demanding they try, fuck the consequences. If so, gonna be a slaughter.
Yeah odessa has been preparing for 3 weeks and is close to the border which means they probably got loads of NATO weaponary.
It is probably in the pre-invasion thread, but I made a post that it would be near impossible for Russia to hold long-term everything west of Kherson. There is only one bridge, so they are logistically bottle necked and that terrain is near impossible to defend against attacks. You would need nearly 100,000 men alone in that zone to try and hold it and the three cities (Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odessa). Again, pure map fan fiction to connect to Moldova.
Last week the sea weather was bad so they couldn't land if they wanted to. That is why they moored off Crimea and there were pictures taken of the fleet.
Even if the Russians take that land, how many Ukrainians live in that crescent already? How could they possibly seal that new border with Ukraine? Seems like a recipe for a permanent, expensive, painful insurgency in exchange for very little upside.
Surely those are crimearian ships from the russian black sea forces.
The passage into the black sea is closed, yes.
It really is a "pond", and the whole strategic black sea forces are worthless on a greater scale.
That's good stuff. So people wondering why they didn't hammer thst convoy.
Only way Russia accepts that is if they're desperately looking for a way out. NATO doesn't really matter if Ukraine is still allowed in the EU.
So, say... If they lose a couple of big landing ships' worth of marines?
Could be a move by some general to say "I'm out of reserves and about to be surrounded. We need to end this!"
So by this evening they'll have their highest paid employee saying he's a crisis actor?
Ukraine was said to have 100 of their domestically produced "Neptune" anti-shipping missiles before the war. I don't know if any have been fired yet or if they were all destroyed on the ground.
Well that southern group has their Black Sea fleet flagship it seems (depending on how close it wants to get). If they had any in the area hidden, that would be one hell of a painful target to lose.
Now in reality, they aren't hitting this thing.
This soldier definitely did not want to be there, you could tell there was some internal conflict
www.reddit.com
Reddit - Dive into anything
www.reddit.com
At least it's easy to spot everyones allegiance when they are calling it an "operation".
Yeah, he was near Coup levels of dissent, I think. Doesn't matter how close to Putin he is, there is a limit.
Putin is going to remember this the next time Lukashenko needs him to save his ass.
OH MAN.
This is good shit.
Not only is it bad logistically for Russia, but it's another massive blow to the image of Putin and the control he has on these places. LOL even the Army of Belarus noped out.
I mean, that's what they said about the Bykov, but then it wandered into GRAD range.... :)
More like Putin's gonna purge the Belarusian army after this is over. Lukashenko & Putin cannot force the Belarusian army to invade or they'll risk mutiny. Risking mutiny when their staging area and air base is located in Belarus would be devastating.
I mean, Lieutenant Colonels don't usually dictate force deployments, so ol' Luka wouldn't know anyways.
This would explain Russia's prodding China for assistance
Honestly amazed they're able to hit moving columns with artillery, drones must help a lot. Would love to see exactly how that's done.
They really stopped growing wheat or whatever and started farming lead.