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arsene_P5

Prophet of Regret
Member
Apr 17, 2020
15,438
Kinda hope a future Germany would stop covering behind its history and understand that fighting for your values must also entail arming ideological allies.
Easier said than done, when germany has a stigma, because of their history. Germany helps ukraine, just not with weapons right now. This can change however, because even with the principle to not deliver weapons in warzone in place, germany did make exceptions in the past.

I hope germany does deliver weapons, since the time to talk seems to be over. The political party needs to realize that and not hold onto their principle, approach or dream that everything can be discussed.
 

Yossarian

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
13,265
But no one uses them, so unless they think that China is going to bankroll them, it doesn't help them too much. China doesn't want to bankroll, they want to pick up the pieces and become entrenched after the fact

Short term it will hurt, but I don't think it's the "nuclear option" the media are playing it up as, except in the sense that everyone gets hurt by it. They'd still be able to conduct international transfers, just not as effectively.

Surely sanctions on Russian banks would be more effective?
 

whytemyke

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
3,789


I guess the rumors yesterday have been verified and that Putin is sending in Chechens to Ukraine to fight. I know the US can't openly intervene militarily in the war but I hope someone in the west is getting top rated gear to the people in Ukraine before the war crimes start happening due to this deployment.
 

BowieZ

Member
Nov 7, 2017
3,975
I've been watching a few Twitch streams where people are effectively blaming the US/NATO for this invasion, for forcing Russia's hand, as it were, after decades of ostracisation.

I'm trying to be measured in my response to these assertions; does anyone have any good readings/sources on the topic?
 

LJ11

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,490
Regarding Swift, could hypothetically countries get all their orders in before the hammer comes down so Russia still get loads of money?

Dude, in theory you can just switch to a different messaging service, but can you actually clear the transaction is the important part? If I can't settle, it doesn't matter how I communicate, I can't get money where it needs to be, Swift doesn't stop you from clearing. You need to choke out their ability for dollars, and they've kind of done that, you can't do shit internationally without NY Fed putting their finger in the pie. If you don't have access to a bank with dollars you're going to struggle, and bans in place are doing that, although there are some exemptions due to energy, so in theory if they ban Swift it still leaves those exemptions for energy but it will make it harder to communicate the need to move funds, although it's still very much possible.

A More Normal Bird had a good post last night about it, check it out
 

Steiner_Zi

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,346
Easier said than done, when germany has a stigma, because of their history. Germany helps ukraine, just not with weapons right now. This can change however, because even with the principle to not deliver weapons in warzone in place, germany did make exceptions in the past.

I hope germany does deliver weapons, since the time to talk seems to be over. The political party needs to realize that and not hold onto their principle, approach or dream that everything can be discussed.
Germany has no problems arming Saudi Arabia who commits war crimes in Yemen or Turkey who are aggressors both in the Middle East and harass other EU countries in the Eastern Mediterranean. So, all of this reluctance is super hypocritical, they are just thinking about their pockets and don't want to challenge the status quo, which is typical of German governments in the last 10 years at least.
 

Isee

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
6,236
So will Putin retreat or not is the big question. Is he prepared to lose alot more soldiers to take kiev. How far is Russia willing to go to take kiev.

No way to tell.
Evaluating the thoughts of a megalomaniac, brooding in his sealed off, shielded environment for years. Not allowing other people to make contact, let alone somebody questioning his thoughts and ideas.

It is impossible.
 
Oct 25, 2017
9,428
Had it gone quickly, he might have been able to angle for 'well it's already over, let's go back to normal'.

This is the only scenario that makes sense to me. They wanted it to happen overnight, install a new government, and put out some bullshit right-wing digestible justification that would cause more division when governments were deciding to react or not.

I don't know anything about anything but this can't be going how they expected it to.
 

Kevers

The Fallen
Oct 29, 2017
14,583
Syracuse, NY
I've been watching a few Twitch streams where people are effectively blaming the US/NATO for this invasion, for forcing Russia's hand, as it were, after decades of ostracisation.

I'm trying to be measured in my response to these assertions; does anyone have any good readings/sources on the topic?

My 19 year old cousin posted the same kind of bullshit on Facebook about how the US and Biden are responsible for this and that our government not doing anything to help proves how shitty the democrats are.
 

Maquiladora

Member
Nov 16, 2017
5,104
Via a third country? So what, paying another EU member to supply them so it's not technically coming from Germany?

No just means Germany not directly supplying them to Ukraine. It's impossible for a German transport plane to fly to Ukraine now. Will probably be transferred to trucks in Poland and moved across the land border.
 

Stooge

Member
Oct 29, 2017
11,294
Short term it will hurt, but I don't think it's the "nuclear option" the media are playing it up as, except in the sense that everyone gets hurt by it. They'd still be able to conduct international transfers, just not as effectively.

Surely sanctions on Russian banks would be more effective?

It's a nuclear option.

When I send money ir get money from European partners I use swift. I'm a tiny business.

This will basically shut down international financial transactions for normal Russians. Yes, at the state level they can transact through other means but not efficiently.

The only nation currently sanctioned from swift is Iran and they aren't doing great.
 

Yossarian

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
13,265


That's more like it. Do it!

It's a nuclear option.

When I send money ir get money from European partners I use swift. I'm a tiny business.

This will basically shut down international financial transactions for normal Russians. Yes, at the state level they can transact through other means but not efficiently.

The only nation currently sanctioned from swift is Iran and they aren't doing great.

Iran and Russia aren't really comparable. Iran is a much smaller economy with less ties to the global economy. Russia is larger and will feel it more in the short term, granted, but they do have alternatives, albeit less efficient ones. They have been preparing for this since 2014 when the idea was floated originally.

Like all the proposed sanctions so far, SWIFT sanctions will inordinately impact ordinary folk more than the top brass, and it's the latter that need squeezing to have a hope of stopping this thing. That means bank sanctions.
 
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eonden

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,094
Via a third country? So what, paying another EU member to supply them so it's not technically coming from Germany?
Other countries are using Germany equipment. Normally when you have military equipment from another country you arent allowed to send them without approval of the first country. In this case, it is Germany allowing that to happen (I assume).
Germany army in general is quite underequipped so I doubt they have storage full of modern equipment to give away.
 

Mavis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,476
Blue Mountains
Doesn't NATO have ships in the Black Sea that can escort merchant ships? The last report I read said Russia has around 20 warships in the Black Sea,
I was reading up on this last night. Apparently the last NATO vessel left the Black Sea in January. Turkey were really nervous about provoking Russia so pushed to keep NATO away from the region. I would hope that is changing and naval escorts will start moving into the area, if only to give Russia pause when 'accidently' attacking merchant vessels.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ea-exposed-russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24/
 

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,010
Short term it will hurt, but I don't think it's the "nuclear option" the media are playing it up as, except in the sense that everyone gets hurt by it. Surely sanctions on Russian banks would be more effective?


It is a nuclear option though. The Russian banks will have almost no possibility to transfer money from and to Russia (combined with the sanctions on the corresponding banks). That will create a big issue for them in terms of financing and trade. It will most likely create also a secondary problem in terms of a bank run. Being connected to the Chinese system helps them only in connection to Chinese banks, which will not help too much.
 

Sayre

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
728
Ukraine is putting up a fight and doing better than most people expected.. but I'm increasingly worried of Putin just saying, "F' It" and level the cities.
 

Isee

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
6,236


GOOD.

Possible, simplified explanation for the extra step with the other country:
They are technically not allowed to send weapons to a party already in conflict. At least not without asking the parliament first, debates etc.
It could be that the government is simply using this as a loophole.

Not saying this is the explanation. Just saying it could be the reason.
 

shiba5

I shed
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
15,825
In a hypothetical scenario where Putin actually uses a dirty bomb, what's to stop NATO from immediately admitting Ukraine to NATO and flooding the country with troops?

I admit I'm a little unlcear why NATO has declined Ukraine admission other than "makes papa Putin angry". My husband said something about Ukraine's government being historically corrupt, but a) what government isn't and b) Zelensky is the guy who refused to be blackmailed by Trump.
 
Nov 9, 2017
1,476
Réunion
Melenchon. Dude went from "Putin won't invade, he's only putting pressure on an agressive NATO" last week to finally denouncing him two days ago, and in the same breath advocating for peace through Ukraine's demilitarization.
Makes me happy for Ukraine he lost in 2017.

Mélenchon? Quelle surprise ! Now I wonder what my friend who fervently follows him might be thinking.
 

19thCenturyFox

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 29, 2017
4,309
In a hypothetical scenario where Putin actually uses a dirty bomb, what's to stop NATO from immediately admitting Ukraine to NATO and flooding the country with troops?

I admit I'm a little unlcear why NATO has declined Ukraine admission other than "makes papa Putin angry". My husband said something about Ukraine's government being historically corrupt, but a) what government isn't and b) Zelensky is the guy who refused to be blackmailed by Trump.

Their policy is not to accept new members who are engaged in active conflicts, apparently being invaded twice constitutes as being engaged in an active conflict.
 

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,382
I admit I'm a little unlcear why NATO has declined Ukraine admission other than "makes papa Putin angry". My husband said something about Ukraine's government being historically corrupt, but a) what government isn't and b) Zelensky is the guy who refused to be blackmailed by Trump.
Technically you have to fullfill a bunch of requirements which ukraine probably doesn't meet. I think there is also something that prohibits you from join while you're in a conflict
 

mugurumakensei

Elizabeth, I’m coming to join you!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,344
In a hypothetical scenario where Putin actually uses a dirty bomb, what's to stop NATO from immediately admitting Ukraine to NATO and flooding the country with troops?

I admit I'm a little unlcear why NATO has declined Ukraine admission other than "makes papa Putin angry". My husband said something about Ukraine's government being historically corrupt, but a) what government isn't and b) Zelensky is the guy who refused to be blackmailed by Trump.
Part of the charter specifies there can't be a civil war (Donbas contention thus blocks admittance to nato) and corruption be minimal (previous Ukrainian government that was a Russian puppet state was highly corrupt)
 

Deleted member 70788

Jun 2, 2020
9,620
Does the Ukraine send out mass text massages and does it broadcast widely heard announcements in cities how the Russisn soldiers have been deceived and lied to? I also think Selenky's Russian speech was genius.
It's Ukraine. Not The Ukraine. The former is seen as a Russian term to negate their sovereignty.
 

BowieZ

Member
Nov 7, 2017
3,975
I admit I'm a little unlcear why NATO has declined Ukraine admission other than "makes papa Putin angry".
It seems to be a general consensus in the West that Ukraine joining NATO would effectively be the US "going to war" with Russia, and thus amounting to starting a nuclear war.

And that kind of thinking is exactly why Putin is emboldened to seize Ukraine, knowing the West can and will do comparatively very little.

But that's ironic to me, because Putin doesn't want to reduce his cities to nuclear rubble just as much as anyone else does.
 

Joni

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,508
I've been watching a few Twitch streams where people are effectively blaming the US/NATO for this invasion, for forcing Russia's hand, as it were, after decades of ostracisation.

I'm trying to be measured in my response to these assertions; does anyone have any good readings/sources on the topic?
Just don't respond. It is a clear sign someone is too entrenched in his stupidity.