Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,639
So much smoke around these Patriots. I guess maybe some UAF staff has been getting the training all along.... but I'll believe it when I see it.
Said this months ago but i'd be shocked if there aren't ukrainian soldiers being trained on western tanks, airplanes, helicopters, AD and whatever else needs longer training just to be prepared for the eventuality of change in political decision making and the greenlight for delivery.
 

Zip

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,042
How many old Soviet IFVs and tanks are still floating around our there in countries that might be willing to hand them over to Ukraine?

I imagine projections have been drawn up of how long this can go for before that sourcing fully dries up, and needs to be further supplemented or replaced by more modern western equipment. Whenever that would be is when I'd expect Ukraine to start receiving western tanks, with the training starting in time to meet the projected shortage.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,382
Aug 12, 2019
5,159
Well, all the news coming out of Donetsk seems pretty bad at this point. Russia seems to be getting a handle on the Southern outskirts of Bakhmut after months of storming the city pointlessly and further down the line near Kurdyumivka it appears Russians are also regaining the initiative. Not to mention Avdiivka is just still in a really bad position with the pincer slowly forming towards it.

Like I said, I don't expect these places to fall quickly, but I think there's an above average chance Russia is capable of enough force generation on the localized Donetsk line to regain the initiative and begin pushing further into the Western Oblast Ukraine still controls. Ukraine seems unfortunately a bit overdue to have to face their own losses again due to an increasingly difficult set of circumstances forced upon them and the fact wars are back and fourth in nature and around Donetsk/Luhansk we should expect more setbacks than other places given the relatively short GLOCS and supply routes relative to elsewhere in Ukraine.

I know people will complain about this sort of pessimism or alternatively do the victory lap of "me always getting things wrong" but in the post Kherson space we are seeing a slightly more effective, slightly more competent Russia capable of more things and engaging in even more brutal civilian infrastructure attacks that are pulling down on Ukraine's whole existence and war effort. This will be the time for Ukraine to face some really tough and harsh realities as they try to reconstitute themselves and figure out how to reset the offensive situation now that their own Northeastern offensive has finally slowed to a crawl and the greater West Bank campaign concluded with Kherson's liberation.
 

Buckle

Member
Oct 27, 2017
41,388

This guy does darkly fascinating work.

Its always interesting getting to peer into the mirror dimension Russians currently live in. Whether its through the russian soldiers, milbloggers or family members in intercepted calls.

That sort of bizzare cult or in this case nationalist propaganda induced behavior you see in people in situations or places like this, its one of the most disturbing parts of human behavior to me. How we can be programmed like that. Even with all the deep shit they're in, they still don't realize the true extent of how fucked they are as a country in the coming years.

Even when the notable bloggers think they are rebelling against the establishment and speaking up for the brave soldiers who are ill supplied to fight a just war (a lot of these lunatics still call Ukrainians nazis on occasion), they just don't realize how much of everything they believe is a lie, you were brainwashed to fight this war by the very people you think you're standing up to. They exist and act only to perpetuate the soviet system of abuse and corruption they're so shocked by.

Its like a really morbid comedy/tragedy.
 
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Oct 27, 2017
45,628
Seattle
Russians are expending all their energy in Donetsk and will grind out of bodies soon enough, unless we see a trend of momentum/strong gains by Russia, this is just a grinding war in Donetsk and Russia is still having massive losses
 
Aug 12, 2019
5,159
Russians are expending all their energy in Donetsk and will grind out of bodies soon enough, unless we see a trend of momentum/strong gains by Russia, this is just a grinding war in Donetsk and Russia is still having massive losses

I mean, they really won't run out of bodies anytime soon. Last estimates I've seen indicate that they've probably committed around 1/3rd of the mobilized to Ukraine with the other 2/3rds out there waiting for a bloody summons. They aren't trained, equipped, or prepared, but they are still more bodies to throw on the line. And that's without taking into consideration the normal conscription cycle Russia just took part in, Wagner's prison break recruitment, or the ever lasting covert mobilization efforts Russia has engaged in. There's no "soon" to grinding out those forces, and especially not if the likely second wave of partial mobilization hits.

At some point untrained troops will become dominant and thus largely exhaust Russia's offensive potential. But then that still creates a difficult situation for Ukraine in trying to break defensive lines where the less trained mobilized troops are going to be much more effective defenders than offensive players simply by the nature of how defense works.
 

Zip

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,042
Well, all the news coming out of Donetsk seems pretty bad at this point. Russia seems to be getting a handle on the Southern outskirts of Bakhmut after months of storming the city pointlessly and further down the line near Kurdyumivka it appears Russians are also regaining the initiative. Not to mention Avdiivka is just still in a really bad position with the pincer slowly forming towards it.

Like I said, I don't expect these places to fall quickly, but I think there's an above average chance Russia is capable of enough force generation on the localized Donetsk line to regain the initiative and begin pushing further into the Western Oblast Ukraine still controls. Ukraine seems unfortunately a bit overdue to have to face their own losses again due to an increasingly difficult set of circumstances forced upon them and the fact wars are back and fourth in nature and around Donetsk/Luhansk we should expect more setbacks than other places given the relatively short GLOCS and supply routes relative to elsewhere in Ukraine.

I know people will complain about this sort of pessimism or alternatively do the victory lap of "me always getting things wrong" but in the post Kherson space we are seeing a slightly more effective, slightly more competent Russia capable of more things and engaging in even more brutal civilian infrastructure attacks that are pulling down on Ukraine's whole existence and war effort. This will be the time for Ukraine to face some really tough and harsh realities as they try to reconstitute themselves and figure out how to reset the offensive situation now that their own Northeastern offensive has finally slowed to a crawl and the greater West Bank campaign concluded with Kherson's liberation.

There's no big mystery shift or tide turning here. Russia is simply throwing the tens of thousands of troops recovered from Kherson at other fronts, with still outsized attention on Bakhmut.

Ukraine seems like it's doing the same as before - grind down Russia's offensives while probing and positioning for weaknesses.

I would be surprised to see any big moves from Ukraine before the ground freezes. Naturally as the fronts get shorter the grind becomes more likely as defenses become denser.
 

EagleClaw

Member
Dec 31, 2018
10,949

View: https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1597888002436796417

Europe will create an ciminal court for war crimes with backing from the UN, while also supporting the International Criminal Court.
Europe could, in the short term, use frozen Russian money (€300bln Russian Central Bank + €19bln Russian oligarchs) to invest into Ukraine.


---------------------------------------------------


Today the German parliament will recognise the Holodomor as an genocide against the Ukrainian people carried out by the USSR.

The motion is submitted by the coalition (SPD/Greens/FDP) and the biggest opposition (CDU/CSU),
and will be supported with a huge majority.

Live at 6pm CET Parliament youtube
 
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Scottoest

Member
Feb 4, 2020
11,439

View: https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1597888002436796417

Europe will create an ciminal court for war crimes with backing from the UN, while also supporting the International Criminal Court.
Europe could, in the short term, use frozen Russian money (€300bln Russian Central Bank + €19bln Russian oligarchs) to invest into Ukraine.


Probably the only way you'll get reparations from Russia, so I'm happy they are doing it.

They're just gonna have to be careful to reassure China that this is an extraordinary circumstance, because China holds a lot of western currency.

Court for war crimes is also good. Don't let these fuckers feel safe anywhere outside Russia for the rest of their lives.
 

Binabik15

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,684

View: https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1597888002436796417

Europe will create an ciminal court for war crimes with backing from the UN, while also supporting the International Criminal Court.
Europe could, in the short term, use frozen Russian money (€300bln Russian Central Bank + €19bln Russian oligarchs) to invest into Ukraine.


---------------------------------------------------


Today the German parliament will recognise the Holodomor as an genocide against the Ukrainian people carried out by the USSR.

The motion is submitted by the coalition (SPD/Greens/FDP) and the biggest opposition (CDU/CSU),
and will be supported with a huge majority.

Live at 6pm CET Parliament youtube



Good stuff.
 

targethyena

Member
Oct 27, 2017
713
Probably the only way you'll get reparations from Russia, so I'm happy they are doing it.

They're just gonna have to be careful to reassure China that this is an extraordinary circumstance, because China holds a lot of western currency.

Court for war crimes is also good. Don't let these fuckers feel safe anywhere outside Russia for the rest of their lives.
China does not need reassuring, they need to play by the rules like the rest of the world
 

EagleClaw

Member
Dec 31, 2018
10,949
Probably the only way you'll get reparations from Russia, so I'm happy they are doing it.

They're just gonna have to be careful to reassure China that this is an extraordinary circumstance, because China holds a lot of western currency.

Court for war crimes is also good. Don't let these fuckers feel safe anywhere outside Russia for the rest of their lives.

I don't believe China will do anything against their own interest to support Russia.
I don't see how freezing "western" economical assets would be in Chinas interest.

Surely that might become a huge issue if China goes a path like Russia on their own.
China going a "Russia way" could be really bad for the "west".
It will lead to a huge economical pain in the whole world, it is something different then some missing gas and oil.
 

kmfdmpig

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
19,497
Well, all the news coming out of Donetsk seems pretty bad at this point. Russia seems to be getting a handle on the Southern outskirts of Bakhmut after months of storming the city pointlessly and further down the line near Kurdyumivka it appears Russians are also regaining the initiative. Not to mention Avdiivka is just still in a really bad position with the pincer slowly forming towards it.

Like I said, I don't expect these places to fall quickly, but I think there's an above average chance Russia is capable of enough force generation on the localized Donetsk line to regain the initiative and begin pushing further into the Western Oblast Ukraine still controls. Ukraine seems unfortunately a bit overdue to have to face their own losses again due to an increasingly difficult set of circumstances forced upon them and the fact wars are back and fourth in nature and around Donetsk/Luhansk we should expect more setbacks than other places given the relatively short GLOCS and supply routes relative to elsewhere in Ukraine.

I know people will complain about this sort of pessimism or alternatively do the victory lap of "me always getting things wrong" but in the post Kherson space we are seeing a slightly more effective, slightly more competent Russia capable of more things and engaging in even more brutal civilian infrastructure attacks that are pulling down on Ukraine's whole existence and war effort. This will be the time for Ukraine to face some really tough and harsh realities as they try to reconstitute themselves and figure out how to reset the offensive situation now that their own Northeastern offensive has finally slowed to a crawl and the greater West Bank campaign concluded with Kherson's liberation.
It seems like the factors favoring Ukraine remain the same or are accelerating (better trained troops, better morale, better equipment) while those hurting the Russians (less effectively trained troops, a major loss of viable equipment, terrible morale) are accelerating. It seems to me that those trends bode very well for Ukraine. The only reason that Russia seems to be having success in Bakhmut is that they're trying to use it as a moral victory and putting way more resources towards it than would make sense to military planners. If they take a few KMs while losing thousands of troops and a lot of equipment I'm not sure that it'd help them in their larger goals, particularly if Ukraine is able to instead push toward a more strategic goal elsewhere.
I'm more worried about the ongoing damage Russia is inflicting on civilians and energy infrastructure, which will be particularly tough as it gets colder and colder. It's good to see the West supply generators and more anti-air defenses but I suspect that there will still be many innocent civilians who die due to Russia's ongoing war crimes regarding energy infrastructure.
 

Scottoest

Member
Feb 4, 2020
11,439
I don't believe China will do anything against their own interest to support Russia.
I don't see how freezing "western" economical assets would be in Chinas interest.

Surely that might become a huge issue if China goes a path like Russia on their own.
China going a "Russia way" could be really bad for the "west".
It will lead to a huge economical pain in the whole world, it is something different then some missing gas and oil.

I meant more China deciding they can't trust western financial institutions not to suddenly seize their assets, and the repercussions of that. I don't think China are going to go out on any limbs to support Russia right now - if anything they seem to be slowly backing away.
 

EagleClaw

Member
Dec 31, 2018
10,949
I meant more China deciding they can't trust western financial institutions not to suddenly seize their assets, and the repercussions of that. I don't think China are going to go out on any limbs to support Russia right now - if anything they seem to be slowly backing away.

I also don't see that.
China will still try to buy as many shares of "western" companies and try to place their foot in important infrastructure when it is in their interest.
Actually the "west" should forbid those things, because foreign companies have no right by Chinese law to buy a majority on chinese corporations.

But it surely is true that it isn't advertising the "west" as partners to certain regimes, and might turn some to China.
 

steejee

Member
Oct 28, 2017
8,778

View: https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1597947112985366528

It also states the deployment of HIMARS basically changed the state of the war in the east.


Honestly those drone attrition rates seem...expected? You've got a relatively cheap and expendable tool that's pretty slow and almost always operating low altitude in a very exposed fashion. I'm not sure how you could reduce losses without making them way more expensive.

Though I do wonder if there's some cheap camo options that could help like painting the underside a grey/blue sky pattern, or adding a 'duck and cover' quick switch on them that has them shut off engines and auto-restart/level at a very low altitude (basically to try to hide from incoming fire). I could see some defensive actions like the above being made autonomous even via some cheap-ish sensors.
 

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,639
I recommend reading the article (paper authored by a Ukrainian lieutenant-general), but wow some of the info here is crazy.


View: https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1597947112985366528

It also states the deployment of HIMARS basically changed the state of the war in the east.

Not sure why he's talking about european drone fleets considering any war with participation of europe or the US would be in a vastly different environment.

Both europe and the US would do their best to ensure air dominance is established and take out most AD within 48 hours to ensure drones and aircraft can operate relatively freely.
 

SFLUFAN

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,491
Alexandria, VA
ISW analysis for 29 November 2022:

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces made marginal gains around Bakhmut on November 29, but Russian forces remain unlikely to have advanced at the tempo that Russian sources claimed. Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces made marginal advances southeast of Bakhmut but

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Russian forces made marginal gains around Bakhmut on November 29, but Russian forces remain unlikely to have advanced at the tempo that Russian sources claimed. Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces made marginal advances southeast of Bakhmut but ISW remains unable to confirm most other claimed gains around Bakhmut made since November 27.[1] Some Russian milbloggers made unsubstantiated claims that Russian forces broke through the Ukrainian defensive line south of Bakhmut along the T0513 highway to advance towards Chasiv Yar, which would cut one of two remaining main Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Bakhmut, but such claims are likely part of a continuing Russian information operation and are premature, as ISW has previously assessed.[2] ISW continues to assess that the degraded Russian forces around Bakhmut are unlikely to place Bakhmut under threat of imminent encirclement rapidly.[3]

The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on November 29 that Russian forces have likely stopped deploying battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in the past three months.[4] The UK MoD stated that the BTGs' relatively low allocation of infantry, decentralized distribution of artillery, and the limited independence of BTG decision-making hindered their success in Ukraine.[5] ISW assessed starting in April that Russian BTGs were degraded in various failed or culminated Russian offensives, including the attacks on Kyiv, Mariupol, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk, and later efforts to reconstitute these BTGs to restore their combat power have failed.[6] Russian forces have likely since thrown their remaining combat power and new personnel, including mobilized personnel, into poorly trained, equipped, and organized ad hoc structures with low morale and discipline.[7] The structure of BTGs and the way the Russian military formed them by breaking up doctrinal battalions, regiments, and brigades likely deprived the Russians of the ability to revert to doctrinal organizations, as ISW has previously assessed, so that the Russians must now rely on ad-hoc structures with mobilized personnel.[8]

Key Takeaways
  • Russian forces made marginal gains around Bakhmut on November 29, but Russian forces remain unlikely to have advanced at the tempo that Russian sources claimed.
  • The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that Russian forces have likely stopped deploying battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in the past three months, supporting ISW's prior assessments.
  • Russian forces continued to defend against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations around Svatove as Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations around Svatove and Kreminna.
  • Russian forces continued limited ground attacks west of Kreminna to regain lost positions.
  • Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Siversk and Avdiivka, and in western Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russian forces continued strengthening defensive positions in eastern Kherson Oblast as Ukrainian forces continued striking Russian force concentrations in southern Ukraine.
  • Russian forces continued to struggle with outdated equipment and domestic personnel shortages amid official actions indicative of a probable second wave of mobilization.
  • An independent investigation found that Russia may have transported thousands of Ukrainian prisoners from penal colonies in occupied Ukraine to Russia following the withdrawal from the west bank of Kherson Oblast.

DraftUkraineCoTNovember29%2C2022.png
 

Thordinson

Member
Aug 1, 2018
18,356

View: https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1597888002436796417

Europe will create an ciminal court for war crimes with backing from the UN, while also supporting the International Criminal Court.
Europe could, in the short term, use frozen Russian money (€300bln Russian Central Bank + €19bln Russian oligarchs) to invest into Ukraine.


---------------------------------------------------


Today the German parliament will recognise the Holodomor as an genocide against the Ukrainian people carried out by the USSR.

The motion is submitted by the coalition (SPD/Greens/FDP) and the biggest opposition (CDU/CSU),
and will be supported with a huge majority.

Live at 6pm CET Parliament youtube


I admittedly don't know a whole lot about the region but this is one of the first times that I've read that the Holodomor was intentional or even genocide. Is this the consensus? If it is, it makes the entire event so much worse.
 

JonnyDBrit

God and Anime
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,099
I admittedly don't know a whole lot about the region but this is one of the first times that I've read that the Holodomor was intentional or even genocide. Is this the consensus? If it is, it makes the entire event so much worse.
That's basically been the big argument about the Holodomor as an academic subject for decades. There's a couple differing flavours, but the boiler plate answers are:
A) The Soviet Union at large was suffering famine in the early 30s, particularly on frontier republics, and so the Holodomor is merely a regional reflection of that
B) While the Holodomor was specific to Ukraine, it wasn't done with motive towards the Ukrainian people, as it was they - particularly Kulaks - were the acceptable collateral of Stalin's grain control policies. Whether or not this is genocide is then a secondary argument
C) The holodomor was done with knowing, if not deliberate, understanding of its impact upon the Ukrainian population, especially the kulaks, and is thus genocide

Plug the term into Jstor and you'll find a smattering of samples

Edit: I would say that B has for a while been the most likely position you would see people take, but the last decade or so has seen a distinct shift towards its recognition as a genocide, if not an outright embrace of C - the war has very much accelerated that
 
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EagleClaw

Member
Dec 31, 2018
10,949
I admittedly don't know a whole lot about the region but this is one of the first times that I've read that the Holodomor was intentional or even genocide. Is this the consensus? If it is, it makes the entire event so much worse.

I don't know much about that topic.
I just know that the USSR collected the grain from Ukrainian lands to feed mostly other regions, while some Ukrainians were denied to leave their region.

Germany will become another nation that recognise it as an genocide, beside those nations.
I believe the decision is made with knowledge, Germany has normally big problems to call other things a genocide out of respect to the Holocaust.

EDIT:
Here is the motion with the explanation.
Holodomor in der Ukraine: Erinnern – Gedenken – Mahnen (pdf/German)

The motion, machine translated.

The German Bundestag states:
Ninety years ago the Holodomor (from Ukrainian "holod" - hunger;
"moryty" - kill) in the winter of 1932/1933 its most terrible phase. This
targeted and mass killing of people through starvation, millions fell
Victimized people in Ukraine. The mass starvation was not
result of failed harvests, but was the responsibility of the political leadership of the Soviet Union under Josef Stalin. The Holodomor thus represents a crime against humanity. The Holodomor has so far been in Germany and the European Union
known only to a few people.
On the one hand, hunger was the direct consequence of the policy of forced collectivization of peasants, that is, the implementation of the Soviet policy
power and economic model from top to bottom down to rural areas
areas and villages. Stalin wanted at all costs to promote the consolidation of his power and the industrialization of the Soviet Union. Human lives were irrelevant. From 1928, millions of farmers were deprived of their crops to supply cities and factories. For foreign exchange
as well as to procure machines from Western production, the grain became
also exported. Supposedly wealthy farmers were called
so-called "kulaks" were brutally persecuted and deported. With each additional year
the rigor and brutality of the forced requisitions increased.
Already in the winter of 1931/1932 hundreds of thousands died in the country and in the
villages from malnutrition. Despite this, the violent requisitions continued. Hunger was also used as a punishment and if the stipulated delivery quantities were not met, a multiple of grain and other food was demanded and confiscated. The affected regions were cordoned off to prevent the hungry from fleeing to the cities and food from being transported to the regions. In the winter of 1932/1933 alone, 3 to 3.5 million people starved to death in the Ukraine. hundreds of thousands
also starved to death in the east of the Kuban region, which was mainly populated by Ukrainians
the Ukraine and north of the Caucasus.
On the other hand, the aim of the mass killing through starvation was the political suppression of Ukrainian national consciousness. After the end
of the Russian Tsarist Empire, from 1917/1918 Ukraine had a short phase of
experienced independence. The Bolsheviks subdued Ukraine militarily and
incorporated them into the Soviet Union. At the same time, in the early years of the Soviet Union, they briefly promoted local languages and culture and, to a lesser extent, elements and
Symbols of independence within the Soviet Union, also about loyalty
to secure Ukraine to Moscow.
Stalin ended this policy after taking full power. The Russian language and culture once again stood unchallenged at the top of the unofficial hierarchy within the Soviet Union. First became relatives
of the Ukrainian elite from church, culture, science and politics en masse
pursued, imprisoned and murdered by the Soviet secret police, with the
aim of destroying them as bearers of cultural identity. They were also followed
Ukrainian national communists. With the politics of
Forced collectivization then came the persecution and brutal repression of those who allegedly or actually resisted the forced requisitions
of Ukrainian farmers. The "Ukrainian" was Stalin deeply
suspect, he considered him to be resistant and to be subordinate at all costs. At the same time was
Ukraine for the Soviet leadership as a territory and because of its economic importance - Ukraine together with the Kuban region produced more than half of the entire grain of the Soviet Union - of the greatest
importance and should be kept under strict control of the Soviet power center in Moscow.
It thus appears that in the case of the political crime of the Holodomor
the striving of the Soviet leadership for control and suppression
Peasants, the peripheries of the Soviet rule project
and the Ukrainian way of life, language and culture. The whole of Ukraine was affected by hunger and repression, not just its grain-producing regions.
From today's perspective, this means that there is a historical-political classification as
near genocide. The German Bundestag shares such a classification.
In absolute terms, Ukrainians were hit the hardest
affected by the famine politically caused by the Soviet leadership. Also, late-made reductions in the amounts of required grain levies were not applied to Ukraine. Nevertheless died
Millions of people at this time in other areas of the Soviet Union as a result
politically induced famines. It is estimated that up to two million people died in Kazakhstan. hundreds of thousands more
Deaths from starvation due to forced requisitions were mainly along the rivers
Volga and Don on the territory of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic.
The Holodomor falls into a period most massive in its ferocity up until then
unimaginable crimes against humanity on the European continent. These include the Holocaust of European Jews in its historical singularity, the war crimes of the Wehrmacht and the planned one
Murder of millions of innocent civilians in the framework
of the racist German war of annihilation in the east, for which Germany
historical responsibility. Places like Wola, Babyn Yar or Leningrad are available
for these countless crimes. The German Bundestag heads from Germanys
own past a special responsibility to identify and deal with crimes against humanity within the international community.
Ukraine had under two for much of the past century
to suffer from totalitarian systems. It was a victim of the Hitler-Stalin Pact - the criminal, military division of Eastern Europe between two self-proclaimed great powers - and from 1941 it was the scene of German wars
crimes against humanity in World War II.
The Holodomor was systematically denied and taboo in the Soviet Union,
his mention made a punishable offense. The suppression of information
about the starvation began while it was taking place. Death books were destroyed, critical officials removed, regions cordoned off and journalists banned from traveling to affected regions. In many
European states, there were definitely diplomatic reports and isolated press reports about widespread hunger in the Soviet Union. However, they closed their eyes, especially since they were importing the cheap grain from the
Soviet Union benefited.
At the beginning of the 1980s, Soviet representatives still denied the Holodomor
before the United Nations General Assembly. It was decades before
by the Soviet leadership under party leader Mikhail Gorbachev
Under the glasnost policy it was admitted that there was a "famine" in the
Ukraine had given, archives were opened and reports could spread openly.
While scientists in Ukraine have long been
researching the Holodomor and thus promoting the confrontation with this crime and its processing, forces the authoritarian state leadership in
Russia under Vladimir Putin an ideologized history politics, the one
Dealing with Stalinist crimes, including the Holodomor, prevented. The closure of the human and civil rights organization Memorial International, which was ordered by a court at the end of 2021. with the processing
dealing with Soviet crimes underscores the revisionist ideologization of Russian historical policy.

The German Bundestag declares:
We commemorate the victims of the Holodomor. For Ukraine, the Holodomor is a
deeply traumatic, cruel and painful chapter of their own history.
The Holodomor shapes the national consciousness of this large, European
country that has detached itself from the Soviet past. Ukraine has
made its way into the European Union in recent years and
June 2022 received candidate status. The Holodomor is part of our common history as Europeans. He joins the list
inhumane crimes of totalitarian systems, in the course of which above all
Millions of lives were wiped out in Europe in the first half of the 20th century. Against this background and in view of our own past, we see it as our responsibility to spread knowledge about this crime against humanity and to promote the necessary further processing of it. This also includes the creation of a European public for the
topic of the Holodomor in order to raise European awareness of its background. More than ever we are stepping out in these days of Russia's illegal war of aggression against Ukraine, which at the same time was an attack
to our European order of peace and values, that for
Striving for a great power and oppression must no longer be allowed in Europe.

The German Bundestag calls on the Federal Government to
1. to continue to support the memory of the victims of the Holodomor and its international publicity politically - e.g. through various educational offers;
2. Continue to firmly oppose any attempts to launch one-sided Russian historical narratives;
3. On all occasions, a self-reflective and mindful perspective on our eastern neighborhood and its changing and
promote complex history to local historical experiences
to perceive and to illuminate blind spots in the German perspective on our common European history;
4. Ukraine as a victim of Russia's war of aggression, which violates international law, and Vladimir Putin's imperialist policies within the framework of the
available budgetary resources continue to be political, financial,
humanitarian and military support.
 
Last edited:

Veliladon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,565
At some point untrained troops will become dominant and thus largely exhaust Russia's offensive potential. But then that still creates a difficult situation for Ukraine in trying to break defensive lines where the less trained mobilized troops are going to be much more effective defenders than offensive players simply by the nature of how defense works.

if this was 2 million men with AKs in front of Moscow fighting a total war of survival for the motherland I'd agree. But it's a demoralized force with no reason to be there. They have no artillery left to duel with because all the barrels are all shot to shit and the NATO workshops are doubling as UAF maintenance facilities keeping UA equipment in much better shape.
 

cyrribrae

Chicken Chaser
Member
Jan 21, 2019
12,723
That's basically been the big argument about the Holodomor as an academic subject for decades. There's a couple differing flavours, but the boiler plate answers are:
A) The Soviet Union at large was suffering famine in the late 30s, particularly on frontier republics, and so the Holodomor is merely a regional reflection of that
B) While the Holodomor was specific to Ukraine, it wasn't done with motive towards the Ukrainian people, as it was they - particularly Kulaks - were the acceptable collateral of Stalin's grain control policies. Whether or not this is genocide is then a secondary argument
C) The holodomor was done with knowing, if not deliberate, understanding of its impact upon the Ukrainian population, especially the kulaks, and is thus genocide

Plug the term into Jstor and you'll find a smattering of samples

Edit: I would say that B has for a while been the most likely position you would see people take, but the last decade or so has seen a distinct shift towards its recognition as a genocide, if not an outright embrace of C - the war has very much accelerated that
Interesting (and part of a long chain of tragedy). Thanks for laying that out.
 

JonnyDBrit

God and Anime
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,099
Interesting (and part of a long chain of tragedy). Thanks for laying that out.

Minor typo I made now corrected - it was the front half of the 30s - but... yeah, this is basically the big black mark that hangs over the Soviet Union, even amidst all its other atrocities, and is something of a de facto litmus test for how people view it as a greater political entity. Since, well, those wanting it to have been ideal or an at worst 'flawed' entity will try to obfuscate and handwave it. Those who have the very idea of it in their crosshairs will jump straight at it as a way of showing how evil the Soviet Union could be
 

Boondocks

Member
Nov 30, 2020
2,689
NE Georgia USA
Bad news for Ukrainians, is it war profiteering? Elon Musk needs money since Twitter has decreased revenues.

Starlink prices in Ukraine nearly double as mobile networks falter

The list prices of Starlink communications devices have nearly doubled in Ukraine, as mobile networks have started failing under Russia's assault on the country's electricity grid and increased demand for the SpaceX-manufactured satellite communication device.

Starlink terminals, which are made by Elon Musk-owned SpaceX, will increase in price to $700 for new Ukrainian consumers, according to the company's website. This represents a rise from about $385 earlier this year, screenshots of past pricing data shared by users inside the country show.

The consumer cost of the monthly subscription to Starlink has fluctuated recently, dropping from about $100 to $60 on Ukraine's Independence day on August 24 to "reflect local market conditions," and will now rise to $75.

Prices have also soared in neighboring Poland, where many Ukrainians source Starlink to avoid problems with domestic mail delivery, but remained the same in Slovakia and most other European countries.

Musk did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

arstechnica.com

Starlink prices in Ukraine nearly double as mobile networks falter

Russian assault on electricity grid drives Starlink prices up.
 

deathkiller

Member
Apr 11, 2018
937
I just know that the USSR collected the grain from Ukrainian lands to feed mostly other regions, while some Ukrainians were denied to leave their region.
As your quote mentions the grain was also exported to other countries to make money to purchase machinery. The USSR being a net exporter of food during a famine was a political decision.

I think that this video does a good job explaining what happened https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dy7Mrqy1AY
 

Mentalist

Member
Mar 14, 2019
18,248
That's basically been the big argument about the Holodomor as an academic subject for decades. There's a couple differing flavours, but the boiler plate answers are:
A) The Soviet Union at large was suffering famine in the early 30s, particularly on frontier republics, and so the Holodomor is merely a regional reflection of that
B) While the Holodomor was specific to Ukraine, it wasn't done with motive towards the Ukrainian people, as it was they - particularly Kulaks - were the acceptable collateral of Stalin's grain control policies. Whether or not this is genocide is then a secondary argument
C) The holodomor was done with knowing, if not deliberate, understanding of its impact upon the Ukrainian population, especially the kulaks, and is thus genocide

Plug the term into Jstor and you'll find a smattering of samples

Edit: I would say that B has for a while been the most likely position you would see people take, but the last decade or so has seen a distinct shift towards its recognition as a genocide, if not an outright embrace of C - the war has very much accelerated that

Interesting (and part of a long chain of tragedy). Thanks for laying that out.

The portions of Snyder's "Bloodlands" that are dedicated to the Holodomor raise several points that separate the Ukrainian famine from the chain of famines that occurred in other regions- only some of which were linked to collectivization.

1) First and foremost, Ukraine did not suffer from a bad harvest, as was the case in the Volga region. The subsequent famine in Kuban was also linked to collectivization/requisitions and (shock) mostly affected the agrarian districts with a heavy Ukrainian-speaking population. Prior to the Civil War, the Kuban Oblast (modern day Krasnodar Krai) had a mixed population with a slight Ukrainian-speaking majority- especially pronounced in the western NW part of the region, around the Azov Sea and the N bank of the Kuban' River. Now Ukrainians are a demographic footnote, and Ukrainian is taught in Krasnodar University as "balachka", which is described as a " Cossack South Russian dialect". But since we don't talk about territorial claims, the disappearance/assimilation the millions of Ukrainians on the other side of the UkrSSR's border is typically something swept under the rug.
2) The order for draconic requisition quotas was a response to previous acts of mass sabotage and protests by land-owning peasants. This was accompanied by the mass hysteria about "Polish agents" and a witch hunt against such agents and their Ukrainian nationalist underlings. These were blamed for the poor results that led to increased quotas.
3) The measures against the Ukrainian peasantry coincided with the abrupt ending of the policy of Korenizatsiya - aka, "nativization" where during the NEP years, Bolsheviks promoted local ethnic minority personnel to senior party positions within national republics/autonomous republics/oblasts/okrugs and promoted local languages and culture, as long as they were "ideologically appropriate". The flowering of Ukrainian culture that was described as the "executed Renaissance" was abruptly ended. Most of the prominent Ukrainian Bolshevik authors, artists, playwrights were arrested and executed. Mykola Skrypnyk, the National Bolshevik Commissar in charge of education (and the author of the alphabet) was accused of treason and shot himself rather than be arrested; Ukrainian bandurists- travelling minstrels playing the Kobza and Bandura, traditional Cossack instruments, who were repositories of many oral folklore traditions were rounded up for a "congress" in Kharkiv and then executed;
4) In addition to simply carrying out excess requisition, Stalin also took insane measures to cover up his crime/negligence/oversight. The orders that permitted peasants to leave their villages (that had no food), as well as specific measures to round up escaped children in the cities - and send them back to the villages to starve make this more than "just" criminal negligence.

Fun fact: the man who came up with the legal concept of genocide was a Jew born and raised in L'viv. He had first-hand experiences speaking with the Holodomor survivors who made it west of Zbruch into Poland, and it were these descriptions of deliberate and targeted extermination that first drove him to come up with the concept. In the aftermath of WW2, when the definition was to be codified, it originally intended to include economic class as a group criteria. But Stalin insisted that this be included, and the Allies agreed. Three guesses as to why Stalin was so keen on that?
 

cyrribrae

Chicken Chaser
Member
Jan 21, 2019
12,723
The portions of Snyder's "Bloodlands" that are dedicated to the Holodomor raise several points that separate the Ukrainian famine from the chain of famines that occurred in other regions- only some of which were linked to collectivization.

1) First and foremost, Ukraine did not suffer from a bad harvest, as was the case in the Volga region. The subsequent famine in Kuban was also linked to collectivization/requisitions and (shock) mostly affected the agrarian districts with a heavy Ukrainian-speaking population. Prior to the Civil War, the Kuban Oblast (modern day Krasnodar Krai) had a mixed population with a slight Ukrainian-speaking majority- especially pronounced in the western NW part of the region, around the Azov Sea and the N bank of the Kuban' River. Now Ukrainians are a demographic footnote, and Ukrainian is taught in Krasnodar University as "balachka", which is described as a " Cossack South Russian dialect". But since we don't talk about territorial claims, the disappearance/assimilation the millions of Ukrainians on the other side of the UkrSSR's border is typically something swept under the rug.
2) The order for draconic requisition quotas was a response to previous acts of mass sabotage and protests by land-owning peasants. This was accompanied by the mass hysteria about "Polish agents" and a witch hunt against such agents and their Ukrainian nationalist underlings. These were blamed for the poor results that led to increased quotas.
3) The measures against the Ukrainian peasantry coincided with the abrupt ending of the policy of Korenizatsiya - aka, "nativization" where during the NEP years, Bolsheviks promoted local ethnic minority personnel to senior party positions within national republics/autonomous republics/oblasts/okrugs and promoted local languages and culture, as long as they were "ideologically appropriate". The flowering of Ukrainian culture that was described as the "executed Renaissance" was abruptly ended. Most of the prominent Ukrainian Bolshevik authors, artists, playwrights were arrested and executed. Mykola Skrypnyk, the National Bolshevik Commissar in charge of education (and the author of the alphabet) was accused of treason and shot himself rather than be arrested; Ukrainian bandurists- travelling minstrels playing the Kobza and Bandura, traditional Cossack instruments, who were repositories of many oral folklore traditions were rounded up for a "congress" in Kharkiv and then executed;
4) In addition to simply carrying out excess requisition, Stalin also took insane measures to cover up his crime/negligence/oversight. The orders that permitted peasants to leave their villages (that had no food), as well as specific measures to round up escaped children in the cities - and send them back to the villages to starve make this more than "just" criminal negligence.

Fun fact: the man who came up with the legal concept of genocide was a Jew born and raised in L'viv. He had first-hand experiences speaking with the Holodomor survivors who made it west of Zbruch into Poland, and it were these descriptions of deliberate and targeted extermination that first drove him to come up with the concept. In the aftermath of WW2, when the definition was to be codified, it originally intended to include economic class as a group criteria. But Stalin insisted that this be included, and the Allies agreed. Three guesses as to why Stalin was so keen on that?
Thanks for the context, pretty damning arguments. Sad to see that rounding up fleeing Ukrainian children and (an almost gleeful) crushing of non-Russian culture continues to be a recurring theme in Russia-Ukrainian history. Oh and crimes against grain, too. And the blaming of Ukrainian nationalists for Soviet/Russian failures. huh :/

As your quote mentions the grain was also exported to other countries to make money to purchase machinery. The USSR being a net exporter of food during a famine was a political decision.

I think that this video does a good job explaining what happened https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dy7Mrqy1AY
Woah they exported grain in a famine?? :/
 

EagleClaw

Member
Dec 31, 2018
10,949
As your quote mentions the grain was also exported to other countries to make money to purchase machinery. The USSR being a net exporter of food during a famine was a political decision.

I think that this video does a good job explaining what happened https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dy7Mrqy1AY

Yes, USSR even exported grain during the famine.

The motion was carried just now, with abstention of the left (Linke) and far-right (AfD).

The abstentions aren't a surprise, but they had also an easy explanation because the motion about the historic genocide included the current war against Ukraine.
Personally i would say that wasn't necessary, it should have just been about the historic genocide.
Conclusions to today politics should have been seperated.
I see that as a mistake.
 

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,177
First threat of twitter ban in the EU, which may have an effect on some of our favorites such as wartranslated. Sure some may use VPN's and similar but it is going to be the beginning of the end using Twitter as a source.

www.reuters.com

EU warns Musk that Twitter faces ban over content moderation -FT

The European Union has threatened Elon Musk's Twitter with a ban unless the billionaire abides by its strict rules on content moderation, setting up a regulatory battle over the future of the social media platform, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday.
 

Carn

Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,018
The Netherlands
First threat of twitter ban in the EU, which may have an effect on some of our favorites such as wartranslated. Sure some may use VPN's and similar but it is going to be the beginning of the end using Twitter as a source.

www.reuters.com

EU warns Musk that Twitter faces ban over content moderation -FT

The European Union has threatened Elon Musk's Twitter with a ban unless the billionaire abides by its strict rules on content moderation, setting up a regulatory battle over the future of the social media platform, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday.

That independent audit has to be done "by next year" so whatever happens; this will take a while.
 

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,177
That independent audit has to be done "by next year" so whatever happens; this will take a while.
True, but it also isn't clear if that means Jan 1st or Dec 31st, but I'd imagine sooner or later if content gets extreme quickly. However, you could also see Elon do something more drastic and say, fine we're leaving even earlier based on his latest responses to other issues.

In other news, "let them fight' continues with Wagner hammering on the (lack of) Russian MoD modernization:


View: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1597987189992067073