Leo-Tyrant

Member
Jan 14, 2019
5,341
San Jose, Costa Rica
il-76s are huge planes someone would've posted pictures or videos of such a huge wreckage

Yeah, they are "Metal Gear Solid 3 cold war aesthetics" - big, we should have seen something. Water crash could hide the wreckage I suppose.

IL-76MD_-_TankBiathlon2013_%28modified%29.jpg
 

thewienke

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,023
Moldova is a weird duck. It's very, very gradually shifting towards foreseeably being united with Romania at some point in the future. Obviously Transnistria is against that as they're not Romanian.

It's a bit concerning because of the general kinship between Moldova and Romania with the latter being a NATO member. I'm not sure what the Anglophone comparison would be - maybe Australia and New Zealand?
 

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
30,046


They've been losing quite a bit of their SU-34s. If you only count operational units that should be well above 10-15% of their stockpile
 

shiba5

I shed
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
16,567
Still have yet to see:
Super jet
Super .50 cal bullet stopping body armored Orcs
Super tank
Japanese torpedo boats
 

steejee

Member
Oct 28, 2017
9,443


They've been losing quite a bit of their SU-34s. If you only count operational units that should be well above 10-15% of their stockpile


That number gives a lot of credence to the articles/posts/whatever way back that went into the Russians arming their Gen 4/5 aircraft with dumb munitions because they don't have sufficient smart munitions to arm them, which is resulting in these rather new and expensive jets having to be WAY closer to the ground and their targets than is wise.
 
Oct 27, 2017
46,587
Seattle
Moldova is a weird duck. It's very, very gradually shifting towards foreseeably being united with Romania at some point in the future. Obviously Transnistria is against that as they're not Romanian.

It's a bit concerning because of the general kinship between Moldova and Romania with the latter being a NATO member. I'm not sure what the Anglophone comparison would be - maybe Australia and New Zealand?

Interesting to note, If Moldova was to unify with ROmania, they would not need to apply for NATO membership.
 

NihonTiger

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,609
Moldova is a weird duck. It's very, very gradually shifting towards foreseeably being united with Romania at some point in the future. Obviously Transnistria is against that as they're not Romanian.

It's a bit concerning because of the general kinship between Moldova and Romania with the latter being a NATO member. I'm not sure what the Anglophone comparison would be - maybe Australia and New Zealand?

You also have other minority groups inside Moldova besides the Russians who are pro-Russian because they see Putin and friends as a possible safeguard for their ethnic groups. In particular, the Gagauz people, for whom the Russian Empire was a historical ally and friend.

Though if Moldova does merge with Romania, Gagauzia would automatically have the right to self-determination, per 1994 laws passed by the Moldovan parliament.
 

EagleClaw

Member
Dec 31, 2018
12,096
Bulgaria will also be cut off from russian gas





Would be wild if they really cut now everyone off.
I believe it will bring the Euro under 1$, and really bring down the european heavy industry.
But some people say it will just cost Germany some Euros.
Maybe it is time to see what really happens...
 
Oct 30, 2017
2,377
Those anti-drone guns are probably the tip of the iceberg in terms of weird experimental stuff that's likely finding its way into the hands of UA forces for field testing.
 

Karlinel

Prophet of Truth
Banned
Nov 10, 2017
7,826
Mallorca, Spain
I wonder if there is any reliable estimate on how much has the war costed to Russia, in $/€ in terms of equipment and lost revenue.
Congrats on nice aim, UAF!
 

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,325
I wonder if there is any reliable estimate on how much has the war costed to Russia, in $/€ in terms of equipment and lost revenue.
Congrats on nice aim, UAF!
150 to 300 Billion in GDP by years end (if not more)
Probably 10s of Billions in lost hardware
10s of Billions in overall war costs, if not over 100 Billion

Maybe a half to 3/4 of a trillion by years end.

Unfortunately, Ukraine is probably over a trillion in infrastructure damage alone, so they have suffered an even heavier cost so far.
 

GrantDaNasty

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,361
So Russia is cutting the gas off to Bulgaria and Poland.


While I know business dealings usually take quite a bit of time, were there ever any guarantees the pipeline wouldn't be shut off since March?

Surely everyone was aware Russia would use that for leverage, so is this just official confirmation, or will it be a big shock?
 

Cosmonaut X

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,078


They've been losing quite a bit of their SU-34s. If you only count operational units that should be well above 10-15% of their stockpile


They had 131 Su-34s as of December last year, but I would be surprised if half of those were usable at any one time. For example, the RAF have a fleet of over 130 Typhoons, but at least 30 of those have been retired, stored or reduced to produce (broken down to parts to maintain the fleet) and of the remaining airframes a percentage won't be available on a day-to-day basis due to maintenance issues, minimising airframe fatigue etc.

I'd expect Russia to have somewhere around half of those 131 aircraft available for operations, in which case the total loss of at least 9 aircraft will be a pretty significant blow (and there may be further significant degrading of the fleet through airframe damage, like the engine damage recorded on a Russian Su-25 post-action a few weeks back). That doesn't even get into the issue of loss of qualified aircrew, as each Su-34 downed means Russia possibly losing two aircrew, either KIA or captured (I don't think they are running rapid extractions for downed pilots, so I think it's reasonable to assume each airframe lost means the loss of the crew too)
 

iksenpets

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,190
Dallas, TX
While I know business dealings usually take quite a bit of time, were there ever any guarantees the pipeline wouldn't be shut off since March?

Surely everyone was aware Russia would use that for leverage, so is this just official confirmation, or will it be a big shock?

Seems like Russia is kind of minimizing their leverage by going after European gas for heating homes… in late April. Even if they're not all the way ready for it, they're past the point where it would be potentially deadly, and have a solid five-to-six months to work things out before temps get too low again. I'm sure there will be some pain, but if you're going to have to suffer gas shortages, this seems pretty much best case scenario for how to do it. Two months of prep time from the start of the war, and the actual cutoff only coming as your need for gas starts to fall off for the next few months.
 

Ostron

Member
Mar 23, 2019
2,101
While I know business dealings usually take quite a bit of time, were there ever any guarantees the pipeline wouldn't be shut off since March?

Surely everyone was aware Russia would use that for leverage, so is this just official confirmation, or will it be a big shock?
I find it hard to believe that this comes as a surprise. To me it looks more like a signal/threat to Germany in order to see what the reaction is. Both parties are dependent on gas flow, Russia has backed away from threats before so I wouldn't be surprised if they back down or don't take it further here as well.

Timing is also curios, the impact on buyers is lessened in the sense that heating is less of an issue, at the same time the economic damage will also be less now since demand is dropping alongside warmer weather. It shows, to me at least, that Russia is unwilling to go all out with this economic weapon because they are hurting themselves.
 

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,325
They had 131 Su-34s as of December last year, but I would be surprised if half of those were usable at any one time. For example, the RAF have a fleet of over 130 Typhoons, but at least 30 of those have been retired, stored or reduced to produce (broken down to parts to maintain the fleet) and of the remaining airframes a percentage won't be available on a day-to-day basis due to maintenance issues, minimising airframe fatigue etc.

I'd expect Russia to have somewhere around half of those 131 aircraft available for operations, in which case the total loss of at least 9 aircraft will be a pretty significant blow (and there may be further significant degrading of the fleet through airframe damage, like the engine damage recorded on a Russian Su-25 post-action a few weeks back). That doesn't even get into the issue of loss of qualified aircrew, as each Su-34 downed means Russia possibly losing two aircrew, either KIA or captured (I don't think they are running rapid extractions for downed pilots, so I think it's reasonable to assume each airframe lost means the loss of the crew too)
There have been pictures of MI-8s attempting pilot extractions. That said, some of these areas are very hostile and there have been numerous MI-8 shootdowns as well. Just imagine being a pilot, ejecting, getting rescued, then killed by another MANPAD in the rescue helicopter.
 

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
30,046
They had 131 Su-34s as of December last year, but I would be surprised if half of those were usable at any one time. For example, the RAF have a fleet of over 130 Typhoons, but at least 30 of those have been retired, stored or reduced to produce (broken down to parts to maintain the fleet) and of the remaining airframes a percentage won't be available on a day-to-day basis due to maintenance issues, minimising airframe fatigue etc.

I'd expect Russia to have somewhere around half of those 131 aircraft available for operations, in which case the total loss of at least 9 aircraft will be a pretty significant blow (and there may be further significant degrading of the fleet through airframe damage, like the engine damage recorded on a Russian Su-25 post-action a few weeks back). That doesn't even get into the issue of loss of qualified aircrew, as each Su-34 downed means Russia possibly losing two aircrew, either KIA or captured (I don't think they are running rapid extractions for downed pilots, so I think it's reasonable to assume each airframe lost means the loss of the crew too)
They started flying helicopters to crash sites in the past days to rescue pilots from what i have seen but of course flying helicopters into areas with active MANPADs opens you up to losing even more pilots.
 

EagleClaw

Member
Dec 31, 2018
12,096
Germany has agreed to supply Ukraine with tanks, UK could follow, these are very interesting developments.

Those tanks are anti-aircraft guns and are seen as a defensive weapon in Germany.
But yes, those are the first heavy weapons from the german industry that got green lit.

I hope tanks will follow, but there is still that sentiment between defensive and offensive weapons.
It might be the new statement from Scholz.

Of course those AA guns can also shoot at other tanks, and not just shoot to the sky.

But the really good news is, those AA guns were really highly asked from Ukraine.
They have radar and can bring down missiles, aircrafts and drones.