Not a mainline entry though, its more of a Go themed side game
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[Post-Direct] Do you still think Nintendo can sell 20M Switches this (fiscal) year?
- Thread starter Slam Tilt
- Start date
Not a mainline entry though, its more of a Go themed side game
I think people are underselling how big Let's Go is going to be. As we have seen the recent growth of pokemon go and more interest in it. Let's Go will move switch units.
Plus you have smash with the exclusive bundle
Plus you have smash with the exclusive bundle
nah bro, I agree with your Q3 but Q4 will be 4M. To end off at a total of 20.5M
I say no
I was confident before the year started but the lineup isn't there for it. Let's Go is not tracking particularly great so while it will still move a lot of units, it won't move to the level they need to in order to hit that 20mil number. Smash will break records but those 2 games are not enough
I don't think the NSMBU port will make a significant dent in hardware. I'm sure people will quote me on it but that's the feeling I'm getting. A new game would've been different
I say the will just barely miss though. Like 18mil+
I was confident before the year started but the lineup isn't there for it. Let's Go is not tracking particularly great so while it will still move a lot of units, it won't move to the level they need to in order to hit that 20mil number. Smash will break records but those 2 games are not enough
I don't think the NSMBU port will make a significant dent in hardware. I'm sure people will quote me on it but that's the feeling I'm getting. A new game would've been different
I say the will just barely miss though. Like 18mil+
One final direct blowout before black friday should do it, like maybe a week or two in advance from Black Friday, announce big hitters and reveals. Smash Demo that week or Bayo 3 and Metroid Prime 4 footage and release dates.
I see it hitting 20 or close to it.
I see it hitting 20 or close to it.
Except for the fact that Pokemon remakes generally sell less than the core entries. So "who knows" is a fair assessment.
Smash and a Pokemon-lite aside, their lineup is thin this year. Wii U thin.
People seem to miss a big, big reason the Switch started out as such a success right out the gate is that Nintendo lined up all of its software to make that thing appealing. Like sure, the core concept gets praise for a reason (even if people pin more on it than it deserves), but would that thing have sold as well as it did if it didn't have Zelda at launch? Or if it didn't have Odyssey in the fall?
I don't know where they're currently at out of that 20M. If they're aiming at that number, they probably have metrics backing that up, saying that they're on-track to hit it, probably off of the back of all those people who come out of the woodwork to buy Pokemon. But if they need to overperform compared to last year? Eh.
Edit: Also, fwiw, almost nobody contributing to getting Nintendo over that milestone gives a shit about the online. The only people who care enough to pay for online on a Nintendo console are diehards, who mostly probably already own a Switch.
People seem to miss a big, big reason the Switch started out as such a success right out the gate is that Nintendo lined up all of its software to make that thing appealing. Like sure, the core concept gets praise for a reason (even if people pin more on it than it deserves), but would that thing have sold as well as it did if it didn't have Zelda at launch? Or if it didn't have Odyssey in the fall?
I don't know where they're currently at out of that 20M. If they're aiming at that number, they probably have metrics backing that up, saying that they're on-track to hit it, probably off of the back of all those people who come out of the woodwork to buy Pokemon. But if they need to overperform compared to last year? Eh.
Edit: Also, fwiw, almost nobody contributing to getting Nintendo over that milestone gives a shit about the online. The only people who care enough to pay for online on a Nintendo console are diehards, who mostly probably already own a Switch.
You listed two huge titles that require online above and then are wondering who would buy the online service?
Answer - anyone who wants to play Mario Kart, Splatoon, Pokémon and Smash online. That's a lot of people.
No idea if they meet their numbers but it will be fairly close either way I would think. I don't know why people bring up NSMBU as a big system seller though. Game is going to sell to system owners, sure, but are there really a lot of people out there that were waiting for a 2D Mario port where it would get them to buy a Switch?
Before E3, they would hit it with Smash & Pokémon. After E3, they would hit it with Smash, Pokémon, and Mario Party. Today, they'll hit it with Smash, Pokémon, Mario Party, and 2D Mario.
Pokémon is a mainline entry. It's also being heavily marketed just like any other mainline entry. Nothing has changed in that regard.
I'm sure they'll get close no matter what and if they look like they'll miss it barely they'll probably move Fire Emblem to March to guarantee they hit it. It's not that big of a seller but it attracts a specific demographic that can be the difference between 19 and 20 million.
They selling a Pokémon game that is built to accompany one of the Biggest Pokémon titles of the series entire life. And also selling a new Super Smash Bros plus a Mario game. If those can't move 20 million units in our timeframe. No other combo could.
Nintendo Ran last year October to this year march, all on hte back of Mario O. with MArio O spear head sold 10M Switch in that frame time.
this year they have for teh same time frame. MArio Party, Pokemon NOT LG, Smash, Mario 2D, and you call that thin? hell, they are basically going 1:1 with last year so far.
Last year Switch was by far the best selling console in December, and that was with stock issues. This year they don't have that issue and a much better Holiday line-up. Sony might sell better in November if you include Black Friday here but there is no doubt to me Nintendo will come out on top if you combine November + December.
Hell, Matt from NPD is still predicting Switch selling the most of all consoles this year in US almost solely due to the holiday push.
PS4 best Holiday so far is 9.7M. at the current pace, Switch will need about 11-12M this Holiday, you believe PS4 will sell more than that??
also iirc at 12M, that will be Nintendo best holiday ever for 1 hardware
Yep also Pokemon really pushing their competitive fanbase to the side is also going to hurt them.
What is the Switch at atm? The library's there (or will be once Pokemon, Smash, new Super Mario, Mario Party and Diablo are on it), I just worry whether the pricing is aggressive enough. Sony and MS will be going extremely hard to move PS4s (buoyed by Spiderman) and One Xs (carried by Forza Horizon 4 and Gamepass), and unlike Switch they have the two biggest games of the year in RDR2 and Black Ops 4.
if number keep 1:1, they should be around 5M
also Smash is like outsell RDR2
Depends what they do during holiday quarter.
I'm sorry, what? I will literally bet you 50,000 USD because I'm so confident that you're wrong with this take that I'll lose nothing. I would sign a legapll binding contract with you on this wager I'm so confident that this is an impossibility.
I'm sorry, what? I will literally bet you 50,000 USD because I'm so confident that you're wrong with this take that I'll lose nothing. I would sign a legapll binding contract with you on this wager I'm so confident that this is an impossibility.
I see.
Though no way in hell does Smash outsell RDR2. RDR1 sold as much as Brawl (the entry with the highest sales in the entire Smash series), despite being a previously unheard of/niche IP. Red Dead is now an iconic brand in video games, and Rockstar have penetrated pop-culture and casual markets to a degree never seen before. Today they represent arguably the biggest most vaunted game studio ever. RDR2 is going to move 15m comfortably, handily outselling Smash 4 across 3ds and Wii U (and I also disagree that Smash Ultimate will outsell combined Smash 4 sales/15m. Smash does well, but it isn't Mario Kart/Pokemon/2D Mario), and that's before they inevitably release it on PC in a year's time and hit the double-dip. I wouldn't be shocked to see RDR2 hit 25m this generation.
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How many Pokemon GO fans do you think are going to drop $365-$400 ?
No I think they will miss it closely. I wish they miss it actually, as this year has been mostly comfortable cruising.
They may do 20 millions in 2019, with a beefier lineup that doesn't forget there's 12 months in a year.
They may do 20 millions in 2019, with a beefier lineup that doesn't forget there's 12 months in a year.
it took RDR 1 7 years to ship 15M units, Smash 4 (3DS and WiiU) did 14.6 in like 4 years.
Smash U is shaping to break that number while RDR2 will have to fight for October sales with CoD IIII
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Last year they sold about 10m off the strength of Mario Odyssey.
This year they have for the same period of time:
Smash Ultimate, which as a smash game tends to sell as good or better than a 3D Mario. Yes MO was a super good entry in the 3D mario line, but Smash Ultimate is looking to do the same for Smash.
Pokemon Lets Go, which is a pokemon game, and no matter how much out of touch internet forum dwellers want it to fail, its gonna sell 10+ million units, and bring in many younger people into the Switch ecosystem.
There is a reason Pokemon Go makes 2.5 million dollars a day.
Super Mario Party, which is more than a match for one of the only 2 other Nintendo games from FY Q3/4 2017, and i say that as somebody who picked Xenoblade as my GOTY.
Equally, NSMBUD(isnt that the greatest name, NSM BUDDY) is gonna move way more than Kirby, because it is a game with Mario on the Box, and because 2D Mario is one of the strongest franchises Nintendo has to offer and because it releases in January and has thus almost all of Q4 to sell compared to Kirby which had like 2 weeks.
Remember, the two games bundled in this version both sold 5m each on the failed WiiU, so this bundle will do very well, especially with parents who can now give their kids characters that cant die.
Then there is Third Party support, which is imo better this year than last year, mostly because there is more variety and more quantity.
Darksouls and Civilisation 6 for the west, Yokai Watch 4 in Japan, Trials in February, Starlink in October are essentialy already more big Third Party games than what Switch got last year in the same timeframe.
Then there is the fact that unlike what some people think, games dont become nonexistant a month after release.
Mario Odyssey, Splatoon 2 , Zelda BOTW and MK8DX will still exist, and still push hardware. It might be less than last year, but they will still move the needle.
Then there is the absolute wildcard that is Labo, which could either do as Nintendo and many analysts think and have a big Holiday, or it could completely flatline and fulfill the wishes of the grumpy Internet Forum people who hate anything that is not specifically tailored to them.
This year they have for the same period of time:
Smash Ultimate, which as a smash game tends to sell as good or better than a 3D Mario. Yes MO was a super good entry in the 3D mario line, but Smash Ultimate is looking to do the same for Smash.
Pokemon Lets Go, which is a pokemon game, and no matter how much out of touch internet forum dwellers want it to fail, its gonna sell 10+ million units, and bring in many younger people into the Switch ecosystem.
There is a reason Pokemon Go makes 2.5 million dollars a day.
Super Mario Party, which is more than a match for one of the only 2 other Nintendo games from FY Q3/4 2017, and i say that as somebody who picked Xenoblade as my GOTY.
Equally, NSMBUD(isnt that the greatest name, NSM BUDDY) is gonna move way more than Kirby, because it is a game with Mario on the Box, and because 2D Mario is one of the strongest franchises Nintendo has to offer and because it releases in January and has thus almost all of Q4 to sell compared to Kirby which had like 2 weeks.
Remember, the two games bundled in this version both sold 5m each on the failed WiiU, so this bundle will do very well, especially with parents who can now give their kids characters that cant die.
Then there is Third Party support, which is imo better this year than last year, mostly because there is more variety and more quantity.
Darksouls and Civilisation 6 for the west, Yokai Watch 4 in Japan, Trials in February, Starlink in October are essentialy already more big Third Party games than what Switch got last year in the same timeframe.
Then there is the fact that unlike what some people think, games dont become nonexistant a month after release.
Mario Odyssey, Splatoon 2 , Zelda BOTW and MK8DX will still exist, and still push hardware. It might be less than last year, but they will still move the needle.
Then there is the absolute wildcard that is Labo, which could either do as Nintendo and many analysts think and have a big Holiday, or it could completely flatline and fulfill the wishes of the grumpy Internet Forum people who hate anything that is not specifically tailored to them.
I couldn't say for sure, but to echo others: Pokemon will move units. Between Europe, Japan and the US, the system should top 10m over the holiday period.
Can't say I'm just telling you Let's go is that big. I'd argue that the only game bigger then Go at this point is the original games. And if a game built from the group up to appeal to the huge Pokémon Go fans base can't get people to buy Switches. Along with all the other titles I mentioned. No other combo of Nintendo games would be able to do hit that 20 million goal.
RDR2 will outsell Smash on PS4, let alone including xbox sales.
You know, that will totally depends on the time frame.
During Holidays? RDR will probably sell more because of the install base. Lifetime, tho? Smash have a pretty good chance of selling more.
Smash is a huge franchise for Nintendo and always sold well, so that's not something in the realm of impossibility. I wouldn't bet 50k if I were you, lol.
My gut feeling says no. Sales have been healthy but not spectacular in Japan and NA all year. A strong holiday season is expected from Nintendo, so Mario Party, Pokemon and Smash is a great line up but there's only so much they can do. 20 million is just too high because of the lost momentum due to the underwhelming H1 line up.
You think Nintendo will be flat in FQ2 and FQ4?
FQ2 likely wont differ much but there is just no way FQ4 will be flat. It should see a big increase if anything.
In FQ4 last year SMO and with the help of the evergreens were selling systems up until Kiby released in the very last month of the fiscal year.
And that's it and they managed 3M.
Driving sales this years FQ4 are going to be Smash, Pokemon, NSMBU super duper edition, and we're likely seeing either Yoshi or Fire Emblem squared in to march as well.
And obviously the ever increasing library of evergreen titles as well. 3M would be a huge dissapointment and extremely unlikely.