My guess on Call of Duty:
- They will keep supporting COD Warzone (like TESO, Fallout 76 & Minecraft)
- Once the marketing deals will be expired, they will make the future Call of Duty games timed exclusive through Early-Access on Xbox (or for Game Pass Ultimate suscribers). Could be 1 week, 2 week, 1 month... Whatever. This worked very well for Forza Horizon 5 (although a bit different).
- or instead of early access, traditional timed exclusives (be it 3 or 6 months, or 1 full year). But I would bet on early access rather than a classic timed exclusive.
(and in addition, COD on Xbox / Game Pass receives exclusive modes, perks, etc.)
This way :
- they leverage COD as an exclusive
- and, ultimately, they also release the games on Playstation so this protects the dominance of the IP over the FPS market and prevents any competition from emerging trying to fill the void (like an hypothetical multiplat Battlefield but in partnership with Playstation, the future new IP from Respawn, or Sony's own attempt at a FPS with Deviation..)
- the largest playerbase possible means more $$$ through MTX / Store
- this doesnt disturb the synergy and health of Warzone on Playstation (that relies on the combination of F2P Warzone and paid COD games with new themed content)
I think the only thing that can be compared to Minecraft is COD Warzone. And 2014 was a very different time, Xbox was still under Windows (iirc), with no clear strategy and it was the beginning of the end for the Xbox One. + I feel it was more a Microsoft thing. They also specified in the PR that Minecraft would stay on Playstation.
At the minimum, I see some sort of exclusivity for COD (more than just modes or DLCs) but I still bet more on timed / early access rather than full exclusivity. Call of Duty is so huge that I'm not sure yet they would go fully exclusive.
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So, imo, not Minecraft but not Starfield, Fallout 5 or TES VI neither.