Shit ton of low balling in here. 140mil is easily on table. People buying PS4 in 2020 aren't interested in PS5. Different market, plus 3 big exclusives left WITH a FF7 remake? And possible $99-$149 holiday bundles down the line? PS4 can easily be the new king IF sony chooses to push for it. PS3 is a bad example because sales were dead, too expensive and all focus was on PS4. I don't think they will do this with PS5.
I see it more in the 130-135M range but we're essentially agreeing either way.PS4 is on pace for 120M-130M so I don't disagree there. There isn't going to be any notable steadiness to sales post PS5 though. It's downhill fast for 3 years, then a discontinuation at the 10-11 year mark.
PS4 will also be just as old as the PS3 when next gen launches. PS3 shipped ~4-5M after the PS4 launched, PS4 probably does ~7-9M after PS5 if we just assume PS4 has a better fall off than PS3.
I'm thinking 120M at the end of 2020, then ending somewhere in that 125M-130M range.
A lot of people seem to think that Sony is just gonna stop selling PS4's entirely within a year or so.
120 is the absolute floor and an unrealistically low final number, barring a drastic move by Sony to kill the system.
130 is a much more likely result, but still constitutes the lower end of the sales potential.
140 to 150 are the high end, but depending on the strategy that Sony adopts, these are entirely achievable and even surpasable.
I voted 120 before reading the OP.
It will get supported after the PS5 launches, I think 130 is realistic.
The point? It'll be way cheaper. But of course, people could be willing to transition faster because of PS5's BC.
Yup, exactly my reasoning - I totally agree. And another thing people seem to be forgetting (can't blame them, they're up to date with everything) is that people who are just entering the current generation have an almost embarrassingly huge amount of games to choose from, that they've missed out on and that they can find for dirt cheap.I think people are underestimating how many casual consumers aren't chomping at the bit to drop $400-$500 on a new console just because it's the latest version of a current console, and can play their old games. As always, hardcore gamers and early adopters will be flocking to the PS5 during that first year or so of release.
The casual consumers that haven't purchased a PS4 yet (and there are still plenty, because not everyone can spend over $300 on stuff), so if they aggressively price the PS4 (like sub $200), that's going to entice a lot of casuals. I know when I couldn't afford to buy game systems at launch, or because they were two expensive, $200 and less was the sweet spot for me. I could usually afford the console, and a few of the must have classics that were generally heavily discounted at that time (PS Classics were a godsend to my broke ass).
And then those casuals will buy into the PS5 when it hits their sweetspot, because they know their PS4 library will carry over to the new machine.
If Sony hits their forecast (and they've hit it or surpassed it every time without even dropping to $200) they'll be at ~112M. No way do they somehow sell less than 8M between 2020 and beyond.
Yup, exactly my reasoning - I totally agree. And another thing people seem to be forgetting (can't blame them, they're up to date with everything) is that people who are just entering the current generation have an almost embarrassingly huge amount of games to choose from, that they've missed out on and that they can find for dirt cheap.
Uncharted 4? 10 bucks. Horizon? 12 bucks. The Witcher 3? Could find that for 13 bucks as well.
Heck, and I'm not even talking about getting them used either!
They have an entire generation's worth of games to play. Waiting out is arguably smarter too... But I just can't - Getting a PS5 on launch day! 😊
I think people are underestimating how many casual consumers aren't chomping at the bit to drop $400-$500 on a new console just because it's the latest version of a current console, and can play their old games. As always, hardcore gamers and early adopters will be flocking to the PS5 during that first year or so of release.
The casual consumers that haven't purchased a PS4 yet (and there are still plenty, because not everyone can spend over $300 on stuff), so if they aggressively price the PS4 (like sub $200), that's going to entice a lot of casuals. I know when I couldn't afford to buy game systems at launch, or because they were two expensive, $200 and less was the sweet spot for me. I could usually afford the console, and a few of the must have classics that were generally heavily discounted at that time (PS Classics were a godsend to my broke ass).
And then those casuals will buy into the PS5 when it hits their sweetspot, because they know their PS4 library will carry over to the new machine.
I don't think PS2 sales are likely, but what you're describing as a "laughable prospect" is pretty much exactly what the PSone and PS2 did.As for people even suggesting PS2 numbers, they'd have to sell half of what they've sold in the past 5.5 years (years in which Sony boasted record-breaking sales, no less) to get there. When you consider current dwindling sales and the release of PS5 next year, that honestly seems like a laughable prospect.