• Light/Dark

NPD: Pokémon Expands its Console Market by Engaging Mobile ; 15% of GO players want to buy Let's Go

Bunkles

Bunkles

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
5,663
Neoxon said:
Define "better than expected", 'cause I already said where my expectations are at (which I feel are reasonable &, honestly, pretty damn good). Are we talking best-selling Pokémon game to date? That would require long legs after launch, which likely won't happen thanks to Gen 8 coming next year.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

A ton of people were hand-waving this game and putting all hopes on Smash for Switch to cross that much talked about 20 million second year sales goal. There definitely has been an underlying narrative that this Pokemon release doesn't really matter much and it's all about Gen 8.
 
Andri

Andri

Member
Mar 20, 2018
6,017
Switzerland
Neoxon said:
I expect it to sell well, I just don't expect it to hit new generation numbers. In short, I'm expecting OR/AS numbers rather than X/Y or Sun/Moon numbers, especially with Gen 8 waiting to cut Let's Go's legs short.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

If the estimates of the NPD is right and their 15% of PGO players becomes true that would be 8.25 M people in North america alone, since that is the region i assume they are covering with their estimate.
 

Mattersnotnow

Member
Jan 15, 2018
1,018
I dont think It will bomb. In fact I'm hoping It won't. I don't think any game with Pokémon in its name is capable of really bombing but my limited perception is that there aren't too many people hyped on buying it.

I don't think it will sell more than 8M ww. Is that bombing?
 
Proteus

Proteus

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,082
Toronto
I am close to picking up Pikachu. I have never been able to get into Pokemon. I think the most I played one game was about 8 hours. I like the concept but the execution always fizzled out. The changes here with no random battles seem like a huge plus. I liked the Pokemon GO mechanic of catching but I don't want to be flicking around my Switch in public. I hope the motion isn't that crazy. I also want pro controller support... :/
 
Philly Cheesesteak

Philly Cheesesteak

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,297
Dark Cloud said:
Everything will be alright. We don't need this "layout for the Pokémon future" that you're trying to push. The layout was set 20 years ago.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

What are you talking about? Game Freak already has an actual mainline Pokémon game releasing next year. If you don't think they are watching how LGE/LGP does in order to better expand their catalogue for the future, you are being silly. Weird response.
 
Bunkles

Bunkles

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
5,663
Mattersnotnow said:
I dont think It will bomb. In fact I'm hoping It won't. I don't think any game with Pokémon in its name is capable of really bombing but my limited perception is that there aren't too many people hyped on buying it.

I don't think it will sell more than 8M ww. Is that bombing?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

It's going to go well above 8M ww.
 
Raijinto

Raijinto

self-requested ban
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
10,091
Mattersnotnow said:
I dont think It will bomb. In fact I'm hoping It won't. I don't think any game with Pokémon in its name is capable of really bombing but my limited perception is that there aren't too many people hyped on buying it.

I don't think it will sell more than 8M ww. Is that bombing?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

8 million would be quite disappointing, and almost certainly won't happen.
 

darkazcura

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,134
Proteus said:
I am close to picking up Pikachu. I have never been able to get into Pokemon. I think the most I played one game was about 8 hours. I like the concept but the execution always fizzled out. The changes here with no random battles seem like a huge plus. I liked the Pokemon GO mechanic of catching but I don't want to be flicking around my Switch in public. I hope the motion isn't that crazy. I also want pro controller support... :/
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

You don't have to use motion in handheld mode.
 
Instro

Instro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,869
So 15% of the active base also plays games on a Switch, and plan to buy LG.

Another 13% plan to buy a Switch and LG.

The article says ~55 million current Go players so:

15%*55=8.25m
13%*55=7.15m

So if these people followed through, it could equate to ~15.4m units of LG sold, and ~7.15m Switches sold.

At least that's how I'm reading the article.
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Mattersnotnow said:
I dont think It will bomb. In fact I'm hoping It won't. I don't think any game with Pokémon in its name is capable of really bombing but my limited perception is that there aren't too many people hyped on buying it.

I don't think it will sell more than 8M ww. Is that bombing?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

If the numbers in the article turn out to be exactly true (which isn't gonna happen but they're probably a good baseline for speculation) this will sell over 8M in the US alone.

Instro said:
So 15% of the active base also plays games on a Switch, and plan to buy LG.

Another 13% plan to buy a Switch and LG.

The article says ~55 million current players so:

15%*55=8.25m
13%*55=7.15m

So if these people followed through, it could equate to ~15.4m units of LG sold, and ~7.15m Switches sold.

At least that's how I'm reading the article.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Also note that this is just talking about the US.
 

Wander_

Banned
Feb 26, 2018
5,552
Lozjam said:
So......
That really equates to, about 8 Million people are going to buy a Switch, just for Pokemon Let's Go.

In the US alone.

Just wow. Sales numbers are going to be through the roof because of this, and this doesn't even equate Smash with the equation. It will be really interesting if these numbers come to fruition.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

want =/= will
 
ccieag

ccieag

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
1,339
Vail, CO
There won't be a ton of preorders with non-traditional audience. They will simply expect to go in the store and buy it - I wonder if Nintendo has enough stock for that? Also, if Pokemon actually does that, Nintendo WILL reach their 20M for the year. Quite easily
 
Buddy

Buddy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,305
Germany
A coworker bought the pokemon switch bundle today just for this one game....

I think it will do all right ;)
 
Mbolibombo

Mbolibombo

Member
Oct 29, 2017
7,060
About a third of my friendlist (8/24) that's been online since it's release (US-time) has played PLG

Another 26 have yet to show their face online.
 
Bunkles

Bunkles

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
5,663
ccieag said:
There won't be a ton of preorders with non-traditional audience. They will simply expect to go in the store and buy it - I wonder if Nintendo has enough stock for that? Also, if Pokemon actually does that, Nintendo WILL reach their 20M for the year. Quite easily
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

These games are also going to kill as Christmas gifts for kids.
 
Dwebble

Dwebble

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,919
If these figures in any way reflect real spending trends, these games are going to be monstrous sellers.
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Dwebble said:
If these figures in any way reflect real spending trends, these games are going to be monstrous sellers.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Yeah if it extrapolates the same way globally this game will easily surpass 20M units, if it's indicating >15M in the US alone.

And that's just from GO players, that's not taking into account people who have not played GO.

I'm a bit wary of trusting statistics like this but if they're accurate these games have the potential to challenge R/B/Y for the best selling Pokemon games.
 
Andri

Andri

Member
Mar 20, 2018
6,017
Switzerland
Marukoban said:
I don't think people have said Let's Go will bomb. Maybe "bomb" by Pokemon standard, but Pokemon's "bomb" is something 90% of the industry wish to have reached.
The biggest question from the article is how big is this so called "active Pokemon Go playerbase"?
The only hard number the article give is 55m people have hands on experience of Pokemon Go.
I'd assume the current active playerbase is much lower than that.
Anecdotally in my country the queue for Let's Go today seems like usual Pokemon release (i.e. very long).
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

The 55m number is from this article and refers to players in the USA.

The most recent global number i remember was 144 million 3 or 4 months ago from Sensortower.
 
The Adder

The Adder

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,417
808s & Villainy said:
I'm happy for Nintendo, but feel increasingly worried as a Pokemon fan
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Worst case scenario is that you'll get a shitty regressive game for gen 9 that this same audience won't buy into and then they'll course correct for 10.

Best case scenario is they keep Let's Go as a series and put all the regressive simplification into it while continuing to expand and advance each new generational title.
 
Piston

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,726
Anecdotally, I have a friend who plays Pokemon GO pretty consistently. He got a Switch exclusively for Zelda, but he sent me a snap of Let's Go this morning as his first Pokemon game "since the originals".

Extrapolating this data, I think they have a hit on their hands!
 
Sander VF

Sander VF

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
26,782
Tbilisi, Georgia
The Adder said:
Worst case scenario is that you'll get a shitty regressive game for gen 9 that this same audience won't buy into and then they'll course correct for 10.

Best case scenario is they keep Let's Go as a series and put all the regressive simplification into it while continuing to expand and advance each new generational title.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Yeah this.

And Gen 8 won't be affected much as there is simply no time for that to happen.
 
Gotdatmoney

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,696
I'm down on Let's go but I still have it pre ordered and shipping for Monday. We'll see how it turns out for them.
 
Bonejack

Bonejack

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,654
Piston said:
Anecdotally, I have a friend who plays Pokemon GO pretty consistently. He got a Switch exclusively for Zelda, but he sent me a snap of Let's Go this morning as his first Pokemon game "since the originals".

Extrapolating this data, I think they have a hit on their hands!
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Honestly, the cross-game promotion stuff with Meltan and so on has been pretty good. Add that surprise hit that the Detective Pikachu trailer is ... i won't be surprised if this game reaches levels like the other new mainline games.
 

Marukoban

Self-requested ban
Banned
Oct 29, 2017
2,298
phanphare said:
oh man, Era's not going to be able to handle this game's success

I'm here for it tho
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Same lol.
I don't even have slightest interest in Let's Go and prefer the core entries, but I'm very much interested to see ERA meltdown.
It will be glorious on all side:
1. Nintendo fanboy scared Let's Go will replace core Pokemon series
2. Sony/XB1 console fanboy crying over Switch's sales
 

Deleted member 5167

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
3,114
It'll be interesting to see if Nintendo are capable of 'upselling' mobile gamers - a group who seem to have been mostly written off completely as being interested in 'traditional' gaming - back into a dedicated gaming system
 
808s & Villainy

808s & Villainy

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
44,227
Kinsei said:
It's Gen 9 onward that people are worried about.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Yeah. I already know Gen 8 is well on it's way and started before LG, but if this is a success I see Gamefreak incorporating more of the..."dumbing down" of features into the generational titles. That isn't to say there aren't features I want them to carry over (seeing wild pokemon, pokemon following/riding), but everything else just seems to throw away what they've done instead of actually trying to improve/streamline it
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Dr Wily said:
It'll be interesting to see if Nintendo are capable of 'upselling' mobile gamers - a group who seem to have been mostly written off completely as being interested in 'traditional' gaming - back into a dedicated gaming system
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

I guess maybe it's helpful that this big mobile game was based off of a traditional game to begin with.
 
Bonejack

Bonejack

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,654
Dr Wily said:
It'll be interesting to see if Nintendo are capable of 'upselling' mobile gamers - a group who seem to have been mostly written off completely as being interested in 'traditional' gaming - back into a dedicated gaming system
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

I think that the game to look at for this situation would be Fire Emblem 3 Houses. Pokemon is Pokemon, same thing with Animal Crossing. But looking at the revenue and playerbase Fire Emblem Heroes has, it's going to be interesting if and how much of an effect it has on next years console title.
 
JayWood2010

JayWood2010

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,120
What percent of the Pokemon Go players that are interested in buying Let's Go were already Core fans?


There will be overlap. I still stand by what I said earlier this year. Let's Go will be a big success, it well sell a lot, but not more than next generation Pokemon.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.