isn't that BS to not have flu split up into the same categories as covid-19?You can show this to those who still argue "It's just the flu":
It is crazy to me that the US still don't have infrared fever screenings at international airports.When I came back from Thailand/Taiwan on Sunday, the US customs screening was extremely lax. No heat signature test, no asking if I had been to China like Thailand and Taiwan did, I basically just walked though it like it was nothing.
US fucking up.
Not for sure what your getting at. We can absolutely compare them right now and we know for a fact that is what the death rates look like
It is crazy to me that the US still don't have infrared fever screenings at international airports.
This is something that broke ass countries manage to afford.
I have cardiovascular disease so I'm at the top end when it comes to risk. I have to be worried. Both my parents are elderly and not exactly in the best health. The fact covid19 is asymptomatic is the real worrying part. I would hate to spread it to the elderly folks like mine and accidentally end up being the cause of their death.
I'm in Seattle and there is still zero screening anywhere.I was in Thailand for a bachelor party and literally every club we went to had infrared screenings before you could come in. A major US airport not bothering to do it at all is shameful.
Stop spreading misinformation. That come from a massive study in China analyzing their cases. The WHO confirmed that there isn't mysteriously a bunch of cases out there not found as well. Stop acting like trump.No we can't. We swab so many people for the flu so the percent that die is much lower than when we are simply mainly swabbing people that are critically ill. It is also why the mortality rates seem much higher in the US compared to South Korea. South Korea is being much more liberal with testing than the US is so when there is a death in the US, the percent mortality is more affected.
Stop spreading misinformation. That come from a massive study in China analyzing their cases. The WHO confirmed that there isn't mysteriously a bunch of cases out there not found as well. Stop acting like trump.
???? 80% of the cases are mild.Then explain why the virus has been circulating in the US for 6 weeks and we only started noticing now. There are mild cases, there has to be.
Indonesia has already deployed numerous scanners at our international airports since January.It is crazy to me that the US still don't have infrared fever screenings at international airports.
This is something that broke ass countries manage to afford.
Because the CDC refused to test people? I mean it's been the top story for the past week. There were literally multiple people that died at the life care center in Kirkland before they started testing people. If you have shit testing procedures then your going to miss people spreading it.
No, the Spanish Flu did not have a kill rate of only 2%. The second wave that made it famous had a kill rate of 10-20%. There is conflicting data on this because of a paper that appears to have presented the math in a confusing way at best, if not entirely messing it up. There was a good Twitter thread linked earlier in either this thread or the previous one on it, but if you take the upper bound of estimated deaths of 50 million from the Spanish Flu and divide by the alleged kill rate of 2%, you get more than the entire world population at the time. And the virus didn't even infect 100% of the people in the world in 1918. So it can't have been as low as only 2%. (Using the lower bound of 20 million doesn't get numbers that make sense either).It's highly contagious. There is no vaccine and no immunity. It has a mortality rate above 2%. The Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of 2% and it devastated humanity, just for perspective. COVID-19 is potentially a massive, massive, massive problem.
Until recently they haven't been testing people who don't have a travel history to China (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/27/health/us-cases-coronavirus-community-transmission/index.html). At this point though there are already multiple generations of community transmission (https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/).Then explain why the virus has been circulating in the US for 6 weeks and we only started noticing now. There are mild cases, there has to be.
But you see, the US can't possibly afford it.Indonesia has already deployed numerous scanners at our international airports since January.
Well it looks like there's a presumed case now here in my town. Been nice knowing yall.
Stop spreading misinformation. That come from a massive study in China analyzing their cases. The WHO confirmed that there isn't mysteriously a bunch of cases out there not found as well. Stop acting like trump.
No, the Spanish Flu did not have a kill rate of only 2%. The second wave that made it famous had a kill rate of 10-20%. There is conflicting data on this because of a paper that appears to have presented the math in a confusing way at best, if not entirely messing it up. There was a good Twitter thread linked earlier in either this thread or the previous one on it, but if you take the upper bound of estimated deaths of 50 million from the Spanish Flu and divide by the alleged kill rate of 2%, you get more than the entire world population at the time. And the virus didn't even infect 100% of the people in the world in 1918. So it can't have been as low as only 2%. (Using the lower bound of 20 million doesn't get numbers that make sense either).
The really deadly second wave basically burned itself out by killing too many of its victims. Hopefully it doesn't come to that with COVID-19…So like....... How exactly did the Spanish flu go away? And can Covid-19 19 also go away in the same way?
I said you were acting like trump because you are. Literally making up information to downplay the situation and downplay the CFR. While it will vary from country to country and adjust over time we know for an undisputed fact that it is significantly worse than the flu. Downplaying the situation is just as bad as people panicking and literally leads to mass panic because they have been misinformed previouslywow at the hostility. What the fuck does Trump have to do with what I said. I didn't see that those numbers were based on the Chinese data. If so the numbers are probably closer to the real numbers for China but you are also comparing mortality rates in another country that was completely overwhelmed by the outbreak. The mortality rate is likely going to continue shifting as the virus continues to spread. In the US, the virus is very likely out there we just aren't testing everyone that exhibits viral symptoms.
there are many factors that affect mortality rates and it's not so easy to do a direct comparison. I still posit that we won't know the true mortality rate until the 'season' is over with. Just take a look at mortality rates of the flu by country and see how they vary.
I am not saying that people shouldn't worry, but the panic is a little out of control.
I listened to a virology lecture the other day where the professor said Spanish flu had a death rate of 2%. I think that number was derived from people who received treatment so while the actual death rate might have been 10% when comparing to the modern world maybe 2% is more accurate.No, the Spanish Flu did not have a kill rate of only 2%. The second wave that made it famous had a kill rate of 10-20%. There is conflicting data on this because of a paper that appears to have presented the math in a confusing way at best, if not entirely messing it up. There was a good Twitter thread linked earlier in either this thread or the previous one on it, but if you take the upper bound of estimated deaths of 50 million from the Spanish Flu and divide by the alleged kill rate of 2%, you get more than the entire world population at the time. And the virus didn't even infect 100% of the people in the world in 1918. So it can't have been as low as only 2%. (Using the lower bound of 20 million doesn't get numbers that make sense either).
if it doubles once every 6 days and we start with one person then after six weeks we have roughly 128 cases. that seems reasonable considering probably less than 1/3 are detected.Then explain why the virus has been circulating in the US for 6 weeks and we only started noticing now. There are mild cases, there has to be.
Man the amount of irrational fear I'm seeing about this is nuts. I remember sars being just as bad but it never went to this level. Even Ebola which I would argue is even worse never Caused this much panic. My question given all that we know now about the mortality rate is why still all the panic?
Sounds like a lot of opportunity for infecting othersPrime Minister's Office - PMO, Bhutan
Press Release First confirmed COVID-19 case in Bhutan We would like to inform the general public that one positive case of COVID-19 was confirmed at 11pm on March 5. The result was validated at...www.facebook.com
My hate for this twitter account continues to grow lol.
I said you were acting like trump because you are. Literally making up information to downplay the situation and downplay the CFR. While it will vary from country to country and adjust over time we know for an undisputed fact that it is significantly worse than the flu. Downplaying the situation is just as bad as people panicking and literally leads to mass panic because they have been misinformed previously
Very true.You can't compare them right now. The denominator for those being tested for the flu is way higher than those bing tested for COVID-19. So when people who are essentially very sick or those with known contacts are the only ones getting tested, the mortality rates will be very skewed.
Shutting down all international travel would cause a global depression overnight.All international travel must be stopped now. People will not do it voluntarily. Each state will have to do it for themselves. This seems drastic, but there are too many unknown risks. We don't know how many cases are out there in countries (including the US) which are not doing enough testing. International travel is just creating new opportunities to confuse and overwhelm the healthcare system in places which community spread is already happening.
Here we go, I found it:I listened to a virology lecture the other day where the professor said Spanish flu had a death rate of 2%. I think that number was derived from people who received treatment so while the actual death rate might have been 10% when comparing to the modern world maybe 2% is more accurate.
Yeah, but it also sounds like they're really on top of things.
Yeah, it's a messy thing comparing the death rates of different diseases separated by a century.Here we go, I found it:
Ferris Jabr on Twitter
“Many people are claiming that the new coronavirus is as deadly as the 1918 Spanish flu, citing a case fatality rate (CFR) of ~2.5% The truth is that this comparison is, at best, highly unreliable, and may be completely wrong. Here's why:”twitter.com
This seems a likely explanation to me.
Yeah, all his contacts were quarantined.Yeah, but it also sounds like they're really on top of things.
I think it has been shown that decisive action in the early stages can be very effective in containing this, and I hope they pull through.
The massive economic downturn that would cause would end up killing way more people than the virus will.All international travel must be stopped now. People will not do it voluntarily. Each state will have to do it for themselves. This seems drastic, but there are too many unknown risks. We don't know how many cases are out there in countries (including the US) which are not doing enough testing. International travel is just creating new opportunities to confuse and overwhelm the healthcare system in places which community spread is already happening.