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PianoBlack

Member
May 24, 2018
6,694
United States
500$ VS 500$ MS will lose, hands down. Going lower than Sony is their only option. Back when they thought they had the power card, that could have been an advantage. But if the PS5 is as or more powerful? MS is basically doomed unless they undercut them in price.

Um, yes. I agree. So if they planned for a $50 price advantage ($349 vs $399) and then found out their competitor was building a $499 machine instead, wouldn't they celebrate having a $150 advantage?
 

PianoBlack

Member
May 24, 2018
6,694
United States
Maybe they cancelled Lockhart because it was a shit idea to begin with :D wild, I know.

Well, I still disagree that it's cancelled based on Phil's explicit reminder this summer that they announced multiple machines in 2018 and that he wasn't talking about the Xbox One SAD.

I also think it's a good idea. Get as many SSD and RT systems into the wild as quickly as possible so we can move beyond cross gen. Two $500 machines means a tiny market for next gen for the first couple years.
 

RF Switch

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
4,118
500$ VS 500$ MS will lose, hands down. Going lower than Sony is their only option. Back when they thought they had the power card, that could have been an advantage. But if the PS5 is as or more powerful? MS is basically doomed unless they undercut them in price.

Microsoft without question already knows they won't be winning a console sale war. The goal is services and Xbox X will be the new entry point and every Xbox One on the market will be able to use Xcloud. That being said a 499.99 price tag with a free month of GamePass ultimate giving a consumer Halo Infinite, Forza and other launch titles without spending any extra cash is a selling point the market has never seen before.
 

More Butter

Banned
Jun 12, 2018
1,890
QiDAB8c.png
I would be thrilled if either of these consoles had some really forward looking tech but this dude saw a code name on LinkedIn and went into wild speculation. It means nothing.
 
Dec 9, 2018
21,234
New Jersey
Microsoft without question already knows they won't be winning a console sale war. The goal is services and Xbox X will be the new entry point and every Xbox One on the market will be able to use Xcloud. That being said a 499.99 price tag with a free month of GamePass ultimate giving a consumer Halo Infinite, Forza and other launch titles without spending any extra cash is a selling point the market has never seen before.
They're making the Scarlett not to win the market but to maintain that avenue of profit. It's safe to say Sony has established an impenetrable brand and interest in the PS5 is already undoubtedly massive. It could be bigger than PS4 launch. Maybe Scarlett as well but the general public seems to be talking way more about PS5. Scarlett will sell fine but it's not a big prediction to say PS5 will break records at launch.
 
Oct 27, 2017
7,147
Somewhere South
Well, I still disagree that it's cancelled based on Phil's explicit reminder this summer that they announced multiple machines in 2018 and that he wasn't talking about the Xbox One SAD.

IIRC, he actually said the exact opposite of that. Can't be arsed to look for it, though, can't get myself to care enough.

I also think it's a good idea. Get as many SSD and RT systems into the wild as quickly as possible so we can move beyond cross gen. Two $500 machines means a tiny market for next gen for the first couple years.

Lockhart would've been the system all the media would tell you not to buy. Get the good, future proof one, not the garbo SKU. Or get a cheapo, used Xbox One S/X, if you don't have the money.
 

DrKeo

Banned
Mar 3, 2019
2,600
Israel
Um, yes. I agree. So if they planned for a $50 price advantage ($349 vs $399) and then found out their competitor was building a $499 machine instead, wouldn't they celebrate having a $150 advantage?
Selling a 250$ 1080p console at a 100$+ lose to a casual audience is pretty stupid. They spend a lot less money and they are not trendsetters like the core. They won't help them get the important first-year foothold like the core. When your casual console is sold for a very small lose it makes sense, when you need to push its MSRP down and lose an extra 100$ per console it doesn't make any sense.

Microsoft without question already knows they won't be winning a console sale war. The goal is services and Xbox X will be the new entry point and every Xbox One on the market will be able to use Xcloud. That being said a 499.99 price tag with a free month of GamePass ultimate giving a consumer Halo Infinite, Forza and other launch titles without spending any extra cash is a selling point the market has never seen before.
Every smartphone can use xcloud, they don't need the X. But Xcloud is no answer, it will just launch in 2020, a service in its diapers in the 2020 holiday season.

Giving away GamePass is spending money.

Lockhart would've been the system all the media would tell you not to buy. Get the good, future proof one, not the garbo SKU. Or get a cheapo, used Xbox One S/X, if you don't have the money.
Lockheart is the console you would have bought if you don't care about 4K (which is most of the general population) or you still have just a 1080p TV and planning on buying a mid-gen refresh console anyway.
 
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PianoBlack

Member
May 24, 2018
6,694
United States
IIRC, he actually said the exact opposite of that. Can't be arsed to look for it, though, can't get myself to care enough.

"Last year we talked about xCloud and then we said we were working on new game consoles, but that's all I said." Spencer clarified, "We didn't say that [a streaming console was in the works]. I think maybe some people thought that that was the disc-less one that we just shipped. We are not working on a streaming-only console right now."

Lockhart would've been the system all the media would tell you not to buy. Get the good, future proof one, not the garbo SKU. Or get a cheapo, used Xbox One S/X, if you don't have the money.

Why get a cheap S/X when you could get a Lockhart with SSD, RT, 4x CPU of the X? It'd be a much, much better value for your $300-$400.
 

Kyoufu

Member
Oct 26, 2017
16,582
My theory always was that Lockheart got canceled because Anaconda was meant to be a 500$ monster but around E3, when MS found out that the PS5 is at the same power level as Anaconda or maybe even more powerful, the whole idea of being the top dog by making a monster went down the drain. So they had to go to their last resort, 399$. If Anaconda is 400$, there is no reason for a 349$-399$ Lockheart, it's not like they are going to sell it for 250$ and lose 100$+ on each unit of a product that is aimed at a more casual market which doesn't spend as much.

That's my tin-foil-hat theory, Scarlett is 399$ because MSRP price and their financial backbone is MS's only way to combat Sony at launch.

I hear this exact thing every generation but MS has never taken huge losses on hardware just to undercut Sony. Like, with your theory, they could have sold the Xbox One + Kinect for $399, but they didn't, they sold it for $499 and ended up removing the Kinect to drop the price permanently. They've never undercut Sony just because they have a bottomless pit of money and they never will because at the end of the day, Microsoft's a business that answers to shareholders and investors and none of those people want to invest in a company that would take billions of losses to sell hardware when Microsoft's whole strategy as of late has been to move away from needing to do that and instead selling software and services on various devices.
 
Oct 27, 2017
7,147
Somewhere South
Lockheart is the console you would have bought if you don't care about 4K (which is most of the general population) or you still have just a 1080p TV and planning on buying a mid-gen refresh console anyway.

You can probably count on the fingers of one hand the people that fit this profile (i.e. are going to buy a new console at or near launch and don't care/won't care about 4K and/or are thinking about getting a possible mid-gen refresh).

"Last year we talked about xCloud and then we said we were working on new game consoles, but that's all I said." Spencer clarified, "We didn't say that [a streaming console was in the works]. I think maybe some people thought that that was the disc-less one that we just shipped. We are not working on a streaming-only console right now."

That's not really saying what you think it is saying.

Why get a cheap S/X when you could get a Lockhart with SSD, RT, 4x CPU of the X? It'd be a much, much better value for your $300-$400.

A used S/X wouldn't cost you the $300-$400, though.
 

PianoBlack

Member
May 24, 2018
6,694
United States
That's not really saying what you think it is saying.

Of course it is. He says they announced they were working on multiple consoles, and that the SAD wasn't one of them.

A used S/X wouldn't cost you the $300-$400, though.

Sure. But like, have you noticed that despite the pro and the X making the PS4 and the S "garbo" skus, those skus continue to sell a ton more? The mass public is price sensitive, not TFLOP sensitive. It's not as though people only buy $200 used consoles or $500 super premium machines.
 

PianoBlack

Member
May 24, 2018
6,694
United States
Nope. He just clarified that, of the consoles they were working on, none of them were streaming-only. He mentioned the SAD only to further clarify that he thinks some people might have thought that was a streaming console.

Uh, right. So he said they were working on multiple consoles, none of which are streaming only.

Not sure where you think we disagree? Unless you think at E3 2018 they were referring to the SAD on stage as "next generation of consoles" which seems... implausible.
 

thuway

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,168
Supposedly Sony removed the world's fastest console from the job listing. Scarlett back to being more powerful. Congrats Team Green!!
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,852
It's gonna be hard for MS to make a dent in PlayStations momentum next gen.

I always thought a 4-5TF Lockhart targeting 1080p users was a good play given how price sensitive gamers can be. But that was always contingent on it requiring very little work from devs to scale Anaconda games down(ideally it would be texture size reduction only - the rest would be dependent on resolution), and on the price difference being significant enough. Probably needed to be able to delivered for $299 or less to be viable - and I'm not certain that would be possible with just an APU/RAM reduction.

Having a low priced current gen sku would also have been a good play for getting in as a secondary/spare room console - which can be a gateway to get gamers hooked into your games/ecosystem.
 

disco_potato

Member
Nov 16, 2017
3,145
Mostly agree with this. However the MSRP may be $500 on the X but no one is paying that. It's almost on constant promotion. $500 is for stupid consumers.
People are definitely paying that.
I paid $350 for mine just 3-4 months after release. Newegg had it at that price regularly when you used one of their daily coupons.
 

Jaypah

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,868
Yeah this always happens.

It's clearly an advertising beat anyway. They don't to stand by it in case it ends up being true.

I think too much focus is placed on marketing speak anyway, including MS and "setting the standard" line at E3. People took that empty statement that was meant as a general 'we're going to do good' as them saying that they would hands down unquestionably without doubt have the most powerful console and it never made any sense to me.
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
12,932
Australia
Uh, right. So he said they were working on multiple consoles, none of which are streaming only.

Not sure where you think we disagree? Unless you think at E3 2018 they were referring to the SAD on stage as "next generation of consoles" which seems... implausible.

I believe the argument is that the "consoles" - plural - that Phil was referring to were Lockhart and Anaconda, and now that Anaconda is all there is he has to explain the comment away as referring to the SAD, rather than admitting they had to cancel a console they never announced because they found out the PS5 was more powerful than they thought. It's not convincing, but there isn't much choice.
 

Jaypah

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,868
I believe the argument is that the "consoles" - plural - that Phil was referring to were Lockhart and Anaconda, and now that Anaconda is all there is he has to explain the comment away as referring to the SAD, rather than admitting they had to cancel a console they never announced because they found out the PS5 was more powerful than they thought. It's not convincing, but there isn't much choice.

Is that what happened? I thought the rumor was that devs didn't like the idea.
 

Jaypah

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,868
It's rumour and speculation. I also heard that about the devs - for all we know it could be all of those things.

Right. Just asking because I kind of glossed over that explanation the first few times I saw it but lately it gets tossed around like fact. Thought maybe I had missed Matt or someone confirm it.
 

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
33,180
on their own games yes. From third party games? not really. The cut is about 30% or so either way.



Nope. Not sure where you got that idea, even if you completely ignore inflation (which you should not).



Sony only gets 30% from third party games, which is what I said. If all that PSN revenue was only from "selling third party games" then there's no way profitability would be as far past *the entire PS2 era* as it is, since it's impossible that they sold more games in two years on PS4 than they did in 6 years from 2000-2005.

Sony gets 100% from their own first party titles on PSN which is not subject to retailer cuts. This is easily 3 times as profitable as a first party game sold at retail during the PS2 era.
Sony gets 100% of all DLC sold from such games.
Sony gets 100% of subscription fees to PS+
Sony gets 100% of all advertising revenue on PSN, and this is not insignificant
Sony gets 100% of all revenue from PSNOW, which is not insignificant.
Sony gets a cut of revenue from streaming services they own like PSVue.

All of that stacks up to add massive, massive amounts of revenue (and profit) that are above and beyond what is coming in via simple sales of third party games. Think about this.

edit: before we get too far off track, the point of this is that Network Services are THE driver for PS profitability going forward, and it's not just "selling retail games through PSN." Sony is extremely interested in keeping this gravy train going, the PS4 is by far the most profitable gaming hardware they've ever come up with, if not the most profitable device of all time BECAUSE of the ecosystem.

No one in their right mind is going to say a 100 dollar loss per unit is too much to sustain that. you could double that loss and Sony would STILL do it.

isn't it about double on a DD title - although varies based on retail price

for a $60 digital title if they're getting 30% that's $18 per title. For physical they're charging maybe $9 landed at the distributor per title including license fee and printing
 

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
33,180
Microsoft without question already knows they won't be winning a console sale war. The goal is services and Xbox X will be the new entry point and every Xbox One on the market will be able to use Xcloud. That being said a 499.99 price tag with a free month of GamePass ultimate giving a consumer Halo Infinite, Forza and other launch titles without spending any extra cash is a selling point the market has never seen before.

yeah this. They'll take slower sales of console hardware -direct comparison at the same price they'll lose (Sony brand too strong), but game pass (and hopefully for them xcloud) will be reasons for people to choose Xbox. Or a PC. Or keep their xb1.

MS' low priced sku can be 1x or even SAD - working as an Xcloud game pass streaming client
 

Justsomeguy

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,712
UK
I believe the argument is that the "consoles" - plural - that Phil was referring to were Lockhart and Anaconda, and now that Anaconda is all there is he has to explain the comment away as referring to the SAD, rather than admitting they had to cancel a console they never announced because they found out the PS5 was more powerful than they thought. It's not convincing, but there isn't much choice.
I still wish the low spec option would turn out to be a portable. That would be ace. Totally ridiculous idea though.
 

Red Tapir

Member
May 10, 2019
591
PSNow failed as a streaming service, Stadia is set to fuck it up, why exactly should XCloud be any different?

XCloud is going to run into the same infrastructural deficiency and public indifference as the other two.
 

Red Tapir

Member
May 10, 2019
591
Re: PS5 "fastest console"

I think we should take it as further confirmation of the "no loading times" marketing line that Jason suggested.
 

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,074
Barcelona Spain
PSNow failed as a streaming service, Stadia is set to fuck it up, why exactly should XCloud be any different?

XCloud is going to run into the same infrastructural deficiency and public indifference as the other two.

PSNow failed because Sony was not aggressive with it. I wait to see if gaming streaming is a good business with MS, Google and a more aggressive Sony. During Champion's league football/soccer match , there were multiple ad for PSNow in the stadium.
 

Red Tapir

Member
May 10, 2019
591
PSNow failed because Sony was not aggressive with it. I wait to see if gaming streaming is a good business with MS, Google and a more aggressive Sony. During Champion's league football/soccer match , there were multiple ad for PSNow in the stadium.
PSNow renewed push also comes with adding more titles for for download.
To make it more appealing, Sony is moving AWAY from streaming, not towards it.
 

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,074
Barcelona Spain
PSNow renewed push also comes with adding more titles for for download.
To make it more appealing, Sony is moving AWAY from streaming, not towards it.

Like I said we need to wait to see if the gamers follow this trend. Will it be replace PC and console gaming? Be a flop? Or more probably a viable option between many different ways of playing games.
 
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Red Tapir

Member
May 10, 2019
591
Like I said we need to wait to see if the gamers follow this trend. Will it be replace PC and console gaming? Be a flop? Or more probably a viable option between multiple form of gaming.
It's hardly going to be viable any time soon, given how it's totally dependent on how and where you live.

The last pages of OT6 were full of people showing how much they had to pay for their internet, often with disappointing results.

Good wifi is uncommon, 5G more so.
Local hardware is still the most reliable and widespread, and often the cheapest, way to experience gaming.
 

Deleted member 10747

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,259
PSNow failed because Sony was not aggressive with it. I wait to see if gaming streaming is a good business with MS, Google and a more aggressive Sony. During Champion's league football/soccer match , there were multiple ad for PSNow in the stadium.
Spotify is also running a lot of commercials for PSNow. It's weird.
 

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,074
Barcelona Spain
Spotify is also running a lot of commercials for PSNow. It's weird.

Sony is more aggressive, many people don't like Jim Ryan because of his talk about crossplay or backward compatibility but he is not the guy who will let Sony a bit sleepy because of PS4 success.

EDIT: If I remember well he was promoted because of his success during PS3 era in Europe and expansion to other place like Middle East or Eastern Europe during PS4 era and he does not care of his public image. This is why he answered for crossplay and backward compatibility.
 
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goonergaz

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,710
That was not specific to gamestop stock.

And where did Sony ever announce that they were going to release the console in 2019? We have never had an inkling that it would come out in 2019, not until some insiders came in and stated that to be the case. You can be sure that most investors did not even think about it.

When it comes to the stock market, we are in a bubble. A question of when, not if it will pop. And this next time the recession will be worse than 08'.

Sorry, do you mean that lul I highlighted was also a general shares thing at the time? I just found it interesting that it was a similar trend. WRT the 2019/2020 comment, I agree - I was just stating that if there was a belief that 2019 was the date and then a delay of 1 year was announced then that could affect share prices...but I came in half-way through the argument so will step out now as I'm no expert, I just know that I've seen similar announcements affect my share prices.
 

goonergaz

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,710
I hear this exact thing every generation but MS has never taken huge losses on hardware just to undercut Sony. Like, with your theory, they could have sold the Xbox One + Kinect for $399, but they didn't, they sold it for $499 and ended up removing the Kinect to drop the price permanently. They've never undercut Sony just because they have a bottomless pit of money and they never will because at the end of the day, Microsoft's a business that answers to shareholders and investors and none of those people want to invest in a company that would take billions of losses to sell hardware when Microsoft's whole strategy as of late has been to move away from needing to do that and instead selling software and services on various devices.

OXB price was dropped pretty quickly in the UK along with a promotion for early buyers to get (IIRC) 3 retail games worth ~£150 (I remember because I got the reduced price and games :))

Also they lost ~$125 per console at launch full retail price.
 

GreenEarth

alt account
Banned
Oct 24, 2019
451
PSNow renewed push also comes with adding more titles for for download.
To make it more appealing, Sony is moving AWAY from streaming, not towards it.
What do you mean by this? Because the 'marquee' titles that they just added in the renewed push of the service are available for both streaming and download.
 
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