Next gen PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Secret sauces spicing 2019

[vivftp]

Admittedly I don't know how TVs doing it, but I would think interpolation would need both frame 1 and 2 to calculate frame 1.5. If that's how it'd work, it'd defeat the purpose since you'd need to add a frame of lag.

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Yup, lag is a definite concern. Then agian if PSVR allows for it then there's already a gaming application of the tech being used on something that's extremely sensitive to lag and it seems to work fine. If it's good enough to not cause a significant amount of lag for VR then it should be negligible enough for TVs

What your talking about is motion interpolation. It doesn't increase framerate at all. It is essentially a motion smoothing effect that creates fake frames to create something resembling a higher FPS. It doesn't make games feel as responsive as they do at 60 FPS tho, and in fact makes them feel far, far worse due to extreme input latency. It also honestly doesn't replicate the same smoothness as an actual 60 FPS presentation either, as you can still see judder and such in the image. It just isn't worth including Imo, it is not meant for gaming, and actually worsens the gameplay experience.

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I think it also varies depending on what method of motion interpolation is being used. A method where a TV with a very high refresh rate does black frame insertion would of course not work on the console level when it's trying to take something like a 30 FPS game and bump it up to 60 FPS. And while it wouldn't give you the same sort overall experience you'd get from an actual 60 FPS game I have to believe it'll give you something superior to a 30 FPS one. I've played quite a few games with motionflow activated on my Bravia TV (mostly Destiny 2 at the time) and it did make for a noticeably smoother experience. If it could be done on the console end with a superior MI technique to my mid-range TV then it could at the very least be a good optional setting for games that would otherwise be 30 FPS. For the PS5 I dunno if it's as simple as Sony dropping one of their X1 Ultimate chipsets that're used on TVs (or a variant of that) into the PS5 and calling it a day, but it looks like all the pieces are there on some level. It's just a question of how good it really would be, how much it'd add to production costs and if they're even looking at doing this.

With PSVR reprojection is automatically done by the GPU by the PSVR API in conjunction with the current motion of the headset. The software needs to know the user headset current motion in order to approximately predict the location to interpolate a frame (from memory I think just the same previous frame) just before the next computed new frame. This is why the tech does not add input lag and can't be used on TVs (on TVs motion interpolation adds latency).

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Ahh, thanks for the info. Do you think adding an interpolation method similar to those used by TVs in the console itself would minimize lag? Or is it unavoidable?

 

[grosbard]

Microsoft is not gonna sell a console at a lose if they dont have too.

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Selling consoles at a loss isn't something outside of the norm. Also, I would argue they need to do something very drastic in order not to have a repeat of this gen.

 

[anexanhume]

Selling consoles at a loss isn't something outside of the norm. Also, I would argue they need to do something very drastic in order not to have a repeat of this gen.

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If you call maintaining the value of their services and releasing a console that is power and price competitive with Sony drastic, then yes. They're in a positive position given the potential of xCloud, platform persistence, and the acquisition of very quality studios (inXile, Obsidian, Ninja Theory, etc.)

They're applying the "Microsoft" strategy to gaming now - get your content/apps on every platform regardless of whether it is your OS or hardware. It's working very well for them there.

 

[grosbard]

If you call maintaining the value of their services and releasing a console that is power and price competitive with Sony drastic, then yes. They're in a positive position given the potential of xCloud, platform persistence, and the acquisition of very quality studios (inXile, Obsidian, Ninja Theory, etc.)

They're applying the "Microsoft" strategy to gaming now - get your content/apps on every platform regardless of whether it is your OS or hardware. It's working very well for them there.

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Nope, that's not what I mean. The ps4 is outselling the x1 2:1. Sony has done a phenomenal job this gen and the vast majority of the ps4 player base really won't have a reason to switch to the next Xbox unless it's cheaper and more powerful or equally as powerful as the ps5.

 

[anexanhume]

Nope, that's not what I mean. The ps4 is outselling the x1 2:1. Sony has done a phenomenal job this gen and the vast majority of the ps4 player base really won't have a reason to switch to the next Xbox unless it's cheaper and more powerful or equally as powerful as the ps5.

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I think this is a zero sum game mindset where Sony has to lose for MS to win. MS is gearing to where they win no matter what if they deliver on their plan. I'm feeling pretty bullish for them, and I converted from two generations of Xbox primary platform to PS4 this gen.

You also have to remember that winning for MS last gen looked like doing well in NA, parts of Europe, and almost no where else. Their criteria of success is less than what Sony is going for.

 

[MrKlaw]

PSVR solution is similar to oculus asynchronous time warp. It's not designed to make your whole game run at 90/120Hz - only the head tracking part. Because you can change direction and move a lot very quickly you need a high refresh rate to avoid nausea. If the game can't update the entire world fast enough then when you move your head the world doesn't move with you quickly - not good

Time warp basically uses a larger screen canvas than you can see so there are edges just off screen that are rendered but you can't see them. If you move your head and the next frame isn't ready in time, the console can shift the current frame around to match your movement - so now a bit of offscreen image is now pushed into view.

This is generally enough to make it feel like the headset is smoothly tracking but is very low impact in terms of performance

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I think this is a zero sum game mindset where Sony has to lose for MS to win. MS is gearing to where they win no matter what if they deliver on their plan. I'm feeling pretty bullish for them, and I converted from two generations of Xbox primary platform to PS4 this gen.

You also have to remember that winning for MS last gen looked like doing well in NA, parts of Europe, and almost no where else. Their criteria of success is less than what Sony is going for.

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I also think it should be judged on how well MS executes their plan. The comparison with Sony isn't really needed at this point.

 

[vivftp]

PSVR solution is similar to oculus asynchronous time warp. It's not designed to make your whole game run at 90/120Hz - only the head tracking part. Because you can change direction and move a lot very quickly you need a high refresh rate to avoid nausea. If the game can't update the entire world fast enough then when you move your head the world doesn't move with you quickly - not good

Time warp basically uses a larger screen canvas than you can see so there are edges just off screen that are rendered but you can't see them. If you move your head and the next frame isn't ready in time, the console can shift the current frame around to match your movement - so now a bit of offscreen image is now pushed into view.

This is generally enough to make it feel like the headset is smoothly tracking but is very low impact in terms of performance

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Interesting, I had always been led to believe that 90 FPS PSVR games ran at 90 FPS and 60 FPS were reprojected to 120 FPS. So what refresh rate do we actually get on the screen, 60?

 

[anexanhume]

Interesting, I had always been led to believe that 90 FPS PSVR games ran at 90 FPS and 60 FPS were reprojected to 120 FPS. So what refresh rate do we actually get on the screen, 60?

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And they'll just do a more extreme version of this with eye tracking and foveated rendering.

 

[grosbard]

I think this is a zero sum game mindset where Sony has to lose for MS to win. MS is gearing to where they win no matter what if they deliver on their plan. I'm feeling pretty bullish for them, and I converted from two generations of Xbox primary platform to PS4 this gen.

You also have to remember that winning for MS last gen looked like doing well in NA, parts of Europe, and almost no where else. Their criteria of success is less than what Sony is going for.

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Yeah, you're completely correct. I was thinking in terms of outselling Sony but I totally agree with you. "Winning" to Microsoft is being profitable and their current strategy certainly seems like it could payoff in a big way.

 

[Deleted member 27315]

Ya know I've always wondered this but I'm not sure if it's a silly question or not. The same way that most TVs use motion interpolation to generate new frames between existing ones properly. Would it be possible to build an advanced version of something like that into the consoles themselves that can take lower framerate games and boost them up?

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From my experience, Interpolation doesn't work for everything. If a game drops often frames below 30fps is a disaster, but with games like horizon zero dawn or Crash Bandicoot which work at locked 30 fps, it works like magic. It's almost like playing a 60fps game.

 

[Deleted member 27315]

Doesn't PSVR's motion interpolation require that you hit 60fps first?

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yes

 

[Deleted member 36493]

I'm starting to join the mindset that Spring 2020 is the best time to launch for Xbox. They're distancing themselves from direct competition with Sony and carving out their own space. Why launch at the same time in Fall 2020, wouldn't that give the impression that it is a direct competitor to the PS5?

 

[MrKlaw]

Interesting, I had always been led to believe that 90 FPS PSVR games ran at 90 FPS and 60 FPS were reprojected to 120 FPS. So what refresh rate do we actually get on the screen, 60?

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I think the options are
- render at 60, reproject to 120
- render at 90 (no reprojection as no near multiplier)
- render at 120 (no reprojection as max refresh rate already)


Oculus rift does have an optional 45fps rendering with reprojection to 99 but I don't know if that requires 'space warp' - their more advanced technique. It may be usable with just time warp but that seems a low base refresh rate and I don't think that's an option on psvr

 

[TheRaidenPT]

I'm starting to join the mindset that Spring 2020 is the best time to launch for Xbox. They're distancing themselves from direct competition with Sony and carving out their own space. Why launch at the same time in Fall 2020, wouldn't that give the impression that it is a direct competitor to the PS5?

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It could be one advantage they could take, starting before Sony regarding next generation.

 

[DrKeo]

They will be playing PS4 games at 4K 60fps. The mid-gen consoles already proved that that's enough for literally millions to buy a console that does only that, so it would certainly be enough to sell millions of PS5s over the first six months, along with the promise of full next-gen games starting at the holidays. That's not even getting into the potential of early demos.

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PS4 pro sales are 1:4 in relation to the PS4 so something like 3-4 million units a year. It's pretty good for a midlife upgrade but a catastrophe for a next-gen console. In addition to that, if all that your console have in its first months are 4K/60 last-gen games, people will see it as a mid-gen upgrade like the PS4 Pro which will be a PR nightmare.

 

[Deleted member 36493]

It could be one advantage they could take, starting before Sony regarding next generation.

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Yeah, and give a huge game like Halo Infinite its own breathing room before the onslaught of 3rd and 1st Party exclusives that are going to be coming that Fall.

Plus the fact that its an election year in the US, a lot of things are going to get overshadowed.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

PS4 pro sales are 1:4 in relation to the PS4 so something like 3-4 million units a year. It's pretty good for a midlife upgrade but a catastrophe for a next-gen console. In addition to that, if all that your console have in its first months are 4K/60 last-gen games, people will see it as a mid-gen upgrade like the PS4 Pro which will be a PR nightmare.

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That 20% stat is outdated (it was 1 in 5). It is higher than that now according to Benji (especially for the X).

 

[Son Goku]

PS4 pro sales are 1:4 in relation to the PS4 so something like 3-4 million units a year. It's pretty good for a midlife upgrade but a catastrophe for a next-gen console. In addition to that, if all that your console have in its first months are 4K/60 last-gen games, people will see it as a mid-gen upgrade like the PS4 Pro which will be a PR nightmare.

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I don't think that would be as much of a problem for Sony. They have a clear number that they just increase by that marks a next gen

MS meanwhile has been inconsistent with numbering so they could get a wiiu situation depending on their name

 

[DrKeo]

That 20% stat is outdated. It is higher than that now according to Benji (especially for the X).

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It was true 8 months after the PS4 Pro had launched. We are talking about the first months of the PS5 so these numbers are the only numbers that matter. It could actually be worst in the PS5's case because the price difference will probably be higher than 100$ from the current gen consoles and the Pro does 4Kc, the difference between that and 4k native isn't very noticeable to most people.

It's a very bad idea to launch a new console without exclusives, especially if the old console that runs these games is the most popular console on the planet.

 

[Imitation Of Life]

I wonder what made them change there launch strategy so radically to not include next gen launch exclusives.
If what you are saying turns out true

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Well for Sony they already announced TLOU2, Death Stranding and GOT as PS4 games so they can't really go back on that. I'm sure there are couple projects we don't know about that could be PS5 exclusives. For Microsoft I'm just taking Halo Infinite. The rest of games like the next Forza Motorsport could be next gen only, but I kinda doubt it.

It was true 8 months after the PS4 Pro had launched. We are talking about the first months of the PS5 so these numbers are the only numbers that matter. It could actually be worst in the PS5's case because the price difference will probably be higher than 100$ from the current gen consoles and the Pro does 4Kc, the difference between that and 4k native isn't very noticeable to most people.

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The difference in games will be more than just checkerboard and native resolution. All of the biggest games at PS4's launch were cross-gen and that didn't stop any one from buying it. Most people wanted to play better versions of Battlefield 4, AC Black Flag, COD Ghosts, etc. It will be no different with Cyberpunk 2077, the next AC, Destiny 3, etc in 2020.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

It was true 8 months after the PS4 Pro had launched. We are talking about the first months of the PS5 so these numbers are the only numbers that matter. It could actually be worst in the PS5's case because the price difference will probably be higher than 100$ from the current gen consoles and the Pro does 4Kc anyways, the difference between that and 4k native isn't very noticeable to most people.

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Massive marketing + a numbered system makes that very unlikely to happen.

All it needs after that is the newest CoD and they're set.

 

[Anthony Hopkins]

Well for Sony they already announced TLOU2, Death Stranding and GOT as PS4 games so they can't really go back on that. I'm sure there are couple projects we don't know about that could be PS5 exclusives. For Microsoft I'm just taking Halo Infinite. The rest of games like the next Forza Motorsport could be next gen only, but I kinda doubt it.

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Yes but they would of be planning the PS5 strategy in like 2016 or possibly earlier so they would of known when these games would come out in 19/20
Sony could of easily made some Of these games next gen.

 

[Deleted member 36493]

Well for Sony they already announced TLOU2, Death Stranding and GOT as PS4 games so they can't really go back on that. I'm sure there are couple projects we don't know about that could be PS5 exclusives. For Microsoft I'm just taking Halo Infinite. The rest of games like the next Forza Motorsport could be next gen only, but I kinda doubt it.

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Also, keep in mind that Sony and MS can still show next-gen exclusives that aren't necessarily coming at launch. Infamous: Second Son wasn't a launch game but was still revealed with the PS4. Same with Quantum Break for Xbox One.

I fully expect Sony to go all out and show games further down the pipeline like Horizon 2 at the PS5 reveal. Same for Microsoft, I expect to get a glimpse of Playground's Fable game at the Scarlett reveal.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Also, keep in mind that Sony and MS can still show next-gen exclusives that aren't necessarily coming at launch. Infamous: Second Son wasn't a launch game but was still revealed with the PS5. Same with Quantum Break for Xbox One.

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Right, they can still announce games that are coming in 2021/2022.

Horizon and God of War should fall somewhere around there.

 

[Deleted member 17092]

I still don't think mainstream numbers are going to care about VR, especially with their shiny new 4k sets. Even iff new HMDs hit 4k+ it's going to be pretty niche unless the killer apps really start to hit. Even if fidelity is up there with a 4k set most folks just aren't going to put on that headset.

 

[Son Goku]

I still don't think mainstream numbers are going to care about VR, especially with their shiny new 4k sets. Even iff new HMDs hit 4k+ it's going to be pretty niche unless the killer apps really start to hit. Even if fidelity is up there with a 4k set most folks just aren't going to put on that headset.

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Well even introducing it 3 years into the gen Sony still got over 4m sold on a console that has ~94m consoles out there. So if they can get 4% coming that late and without as much focus on it I think they could get 10% if they launch with an enhanced version

 

[DrKeo]

Launching without games is crazy talk. You are jumping through hoops in order to fit a March 2020 launch that will never happen. If the PS5 was coming in the first half of 2020, we would have known a lot about it by now and most studios would have had development kits by now.

Developers had a kits with the PS4's GPU 18 months before it launched and full kits made out of PC parts 12 months before. We knew some PS4 specs 18 months before it launched. We have nothing about the PS5 right now, developers are just starting to get development kits, it's obvious that we are ~18 months from the PS5 launch. It's "team 2019" all over again only they've changed their tune to "team March 2020".

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Launching without games is crazy talk. You should stop trying to shift the goalposts in order to fit a March 2020 launch that will never happen. If the PS5 was coming in the first half of 2020, we would have known a lot about it by now and most studios would have had development kits by now.

Developers had a kits with the PS4's GPU 18 months before it launched and full kits made out of PC parts 12 months before. We knew some PS4 specs 18 months before it launched. We have nothing about the PS5 right now, developers are just starting to get development kits, it's obvious that we are ~18 months from the PS5 launch. It's "team 2019" all over again only they've changed their tune to "team March 2020".

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I'm on the Fall 2020 train as well. Jason already ruled out 2019 but then that essentially rules out early 2020 too. Why would late 2019 be off the map but they are more than ready to go early 2020? I suppose a few months makes a world of difference with this industry, but it still feels like it is quite a bit farther away than that going by the lacks of concrete details and buildup.

 

[Son Goku]

Launching without games is crazy talk. You are jumping through hoops in order to fit a March 2020 launch that will never happen. If the PS5 was coming in the first half of 2020, we would have known a lot about it by now and most studios would have had development kits by now.

Developers had a kits with the PS4's GPU 18 months before it launched and full kits made out of PC parts 12 months before. We knew some PS4 specs 18 months before it launched. We have nothing about the PS5 right now, developers are just starting to get development kits, it's obvious that we are ~18 months from the PS5 launch. It's "team 2019" all over again only they've changed their tune to "team March 2020".

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Well my team September (which consists of only me) is still alive dammit!

 

[Vitamin_B_Complex]

What your talking about is motion interpolation. It doesn't increase framerate at all. It is essentially a motion smoothing effect that creates fake frames to create something resembling a higher FPS. It doesn't make games feel as responsive as they do at 60 FPS tho, and in fact makes them feel far, far worse due to extreme input latency. It also honestly doesn't replicate the same smoothness as an actual 60 FPS presentation either, as you can still see judder and such in the image. It just isn't worth including Imo, it is not meant for gaming, and actually worsens the gameplay experience.

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You could say the same about checkerboarding but the results of that are amazing. I think it would be cool if the costs were low and the results a step above 30FPS. I use MI when watching anime and movies and the smoothness makes everything more realistic and beautiful (I know many people hate it) and I would love for devs to play with that. I would gladly take 10ms of lag for fake 60 FPS.

 

[Deleted member 27315]

I use MI when watching anime and movies and the smoothness makes everything more realistic and beautiful (I know many people hate it) and I would love for devs to play with that. I would gladly take 10ms of lag for fake 60 FPS.

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Many tvs doing mi quite well. As I said, when frame rate is locked at 30fps you feel like you play a 60fps game.
I wonder if PS5 has inside the box this time(to use it for VR), a better interpolation than my TV, that could be used also for ps5 flat games.

 

[DrKeo]

Well my team September (which consists of only me) is still alive dammit!

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I actually think that launching before the holidays is smart. The first few months will see great sales anyways so why not enjoy two sale bumps in the first six moths? I'm thinking July or August - Sell everything you've been able to manufacture for a quarter and just when sales go flat, you have the holiday season to bump you up again. I've never really understood why they always launch on November. They are never able to supply demand during launch anyway and when they do, they have to wait a full year for Christmas.

 

[DrKeo]

Many tvs doing mi quite well. As I said, when frame rate is locked at 30fps you feel like you play a 60fps game.
I wonder if PS5 has inside the box this time(to use it for VR), a better interpolation than my TV, that could be used also for ps5 flat games.

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The way TVs do MI creates more lag than the original 30fps video. When you watch video it doesn't matter because who cares about video lagging a few ms after the live broadcast. But in video games? The whole idea of 60fps is a game which is 16.7ms more responsive, if developers will uses the same MI that TVs use it will actually add at least 16.7ms to the lag instead of removing 16.7ms from it. The motion might be smoother but the lag will be closer to a 15fps game than 60fps game.

 

[Vitamin_B_Complex]

The way TVs do MI creates more lag than the original 30fps video. When you watch video it doesn't matter because who cares about video lagging a few ms after the live broadcast. But in video games? The whole idea of 60fps is a game which is 16.7ms more responsive, if developers will uses the same MI that TVs use it will actually add at least 16.7ms to the lag instead of removing 16.7ms from it. The motion might be smoother but the lag will be closer to a 15fps game than 60fps game.

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So basically Google Stadia.

 

[Son Goku]

I actually think that launching before the holidays is smart. The first few months will see great sales anyways so why not enjoy two sale bumps in the first six moths? I'm thinking July or August - Sell everything you've been able to manufacture for a quarter and just when sales go flat, you have the holiday season to bump you up again. I've never really understood why they always launch on November. They are never able to supply demand during launch anyway and when they do, they have to wait a full year for Christmas.

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I've always wondered that as well

People are going to buy the new console during the holidays and you can get millions more in the first calendar year by pushing things just a couple more months. They're always sold out nowadays as soon as they go on sale so it doesn't matter if the launch is during the holidays or before. Would be a nice incentive for devs to switch over sooner too as they would have an 6-10m install base in January as opposed to 3-4m

 

[DrKeo]

So basically Google Stadia.

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Microsoft claims 10ms lag for Project X Cloud so it's actually worse than game streaming :)

 

[Interficium]

Leocarian is full of shit. No 3rd parties have PS5 "kits" currently.

 

[anexanhume]

Leocarian is full of shit. No 3rd parties have PS5 "kits" currently.

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And Zhuge too?

 

[Barnabas Reynolds]

If you think MI makes 30fps games feel like 60, then you don't spend much time playing games at 60. Or your setup is rotten and you have so much input lag that you can't tell the difference.

 

[Deep Friar]

Yeah, and give a huge game like Halo Infinite its own breathing room before the onslaught of 3rd and 1st Party exclusives that are going to be coming that Fall.

Plus the fact that its an election year in the US, a lot of things are going to get overshadowed.

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One has nothing to do with the other.

 

[Son Goku]

One has nothing to do with the other.

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I dunno if Sony releases election week it could drive down voter participation

 

[Barnabas Reynolds]

I dunno if Sony releases election week it could drive down voter participation

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Those idiots shouldn't be voting anyway, and you probably think far too highly of this hobby.

 

[Deleted member 36493]

One has nothing to do with the other.

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Marketing costs will be higher

 

[Dekim]

If there were third parties with PS5 or Next Xbox dev kits, we would've had leaks from places like Kotaku already. The fact that no such leak from a reputable site has happened yet tells me that there's only a small number of very preliminary kits out there, and they are likely being used by Sony and MS's in-house dev shops like Naughty Dog, 343 Studios, The Initiative, Sony Santa Monica, and Guerilla Games. The number of dev kits are small enough that Sony can likely pin down the source of any leak relatively easily. It's way too risky to leak anything even if you wanted to. No one's goning to risk their job like that.

 

[Anthony Hopkins]

Those idiots shouldn't be voting anyway, and you probably think far too highly of this hobby.

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Gamers are idiots?

 

[Barnabas Reynolds]

Gamers are idiots?

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Is that really what you think I'm saying?

 

[OnPorpoise]

Leocarian is full of shit. No 3rd parties have PS5 "kits" currently.

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There is a difference between having an early "alpha kit" available to a handful of people, and those later stage hardware accurate kits that we usually get leaked documentation from.

We're getting to the point where it's plausible that third parties would have the earliest kits.

 

[bsigg]

And Zhuge too?

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Based on Jason's comments, if anyone actually has one, it's a very limited group that would or even have have knowledge of them.

 

[Ste]

Is it normal for consoles to be in development that are already way behind what is available to buy as a top end pc 9900k, 2080TI, 64GB RAM, M.2 SSD etc?