Morrigan

Spear of the Metal Church
Member
Oct 24, 2017
34,625
On the most recent 538 podcast they raise a good point about this: Why fight this hard for Kavanaugh?

No one seems to really love him in Congress, he comes with a ton of baggage that could galvanize the Democratic base, and the Republicans could easily pivot onto someone else. So why fight for him?

Outside of Trump liking his opinions on Executive power and simply not wanting to take an L, what is the benefit here? They could easily find someone "pro-life" elsewhere.
Yeah this is what I really don't get.

There are other ultra-conservative judges he could place instead, without baggage or controversy, and he'd easily get the votes on it. Why cling so hard to Kavanaugh?

On the other hand, they simply don't have time to confirm another candidate this late, before the elections, and maybe even before the new session begins in January. So they won't get another shot at this.
I don't think this is true... is it? If so I guess it would explain things.
 

Maledict

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,179
Because Trump's entire stance is that you never, ever, ever back down in the face of an allegation of sexual assault. If Kavanaugh loses because of this that's half the republican bench at risk.
 

RDreamer

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,118
Yeah this is what I really don't get.

There are other ultra-conservative judges he could place instead, without baggage or controversy, and he'd easily get the votes on it. Why cling so hard to Kavanaugh?

McConnell didn't want Kavanaugh because of baggage to begin with, but Trump pushed him forward. Once that happened they pretty much had to cling with him because of the timetable. They really only get one shot at this before midterms. And that's with a really accelerated timeline for Kavanaugh to begin with. If they withdraw him now then it'll be at least another 3 months before they could even vote on someone else. That puts us basically into December in a lame duck session with Democrats possibly about to come in and take the Senate.
 

Morrigan

Spear of the Metal Church
Member
Oct 24, 2017
34,625
They really only get one shot at this before midterms. And that's with a really accelerated timeline for Kavanaugh to begin with. If they withdraw him now then it'll be at least another 3 months before they could even vote on someone else. That puts us basically into December in a lame duck session with Democrats possibly about to come in and take the Senate.
I questioned this in my other post too. Are we really sure about this? What's to stop Trump from nominating another one of his finalists and "pushing" the vote through super fast like they attempted with Kavanaugh?
 

RDreamer

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,118
I questioned this in my other post too. Are we really sure about this? What's to stop Trump from nominating another one of his finalists and "pushing" the vote through super fast like they attempted with Kavanaugh?

But "like what they attempted with Kavanaugh" is exactly what I'm saying. Kavanaugh got nominated July 10. He's only just now getting to a possible vote. That's three months. There's literally no way to get someone in before midterms. It's now or a vague chance of speeding things up and maybe getting someone in the lame duck session but the political calculus of what that would mean are a complete mystery as of now. Likely there's no way to get an ultra conservative at that time and definitely not after midterms unless something goes nuts.

On top of that getting him withdrawn is basically up to Kavanaugh and Trump. Trump's a stubborn shit that can't admit to wrongdoing and Kavanaugh is obviously a pampered frat boy that's never had to answer to anything he's done so of fucking course he isn't going to just run away.
 

Morrigan

Spear of the Metal Church
Member
Oct 24, 2017
34,625
But "like what they attempted with Kavanaugh" is exactly what I'm saying. Kavanaugh got nominated July 10. He's only just now getting to a possible vote. That's three months. There's literally no way to get someone in before midterms. It's now or a vague chance of speeding things up and maybe getting someone in the lame duck session but the political calculus of what that would mean are a complete mystery as of now. Likely there's no way to get an ultra conservative at that time and definitely not after midterms unless something goes nuts.

On top of that getting him withdrawn is basically up to Kavanaugh and Trump. Trump's a stubborn shit that can't admit to wrongdoing and Kavanaugh is obviously a pampered frat boy that's never had to answer to anything he's done so of fucking course he isn't going to just run away.

I see. I'm pessimistic as always, but that's decent news I suppose. Assuming Kavanaugh isn't confirmed. Which I'm also pessimistic about. Sigh.

Thanks for the explanation.
 

Molecule

Member
Nov 2, 2017
1,691
I hope he doesn't get confirmed. But seeing how much bullshit has transpired since Trump took office I wouldn't be surprised if he does get confirmed and none of this matters.
 

gutter_trash

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
17,124
Montreal
Joe Biden's comment during the Anita Hill vs Clearance Thomas hearing makes Biden not the right choice for 2020.

Today, Joe Biden's name comes up again and again because of his handling Anita Hill's hearing.
 

Vestal

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
2,297
Tampa FL

Double 0

Member
Nov 5, 2017
7,553
Are you kidding me, there's now an allegation right before Clinton's impeachment? The impeachment he helped spearhead?

What. The. Fuck.
 

Lifendz

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,398
Has the statute run on all of these claims? Christ, I would love for criminal charges to be brought against this fuck.
 

PhoenixDark

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,089
White House
Several of my coworkers believe that these accusations would happen for whoever trump nominates for supreme court because they think all of accusers are lying and just trying to delay the vote until midterms so that dems can block every nominee until 2020

That's why Neil Gorsuch went through an ugly confirmation process including multiple sexual assault accusations. Oh wait, he didn't, because he didn't rape anyone and he sailed through the confirmation process with ease.
 

Deleted member 42

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 24, 2017
16,939
They really let Trump just go out and blab for almost 2 hours

Then the second he finished they drop the bomb again
 

Commedieu

Banned
Nov 11, 2017
15,025
No, it's someone else. Said Kavanaugh slammed her against a wall after leaving a bar in 1998.
No, it's someone else. Said Kavanaugh slammed her against a wall after leaving a bar in 1998.

Nope separate.. From 1998.. It was anonymous though. According to NBC it happened outside a bar where Kavanaugh was seen shit faced slamming a woman against a wall.

Its very thin atm, given that its anonymous.

He needs to be investigated. Fuck this animal.
 

studyguy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,282
That's why Neil Gorsuch went through an ugly confirmation process including multiple sexual assault accusations. Oh wait, he didn't, because he didn't rape anyone and he sailed through the confirmation process with ease.
It's almost as though even if you vehemently disagree with a nominee politically, so long as they kept their nose clean, the democrat minority in the senate can't even hold the line with their own party considering red state dems voted for Gorsuch too.
 

RiPPn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,562
Phoenix
McConnell didn't want Kavanaugh because of baggage to begin with, but Trump pushed him forward. Once that happened they pretty much had to cling with him because of the timetable. They really only get one shot at this before midterms. And that's with a really accelerated timeline for Kavanaugh to begin with. If they withdraw him now then it'll be at least another 3 months before they could even vote on someone else. That puts us basically into December in a lame duck session with Democrats possibly about to come in and take the Senate.
Someone posted a chart of previous SCOTUS nomination to confirmations. They have put someone up in as quick as 2 weeks. If Kavenaugh falls through you can be damn sure they will fast track someone in to that seat. Kavanaugh is not do or die.
 

Imperfected

Member
Nov 9, 2017
11,737
We're back at the top of the hour with another update on Kavanaugh's confirmation hearings, or as General Mills has dubbed it, "OOPS! All Crimes!"
 

GrooveCommand

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
1,340
So how can we prevent Trump from picking the next nominee? Clearly Trump does not perform his due diligence in selecting nominees for the supreme court, this should be disqualifying for both Kavanaugh AND Trump.
 

lenovox1

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,995
I see. I'm pessimistic as always, but that's decent news I suppose. Assuming Kavanaugh isn't confirmed. Which I'm also pessimistic about. Sigh.

Thanks for the explanation.

Oh, no, his eventual confirmation is still the most likely scenario even with his chances dwindling day by day.

So how can we prevent Trump from picking the next nominee? Clearly Trump does not perform his due diligence in selecting nominees for the supreme court, this should be disqualifying for both Kavanaugh AND Trump.

We don't? It is a constitutional duty of the president's.