Valve tax...
You mean video games industry-wide tax. For fucks sake, Valve didn't come up with the 70/30 split.
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Mike Rose (CEO of PC publisher NoMoreRobots) publishes Steam game sales analysis (average game making 16k a year, down 47% from 2018) [See threadmark]
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Valve tax...
You mean video games industry-wide tax. For fucks sake, Valve didn't come up with the 70/30 split.
Oh I see lol. Not much to discuss till he publish his "analysis" then.
People were alerady saying this in 2017, yet quoting myself :
https://galyonk.in/steam-in-2017-129c0e6be260 Sergey Galyonkin ( Epic game store / steam spy ) GDC 2017.
Steam Top 2 fucking thousand was pretty much unaffected by the increasing number on game released on steam ( for comparison in 2015, 2,964 games were released on steam ).
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So how is the EGS tax any better?
Or are we just parroting Sweeney's libertarian talking points now only when its against Valve?
This is a deeply flawed analysis.
Also, I WISH the average steam game made that much a year lol! If it did my friends and I would want to release more games.
Also, I WISH the average steam game made that much a year lol! If it did my friends and I would want to release more games.
Just curious. Did you by any chance click on the linked results? Because your post is 100% wrong.
Unless the majority of pubs/devs on steam releases their numbers, this assumptions makes no sense.
Well, no. If they're using the median (as they should), then the megahits won't be bumping everything up. The median is much less susceptible to outliers. For example, if ten people in a room each make a game, and the first nine games don't sell a single copy, but the tenth one sells a million, then the average sales is 100K, but the median is zero.
They shouldn't be using the word "average" though if the median is being used. That's just poor clarity.
I don't think this is relevant to their point. This number is fucking bad. Absolutely dire. Additional information that basically amounts to "hey, you might be even more screwed on Console X" doesn't really help the diagnosis here.
An interesting look - Mike always writes compelling stuff!
A few things that stand out as important outliers to the analysis, IMO:
Oh, and I think worrying about subscription services on games sales is a false flag right now - but might be an actual thing to consider by next year.
A few things that stand out as important outliers to the analysis, IMO:
- The big one: the summer steam sale, which is where back catalog dictates the vast majority of transactions on Steam (and in my experience, for PC games sales in the west full stop), was still finishing up, as it ended July 9. This has a MASSIVE impact on new game releases (which was the dataset reviewed for this analysis), as it has substantial negative effects on 1st party discoverability (aka "the front page of the store"), purchase behaviors (aka "why spend $20 on one new game, when I can spend $20 on four games that are critical darlings?) and the types of games released (aka "a lot of veteran developers and publishers know releasing new games in this window is a little dicey because of the before statements, so they choose not launch"). I don't think this fully discredits the conclusions or the methodology, but it definitely is a massive consideration towards launch & shelf revenue models for a title.
- Because of the above date selected & summer sale implications, it also makes the YoY comparison double dangerous. In 2018, Steam Summer sale started much earlier (June 28th-July 4th), so comparing revenue and sale rate/attach rate has outliers on both sides, with both scenarios having significant depression due to market conditions (again, this is an opinion that would require actual scrutiny!).
- The "algorithm" for calculating year one revenue based on web-published based public data is super duper shaky in my experience. It's good enough for broad strokes (which is why I think this analysis is compelling as is, and not wrong or bad), but there are a litany of reasons why using that to dictate a business plan level conclusion is not ideal. Steam Spy-esque looks are great for high level scans, but it'd be much more ideal to review a Superdata or typical DMP type of conversion schema to get an understanding of actual unit/revenue result. Since most companies don't have that kind of resource, I don't think this is as big a deal as others might.
- July-August is typically a pretty "slow" 30d window for games sales, compared to Fall/Winter, or a 1Y look (which is tricky to do with the available public datasets, granted). Still good enough for a representative sample, but that seems like a massive caveat.
- The price point data slices are a good practical abstract, but due to the 700+ titles excluded from the analysis via the >10 reviews filter, I'd be more pessimistic towards all titles analyzed posted at the $10 price point, as contrary to popular belief many many many of those 700 games aren't just auto-generated shovelware: they are legitimate "games" from actual people. They might not (and 95%, don't) have the production quality of non-shovelware attempts, but a lot of indie developers (think students, daydreamers, game jammers) start here.
- Removing outliers to assess consistency is worthwhile, but I think that's a dangerous boundary to set for dictating health on PC games sales, as most experienced people in games publishing will tell you that games business is by and large hit driven. That said, if I'm a smaller PC developer, I'd be a fucking idiot to plan my runway length on outlier performance, so this is a small quibble - but I would personally strongly recommend re-including those top and bottom 5% revenue generators for all titles above the $30 price point to provide a better understanding of the premise: how well PC games sell on Steam.
- Finally, and I personally haven't ever done big business analysis towards this, but how the ritual of Early Access for game "preview launches" for more established developers has significant ramifications for a 30d game launch window, both in the data ingested in Mike's analysis (I'm not 100% sure, but I believe there's no way currently via Steamworks API or Steam Spy API to slice out Early Access releases/launches from standard atypical releases/launches) and generally selling a game in the year of our lord 2019. Sometimes the most successful (non-outlier) sellers have slow AF EA launches, and build a community that in turn makes a massive "actual launch". A lot of titles Early Access, especially again from vet studios, so I think this is a pretty important caveat to consider if you're trying to assess how you should sell a game on Steam.
Oh, and I think worrying about subscription services on games sales is a false flag right now - but might be an actual thing to consider by next year.
Doesn't seem like folks here care about any of that. These Tweets fit right into their anti-Steam rhetoric that's been in flavor this year.
Easy how? The average user isn't going to curate all the filters to only see what they want. Certain things should not be on the store period or be in a seperate section.
When steam has a giant sale and you check games under $10 you know what comes up? Adult anime games along side high quality indie games.
Adult stuff, and the early access games that some of which should not even be on the store in the state they are in all get added to one giant pool.
Steam needs better curation, they know it too.
Adult anime games? You dont use Steam's own curation tools and yet you want to say Steam needs more curation?
I'm gonna go with there's too many games. I have a wishlist of stuff where i only put things that i really, really wanna play. It's got hundreds of games in it. I could quit my job, dedicate the entirety of my time to nothing but gaming and sleeping and i still wouldn't be able to play everything i want. And then on top of that there are certain genres that are completely oversaturated. Who the fuck is asking for more metroidvanias and roguelites and survival games?
Every dev believes their game is special and deserves success. Well i'm sorry, but it's probably not.
Every dev believes their game is special and deserves success. Well i'm sorry, but it's probably not.
Easy because Steam doesn't surface these games in any of its recommendation systems.
you sit at your keyboard and tim sweeney somehow types these posts for you remotely
this new EGS tech is impressive
Anecdotal, but I haven't bought a new game in months, because there's too much shit in my library I haven't played yet already.
thanks for the insights!
For me, yea just too many games. More specifically, too many time sink games. I just don't have time to play other games and so I don't even bother looking for new games much anymore.
It wouldn't matter what storefront your game is on. If I'm not shopping for a new game, you'll get the same money from me on Steam as you would if you were on EGS or Battle.net: nothing.
Does the average user on PSN use filters? Steam is not different than any digital storefront now. I don't see tons of anime games on GOG? Or now Epic store?
Even though I hate epics way of how they handled their store, I think they are trying to avoid what steam has become. Here's the thing, i use to use steam all the time. But since a couple years ago it's been the biggest turn off for me because of all the shit thats on it. Even if lets say I customize the shit out of it to filter out adult anime. There are some early access games by developers I trust I am interested in, im still going to see a giant flood of shit on my page.
And this flood has now bleed over into other online stores where the filters are not as robust like Nintendo's store and PSN.
I have a point.
There are places for those type of games and it's up to valve if they want this to continue. Quality of quantity to me will always win.
Honestly, this doesn't seem surprising. In 2018, there were ~9300 games released on Steam. 20% of that is 1860 games, which means this 20% estimate means 5 games per day. Is the game industry big enough to where we can expect 35 games to be successes every week? The vast majority of gamers only give a shit about AAA titles and maybe a handful of the most high-profile indies. Like, back in 2013, there were only 565 games released on Steam total. That's 6% of what released in 2018. This data seems to pretty clearly show that the market can't really support 17 times the games that it did back in 2013. Shocking!
What I'd be way more interested in knowing is: What is the cutoff for similar success? If you took the average revenue for games in 2013, what percentage of games released now are hitting those kinds of numbers? If it's 6%, then nothing has really changed, and Steam Direct basically just opened things up for more devs to fail. If it's more than 6%, then things are actually better today than in 2013, despite all of the failed releases. If it's less than 6%, then that would be really worrying.
What I'd be way more interested in knowing is: What is the cutoff for similar success? If you took the average revenue for games in 2013, what percentage of games released now are hitting those kinds of numbers? If it's 6%, then nothing has really changed, and Steam Direct basically just opened things up for more devs to fail. If it's more than 6%, then things are actually better today than in 2013, despite all of the failed releases. If it's less than 6%, then that would be really worrying.
"I move my goalposts now"
FIrst you say they need curation, now you say you need that curation handed you to on a silver-platter. And you use the consoles as your example? That environment that is famous for ignoring indie developers until they become huge?
12% is less than 30%
Anyway, please don't confuse criticism of Steam for anti-Valve agenda.
The adult stuff is opt-in only. If you're seeing it, you asked for it.
the problem isn't "too much shovelware" or "bad curation" it's
1. steam users have had a billion good games available to them at prices that allowed them to purchase games faster than they could conceivably complete them
2. AAA games (on consoles as well) are switching to the GaaS model and retaining extended playtime, exacerbating the backlog problem.
1. steam users have had a billion good games available to them at prices that allowed them to purchase games faster than they could conceivably complete them
2. AAA games (on consoles as well) are switching to the GaaS model and retaining extended playtime, exacerbating the backlog problem.
This
The notion that having a new store will resolve the backlog issue or the fact will make people buy their games is hilarious.
The matter of the fact is there are far more games coming out than ever before and there's just not enough time to play them all
You have more than 2-3 platforms competing with each other compared to how it was during the 1990s and before
This is true competition, if your game isn't selling well, it's because your competition is doing a better job attracting people to their game over yours
Sure, 'criticism'
*Goes and uses well known libertarian talking points, the same ones spouted by Tim Sweeney*
Odd that no one has called Steam's cut a tax until Sweeney started to do so on twitter, while at the same time avoiding calling his own 12% cut a tax.
Or in your universe, does a tax not exist if its smaller or you its for something 'believe' is righteous?
I have 3 filters on Steam
-visual novel
-multiplayer
-early Access
I literally never get any shovelware in any recommendations.
I regularly browse "games like this" when checking up on some games on my wishlist. I add at least 1 game a week to my wishlist this way, on average.
Steam ain't perfect, but the tools are there.
The real issue is, too many (quality) games, not nearly enough time. On PC, given backwards compatibility going all the way back to the 80s (praise be to CD Project and GOG), there are TENS OF THOUSANDS of good games, and any new release is ALWAYS competing against ALL OF THEM. There's no real way around that.
This really has nothing to do with Steam and more to do with the video game market being over saturated. Just like any market, that has more product than people need. If you think you're going to quit your day job and become the next Notch, then you'll have another thing coming. Which is what I think has been happening for the last year plus.
I think we might have had a minor misunderstanding. In the images of the tweets, it shows that the "average" numbers reported reflect the median, but the mean numbers were provided as well. In the case of revenue, mean revenue was significantly greater than median revenue, which is what I meant to be referencing and speculating about regarding the influence of megahits. Based on the example you provided, I think we ultimately agree! :)
I've edited my original post a bit to make it clearer.
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yep yep and yep
I have no filters and I have literally never seen a piece of shovelware on my main Store page.
I would suggest to not derail this thread with storefront wars, since it is about Steam sales.
You are the person that brought up the "Steam Tax" a term only used their most vocal competitor.
Dont throw stones if you live in a glass house.
i almost made mention of it too but yes, this is extremely important. Half of my current backlog is "old" RPGs that i now have the financial wherewithal to play. I have to weigh the purchase of any new game against the dozens of trails/FF/tales games i haven't even touched or purchased yet. Shit, i caved and bought Okami during the summer sale and i have no idea when i'll get to that.
I'm not a supporter of EGS, I don't own anything from the EGS, don't have it installed. I don't agree with their approach but think I might understand their reasoning behind it. Even though it alienates a lot of great games/developers.
Right now there is this giant flood gate on Switch, PSN , Xbl of games some of which are straight up mobile, or just garbage games. And there are a giant influx of indie developers now which makes it hard if for a lot of games to sell because they fall into similar genre's.
What makes matters worse is there are stores that are ok with having adult/anime, dating sims on them on top of garbage mods that are put on early access as a game using literal engine assets.
So either two things needs to change, either the developers make something super out there thats different enough to rise out of all the rest which sometimes doesn't always happen. Or some stuff get's taken off and separated from the rest of the listings.
Ah, yes. My mistake!
This is honestly just embarrassing. I promise Valve wasn't harmed by that person's post. They aren't "throwing stones."
edit: And you didn't even have the right poster? Maybe calm down
No you don't because you literally had to go out of your way to enable adult games on the steam store as they are hidden by default.
I guess libertarian style talking points are fine on gaming side when it supports someone's argument.
i don't even browse steam period because it's going to result in me buying more games i won't play anytime soon.
OP
OP
I wish people wouldn't call the cut into question, I don't think taking a lower cut makes anything magically better at all
We're just in a murderer's row of quality games, content, sub services, etc etc
I am literally begging my soul to not buy anything in September
Greedfall is calling my name it is insane
We're just in a murderer's row of quality games, content, sub services, etc etc
I am literally begging my soul to not buy anything in September
Greedfall is calling my name it is insane
Even if you take out the adult stuff, theres so much indie and early access. I mean there are games on nintendo switch and PSN like black tiger among mobile games that should not be there.
Curation is to me the biggest issue with developers not making enough. I think steam takes a little too much of a cut, but I THINK the bigger issue is not enough people seeing their games.
Truly one of the dumbest and most ignorant statement I have ever read here.
So when you curate away the developers that you think dont deserve to even attempt to sell their games. Which games should win?
Every indie developer has this idea they are the 'temporarily embarassed under-performing dev" that just needs to get rid of the chaff holding them back in order to start selling games.
When every other developer also thinks this way.
Are we going to make Valve the kingmaker? Literally deciding which devs get to make money or not?
What backlogs? My backlogs spread across PC and PS4. On PC it's spread across Steam, GoG, and uPlay. Backlogs doesn't care about what the platformis you know?
I just opened my Steam store page. I can't find any low tier game, in fact most of it are well known title that I don't have interest in. I have to dig really hard to find those low tier games or big titty anime games.
It's nice to see Papa Tim's propaganda succesful. Valve tax lol. What bout Sony tax, Microsoft tax, and Nintendo tax?
PS : Someone please tell me how to find those anime hentai games. I can't find it but people seems to be able to find it easily on their store page.
So curation isn't a issue minus adult games? I listed other issues besides that you know?