neonneongod

Member
Feb 21, 2019
294
This is the truth.There's no way around it and honestly, I'm not seeing a solution that doesn't involve having developers that can't make it in the market drop out until it stabilizes.
this is the cold hard truth and it genuinely, honestly sucks for the indie devs who basically have a choice between making their passion project and scraping by or finding another job.

that's capitalism for you. Ech.

The hell are you talking about bro. I have my Steam page curated, and I still have no fucking clue or care what half the games I see are or want to be. I mean if you curate Steam within an inch of its life I suppose you might not see them, but I don't bother with half that shit. I see all kinds of low-tier garbage.

the only thing ive done with curation of steam besides turn on 18+ games is sub to the PCMR and some anime games curator back in like 2015. the top of my front page, with basically everything relevant to me:
Part 1
Part 2

i don't know what people are doing that results in garbage on their steam page tbh
 

collige

Member
Oct 31, 2017
12,772
The fix is to have UBI so that people aren't reliant on their games succeeding to survive imo. Not talking about just games either.
 
See threadmark for methodology
Oct 27, 2017
135
There's a lot of context seemingly being left out of the discussion here, the first two slides say
Mike Rose said:
Where are these numbers coming from?

Everything you're about to read is based on rough estimates that come from:
• Years of experience selling games on Steam
• Years of experience analysing sales data for video games
• Years of cross-referencing estimates with other developers
• All calculations are based on publicly available stats, including Steam
group numbers, store page review numbers, prices, algorithms for
calculating year one revenue from month one revenue, and more
• All data is from Steam, since Steam makes up roughly 95% of PC sales

Regardless, these are still all estimates, and should be treated as such.

The data

• Around 900 games were released on Steam between July 5 – August 6, 2019
• Any game that did not achieve 10+ user reviews was removed (around 700
titles removed, i.e. around 78% of released titles will make less than $5,000 in
their first year)
• AAA titles removed (not particularly useful knowing how Wolfenstein sold)
• Then, the top and bottom 5% (ranked by revenue made) were removed, to
reduce noise from outliers
• The data left contains roughly 170 games released between these dates

Regardless, these are still all estimates, and should be treated as such.

So, when he says "the average game" on slide 4 he means not AAA, only games released over one month (July 2019, contains a few days of the summer sale) , no games with fewer than 10 reviews, and even after all these exclusions only the middle 90% are counted, i.e. 170 games, and to top it all off, it's all estimates pulled from "years of experience," extrapolation from group membership and review counts, and "more." He has no actual sales data. What's the 95% confidence interval on all these estimates?
 

neonneongod

Member
Feb 21, 2019
294
if you browse the trash a lot, the algorithm thinks you are interested in it, and shows you more.

jim sterling experienced this.
ooooh, fair point. I don't do much browsing because most of the time i know what i want to purchase and go straight to the store page, so the only data the algorithm has to work with is what i want enough to buy on the spot. guess i'm an edge case.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,505
I've been buying less and less games. I haven't bought a single game this year at launch, and the ones I do buy are usually on a good sale. But it's not because of money, it's time. I just don't have enough time to keep up with what I've bought in the past along with good games coming to game pass, ps plus, games with gold, etc. I also have my circulation of multiplayer games that I always come back to over the years.

I do wonder if the constant onslaught of good games, combined with GaaS/Multiplayer games designed to keep you coming back over and over are just sucking people's time and creating less of a reason to buy new games at full price.
 

Ferulci

Member
Oct 31, 2017
210
So indie developers aren't complaining about how Steam is too big? They don't think the algorithms and the curation are screwing them out of money? They don't think 30% is too much of a cut for Valve, despite it being the standard on PSN, Xbox, Nintendo Eshop and the App Store?
Nice, you are moving the goalposts.
Let me repeat : what you said ("Indie developers keep blaming everyone but themselves for their games failing. ") is pure ignorance and if you talked with any of them, you would know that.
Now, it's up to you to educate yourself on that matter by looking any of the hundreds of blogs, youtube channels, website or reddits where you will find developers being critical about themselves and talking about their shortcomings. Hell you even got a indie creators topic on Era. Or you can keep saying ignorant (and incorrect) stuff.

As for your second post, Steam ecosystem is seen by the vast majority of developers (from your placeholder regular studio to the indie darling to the AAA) as "flawed" at best. That's not hating on Steam or "blaming other for your failures", that's pointing out facts so that everyone can try to get a better ecosystem.
Are they all whiners that are wrong or maybe they are onto something ? You tell me.

And if you think developpers don't have any problems with App Store policies, you are in for a surprise. The difference is that there are no leverage : if you want to release a game for iPad, you have to deal with Apple.
Epic Store (for now) seems to give developers leverage, that why you hear them more.
 
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Armaros

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,954
I've been buying less and less games. I haven't bought a single game this year at launch, and the ones I do buy are usually on a good sale. But it's not because of money, it's time. I just don't have enough time to keep up with what I've bought in the past along with good games coming to game pass, ps plus, games with gold, etc. I also have my circulation of multiplayer games that I always come back to over the years.

I do wonder if the constant onslaught of good games, combined with GaaS/Multiplayer games designed to keep you coming back over and over are just sucking people's time and creating less of a reason to buy new games at full price.

Hell everyone is now rereleasing games in all forms, Even MMOs, the new wave of 'classic' servers.
 

Sandersson

Banned
Feb 5, 2018
2,535
Love how no one called it tax before, but with Valve its the Valve tax.

Never heard anyone talk about the Sony tax, the Epic tax, the Nintendo tax or the Microsoft tax...
"Im not trying to poison the well, im trying to have a discussion."

•Uses extremely loaded terms incorrectly to trigger emotional responses from people•
 

Deleted member 57019

User-requested account closure
Banned
May 25, 2019
6,145
I've been buying less and less games. I haven't bought a single game this year at launch, and the ones I do buy are usually on a good sale. But it's not because of money, it's time. I just don't have enough time to keep up with what I've bought in the past along with good games coming to game pass, ps plus, games with gold, etc. I also have my circulation of multiplayer games that I always come back to over the years.

I do wonder if the constant onslaught of good games, combined with GaaS/Multiplayer games designed to keep you coming back over and over are just sucking people's time and creating less of a reason to buy new games at full price.

Only new PC game I've bought this year has been Resident Evil 2 remake. GaaS titles keep me busy.
 

Htown

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,586
i don't know what people are doing that results in garbage on their steam page tbh
chances are they just assume a game is garbage if they haven't heard of it before

it's all just 2D indie shovelware crap to them, because taking the 5 seconds to see if a game reviews well or is similar to a game they have been playing is too much
 

eonden

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,378
chances are they just assume a game is garbage if they haven't heard of it before

it's all just 2D indie shovelware crap to them, because taking the 5 seconds to see if a game reviews well or is similar to a game they have been playing is too much
Last time someone actually showed the crap, it was mostly niche great indie games. So probably.

That is not to say that there is a ton of crap in Steam, and that sometimes some crap does make it to the top, but it is not as common as many try to showcase (and less nowadays as the "upcoming" exploit was "fixed").
 

sauce

Member
Oct 25, 2017
427
There's a lot of context seemingly being left out of the discussion here, the first two slides say


So, when he says "the average game" on slide 4 he means not AAA, only games released over one month (July 2019, contains a few days of the summer sale) , no games with fewer than 10 reviews, and even after all these exclusions only the middle 90% are counted, i.e. 170 games, and to top it all off, it's all estimates pulled from "years of experience," extrapolation from group membership and review counts, and "more." He has no actual sales data. What's the 95% confidence interval on all these estimates?
lmao i didn't actually click through to the methodology. man, how are you supposed to conclude literally anything from that??
 

Armaros

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,954
lmao i didn't actually click through to the methodology. man, how are you supposed to conclude literally anything from that??

It doesn't, someone doing something like this in other industries would get laughed out of the industry, but apparently its fine concrete conclusions using such a flimsy methodology with gaming.
 

Error 52

Banned
Nov 1, 2017
2,032
We need to head back to 2011 and figure out how many people blaming Valve's lack of curation for the "indiepocalypse" were sitting there complaining about how strict Valve's curation was.
 

Philtastic

Member
Jan 3, 2018
601
Canada
This year, I've been mostly playing Assassin's Creed: Odyssey (released Oct 2018 - ~140 hours played total), The Division 2 (March 2019 - 120 hours), Earth Defense Force 4.1 (July 2016 PC - 20 hours), Earth Defense Force 5 (July 2019 PC - 60 hours), Dynasty Warriors 7 (Dec 2018 PC - 10 hours), Dynasty Warriors 8 (May 2014 PC - 30 hours), Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands (March 2017 - 110 hours), and Watch Dogs (May 2014 - 20 hours). Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Breakpoint comes out in a month and will probably consume my free time for the rest of the year along with trying to get around to the glut of AC: Odyssey DLC.

I still want to get around to playing Watch Dogs 2 before Legion comes out, Mad Max, Middle Earth: Shadow of War, Shadow of the Tomb Raider, Hitman 2016, Crusader Kings 2, No Man's Sky with its recent updates, Fallout 4, The Witcher 3's DLC (criminal, I know. After 180 hours, I got tired of the gameplay), finish Divinity: Original Sin 2 (70 hours in but still in Act 2), Resident Evil 6, and replay Vampire the Masquerade: Bloodlines before 2 comes out to name some games that I already own and still want to play.

I play a lot of games and spend a lot of time gaming, but I have a huge backlog and don't have any time for more games, particularly most indie games that, in my opinion, aren't competitive with the huge catalog of past and present quality games. There's just too many good games period, thus prices will necessarily go down due to large supply and a demand limited by available free time.
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,045
That's something I don't understand. I have a backlog on Steam, on UPlay, on Switch, hell, even on PS2. They're all the same backlog, because the issue is I don't have time generally, not "Steam time" or "Switch time".
Does creating a new storefront make people's days longer?
No but Switch's versatility maximize the time I can gather to play videogames.
That's why it is a godsend.
 

EllipsisBreak

One Winged Slayer
Member
Aug 6, 2019
2,234
Honestly, this doesn't seem surprising. In 2018, there were ~9300 games released on Steam. 20% of that is 1860 games, which means this 20% estimate means 5 games per day. Is the game industry big enough to where we can expect 35 games to be successes every week? The vast majority of gamers only give a shit about AAA titles and maybe a handful of the most high-profile indies. Like, back in 2013, there were only 565 games released on Steam total. That's 6% of what released in 2018. This data seems to pretty clearly show that the market can't really support 17 times the games that it did back in 2013. Shocking!

What I'd be way more interested in knowing is: What is the cutoff for similar success? If you took the average revenue for games in 2013, what percentage of games released now are hitting those kinds of numbers? If it's 6%, then nothing has really changed, and Steam Direct basically just opened things up for more devs to fail. If it's more than 6%, then things are actually better today than in 2013, despite all of the failed releases. If it's less than 6%, then that would be really worrying.
I want to draw more attention to this post, as it is a good one. No matter what Valve does, no matter what anyone does, it is simply not possible for the top 20% of games to succeed. 35 games per week is utter madness.
 

Gentlemen

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,145
Going to be absolutely devastating for these developers if Valve loses its fight with the EU over regional pricing and suddenly everyone is only paying pennies on the euro for new games.
 

Papacheeks

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,620
Watertown, NY
Adult stuff on steam is always opt in dude, you're not seeing it unless you've agreed to see it (i.e. that age page which gives you content warnings). And Valve already did curation back its early days, and everyone hated it - consumers, developers, and even Valve themselves. They've written on their blog about it before. One man's trash is another man's treasure, it's up to you as a consumer to use the filters Steam provides and the reviews other users give to decide what you want. Not anyone's fault but your own if you're too braindead to do that, when you can probably do that on Amazon for anything else you buy. Otherwise you've got bigger problems to worry about.

My point is now places like psn, Eshop are flooded with games, and not all are going to be played and not all should even be on there. There should be better curation so games like black tiger don't either make it on there or share the front page real-estate.
 

voOsh

Member
Apr 5, 2018
1,692
Everybody wants to be in, but they want to shut the door behind them.

Well said.

Arguments in favor of strict store curation are not appealing to me because it will inevitably block worthwhile games. I prefer to have access to everything and I will be personally responsible for researching and finding the titles that interest me. I'm not looking for stores to tell me what to purchase.
 
Jun 26, 2018
3,829
Going to be absolutely devastating for these developers if Valve loses its fight with the EU over regional pricing and suddenly everyone is only paying pennies on the euro for new games.

Wouldn't the end result just be prices jacked up to be the same as the most expensive region? Can't imagine publishers are gonna just let people buy games for cheap.
 

Crayon

Member
Oct 26, 2017
15,580
I don't see what's so scary about this. It's the most basic supply-and-demand issue. Nobody needs another good indie game when even the great ones are crowding eachother out.
 

sauce

Member
Oct 25, 2017
427
My point is now places like psn, Eshop are flooded with games, and not all are going to be played and not all should even be on there. There should be better curation so games like black tiger don't either make it on there or share the front page real-estate.
Well this thread's just about Steam, which I already said gives you the tools to deal with this. If you can block a twitter account so you don't have to see it's tweets ever again, you can click ignore on a Steam game or an entire genre and not see it again. I don't know how it works on PSN, but you'll have to wait for them to pick up the slack and give you that kind of stuff if they don't already have it. But just like the internet in general, it's up to you to curate your experience yourself dude. If having that kind of power over yourself is too much for you, just leave it be and wait for word of mouth to get to you on the next big thing.
 

werezompire

Zeboyd Games
Verified
Oct 26, 2017
13,010
There are too many good games.

Yep.

I keep a list of games I'm playing and games I want to play this year alone, there's over a dozen games on the high priority list.
Bloodstained
Mario Maker 2
Fire Emblem: 3H
Dicey Dungeon
Children of Morta
Gears 5
Control
River City Girls
Daemon X Machina
Astral Chain
Link's Awakening remake
DQ11 Switch
Luigi's Mansion 3

Look at that list. Is there anything there that really screams out as being not worth playing?

A dozen or so games might not sound like a lot (that's just 1 new game a month!), but a lot of these games are really long games or games with huge replay value. Then you throw in a GaaS game like Path of Exile, old games I haven't gotten around to, favorites I want to replay, and that's how I'm in the situation of thinking things like "Yeah, Link's Awakening is probably my favorite Game Boy game of all-time, but am I actually going to get around to playing the remake?" or "Who do I cut, the new "totally-not-Castlevania" or the new "totally River City Rampage?" There's too many games, good games, amazing games even, and if you're someone who makes games that can be a scary thing.
 
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Jawmuncher

Crisis Dino
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
41,385
Ibis Island
The indie space is brutal. There's so much competition even if you're on a curated store front. Just look at the Eshop and how quickly things will go on sale to garner interest and try and make a profit just like on steam (I bought Xonic for 89 cents just like the rest of you).

It's a shame there isn't much that can be done to really fix this. Outside indie perhaps trying to work together to make bigger titles, rather than going with smaller teams and praying for a hit.
Thankfully it does seem that most Devs don't go all in until they have a hit.
 

Thrill_house

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,241
With so many new games coming out, yeah I'm sure the competition is fierce. One of the reasons I have no problem passing on games if devs try some stupid shit...go ahead, I have PLENTY of alternatives ;)
 

Jessie

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,921
Not really a surprise. We're in the tail end of the indie golden age. The same thing happened to indie books. Back in 2011 you could make a killing selling indie books.
 

ShinUltramanJ

Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,960
I'm not a supporter of EGS, I don't own anything from the EGS, don't have it installed. I don't agree with their approach but think I might understand their reasoning behind it. Even though it alienates a lot of great games/developers.

Right now there is this giant flood gate on Switch, PSN , Xbl of games some of which are straight up mobile, or just garbage games. And there are a giant influx of indie developers now which makes it hard if for a lot of games to sell because they fall into similar genre's.

What makes matters worse is there are stores that are ok with having adult/anime, dating sims on them on top of garbage mods that are put on early access as a game using literal engine assets.

So either two things needs to change, either the developers make something super out there thats different enough to rise out of all the rest which sometimes doesn't always happen. Or some stuff get's taken off and separated from the rest of the listings.

Or like Steam, you allow users who bought the games, to offer their thoughts on them. That way you know what's worth looking at and what isn't.
 

Uzzy

Gabe’s little helper
Member
Oct 25, 2017
31,434
Hull, UK
The indie space is brutal. There's so much competition even if you're on a curated store front. Just look at the Eshop and how quickly things will go on sale to garner interest and try and make a profit just like on steam (I bought Xonic for 89 cents just like the rest of you).

It's a shame there isn't much that can be done to really fix this. Outside indie perhaps trying to work together to make bigger titles, rather than going with smaller teams and praying for a hit.
Thankfully it does seem that most Devs don't go all in until they have a hit.

All a curated store front does is buy time for those lucky few who win the golden ticket and get in early. You'll get a year or two tops before the store becomes crowded out with other high quality titles all competing for customers time and/or money.
 

thirtypercent

Member
Oct 18, 2018
680
It's expected for literally every thread somehow involving Steam but those wheeling out their tired 'no curation is the ill of the world, why doesn't Valve solve all our problems' bullshit are missing the forerst for the trees, which leads to misguided conclusions and illusionary easy solutions.

Same goes for devs, whining about xyz won't help you, there's no quick fix, no one specific to blame. For next week I have 8 games on my wishlist that I plan to buy, 4 on the 17th alone. Now some could turn out to be crap but they're all titles the devs clearly put a lot of time and work into. And even if those were the only ones releasing there's no way they all would sell, the average gamer doesn't need a new game every week. Add to that dozens of average to good titles that don't stand out but would never get filtered out by curation and supply across all platforms and stores is burying demand to an unhealthy ratio. And we've not even talked about bundles, Game Pass, PS+, Epic desperately throwing around free games and so on.

Speaking of, taking Tim's moneybags might look like a nice way out now but how long will that last, do you want to built a business on that foundation? Bringing up the Switch is weird too, when I go into the eShop it has become a bigger mess than Steam because while there are fewer releases, the tools to filter them aren't there at all. EGS will get there soon too.

Also I don't particularly trust the numbers in that analysis, too many unknown variables and caveats and certainly not nearly precise enough to get much use out of it. Change some things around and you'll get a very different picture.
 
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