Tarot Deck

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
4,251
PokeSmash - 6903k vs ACNH - 6175k


Gap Currently - 728k


Updated Week

W1: 2603k - 1880k
W2: 827k - 728k
W3: 700k - 423k
W4: 456k - 293k
W5: 498k - 286k
W6: 351k - 284k
W7: 289k - 260k
W8: 234k - 195k
W9: 105k - 130k
W10: 84k - 102k
W11: 66k - 102k
W12: 50k - 98k
W13: 47k - 77k
W14: 48k - 74k
W15: 38k - 70k
W16: 45k - 53k
W17: 40k - 56k
W18: 33k - 72k
W19: 29k - 94k
W20: 26k - 57k
W21: 25k - 108k
W22: 33k - 106k
W23: 18k - 43k
W24: 17k - 34k
W25: 16k - 32k
W26: 17k - 31k
W27: 12k- 32k
W28: 14k - 30k
W29: 14k - 36k
W30: 16k - 37k
W31: 16k - 23k
W32: 18k - 24k
W33: 18k - 32k
W34: 16k - 32k
W35: 18k - 37k
W36: 20k - 35k
W37: 26k - 57k
W38: 17k - 71k
W39: 19k
W40: 24k

Ok, this is kinda insane.

Never in a million years I would expect AC to be on the same ballpark as pokemon.
 

Zaimokuza

Member
May 14, 2020
981
All this talk about doom
And gloom for ps5 is completely equal to what we had in 1996 when n64 wasn't exploding in japan, while the less powerful console PS1 was selling lke crazy. I wonder if this situation will generate something with 3rd parties but I find it hard.
Is there a possibility that all mid developers that rely on their home market just transition to switch first/exclusives? Maybe with a pc port down the way.
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,215
Even without comparing to Switch do you think the PS5 is the strongest possible offering for a stationary console in Japan, either from a hardware design or software offering standpoint?
Unfortunately, I think designing for Japan would hurt the appeal in the rest of the world for the PS5. I'm imagining a physically smaller and weaker console that is sold in the $300 to $350 range that focuses on the uniqueness of the Dual Sense even more from a software perspective.
 

Deleted member 15360

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,477
People always prefer buying the product with options .

If PS5 Standard Edition : PS5 Digital Edition is 80:20 Globally in the First Year

It doesn't mean that the reality is Physical Medium is stronger on Playstation
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
Unfortunately, I think designing for Japan would hurt the appeal in the rest of the world for the PS5. I'm imagining a physically smaller and weaker console that is sold in the $300 to $350 range that focuses on the uniqueness of the Dual Sense even more from a software perspective.

I would probably agree with that, at least that is more true than saying there's no interest in home consoles in Japan.
 

Kouriozan

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,296
Switch Selling Point is the hybrid nature.

Its not just home console or just portable






Shall I go and say nintendo handheld series wouldn't be as successful if the switch was not primarily a portable ?


Its a hybrid , it can do both the things
Switch is primarily a hybrid.
Yeah, proving even more that some warring points against the Switch is stupid, it's doing well on all fronts.
It's also why it's eating into the typical PlayStation audience, only a couple and usual suspect are absent now.
 

Kanann

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,170
To those who quote me about PS5 softwares that can push hardware.

PS4 already barely had million seller, you should just take 300-400k seller like RE and near million like FF or even the greatest DQ and be happy with it.

MHW2 include.
 

foxuzamaki

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,626
Stock issues or not, Japanese publishers are watching these PS5 numbers closely and there's no way they're feeling good about them. There are also no significant hardware movers in sight. It's going to be a rough road.
I wonder if someone like AniHawk can give us some insight to what the japanese devs are thinking right now
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
If Nintendo had released a flagship title for Holiday 2020 I doubt Momotaro would be as big as it is. Nintendo gave third-parties an open window and Konami took advantage of that to their great benefit.
Flagship title from Nintendo would mean bigger hardware sales and eventually bigger software sales. The only way Momotaro would be affected negatively is with Nintendo releasing Super Mario Party this year.
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
3DS (2012) VS Switch (2020) Peak year

Code:
|----|--------------------|--------------------|
|    |         3DS        |      Switch        |
|----|----------|---------|---------|----------|
|Week|  Weekly  |  2012   |  Weekly |   2020   |
|----|----------|---------|---------|----------|
|  01|   203.605|  203.605|  284.827|   284.827|
|  02|   257.377|  460.982|  116.301|   401.128|
|  03|   101.697|  562.679|   96.458|   497.586|
|  04|    77.519|  640.198|   67.987|   565.573|
|  05|    81.699|  721.897|   75.922|   641.495|
|  06|    69.180|  791.077|  100.961|   741.456|
|  07|    60.231|  851.308|   80.312|   821.768|
|  08|    88.909|  940.217|   41.490|   863.258|
|  09|    72.032|1.012.249|   53.098|   916.356|
|  10|    71.797|1.084.046|   50.585|   967.941|
|  11|    63.717|1.147.763|   57.274| 1.025.215|
|  12|    63.746|1.211.509|  392.576| 1.417.791|
|  13|    94.776|1.306.285|  282.561| 1.700.352|
|  14|   118.072|1.424.357|  154.640| 1.854.992|
|  15|    67.312|1.491.970|   25.313| 1.880.305|
|  16|    62.653|1.554.623|   27.874| 1.908.179|
|  17|    80.561|1.635.184|  107.104| 2.015.284|
|  18|    71.282|1.706.466|  115.043| 2.130.326|
|  19|    88.226|1.794.692|   42.420| 2.172.746|
|  20|    45.063|1.839.755|   38.380| 2.211.126|
|  21|    41.712|1.881.467|   52.557| 2.263.683|
|  22|    51.804|1.933.271|  107.593| 2.371.276|
|  23|   101.718|2.034.989|   68.192| 2.439.468|
|  24|    61.212|2.096.201|   55.187| 2.494.655|
|  25|    56.394|2.152.595|   78.428| 2.573.083|
|  26|    66.953|2.219.548|   93.799| 2.666.882|
|  27|    65.267|2.284.815|   52.250| 2.719.132|
|  28|    51.930|2.336.745|   96.879| 2.816.011|
|  29|    46.633|2.383.378|  113.197| 2.929.208|
|  30|    44.202|2.427.580|  125.231| 3.054.439|
|  31|   235.974|2.663.554|   86.605| 3.141.044|
|  32|   118.786|2.782.340|  173.338| 3.314.382|
|  33|   108.897|2.891.237|  148.699| 3.463.081|
|  34|   107.140|2.998.377|   70.129| 3.533.210|
|  35|    64.921|3.063.298|   78.773| 3.611.983|
|  36|    67.926|3.131.224|   77.611| 3.689.594|
|  37|    57.305|3.188.529|   83.920| 3.773.514|
|  38|    56.970|3.245.529|  110.029| 3.883.543|
|  39|    59.199|3.304.698|   70.542| 3.954.085|
|  40|    77.183|3.381.881|   91.093| 4.045.178|
|  41|    58.233|3.440.114|  108.575| 4.153.753|
|  42|    78.401|3.518.114|   95.852| 4.249.605|
|  43|    60.033|3.578.548|   64.768| 4.314.768|
|  44|    60.079|3.638.627|   86.985| 4.401.358|
|  45|    82.644|3.721.271|  139.200| 4.540.558|
|  46|   186.662|3.889.933|  116.267| 4.656.825|
|  47|   170.559|4.060.492|  179.143| 4.835.968|
|  48|   158.527|4.219.019|  145.178| 4.981.146|
|  49|   154.654|4.373.673|  204.622| 5.185.768|
|  50|   219.103|4.592.776|  229.698| 5.415.466|
|  51|   333.409|4.926.185|         |          |
|  52|   433.788|5.359.973|         |          |
|  53|   266.790|5.626.763|         |          |
|----|----------|---------|---------|----------|

Switch need an avg. of 105.649 for the next 2 weeks to beat 3DS in 2012

Epc9hmAW8AE8gqQ
 

Deleted member 63122

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 16, 2020
9,071
3DS (2012) VS Switch (2020) Peak year

Code:
|----|--------------------|--------------------|
|    |         3DS        |      Switch        |
|----|----------|---------|---------|----------|
|Week|  Weekly  |  2012   |  Weekly |   2020   |
|----|----------|---------|---------|----------|
|  01|   203.605|  203.605|  284.827|   284.827|
|  02|   257.377|  460.982|  116.301|   401.128|
|  03|   101.697|  562.679|   96.458|   497.586|
|  04|    77.519|  640.198|   67.987|   565.573|
|  05|    81.699|  721.897|   75.922|   641.495|
|  06|    69.180|  791.077|  100.961|   741.456|
|  07|    60.231|  851.308|   80.312|   821.768|
|  08|    88.909|  940.217|   41.490|   863.258|
|  09|    72.032|1.012.249|   53.098|   916.356|
|  10|    71.797|1.084.046|   50.585|   967.941|
|  11|    63.717|1.147.763|   57.274| 1.025.215|
|  12|    63.746|1.211.509|  392.576| 1.417.791|
|  13|    94.776|1.306.285|  282.561| 1.700.352|
|  14|   118.072|1.424.357|  154.640| 1.854.992|
|  15|    67.312|1.491.970|   25.313| 1.880.305|
|  16|    62.653|1.554.623|   27.874| 1.908.179|
|  17|    80.561|1.635.184|  107.104| 2.015.284|
|  18|    71.282|1.706.466|  115.043| 2.130.326|
|  19|    88.226|1.794.692|   42.420| 2.172.746|
|  20|    45.063|1.839.755|   38.380| 2.211.126|
|  21|    41.712|1.881.467|   52.557| 2.263.683|
|  22|    51.804|1.933.271|  107.593| 2.371.276|
|  23|   101.718|2.034.989|   68.192| 2.439.468|
|  24|    61.212|2.096.201|   55.187| 2.494.655|
|  25|    56.394|2.152.595|   78.428| 2.573.083|
|  26|    66.953|2.219.548|   93.799| 2.666.882|
|  27|    65.267|2.284.815|   52.250| 2.719.132|
|  28|    51.930|2.336.745|   96.879| 2.816.011|
|  29|    46.633|2.383.378|  113.197| 2.929.208|
|  30|    44.202|2.427.580|  125.231| 3.054.439|
|  31|   235.974|2.663.554|   86.605| 3.141.044|
|  32|   118.786|2.782.340|  173.338| 3.314.382|
|  33|   108.897|2.891.237|  148.699| 3.463.081|
|  34|   107.140|2.998.377|   70.129| 3.533.210|
|  35|    64.921|3.063.298|   78.773| 3.611.983|
|  36|    67.926|3.131.224|   77.611| 3.689.594|
|  37|    57.305|3.188.529|   83.920| 3.773.514|
|  38|    56.970|3.245.529|  110.029| 3.883.543|
|  39|    59.199|3.304.698|   70.542| 3.954.085|
|  40|    77.183|3.381.881|   91.093| 4.045.178|
|  41|    58.233|3.440.114|  108.575| 4.153.753|
|  42|    78.401|3.518.114|   95.852| 4.249.605|
|  43|    60.033|3.578.548|   64.768| 4.314.768|
|  44|    60.079|3.638.627|   86.985| 4.401.358|
|  45|    82.644|3.721.271|  139.200| 4.540.558|
|  46|   186.662|3.889.933|  116.267| 4.656.825|
|  47|   170.559|4.060.492|  179.143| 4.835.968|
|  48|   158.527|4.219.019|  145.178| 4.981.146|
|  49|   154.654|4.373.673|  204.622| 5.185.768|
|  50|   219.103|4.592.776|  229.698| 5.415.466|
|  51|   333.409|4.926.185|         |          |
|  52|   433.788|5.359.973|         |          |
|  53|   266.790|5.626.763|         |          |
|----|----------|---------|---------|----------|

Switch need an avg. of 105.649 for the next 2 weeks to beat 3DS in 2012

Epc9hmAW8AE8gqQ
Can it pass it next week?
 
Jan 20, 2019
10,681
How you mean?

Relatively small monetisation potential or that people will still be spending on existing GaaS game?

GAAS has a change the way companies view things, for example, Valve no longer releases games like they use to do to the fact that they can just sit back and collect money from their GAAS games and from other games.

Sony does the same thing, they try to acquire the Warfram publisher, IMO, with this goal in mind. I dont really know how GAAS perform in Japan so i cant say much about the market there.
 

Djehuty

Member
Sep 2, 2020
1,044
They are not thinking about Japan because they don't make money in Japan so why care about it. Just as Japan did not care for the PS4 while it was a phenomenon in the rest of the world the PS5 will probably perform a lot worse. They are basically leaving the market all but spoken because it's a dying market for anything but handheld devices since years ago.
NO.

that's wrong the Japanese market isn't declining, Nintendo is the only company making games that appeal to that market.
The ps5 isn't selling well because of Sony's own Decisions.
 

dabbling

Member
Dec 3, 2018
413
My predictions (and Famitsu's results):

Week 48 (23 Nov - 29 Nov) - 150k (Famitsu: 145.178 (-4,8k))
Week 49 (30 Nov - 6 Dec) - 180k (Famitsu: 204.622 (+24,6k))
Week 50 (7 Dec - 13 Dec) - 230k (Famitsu: 229.698 (-0,3k))
Week 51 (14 Dec - 20 Dec) - 300k
Week 52 (21 Dec - 27 Dec) - 320k
Week 1/53 (28 Dec - 3 Jan) - 280k

6 million dream lives if your predictions stay this close...

Can it pass it next week?
I will definitely do so.
 

Aostia82

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,366
I thnk that those great Iwata's quotes from last week could be meaningful in trying to understand Switch vs PS5 vastly different reception in Japan so far (so far because PS5 is OBVIOUSLY affected ALSO by shortages)
 

zroid

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
5,785
Canada
I thought the Wii U vs PS5 comparison was a joke. Apparently not! The PS5 is really DOA in Japan. Maybe when the Final Fantasy game releases things will improve. I don't think there is any other title upcoming that will push PS5 sales.
The comparison is striking for sure, but PS5 has a lot more going for it long term than Wii U did. Sony does not respect the Japanese market at all, that's very clear by now, but they know they have certain strong titles in their back pocket because of their global reach and Japanese publishers' deference to them. Wii U was also competing directly with 3DS in terms of Nintendo platforms, whereas PS5 will soon be the only platform on the market beside Switch. PS5 is not going to be strong in Japan, and it's quite likely it will perform worse than PS4, but it's far from completely dead.
 

zroid

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
5,785
Canada
How dare you! I think there are 3 important factors that need to be taken into consideration for this game

- In comparison to NSMBU imo, the franchise was stale and not really as innovative/exciting as others in the same franchise and then there is SMM2

-Multiplayer as well as being an online one to boot I think this could be a huge selling point

- The "Bowser Fury" is an unknown factor as it could be a big deal with a huge amount of new content aka being a new game. Unless they pull a Mario+Luigi Bowser Jr side quest thing then nvm lol
I don't quite know why but I am really hyped for the SM3DW re-release. Even though I 100% the game on Wii U already, and I really don't even know what Bowser's Fury is? It's strange. Anecdotal obviously, but I wonder if other people feel the same.

I have this hunch that it's going to sell really well despite being a Wii U port. Maybe the second biggest Wii U port after MK8DX. It's more just instinct that tells me this though so I can't explain it.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
GAAS has a change the way companies view things, for example, Valve no longer releases games like they use to do to the fact that they can just sit back and collect money from their GAAS games and from other games.

Sony does the same thing, they try to acquire the Warfram publisher, IMO, with this goal in mind. I dont really know how GAAS perform in Japan so i cant say much about the market there.

Ahh, I see what you mean but I'm not sure that's the case when you consider how heavily PlayStation is investing into single player experiences. The only GaaS games SIE has announced for PS5 are Destruction All Stars and GT7 if I'm not mistaken?

My take is that SIE primarily views Japan as a market of developers, which I think Jim Ryan's comments reflect:
"The Sony stance is that the Japanese market remains incredibly important to us. We have not been as excited about the engagement of the Japanese game development community as we are now for many years."

Japanese content has largely existed as a differentiator vs Xbox in the last generation and built a unique audience so that even multiplatform games skew heavily to PlayStation.

As a result the question to them is how much PlayStation can shrink before it affects their ability to have that exclusive content and the answer is probably quite a lot. Even when we're discussing the "inevitable" decline of PS5 vs PS4 we're only talking going from 9m+ to ~7-8m which won't be above to cause developers and publishers to drop the platform, especially when the platform is going to mega-successful outside of Japan.

I think there's an argument that they're possibly being too passive about it but I think the scenario where the platform completely collapses is unlikely.
 
Dec 8, 2018
1,911
But Japan was the second biggest market for the PS4 (after USA)

The PS4 did about the same numbers as the PS3 which was Sony biggest flop to date even with a far better (IMO) support of Japanese games. When Japan is not even 10% of your sales where and decreasing year by year at a rapid pace while selling better and better abroad instead it makes sense to not focus on that market.
 

Kaitos

Tens across the board!
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
14,790
I legit feel so proud of Pikmin 3? It's a fun game (I liked Pikmin 2 more, but), but it's nice to see a more B-tier franchise find life on the Switch.
 

Djehuty

Member
Sep 2, 2020
1,044
can pikmin 3 DX hit a million in japan with digital? i imagine it's halfway there already.
 
Jan 20, 2019
10,681
Ahh, I see what you mean but I'm not sure that's the case when you consider how heavily PlayStation is investing into single player experiences. The only GaaS games SIE has announced for PS5 are Destruction All Stars and GT7 if I'm not mistaken?

My take is that SIE primarily views Japan as a market of developers, which I think Jim Ryan's comments reflect:


Japanese content has largely existed as a differentiator vs Xbox in the last generation and built a unique audience so that even multiplatform games skew heavily to PlayStation.

As a result the question to them is how much PlayStation can shrink before it affects their ability to have that exclusive content and the answer is probably quite a lot. Even when we're discussing the "inevitable" decline of PS5 vs PS4 we're only talking going from 9m+ to ~7-8m which won't be above to cause developers and publishers to drop the platform, especially when the platform is going to mega-successful outside of Japan.

I think there's an argument that they're possibly being too passive about it but I think the scenario where the platform completely collapses is unlikely.

Sony gives a lot of freedmon to their developers that has help them a lot in sales of the console do to how agressive the bundle, it is easier to sell a console when you put 3 AAA titles with 90MC and 10M sales on a box for 300$, they made a bet and it paid off, the problem is that this titles dont do anything in Japan.

They have been touching the GAAS for a long time now with Naughty Dog games, GT and with GoT update, tough this is not realy a GAAS. Desctruction will be their first true GAAS game.

There is also rumor that Horizon 2 will have some sort of GAAS element to it.
 

DarkDetective

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,906
The Netherlands
1) Covid-impacted supply chain, everything that comes in sells out

2) very difficult comparison to 2019 which had Pokemon and Luigi's Mansion

3) Platform is in it'a fourth year and is likely nearing the stage in it's life cycle of market saturation, particularly in Japan, which is a shrinking market
1) Supply chains have been running since the summer. If Nintendo wanted, they could've produced more.
2) Demand is much higher than supply. If there were no supply constraints, then this year would've been much higher than last year.
3) That's bullshit.
 
Jun 12, 2018
499
I presume you mean without Japan. Surprised to see you in this thread after blaming it for doom and gloom around Sony. Nice that you are the arbiter of what Nintendo can and can't have. lol
I'm just here for the doom and gloom after ignoring these threads for about 6 months. It's the hot thing right now because Christmas.
 

ShiningBash

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,416
Nintendo can have JPN for itself. Sony is doing fine with JPN.
Sony is going to be fine without Japan console sales, but this is going to have a major impact on Japanese developers. For example, we know that PS4 Japan sales of Monster Hunter World were 20% of total sales for the base game and 34% of the Iceborne expansion.

That's going to be a big hit for Capcom if their largest market doesn't have an install base to sell games to.
 
Jun 12, 2018
499
Sony is going to be fine without Japan console sales, but this is going to have a major impact on Japanese developers. For example, we know that PS4 Japan sales of Monster Hunter World were 20% of total sales for the base game and 34% of the Iceborne expansion.

That's going to be a big hit for Capcom if their largest market doesn't have an install base to sell games to.
But Capcom is also selling games on PC. That's a growing market in Japan.