TSA/NMH3 only exist because Grasshopper split in 2, the GHM that developed those game is only 20-ish people (with outsourcing).
They also have received support from Nintendo. The physical versions of the games in US/Europe are produced and distributed by Nintendo.
MMV did TSA on PS4 themselves but so far NMH1&2 didn't follow alongside the PC version.
We can be reasonably confident NMH3 did better than 2 in the first week when we count digital sales.
NMH3 is strange to me. It decidedly has a Japanese feel to me, but I also feel it's a title that will be more popular in the West. Will be interesting to see how it sales overtime.
OT: now if Best Buy will ship my copy that was preordered in 2019.
OT: now if Best Buy will ship my copy that was preordered in 2019.
There are games that seem more aimed at Western otakus than Japanese.
"Power" is an incredibly dumb metric, sorry, I know some people must be choosing one Xbox over another because of that power, but most people don't really care - which is why they buy Switches.
As to returning Xbox fans, if you got numbers I'd like to see them. There are no used Xbox360 games at any of my nearby Geo and BookOff so unless you are already in that ecosystem, or go out of your way to locate old games, most probably don't care to spend the extra money for the more powerful disc-drive version.
DS (2007) VS 3DS (2012) VS Switch (2021)
Code:
|----|---------------------|---------------------|--------------------|
| | NDS | 3DS | Switch |
|----|----------|----------|----------|----------|---------|----------|
|Week| Weekly | 2007 | Weekly | 2012 | Weekly | 2021 |
|----|----------|----------|----------|----------|---------|----------|
| 01| 305.321| 305.321| 203.605| 203.605| 312.121| 312.121|
| 02| 107.892| 413.213| 257.377| 460.982| 167.596| 479.717|
| 03| 134.053| 547.266| 101.697| 562.679| 170.691| 650.408|
| 04| 190.540| 737.806| 77.519| 640.198| 110.811| 761.219|
| 05| 175.879| 913.685| 81.699| 721.897| 114.170| 875.389|
| 06| 165.458| 1.079.143| 69.180| 791.077| 88.485| 963.874|
| 07| 144.060| 1.223.203| 60.231| 851.308| 109.615| 1.073.489|
| 08| 134.626| 1.357.829| 88.909| 940.217| 74.298| 1.147.787|
| 09| 115.060| 1.472.889| 72.032| 1.012.249| 78.049| 1.225.836|
| 10| 103.546| 1.576.435| 71.797| 1.084.046| 89.927| 1.315.763|
| 11| 128.511| 1.704.946| 63.717| 1.147.763| 72.610| 1.388.373|
| 12| 159.498| 1.864.444| 63.746| 1.211.509| 89.104| 1.477.477|
| 13| 83.900| 1.948.344| 94.776| 1.306.285| 267.497| 1.744.974|
| 14| 118.774| 2.067.118| 118.072| 1.424.357| 135.076| 1.880.050|
| 15| 124.536| 2.191.654| 67.613| 1.491.970| 96.259| 1.976.309|
| 16| 158.189| 2.349.843| 62.653| 1.554.623| 94.057| 2.070.366|
| 17| 219.656| 2.569.499| 80.561| 1.635.184| 105.833| 2.176.199|
| 18| 219.291| 2.788.790| 71.282| 1.706.466| 165.268| 2.341.467|
| 19| 160.312| 2.949.102| 88.226| 1.794.692| 70.760| 2.412.227|
| 20| 112.309| 3.061.411| 45.063| 1.839.755| 95.411| 2.507.638|
| 21| 128.758| 3.190.169| 41.712| 1.881.467| 99.118| 2.606.756|
| 22| 117.013| 3.307.182| 51.840| 1.933.271| 71.148| 2.677.904|
| 23| 115.058| 3.422.240| 101.718| 2.034.989| 97.208| 2.775.112|
| 24| 136.393| 3.558.633| 61.212| 2.096.201| 78.317| 2.853.429|
| 25| 166.548| 3.725.181| 56.394| 2.152.595| 75.077| 2.928.506|
| 26| 153.983| 3.878.540| 66.953| 2.219.548| 72.951| 3.001.457|
| 27| 119.824| 3.998.364| 65.267| 2.284.815| 84.494| 3.085.951|
| 28| 135.946| 4.134.310| 51.930| 2.336.745| 69.283| 3.155.234|
| 29| 143.619| 4.277.929| 46.633| 2.383.378| 64.107| 3.219.341|
| 30| 164.481| 4.442.410| 44.202| 2.427.580| 69.738| 3.289.079|
| 31| 143.619| 4.586.066| 235.974| 2.663.554| 62.865| 3.351.944|
| 32| 153.983| 4.740.049| 118.786| 2.782.340| 72.773| 3.424.717|
| 33| 164.654| 4.904.703| 108.897| 2.891.237| 89.732| 3.514.449|
| 34| 116.506| 5.021.209| 107.140| 2.998.377| 72.527| 3.586.976|
| 35| 101.248| 5.122.457| 64.921| 3.063.298| 63.254| 3.650.230|
| 36| 78.980| 5.201.437| 67.926| 3.131.224| | |
| 37| 74.520| 5.275.957| 57.305| 3.188.529| | |
| 38| 66.121| 5.342.078| 56.970| 3.245.499| | |
| 39| 71.839| 5.413.917| 59.199| 3.304.698| | |
| 40| 76.560| 5.490.477| 77.183| 3.381.881| | |
| 41| 80.260| 5.570.737| 58.233| 3.440.114| | |
| 42| 77.810| 5.648.547| 78.401| 3.518.515| | |
| 43| 83.436| 5.731.983| 60.033| 3.578.548| | |
| 44| 80.272| 5.812.255| 60.079| 3.638.627| | |
| 45| 81.631| 5.893.886| 82.644| 3.721.271| | |
| 46| 80.827| 5.974.713| 168.662| 3.889.933| | |
| 47| 115.529| 6.090.242| 170.559| 4.060.492| | |
| 48| 126.347| 6.216.589| 158.527| 4.219.019| | |
| 49| 164.576| 6.381.165| 154.654| 4.373.673| | |
| 50| 248.670| 6.629.835| 219.103| 4.592.776| | |
| 51| 319.051| 6.948.886| 333.409| 4.926.185| | |
| 52| 194.816| 7.143.702| 433.788| 5.359.973| | |
| 53| | | 266.790| 5.626.763| | |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
The Xbox one did so badly in Japan it was basically impossible to do worse, the original Xbox did better than that thing lmao.
It's not dumb when it comes to such a niche fan base... we aren't talking about mainstream here. One can't compare millions to thousands.
I don't have numbers, I just see the tweets about it. But in such a small base, seeing 2k+ tweets about it represents quite a solid % already.
edit: also, there's a reason you can find series S almost everywhere, but X is almost impossible. Xbox buyers aren't the same as nintendo.
It apparently took around 2.5 year of development and the team was made up around 100 people. I know Japanese devs pay a lot less than American counterparts.. but with that in mind, a conservative estimate would be at least $15-20m in dev costs on manpower alone. There are tons of ancillary costs such as general overhead for running a business/rent and licensing fees, etc.
So the minimum the game would probably need to make in sales so that the project itself broke even would be $30m or around 500k copies at full price. That is just a break even for the project -- it doesn't take into account Nintendo's cut of every sale, businesses, etc. To be fully profitable as a project it would probably need to sell 1m copies. We don't know how what Marvelous pays them so it frankly would be next to impossible to determine what Grasshopper would need for it to be profitable on the development.
Think it needs to average just over 2,500 units a week to reach Xbox One LTD in time for the one-year launch anniversary. if it manages to stay above 2.5k a week it will hit the XB1 LTD a year after launch, which is quite the improvement. Still is way off OG Xbox and 360 though.
Side note: No More Heroes 3's budget is reportedly lower than several games Grasshopper has gotten to work with, presumably the Kadokawa ones (Lollipop Chainsaw and Killer Is Dead).
Costs of porting don't make your assessment a surefire thing. There's a very likely reason why Marvelous didn't put the NMH1/2 ports on PS4 after TSA failed to make a dent. If there's reason to assume the numbers won't make a big difference, they won't put the resources for it.
Costs of porting don't make your assessment a surefire thing. There's a very likely reason why Marvelous didn't put the NMH1/2 ports on PS4 after TSA failed to make a dent. If there's reason to assume the numbers won't make a big difference, they won't put the resources for it.
Has it been one year since nmh 1&2 yet? Maybe there is a one year exclusive or something
1 million copies to be profitable??
you have definitely no idea what you're talking about
Unlikely given that the PC ports of those had a similar exclusivity window to when TSA hit PS4/PC (6 months).
Wait are you talking about WW, and are you talking about just NMH? Because you would be wrong in a the above
TSA came to both PC/PS4 after ~6 months. NMH 1&2 are on PC(and Luna lol) already.
I'd imagine if Playstation ports were happening they would have been announced alongside the PC versions. Even those feel like they were only justified by the Amazon Luna money. There were several UI elements that were just lifted from the Switch versions.
It always kinda felt that way as a "Japanese" game for Western audiences by having all the wacky craziness people stereotypically expect from that, but also being set in the USA, starring an American Adult Otaku, and having a lot of the Japanese Pop Culture References being spelled out word-for-word for them (Such as Travis and Bishop having their Takashi Miike discussions in NMH3).
All the main games also focus on the English Voice Cast, in the case of NMH2 and NMH3 possibly being their only one.
I really doubt they developed a game needing to sell 1 million copies to break even. Even more on such a niche and poor seller series.
I've read that number as well, but isn't it more likely that the 100 people figure is the number of people who have worked on it at some point in time? Music composers typically don't work for the entire duration of development, for example, and staff size waxes and wanes as projects get to different milestones. The average number of employees over that 2.5 years is imo likely to have been significantly below that cited 100 number.
A game like NMH3 is probably not going to be viable if the limit to being profitable amounts to 1M copies sold. But I don't think they need that much personally, a couple of 100k should probably be enough (somewhere in the range of 300k-500k).
This is just back of the envelope estimates on a game with a staff of 100 that took 2.5 years to develop. Obviously this scales up and down depending on the team and the region. Games developed in America will cost exceedingly more to develop than any other region.
If a game costs $60, the publisher gets ~$42 and the console owner gets $18. They sell the game wholesale to a retailer for less than that so the retailer can make some money too. So they're probably around $35 a copy at that point. There are ancillary costs related to production and shipping, etc. which would bring their net to maybe something like $25-28 a copy.
Just using that estimate, at a very high level, a game that cost $28m to develop would need to sell 1m copies to be profitable as a project itself. This is completely disregarding added costs for marketing, etc. Show your math and explain how I'm wrong.
It's still weird that they cared enough to ported TSA to ps4 but not the first two games lol. Either they can't, or they deemed it not worth having the ports at all lol
OP
OP
Yeah no, we don't talk for Tales of Arise. You've made bombs almost everything that releases.
Your first mistake is assuming a developer team of 100 people means they were employing and paying 100 people for 2.5 years. This isn't how game development works.
The Wii version of 1 didn't have a JP dub either. Overall though, I think NMH1 did about 400k worldwide on Wii. I'd expect III would have to do similar to be a success, with NA and PAL doing the heavy lifting.
I don't think care is the right word. TSA was probably easier and cheaper due to being on UE4, so if it wasn't profitable enough to bring over more popular entries, that's pretty telling.
Edit: Actually Suda said Marvelous wanted PS4 versions of 1/2 and then they got the the TSA numbers.
Does this number include the "Killion Dollar Trilogy" box set? If it doesn't that might add a bit more. I have no idea how many they printed but it was totally sold out and to get mine I had to go to Amazon marketplace and pay 2000yen over retail. NMH3 did bad but when we get a top 30 it may prove to be a bit less terrible.
There's going to be some mismanagement if they expect a niche as hell game to make profit at a million copies. (read: most small games doesn't expect to reach 1 million to be profitable)
And considering this is the THIRD main entry of NMH. Marvelous should know at this point the budget and expectation a game like NMH should have. And whatever their bar is, it's definitely not 1 million copies.
And considering this is the THIRD main entry of NMH. Marvelous should know at this point the budget and expectation a game like NMH should have. And whatever their bar is, it's definitely not 1 million copies.
I was wondering about this earlier, but: since you live in Japan, do you know whether the Killion Dollar Trilogy bundle was available in store as well, alongside online retailers?
wait wait wait, are people suggesting NMH3 needs to sell one million to be profitable? Even big games don't usually sell that much.
Tsukihime surprised me. Great results. Also nice HW sales for all consoles.
NMH3 on the other hand did terribly (as expected).
You must be reading an alternate reality version of this thread (as usual), because literally no one said these numbers are ok.
Exactly.
My first impression is... This is going to be biggish. Multiplayer focus, lots of modes... Of course the game has to deliver, but so far it looks like the best in the series yet.
Wow this thread keeps delivering.
NMH3 on the other hand did terribly (as expected).
You must be reading an alternate reality version of this thread (as usual), because literally no one said these numbers are ok.
Exactly.
My first impression is... This is going to be biggish. Multiplayer focus, lots of modes... Of course the game has to deliver, but so far it looks like the best in the series yet.
Wow this thread keeps delivering.
This is back of the envelope math. It's not meant to be exactly representative of the actual development costs of this game. The costs I used were very conservative estimates though, realistically. Salary cost for manpower is going to be maybe 60% at most of the overall cost of operations of a business. Maybe this actually cost $20m to make all-in, maybe it cost $10m to make. Either way, if this thing sells say 100k copies, it will be developed at a loss to all involved. That much is an absolute stone-cold guarantee. If it sells 200k copies, it will almost certainly be at a loss.
Your math is entirely off because you have no idea how many people worked on this game for how long. The "stone-cold" reality is that the first NMH games sold between 300 and 600k, and those were very successful and profitable games for the studio and that no one in his right mind would greenlight a third game with the objective to sell over twice as many copies to break even. This is just stupid lmao
Do you think game development costs in 2019-2021 are the same as they were in 2005-2007? I would love to see your math at how much you expect this cost to make, with what we know of the team size (at its peak) and the duration of development, and what you think it would need to sell to be profitable for all parties involved. Show your math.
Not sure. I haven't been to game stores in a while (COVID is spiking again) so I ordered online. Either way, I think it would be tracked as a separate SKU. Just no idea how many were even printed. For the hardcore fans though, that the version to get. It wasn't even that much more than than NMH3 stand alone. 10,780円 for the trilogy and 7,480円 for NMH3. Cheaper then buying them from the eShop and you get physical.
I'm not going to further entertain this absolutely insane thought. Thinking a niche game with obviously extremely limited budget (as shown by the visuals and scope of the game) needs to sell a million units to turn a profit has derailed enough of the thread.