PSNow versus Game Pass? LOL, no. Sony's behind on the service model, which is where gaming is headed, as evidenced by Sony finally planning to bolster its anemic PSNow.
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But it's too late. Remember when Spotify was far behind iTunes? Not Apple as a whole, but iTunes specifically? Apple finally had to offer Apple Music as a streaming service to catch up. That was Spotify. Microsoft is bigger, already established in games, and moving first by a long way.
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Sony is only now cobbling together a defense against Game Pass, while Microsoft has made it a fundamental part of its gaming DNA. It likely has deals lined up for a year or more based on what's coming out. Add to that the fact Microsoft is about to deliver first party games on a scale never seen before by a platform holder, and they're all going to Game Pass day and date. They'll have more exclusives with higher metacritic scores simply by having multiple first party games and at least one tent pole release per quarter (and maybe more—judging by Forza and Halo).
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It's blindness not to see that Sony is going to get creamed—like might not be in gaming anymore in ten years creamed. I suspect part of the reason we don't get more acquisition announcements from Microsoft is specifically because Microsoft wants to strengthen its lead in tomorrow's gaming market.
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A COVID year is stretching to a COVID three years. If Sony could put out consoles at a rate to keep up with demand, they could strengthen their total console sales into an unstoppable lead, but they can't. Microsoft is also supply constrained, but—and stay with me here—their platform isn't. That means Xbox can continue growing even with console supply constraints. You can stream Xbox Series X|S exclusives to the Xbox One, to phones, to tablets, to Mac, and to PC.
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Add to that the fact that Sony first party exclusives have become unacceptably expensive in many parts of the world, where Xbox first party is available as a service in parts of the world where services aren't taxed the way digital sales are taxed, and the rate for the service is low compared to expensive sales. Do you not see it?
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Imagine this, then. Sushi restaurant A is the unequivocally best sushi restaurant in town. It offers some dishes and fishes you can't find anywhere else. It's delectable, but now it costs six times as much as…
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Sushi restaurant B. Sushi restaurant B doesn't have the absolute top epicurean foodie masterpieces (yet), but they offer really great food at a great price. It's such a low price that diners who hadn't before considered sushi are now interested in trying it. "What the hell? It's only $1 to try." Now there are more people eating sushi, and more of them are eating it at sushi restaurant B. Even fans of sushi restaurant A are trying restaurant B—after all, they've all got high end gaming sushi plates, and for only the one low price, sushi restaurant B will gladly fill that plate.
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Maybe you still have your big dates—birthdays, anniversaries, apology dinners—at sushi restaurant A, but more and more often, you're eating at sushi restaurant B.
A big post centered around a fantasy. The numbers don't agree with you. The projected numbers don't agree with you. This is reading just like those "mobile gaming is going to end consoles!" narrative.
Sony and Nintendo will absolutely be fine in ten years without a proper GamePass alternative. They will still be the most popular brands in gaming -- and no, it likely will not be close. Especially not with China's increasing gaming market and Sony's focus in the region.
Sony can't keep up with the demand yet already is breaking all their previous records -- the same company that launched the PS2 lol. Every earnings quarter, their numbers break industry records. Sony's market is growing regardless of Covid. The numbers show as much. More people are playing games and spending money on the PlayStation platform than any other point in history -- across ANY console EVER.
In 10 years, whatever the biggest brand in China is will be the ones running the industry. Everything else doesn't matter.