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pronk

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,652
I don't understand what Boris is trying to achieve. If he organises an election for after a no deal Brexit, then when everything goes to shit surely he'll lose terribly? Or is he hoping that if its on November 1st there won't be time for anything to go wrong?

I think the majority of Brexit voters also don't want no deal Brexit, so if he pushes that through in this way surely he's just fucking himself with everybody except the hardcore Brexit nutters?
 

Geoff

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,115
Johnson and Farage will be a powerful combination to a lot of the country, but at the same measure, induce horror in some of the electorate. The remain parties will have to be very careful- there's an opportunity for the Lib Dems to snatch the more moderate conservative voters, but that'll only go so far unless we get some election pacts for seats going on.

But I feel a lot of Labour supporters wouldn't vote LD even on a tactical basis, and vice versa, so we might just be fucked.
Exactly. Unless there is agreement not to stand against each other.
 

Deleted member 31104

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
2,572
I still can't see a BXP/Tory alliance. The personalities involved dislike and distrust each other too much, and I'm not sure Farage really wants to play second fiddle.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,343
Exactly. Unless there is agreement not to stand against each other.

My heart is wanting to believe that Corbyn can get a surge like he did last time, but my head is telling me that it'd have to be an incredible campaign, and Johnson is a very different opponent to May. The mudslinging is going to be unprecedented, hope we get an actual debate this time...
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,659
Hull, England
I'm worried for Scotland's future. These people will have no qualms closing down our parliament and even putting tanks back on the streets again.

I hope we get independence very soon. Fuck the state of English politics.
I have said it before and I'll say it again, I will miss Scotland being part of the union if you become independent, but with the way things are I say go for it if you get another chance.
 

MilesQ

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,490
25% of Hong Kong protested extradition changes.

HKers were willing to do what it takes. I'm not so sure many UK people are. It's easy to protest on a weekend, but will people march in in the tens of thousands every day? Will they stop the government from being able to function?

I don't see it ever happening. The UK will crash out, people will take to Twitter and Facebook to vent their anger and they'll slowly resign themselves to the new reality. Countries like the UK and US don't know how to protest anymore.
 

nelsonroyale

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,131
The last march had over a million people and still achieved nothing

Probably because it was just a march...better to use XR tactics to freeze London with a million people. that would be a whole other kettle of fish...Traditional marches are pretty ineffective yeah. We need to add some imagination to the mix.
 

Geoff

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,115
I still can't see a BXP/Tory alliance. The personalities involved dislike and distrust each other too much, and I'm not sure Farage really wants to play second fiddle.
Whilst I am sure Boris would prefer BXP to stand aside, even if they don't, their platform has been co-opted. Why would you vote for BXP if the Tories are promising you no-deal anyway?
 

MilesQ

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,490
I'm worried for Scotland's future. These people will have no qualms closing down our parliament and even putting tanks back on the streets again.

I hope we get independence very soon. Fuck the state of English politics.

You need the current government's permission and I don't see that coming anytime soon.

These people are willing to sacrifice Ireland, they don't care about Scotland or Wales.
 

Deleted member 31104

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
2,572
Whilst I am sure Boris would prefer BXP to stand aside, even if they don't, their platform has been co-opted. Why would you vote for BXP if the Tories are promising you no-deal anyway?

Because a significant proportion of the BXP vote won't vote Tory for tribal reasons. The Tories co-opted UKIP's platform at points but UKIP still was a geographical anchor.
 

plagiarize

It's not a loop. It's a spiral.
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
27,586
Cape Cod, MA
I don't understand what Boris is trying to achieve. If he organises an election for after a no deal Brexit, then when everything goes to shit surely he'll lose terribly? Or is he hoping that if its on November 1st there won't be time for anything to go wrong?

I think the majority of Brexit voters also don't want no deal Brexit, so if he pushes that through in this way surely he's just fucking himself with everybody except the hardcore Brexit nutters?
The calculus is this:

Winning back the support of everyone who is currently supporting the Brexit party will be enough to offset anyone they'd lose. Most people expect that no matter what there'll be *some* form of interruptions or shortages for at least a brief period after any form of Brexit, so they likely won't stop losing those supporters right away.

Is it the right strategy? Hard to say. But does it give him a better chance than a year later? or two years or whatever? Most probably.
 

Koukalaka

Member
Oct 28, 2017
9,331
Scotland
I'm worried for Scotland's future. These people will have no qualms closing down our parliament and even putting tanks back on the streets again.

I hope we get independence very soon. Fuck the state of English politics.

Well Scottish cops are first in line to get sent to NI in the event of any No Deal chaos, so yeah.

The genius plan of sending mostly unarmed police officers into potentially dangerous situations involving paramilitary groups, and whose presence will likely inflame things further.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,261
HKers were willing to do what it takes. I'm not so sure many UK people are. It's easy to protest on a weekend, but will people march in in the tens of thousands every day? Will they stop the government from being able to function?

I don't see it ever happening. The UK will crash out, people will take to Twitter and Facebook to vent their anger and they'll slowly resign themselves to the new reality. Countries like the UK and US don't know how to protest anymore.

A march is a different kettle of fish to say, civil disobedience and a general strike.
 

koiwai

Member
Jan 10, 2018
96
I like how so many people are making a huge thing out of nothing - it was pretty obvious for a long time now that from the British side a no-deal was going to happen (too much difference between parties). The only hope was that the EU would meet them half-way and make a deal - but the EU is quite arrogant too.

This is just like all that 'doom hype' back when the vote to leave EU happened. Life will go on, there will be a few tough months whilst things get sorted out, but ultimately things will go back to how they were. London isn't going to lose it's Financial hub of the world status just because it's leaving the EU, and anyone who says so just plain doesn't understand how the world works tbh.

I left in 2015 and even back then there were a lot of people not happy with the EU (though I was in the Midlands, not London).

Edit: Not a British citizen, I could be wrong - can't believe I have to state it implicitly, but these are my personal views only.
Not to be snarky but there'll be more than just a "tough few months" in Ulster if no deal happens
 

Geoff

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,115
Because a significant proportion of the BXP vote won't vote Tory for tribal reasons. The Tories co-opted UKIP's platform at points but UKIP still was a geographical anchor.

I wouldn't have said that's a significant proportion but only time will tell. Put it this way, Boris wouldn't be smashing pell mell towards an election if he thought he was going to be out on his ear.
 

Minky

Verified
Oct 27, 2017
481
UK
#GeneralStrike now trending on Twitter. Good job Bojo. If he wants civil unrest he will fucking well get it.
 

Deleted member 31104

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
2,572
I wouldn't have said that's a significant proportion but only time will tell. Put it this way, Boris wouldn't be smashing pell mell towards an election if he thought he was going to be out on his ear.

Polling puts it about 35% of BXP support, but a lot of that is concentrated in places where the Tories would need to win to offset the losses to the Lib Dems.
 

pronk

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,652
Twitter is refusing to work for me for some reason, but the BBC live news (don't read the horribly pro-brexit BBC News) has a link to a YouGov poll that shows about a third of leavers oppose prorogation, and a similar percentage of tory voters. Surely this will have a huge impact on them? I just can't see this working out based on the polls about no deal and prorogorogorogoration.
 

plagiarize

It's not a loop. It's a spiral.
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
27,586
Cape Cod, MA
Feels like Bojo was hired just to ensure no deal Brexit.
Bojo only cares about staying in power. There's no norm he won't shit all over to ensure that happens and no position he wouldn't throw out the window either. If tomorrow, the polls somehow showed him that his best chance of staying in power was to withdraw article 50, he would.
 

Deleted member 34788

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 29, 2017
3,545
Portsmouth...I'm not sure what you are referring to here? The local elections?

Yep, edited that one. No, it was the by election.

I still can't see a BXP/Tory alliance. The personalities involved dislike and distrust each other too much, and I'm not sure Farage really wants to play second fiddle.


There wont be one. The egos alone guarantee disaster for that option. They you have the Scottish tories who would scream bloody murder if Bojo ever thought an alliance would be a good idea. They are already facing a high chance of being wiped out in Scotland.

Farage isn't interested in playing second fiddle to Tories. He had enough of that when he had UKIP. Bxp are seeking to replace the tories wholesale, and are more then happy playing wrecking ball party to the tories to get where they want. BXP has likely also priced in failure to unsurp the cons at the next ge, they rather play the long game and get them in 5-10 years time. They have enough dark money funding.

His comments yesterday add to this. He knows full well no deal is no deal, but he will campaign on his version being the true version of it. Batshit insane, sure, but these are the times.
 

Dirtyshubb

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,555
UK
How about instead of getting rid of the Royal Family we decommission Trident. Something that has cost this country billions upon billions of pounds, far more than the Royal Family ever has in modern times.

People need a sense of perspective.
Why not both?

Im not sure why im apparently not able to be against both ideas. And for the Royals, this isnt just a one off payment we will be saving but generations of spending that would be reduced.

Maybe you need to get some perspective?